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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error source—global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗

Indirect Dark Matter Searches at Ultrahigh Energy Neutrino Detectors

High to ultrahigh energy neutrino detectors can uniquely probe the properties of dark matterχby searching for the secondary products produced through annihilation and/or decay processes. We evaluate the sensitivities to dark matter thermally averaged annihilation cross section〈σv〉and partial decay width into neutrinos Γ χ→ν ̄ν (in the mass scale 10 7 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 15 ) for next generation observatories like POEMMA and GRAND. We show that in the range 10 7 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 11 , space-based Cherenkov detectors like POEMMA have the advantage of full-sky coverage and rapid slewing, enabling an optimized dark matter observation strategy focusing on the Galactic center. We also show that ground-based radio detectors such as GRAND can achieve high sensitivities and high duty cycles in radio quiet areas. We compare the sensitivities of next generation neutrino experiments with existing constraints from IceCube and updated 90% C.L. upper limits on〈σv〉and Γ χ→ν ̄ν using results from the Pierre Auger Collaboration and ANITA. We show that in the range 10 7 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 11 POEMMA and GRAND10k will improve the neutrino sensitivity to particle dark matter by factors of 2 to 10 over existing limits, whereas GRAND200k will improve this sensitivity by two orders of magnitude. In the range 10 11 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 15 , POEMMA’s fluorescence observation mode will achieve an unprecedented sensitivity to dark matter properties. Finally, we highlight the importance of the uncertainties related to the dark matter distribution in the Galactic halo, using the latest fit and estimates of the Galactic parameters.

Particle astrophysics↗

Optimal Communication Topology Construction and Sensor Selection for Independent Airspace Surveillance

The paper presents an approach with no estimation feedback to sensors selection and communication network topology computation for independent airspace surveillance with maximum outcome and minimum cost using ground based distributed sensing, computing and communication network infrastructure. The selection criteria includes maximum airspace coverage with minimal resources, minimum communication time and power consumption while guaranteeing the system observability and providing in-time high quality information to both stationary and mobile users. The developed algorithms use multi-objective optimization strategy taking into account trade-offs between conflicting objectives and are implemented using off-the-shelf computational tools. The algorithms are validated in a desktop simulation environment using synthetic sensors data generated for a simulated multi-vehicle flight scenario in the selected regional airspace and parameters of a notional wireless communication network.

Distributed sensing↗

Measurement of Delayed Neutron Group Parameters Using the Fission Burst of CFBR-II

Delayed neutron group parameters are vitally important to estimate the reactivity in reactor operation. By now, a large amount of out-of-pile and in-pile experimental techniques have been developed to measure the values of the few-group parameters. Keepin's six-group data are widely used and have been proved to be one of the most appropriate datasets for many reactors, so as for the Chinese Fast Burst Reactor-II(CFBR-II). However, it was found that there was an overestimated reactivity of approximately 0.02$ using Keepin's dataset in our validation experiments, which may be problematic for experiments with the requirement of higher accuracy, and a more suitable set of delayed neutron parameters is needed for CFBR-II. As intensive delayed neutron precursors will be generated during a fission burst, the leakage neutron decay of CFBR-II right after the fission spike was measured to determine the decayed neutron parameters of the CFBR-II assembly, and hopefully the data can be used in the precise determination of the reactor reactivity in the future.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Assessment on Transport of Radioactive Species from Nuclear Facilities - 17079

It is generally recognized that radioactive nuclides are most hazardous fission products that could be released in the event of reactor accidents. The reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) nuclear plant exhibits radioactivity from various sources. These radiation sources consist of the fission products from fuel element and activated products from corrosion products. The complex infrastructure of the processes does not allow detailed measurement of activity until after the reactor is shutdown. All of the components that require dismantling will be radioactive which was caused by neutron activation during operation, contamination by corrosion products, contamination by damaged by fuel rods and leaks by equipment. Due mainly to the various operation modes and their aging, there are the increasing needs to carry out repair works that are not sufficiently provided for by the original design. Many difficulties are involved in these tasks, namely, high radiation doses, cramped areas, hard to reach components, coupled with stringent quality conditions. The need to simulate the behavior of corrosion products in a nuclear power plant environment has attracted many researchers' attention. It has performed the in-depth reviews of the various theories and physics associated with the corrosion products transportation, the laboratory loop testing, and the field measurements in operating plants. Before we start the decommissioning of nuclear power plants, workers, the public and the environment shall be properly protected from radiation hazards. For this purpose, a safety assessment should be carried out relating to the potential hazards that may occur during the decommissioning. The radiological hazards involved in the decommissioning activities also should be identified, and be taken into account in the safety assessment. The radiation conditions of the primary circuit are determined by the activity of corrosion and fission products that have accumulated on the internal surfaces of the components. Therefore the estimation of contamination on the components is very important and, may be the first step in the reactor operation and decommissioning of components. The predominant radionuclide in the PWR primary coolant is Co-60, although Co-58 contributes significantly to radioactivity level at the early stage of a reactor operation. Since Co-60 is produced from the in-core Co-58, which is the source of cobalt in a reactor coolant system, many researchers have investigated its transmutation in the core, its transport around the system, and its subsequent deposition on surfaces. The major parameter influencing the behavior of radioactivity, such as Co-60 in the coolant, is the corrosion product oxides. The objective of this work is to analyze the corrosion product activity transported in the primary circuit by using a multi-region model. This model, which is incorporated with the mass and activity transport between the dissolved corrosion products in the coolant and the surface, describes the specific activity of corrosion products in coolant and on the surfaces according to the operation modes as well as decommissioning stage. In order to evaluate the analysis of the corrosion products in an integral type reactor, a multi-region mass balance model is applied. The specific activities of the various species on the surface of core and steam generator throughout the effective full power hours, 15,000 hours, are simulated for the various modes of operations. As a result, the specific activities of corrosion products from the surface of primary circuit were shown as very low compared to those of other commercial nuclear power plants. In this simulated reactor, a significant reduction of specific activities from the activated corrosion products is obtained due to the introduction of titanium alloy to the steam generator tube and the avoidance of boric acid induced corrosion. From this result we conclude that we are able to predict the level of radioactive nuclides generated by corrosion products in a primary circuit according to the various modes of operations by using multi-region model. In this point of view it is concluded that this multi-region model can be used as an engineering tool for analysis of the corrosion products within the primary coolant for the nuclear power plants. It is also considered that it is possible to extend to a calculation tool for estimating the radiological hazards involved in the decommissioning activities in terms of safety assessment. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Optimum exhaust velocity for laser-driven rockets

The laser-driven rocket in which remotely generated laser power is used to heat propellant belongs basically to the class of specific-impulse limited propulsion systems if difficult missions are considered. It was previously established that trip time reaches a minimum as specific impulse is varied for payload transfers from low earth orbit to synchronous orbit and return via laser-driven rocket propulsion, the computations being based on the perigee-propulsion laser drive described by Minovitch (1972). The present study shows that such minimum occur for all missions and that optimum specific impulse is primarily determined by the mission difficulty. More generally, this optimum specific impulse maximizes payload kinetic energy achievable with a fixed jet power and propulsion time. A formula relating propulsion time parameter to payload ratio is obtained for estimating mission capabilities of laser-driven rockets.

Moeckel, W. E.↗

Scalable multiphoton quantum metrology with neither pre- nor post-selected measurements

The quantum statistical fluctuations of electromagnetic fields establish a limit, known as the shot-noise limit, on the sensitivity of optical measurements performed with classical technologies. However, quantum technologies are not constrained by this shot-noise limit. In this regard, the possibility of using every photon produced by quantum sources of light to estimate small physical parameters, beyond the shot-noise limit, constitutes one of the main goals of quantum optics. Here, we experimentally demonstrate a scalable protocol for quantum-enhanced optical phase estimation across a broad range of phases, with neither pre- nor post-selected measurements. This is achieved through the efficient design of a source of spontaneous parametric downconversion in combination with photon-number-resolving detection. The robustness of two-mode squeezed vacuum states against loss allows us to outperform schemes based on N00N states, in which the loss of a single photon is enough to remove all phase information from a quantum state. In contrast to other schemes that rely on N00N states or conditional measurements, the sensitivity of our technique could be improved through the generation and detection of high-order photon pairs. This unique feature of our protocol makes it scalable. Furthermore, our work is important for quantum technologies that rely on multiphoton interference such as quantum imaging, boson sampling, and quantum networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Fourteenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey and from the Second Phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment

The fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) has been in operation since July 2014. This paper describes the second data release from this phase, and the fourteenth from SDSS overall (making this, Data Release Fourteen or DR14). This release makes public data taken by SDSS-IV in its rst two years of operation (July 2014{2016). Like all previous SDSS releases, DR14 is cumulative, including the most recent reductions and calibrations of all data taken by SDSS since the rst phase began operations in 2000. New in DR14 is the rst public release of data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Sky Survey (eBOSS); the rst data from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory (APO) Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2), including stellar parameter estimates from an innovative data driven machine learning algorithm known as The Cannon; and almost twice as many data cubes from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) survey as were in the previous release (N = 2812 in total). This paper describes the location and format of the publicly available data from SDSS-IV surveys. We provide references to the important technical papers describing how these data have been taken (both targeting and observation details) and processed for scienti c use. The SDSS website (www.sdss.org) has been updated for this release, and provides links to data downloads, as well as tutorials and examples of data use. SDSS-IV is planning to continue to collect astronomical data until 2020.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mars-GRAM Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

An overview is presented of the Mars-Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) and its new features. One important new feature is the "auxiliary profile" option, whereby a simple input file is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) for three candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites (Terby Crater, Melas Chasma, and Gale Crater). A global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database has also been generated for purposes of making 'Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude bins and 15 degree L(sub S) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Comparisons show reasonably good consistency between Mars-GRAM with low dust optical depth and both TES observed and mesoscale model simulated density at the three study sites. Mean winds differ by a more significant degree. Comparisons of mesoscale and TES standard deviations' with conventional Mars-GRAM values, show that Mars-GRAM density perturbations are somewhat conservative (larger than observed variability), while mesoscale-modeled wind variations are larger than Mars-GRAM model estimates. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Justh, Hilary↗

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗

Derivation of WECC Distributed PV System Model Parameters from Quasi-Static Time-Series Distribution System Simulations

The response of low voltage networks with high penetration of PV systems to transmission network faults will, in the future, determine the overall power system performance during certain hours of the year. The WECC distributed PV system model (PVD1) is designed to represent small-scale distribution-connected systems. Although default values are provided by WECC for the model parameters, tuning of those parameters seems to become important in order to accurately estimate the partial loss of distributed PV systems for bulk system studies. The objective of this paper is to describe a new methodology to determine the WECC distributed PV system (PVD1) model parameters and to derive parameter sets obtained for six distribution circuits of a Californian investor-owned utility with large amounts of distributed PV systems. The results indicate that the parameters for the partial loss of distributed PV systems may differ significantly from the default values provided by WECC.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Turbulence-induced bias in time-averaged laser absorption tomography of correlated concentration and temperature fields with a first-order correction

The influence of correlated scalar fluctuations on time-averaged laser absorption tomography measurements of temperature and species in a piloted turbulent premixed flame was examined using a coupled spectroscopic and fluid-dynamic analysis. To understand bias associated with turbulence, spatio-temporally resolved temperature and species mole fraction profiles predicted by large eddy simulations (LES) were used to synthetically generate time-resolved line-of-sight absorption measurements at short time scales (microsecond) to reflect the unsteady nature of a canonical jet burner across various transverse measurement planes. Inversion methods were employed on the time-averaged line-of-sight data to produce radially-resolved temperature and mole fraction profiles, analogous to those produced by laser absorption tomography performed on a time-averaged axisymmetric flowfield. It is shown that bias in the measurements compared to true time-averaged scalar fields is a function primarily of temperature dependence in absorptivity and non-zero correlation between temperature and species concentration scalars. Finally, a first-order correction to tomography measurements is proposed to account for the bias based on estimated correlations and the known spectroscopic parameters of the probed absorption transitions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Method and System for Temporal Filtering in Video Compression Systems

Three related innovations combine improved non-linear motion estimation, video coding, and video compression. The first system comprises a method in which side information is generated using an adaptive, non-linear motion model. This method enables extrapolating and interpolating a visual signal, including determining the first motion vector between the first pixel position in a first image to a second pixel position in a second image; determining a second motion vector between the second pixel position in the second image and a third pixel position in a third image; determining a third motion vector between the first pixel position in the first image and the second pixel position in the second image, the second pixel position in the second image, and the third pixel position in the third image using a non-linear model; and determining a position of the fourth pixel in a fourth image based upon the third motion vector. For the video compression element, the video encoder has low computational complexity and high compression efficiency. The disclosed system comprises a video encoder and a decoder. The encoder converts the source frame into a space-frequency representation, estimates the conditional statistics of at least one vector of space-frequency coefficients with similar frequencies, and is conditioned on previously encoded data. It estimates an encoding rate based on the conditional statistics and applies a Slepian-Wolf code with the computed encoding rate. The method for decoding includes generating a side-information vector of frequency coefficients based on previously decoded source data and encoder statistics and previous reconstructions of the source frequency vector. It also performs Slepian-Wolf decoding of a source frequency vector based on the generated side-information and the Slepian-Wolf code bits. The video coding element includes receiving a first reference frame having a first pixel value at a first pixel position, a second reference frame having a second pixel value at a second pixel position, and a third reference frame having a third pixel value at a third pixel position. It determines a first motion vector between the first pixel position and the second pixel position, a second motion vector between the second pixel position and the third pixel position, and a fourth pixel value for a fourth frame based upon a linear or nonlinear combination of the first pixel value, the second pixel value, and the third pixel value. A stationary filtering process determines the estimated pixel values. The parameters of the filter may be predetermined constants.

Lu, Ligang↗

TRIPOLI-4{sup R} version 9 Shielding for the Shielding Community: Overview, Relevant Benchmarking for Shielding and Licensing Policy - Paper 49

This is a review paper of the Shielding only version of TRIPOLI-4. TRIPOLI-4 and TRIPOLI-4 S: TRIPOLI{sup R} represents a family of radiation transport codes using the Monte Carlo method (1,2). It has been continuously developed at CEA since the mid 60's. TRIPOLI-4{sup R}, being the fourth generation, has been developed starting from the mid 90's in C++. It tracks neutrons from 20 MeV down to 10{sup -5} eV, photons, electrons and positrons from 100 MeV to 1 keV, in 3D arbitrary geometries either in TRIPOLI{sup R} proprietary format or ROOT(4) format. It reads its continuous energy nuclear data from any evaluation in ENDF format, including but not limited to JEFF-3.1.1 and ENDF/BVII.0. It has various simulation modes, fixed-source (with or without fission), criticality, or both of them chained. A variety of tallies are available: averaged flux in a volume (track length and collision estimators), surface flux and current, point flux, reaction rates, deposited energy, dpa, pka, gamma spectroscopy, mesh tallies, tallies for criticality (k{sub eff}, beta eff, kinetic parameters). It provides the user with embedded response functions from IRDF and EAF as well. Several variance reduction techniques (3), including automated ones, make it particularly suitable to deep penetration problems (implicit capture, Russian roulette, exponential biasing with automatic estimation of the importance map). It may run in parallel, on single multi-core machines as well as heterogeneous networks of stations or massively parallel machines. It comes with productivity tools designed to speed-up the elaboration and verification of the input deck as well as the output analysis: 2D interactive display of geometry; 2D display of mesh tallies and collision sites; 3D input deck modeler; compatibility with ROOT tools to post-process TRIPOLI{sup R} outputs. Its V and V test base is made of more than 1000 internationally accepted benchmarks from ICSBEP and SINBAD (REPLICA, ASPIS, NESDIP) and covers all its application domains, including several shielding cases which will be detailed in the talk. TRIPOLI-4{sup R} is the reference Monte Carlo code for CEA, EDF, and also for AREVA for a number of applications. A 'Shielding-only' version has been designed to specifically answer the needs of the shielding community. It is distributed through the NEA Databank with a license for R and D, covering the fusion applications, whose terms are detailed in the paper.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Photoevaporation of Clumps in Photodissociation Regions

We present the results of an investigation of the effects of Far Ultraviolet (FUV) radiation (6.0eV < hv < 13.6eV) from hot early type OB stars on clumps in star-forming molecular clouds. Clumps in FUV-illuminated regions (or photodissociation regions or PDRs) undergo external heating and photodissociation as they are exposed to the FUV field, resulting in a loss of cold, molecular lump mass as it is converted to warm atomic gas. The heating, if rapid, creates strong photoevaporative mass flows off the clump surfaces, and drives shocks into the clumps, compressing them to high densities. The clumps lose mass on relatively short timescales. The evolution of an individual clump is found to be sensitive to three dimensionless parameters: Nc0, the ratio of the initial column density of the clump to the column N(0) approx. 10(exp 21) cm(exp -2) of a warm FUV-heated surface region; upsilon, the ratio of the sound speed in the heated surface to that in the cold clump material: and t(FUV)t(c), the ratio of the "turn-on time" t(FUV) of the heating flux on a clump to its initial sound crossing-time t(c). The evolution also depends on whether a confining interclump medium exists, or whether the interclump region has negligible pressure, as is the case for turbulence-generated clumps. In this paper, we use spherical 1-D numerical hydrodynamic models as well as approximate analytical models to study the dependence of clump photoevaporation on the physical parameters of the clump, and to derive the dynamical evolution, mass loss rates and photoevaporative timescales of a clump for a variety of astrophysical situations. Turbulent clumps evolve so that their column densities are equal to a critical value determined by the local FUV field, and typically have short photo evaporation timescales, approx. 10(exp 4-5) years for a 1 M(solar mass) clump in a typical star-forming region (Nc0 = 10, upsilon = 10). Clumps with insufficient magnetic pressure support, and in strong FUV fields may be driven to collapse by the compressional effect of converging shock waves. We also estimate the rocket effect on photoevaporating clumps and find that it is significant only for the smallest clumps, with sizes much less than the extent of the PDR itself. Clumps that are confined by all interclump medium may either get completely photoevaporated, or may preserve a shielded core with a warm, dissociated, protective shell that, absorbs the incident FUV flux. We compare our results with observations of some well studied PDRs: the Orion Bar, M17SW NGC 2023 and the Rosette Nebula. The data are consistent with both interpretations of clump origin. turbulence and pressure confinement, with a slight indication for favouring the turbulent model for clumps over pressure-confined

Gorti, Uma↗

Investigation of Heterogeneity Effects on Calculated Sensitivities of the ZPPR-15B Assemblies

In past years, sensitivity studies of ZPR and ZPPR assemblies were carried out with deterministic codes for several purposes, such as uncertainty estimation of calculated parameter values, cross section adjustment, representativity analysis. etc. However, these sensitivity studies used simplified R-Z models of ZPR/ZPPR assemblies where the multi-group cross section data was obtained from the homogenized material compositions of each reactor zone. The main reason for this simplification was the lack of a deterministic path able to compute sensitivity coefficients for complicated 3D geometries in transport theory. Also, each ZPR and ZPPR assembly consists of several different drawers each containing different plate types and plate arrangements and it was felt that performing sensitivity calculations with an equivalent R-Z reactor model would capture most of the feedback while the heterogeneity effects were believed to be of second order. Recently a new code, BuildZPRModel, was developed at ANL that automatically generates the inputs for cross section processing and core calculation of heterogeneous ZPR and ZPPR assemblies for 3D transport calculations. Additionally, the PERSENT code (recently developed at ANL as well) is able to carry out sensitivity calculations in transport theory on 3D geometries. With the benefit of the newly developed codes, a sensitivity study was performed for the heterogeneous model of ZPPR-15B assemblies 96 and 102 generated by BuildZPRModel. The results were compared with the sensitivities computed with the use of fully homogenized R-Z reactor models, in order to quantify the impact of heterogeneity effects neglected in the analysis performed in past years.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗