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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Surface parameters and bedrock properties covary across a mountainous watershed: Insights from machine learning and geophysics

Bedrock property quantification is critical for predicting the hydrological response of watersheds to climate disturbances. Estimating bedrock hydraulic properties over watershed scales is inherently difficult, particularly in fracture-dominated regions. Our analysis tests the covariability of above- and belowground features on a watershed scale, by linking borehole geophysical data, near-surface geophysics, and remote sensing data. We use machine learning to quantify the relationships between bedrock geophysical/hydrological properties and geomorphological/vegetation indices and show that machine learning relationships can estimate most of their covariability. Although we can predict the electrical resistivity variation across the watershed, regions of lower variability in the input parameters are shown to provide better estimates, indicating a limitation of commonly applied geomorphological models. Our results emphasize that such an integrated approach can be used to derive detailed bedrock characteristics, allowing for identification of small-scale variations across an entire watershed that may be critical to assess the impact of disturbances on hydrological systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Alternating Direction Decomposition with Strong Bounding and Convexification (ADDSBC) for Solving Security Constrained AC Unit Commitment Problems

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained unit commitment and alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-UC-ACOPF). The SC-UC-ACOPF problem is at the center of the short-term operation of the U.S. Power Grid. It is solved every week, every day, and every 10 minutes to plan for the optimal action of electricity generation and consumption by minimizing the generation cost and maintaining power system reliability against potential disruptions of equipment failures. In mathematical terms, SC-UC-ACOPF is a challenging large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model. This means that the decisions involve both discrete variables, e.g. the turning on and off of generators and switching of transmission lines and transformers, and continuous decisions, e.g. the amount of energy generated by each generator and the power flows in the power grid. The physics of the power flow is described by nonlinear equations involving real and reactive power and bus voltages. Another key feature is the large number of contingencies, i.e. the system needs to stay reliable in face of failure of any one equipment, such as transmission lines and generators. The U.S. power grids are extremely complicated and large scale with more than 5,000 generators, 50,000 buses, and 100,000 high-voltage transmission lines, making the SC-UC-ACOPF a very large-scale computation challenge. The research developed in this project aims to solve the SC-UC-ACOPF problems in the three timescales, i.e. weekly, daily, and every 10-min. The proposed computational methods are built on a principled algorithmic approach of decomposition and penalization. More specifically, the algorithm develops spatial and temporal decomposition by exploiting the strong temporal coupling and weak spatial coupling of the UC problem and the complementary feature, i.e. weak temporal coupling and strong spatial coupling of the ACOPF problem. The algorithm also leverages recent progresses in strong convex relaxation of ACOPF. A unique feature of the proposed approach is that it generates a valid, global upper bound on the optimal maximum profit. In this way, a global optimality gap is available to measure the quality of the solution. To further speed up computation, the research team has developed a plethora of effective heuristics to strengthen the iterative penalty-based decomposition framework. For instance, a heuristic is developed to construct inner approximations of the time coupling constraints within the time decoupled problems. Contingencies are pre-screened and low-rank matrix computation is exploited to find the almost unique solution to each contingency. A novel heuristic for line switching is proposed and tested with positive impacts on instances where line switching is beneficial. Taking a systematic approach and carefully handling every detail of the problem pays off. The TIM-GO’s performance throughout the trials and the final event was stellar. TIM-GO garnered the second highest total prize money and is ranked in the top three positions across all categories of comparison.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Image Analysis for Rapid Assessment and Quality-Based Sorting of Corn Stover

Imaging in the visible spectrum is a low-cost tool that can be readily deployed for in-field or over-belt monitoring of biomass quality for bio-refining operations. Rapid image analysis coupled with innovative preprocessing may reduce the impacts of feedstock variability through identification of contaminants or other material attributes to guide selective sorting and quality management. Image analysis was employed to evaluate the quality of corn stover in red-green-blue (RGB) chromatic space. This study used controlled, bench-scale imaging as a proof-of-concept for rapid quality assessment of corn stover based on variations in material attributes, including chemical and physical attributes, that relate to biological degradation and soil contamination. Additionally, logistic regression-based classification algorithms were used to develop a method for biomass screening as a function of biological degradation or soil contamination. This study demonstrated the use of image analysis to extract features from RGB color space to investigate variations in critical material attributes from chemical composition of corn stover. Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) suggested a correlation between red band intensity and biological degradation, while detailed surface texture analysis was found to distinguish among variations in ash. These insights offer promise for development of a rapid screening tool that could be deployed by farmers for in-field assessment of biomass quality or biorefinery operators for in-line sorting and process optimization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Quantitative Insight to Fission Gas Pores Distribution in Irradiated Annular U-10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning

Metallic fuels, particularly U-10Zr and its performance in reactor irradiation conditions, have been thoroughly investigated and are a promising candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast spectrum nuclear reactors. Irradiation in reactors can lead to the formation of fission gas and increased pore formation which can significantly impact fuel performance. Due to the large number of pores and various phases formed in metallic fuel during irradiation, a quantitative description of fission gas pores as a function of irradiation conditions is not yet available, undermining the fidelity of fuel performance modeling to support fuel qualification. It has been difficult to clearly detect pore boundaries and distinguish matrix phases from fission gas pores using optical microscopy by using simple threshold methods working with low magnification images. The pre-trained deep learning model for fission gas pore detection was applied to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. The model increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation to obtain statistical features, which cannot be processed manually. A pre-trained decision tree model was used to classify pores as isolated or connected pores, providing new insight into the correlation between the movement of lanthanides, solid fission products, and the radial temperature gradient developed in fuel irradiation conditions. This paper emphasizes the potential that artificial intelligence-based machine learning models have to accelerate qualification and support nuclear fuel development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tetraether archaeal lipids promote long‐term survival in extreme conditions

Abstract The sole unifying feature of the incredibly diverse Archaea is their isoprenoid‐based ether‐linked lipid membranes. Unique lipid membrane composition, including an abundance of membrane‐spanning tetraether lipids, impart resistance to extreme conditions. Many questions remain, however, regarding the synthesis and modification of tetraether lipids and how dynamic changes to archaeal lipid membrane composition support hyperthermophily. Tetraether membranes, termed glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), are generated by tetraether synthase (Tes) by joining the tails of two bilayer lipids known as archaeol. GDGTs are often further specialized through the addition of cyclopentane rings by GDGT ring synthase (Grs). A positive correlation between relative GDGT abundance and entry into stationary phase growth has been observed, but the physiological impact of inhibiting GDGT synthesis has not previously been reported. Here, we demonstrate that the model hyperthermophile Thermococcus kodakarensis remains viable when Tes (TK2145) or Grs (TK0167) are deleted, permitting phenotypic and lipid analyses at different temperatures. The absence of cyclopentane rings in GDGTs does not impact growth in T. kodakarensis , but an overabundance of rings due to ectopic Grs expression is highly fitness negative at supra‐optimal temperatures. In contrast, deletion of Tes resulted in the loss of all GDGTs, cyclization of archaeol, and loss of viability upon transition to the stationary phase in this model archaea. These results demonstrate the critical roles of highly specialized, dynamic, isoprenoid‐based lipid membranes for archaeal survival at high temperatures.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Understanding HPC Benchmark Performance on Intel Broadwell and Cascade Lake Processors

Hardware platforms in high performance computing are constantly getting more complex to handle even when considering multicore CPUs alone. Numerous features and configuration options in the hardware and the software environment that are relevant for performance are not even known to most application users or developers. Microbenchmarks, i.e., simple codes that fathom a particular aspect of the hardware, can help to shed light on such issues, but only if they are well understood and if the results can be reconciled with known facts or performance models. The insight gained from microbenchmarks may then be applied to real applications for performance analysis or optimization. In this paper we investigate two modern Intel x86 server CPU architectures in depth: Broadwell EP and Cascade Lake SP. We highlight relevant hardware configuration settings that can have a decisive impact on code performance and show how to properly measure on-chip and off-chip data transfer bandwidths. The new victim L3 cache of Cascade Lake and its advanced replacement policy receive due attention. Finally we use DGEMM, sparse matrix-vector multiplication, and the HPCG benchmark to make a connection to relevant application scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring Demographic Factors Behind the User Preferences in Ridesharing Services

Ridesharing is an increasingly prevalent form of transportation. Personal and pooled rideshare services are the two modes of ridesharing available on the market. While personal rideshare features higher time efficiency and better service experience, especially in terms of privacy, pooled rideshare has better energy efficiency and can reduce traffic congestion. To encourage users to utilize pooled rideshare, it is crucial to understand the factors behind preferences between pooled and personal rideshare services. This study conducted a survey study on a sample of 2,884 participants from the U.S. The stated-choice method was employed to collect the usage rate of pooled rideshare in designed scenarios. A detailed analysis of pooled rideshare usage rates among participants from different demographic backgrounds was performed. The results demonstrated demographic factors related to variations in pooled rideshare usage rates. Findings from this study explore the impacts of demographic factors on people's choices in ridesharing and provide important information for the modeling and optimization of ridesharing transportation systems.

Su, Haotian↗

Implementing Superresolution of Nonstationary Tides with Wavelets: An Introduction to CWT_Multi

Abstract Tides are often nonstationary due to nonastronomical influences. Investigating variable tidal properties implies a trade-off between separating adjacent frequencies (using long analysis windows) and resolving their time variations (short analysis windows). Previous continuous wavelet transform (CWT) tidal methods resolved tidal species. Here, we present CWT_Multi, a MATLAB code that 1) uses CWT linearity (via the “response coefficient method”) to implement superresolution, i.e., resolving tidal constituents beyond the Rayleigh criterion; 2) provides a Munk–Hasselmann constituent selection criterion appropriate for superresolution; and 3) introduces an objective, time-variable form of inference (“dynamic inference”) based on time-varying data properties. CWT_Multi resolves tidal species on time scales of days, and multiple constituents per species with fortnightly filters. It outputs astronomical phase lags and admittances, analyzes multiple records, and provides power spectra of the signal(s), residual(s), and reconstruction(s); confidence limits; and signal-to-noise ratios. Artificial data and water levels from the Lower Columbia River Estuary (LCRE) and San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) are used to test CWT_Multi and compare it to harmonic analysis programs NS_Tide and UTide. CWT_Multi provides superior reconstruction, detiding, dynamic analysis utility, and time resolution of constituents (but with broader confidence limits). Dynamic inference resolves closely spaced constituents (like K 1 , S 1 , and P 1 ) on fortnightly time scales, quantifying impacts of diel power peaking (with a 24-h period, like S 1 ) on water levels in the LCRE. CWT_Multi also helps quantify the impacts of high flows and a salt barrier closing on tidal properties in the SFBD. On the other hand, CWT_Multi does not excel at prediction, and results depend on analysis details, as for any method applied to nonstationary data. Significance Statement Ocean tides, especially in coastal and estuarine systems, are often nonstationary, in the sense that the mean and standard deviation of tidal properties vary over time, usually in response to some nontidal process. We introduce here a MATLAB code, CWT_Multi, that uses wavelet transforms to resolve both tidal species and constituents on time scales from a few days to months. Our code accommodates multiple scalar time series and has typical tidal analysis features like constituent selection and inference, plus two forms of uncertainty analyses. It is flexible, allowing the user to adapt analysis properties to diverse datasets. CWT_Multi is applicable to many problems involving time-variable tides, including sea level rise, compound flooding, sediment transport, and wetland habitat analyses. Application to vector data is a straightforward extension, but further development of our uncertainty analysis is merited. Because nonstationary tidal analysis is rapidly advancing, we also define the features of a “well-formed” analysis code.

Lobo, Matthew↗

Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) Validation Report - 2021

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) captures the most important factors influencing vehicle power demands and performs large-scale fuel efficiency calculations very quickly. These features make FASTSim well suited to evaluate a representative distribution of real-world fuel efficiency over a large quantity of in-use driving profiles, which have become increasingly available in recent years owing to incorporation of Global Positioning System data collection into various travel surveys and studies. In addition, by being open source, computationally lightweight, freely available, and free from expensive third-party software requirements, analyses conducted using FASTSim may be easily replicated and critiqued in an open forum. This is highly desirable for situations in which technical experts seek to reach consensus over questions about what vehicle development plans or public interest strategies could maximize fuel savings and minimize adverse environmental impacts with an evolving vehicle fleet. While FASTSim continues to be refined and improved on an ongoing basis, this report compiles available runs using versions of the tool from the past few years to provide illustrative comparisons of the model results against measured data.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Ultra-High Temperature Thermal Barrier Coating Development and Validation

The most effective method to improve industrial gas turbine power is to increase firing temperature. To maintain component durability at these higher temperatures, thermal barrier coatings (TBC’s) are playing an increasing role in protecting turbine hardware. TBC’s have been successfully used on Solar Turbines’ combustor liners and turbine airfoils, but there is a need for TBC’s that can operate at higher temperatures. Based on recent, favorable rig testing experience, Solar recognized that yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) TBC’s made by the Solution Precursor Plasma Spray Process (SPPS) has great potential for higher turbine temperatures. This testing verified the thermal cycle durability of the SPPS YAG TBC’s, as well as demonstrated that the temperature drop through the SPPS YAG TBC was twice that measured across a companion APS YSZ TBC. The SPPS YAG TBC with the potential for a 200°C improvement in temperature capability represents a materials breakthrough. The SPPS process also produces a number of unique microstructural features that confer superior properties. SPPC TBC’s have ultra-fine splats that increase toughness and erosion resistance, and the process can be tailored to produce through-thickness cracks for strain-tolerance and control porosity for lower thermal conductivity and increase coating abradability. This proposal would include further development of SPPS YAG density-graded coatings, optimization of the application process, and validation of higher temperature capability and durability through rig and engine testing of coated combustion liners and turbine outer air seals. The technology would be advanced from a TRL 3 to a proposed TRL 6 by overcoming processing concerns on efficiency, application distance and optimization of a graded coating without impacting coating durability by demonstrating the coating performance on components in rig and development gas turbine engine testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

X-ray Computed Tomography of Irradiated and Unirradiated AGR-3/4 Compacts

X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) has been utilized to image and characterize compacts from the combined third and fourth irradiation of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Program, AGR-3/4, fuel. The experiment contained tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated fuel particles as well as designed-to-fail (DTF) fuel particles. Two irradiated compacts, representing the lower and higher range of AGR-3/4 burnup (4.85% and 14.92% fissions per initial heavy metal atom FIMA) were examined. These represent the first known highly irradiated TRISO fuel compacts to be examined via X-ray CT. Additionally, two unirradiated compacts from the same production batch as the examined irradiation compacts were also imaged for a baseline comparison. As XCT of irradiated TRISO compacts is not a commonly implemented characterization technique, a significant portion of the report focuses on developed methodology and imaging conditions. A specialized sample shielding device was developed and fabricated specifically to limit received dose to staff during sample preparation for XCT and to minimize excess gamma radiation dose to sensitive electronic components with the utilized X-ray system. Significant penetration through the uranium oxycarbide fuel kernels by significantly hardening the X-ray beam with specialized proprietary filters acquired from Carl Zeiss NTS Ltd. The filter utilized resulted in an average X ray photon energy of ~110 keV which approaches uranium’s K-edge (~115 keV), maximizing penetration for a microfocus X-ray source. The gamma-radiation emitted from the irradiated AGR-3/4 TRISO compacts, has the same properties and mechanisms for interaction with matter as X-rays, thus the detection of gamma-radiation by the utilized X-ray detectors was initially a concern. However, although ?-rays did produce an observable signal on the X-ray detector, its contribution to the overall imaging results appeared negligible upon 3D reconstruction. The neglibile impact on the resulting 3D reconstructed volumes were likely the result of: (1) a significantly lower detection efficiency for ?-rays relative to X-rays; (2) An X-ray flux at the detector several orders of magnitude higher than that of the impinging ?-rays from the irradiated compacts. These results suggest that irradiated compacts with significantly higher radiation fields can be examined in the future if an acceptable route for sample handling and preparation can be determined. Additionally, the 3D imaging results of XCT can provide a valuable means of assessing compacts. While in many ways complimentary to traditional post irradiation examination techniques such as optical ceramography, XCT can provide additional insight into compact features traditionally difficult to discern directly from cross-sectional imaging alone. Preliminary analyses on kernel size, morphology (aspect ratio and sphericity), and kernel orientation were presented. Sphericity, a simple morphological shape descriptor, was utilized to screen for kernel extrusions within the high burnup compact. The number of kernel extrusions identified via XCT represented an approximate two-fold increase from the quantity of extruded particles observed (via optical ceramography) in adjacent compacts from the same irradiation capsule. While numerical analysis of the compact datasets was highly preliminary, initial results show promise for providing complimentary metrics to current AGR-3/4 PIE and potentially additional insight into the processes driving TRISO fuel degradation during reactor operation. Additional analyses to be performed at a later date include a more detailed examination of kernel size, kernel sphericity (and observed kernel extrusions), and sphericity. Given all particles can be observed in a single data volume possible correlation of spatial position with observed kernel features will also be made at a later date.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control over Banded Morphologies and Circular Dichroism in Chiral Halide Perovskites

Chiral halide perovskites (c-HPs) merge the chirality of organic cations with the semiconducting properties of metal halide frameworks, creating a family of chiral semiconductors with tunable chiroptoelectronic behavior. Here, we describe the impact of periodic banded morphologies of textured c-HP ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 films (NEA = 1- (1-naphthyl)ethylammonium) on their chiroptical behavior. Due to the interplay between the crystalline and glassy phases, the c-HP film growth is driven by rhythmic precipitation, producing a distinctive controllable radial banded pattern with the ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 inorganic planes oriented parallel to the substrate. The banded morphology can be controlled, as evidenced by the growth temperature dictating the ridge-to-ridge spacing as well as the density of banded regions. The resulting circular dichroism (CD) spectral shape, intensity, and polarity vary in a seemingly random manner across processing conditions. However, these spectral features can be explained by considering key features of the banded morphology, such as refraction of the incident light due to surface morphology, birefringence, and stacked, rotated crystallites. These effects cannot be canceled by averaging front and back CD spectra of c-HP films, and our model incorporating these effects reproduces all observed CD spectra remarkably well. The control over the c-HP morphology and prediction capabilities of our CD modeling leads to further understanding of this class of semiconductors and the possibility of exploiting structural features for light polarization control akin to enhanced metamaterials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Understanding multi-scale battery degradation with a macro-to-nano zoom through its hierarchy

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) feature structural and chemical complexities across a broad range of length scales. It is the hierarchy of the battery structure that determines its functionality. An in-depth understanding of the battery function, degradation, and failure mechanisms requires a thorough and systematic investigation from structural, chemical, mechanical, and dynamic perspectives. Here we present a macro-to-nano zoom through the hierarchy of a commercial 18650 type LIB using a suite of state-of-the-art X-ray microscopy techniques. Damage, deformation, and heterogeneity at different length scales are visualized and are associated with different degradation phenomena and mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of the mechanical properties of the cathode material, which could impact both the immediate and the long-term cell behaviors significantly. While this study focuses on a commercial lithium cell with a standard configuration, our findings can be extrapolated and are applicable to the development of next-generation energy storage technology, e.g. solid-state batteries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Photonic methods and technologies for monitoring the ocean and atmosphere

In this paper, we review photonic methods and technologies that are promising for monitoring the ocean and atmosphere and have been implemented mainly in recent years at the Institute of Automation and Control Processes, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences. We present results of lidar studies that have made it possible to understand key features of ocean – atmosphere interaction processes under continent – ocean transition conditions, which determine specific features of the atmospheric aerosol distribution, small gaseous components of the atmosphere and its optical characteristics. We consider methods and tools for combined optical and laser fluorescence monitoring of the ocean surface. Particular attention is paid to results of research on remote methods and tools for real-time laser-induced and laser fluorescence environmental monitoring of the ocean, including specialised fibre-optic probes and mobile underwater robotic systems. We present results of the development and investigation of highly sensitive, noise-proof fibre-optic hydro- and seismic/acoustic sensors for remote monitoring of the ocean and robotic systems for underwater laser protection of marine vessels, hydraulic structures and oceanographic instruments against the negative impact of biofouling. (invited paper)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impact of collisionality on turbulence in the edge of tokamak plasma using 3D global simulations

Collisionality is one of the key parameters in determining turbulent transport in the plasma edge, regulating phenomena such as 'shoulder formation', separation of scale lengths in the scrape-off layer (SOL), turbulence damping and zonal flow dynamics. Understanding its role is therefore of primary importance for future reactors like ITER. Getting reliable predictions and a better characterization of plasma flow properties when varying collisionality remains, however, a critical challenge for the simulations. This paper focuses on the impact of varying collisionality in a non-isothermal three-dimensional fluid model of the plasma edge. A high field side limited configuration encompassing open and closed magnetic field lines with parameters typical of a medium-sized tokamak is considered. The present model can consistently account for the variations of collisionality and its impact on both the parallel resistivity η ∥ and the ion and electron parallel thermal conductivities χ ∥e,i . Details on mean flow and turbulence properties are given. Changing collisionality leads to significant changes in the flow properties both on the mean and fluctuating quantities. In particular, lowering collisionality decreases the size of coherent structures, the fluctuation levels of turbulence, and steepens the density and temperature equilibrium profiles around the separatrix leading to a global reduction of the turbulent transport. The SOL width is observed to increase with collisionality, eventually resulting in the disappearance of the scale lengths separation between near and far SOL, consistently with previous experimental observations. At low collisionality, where the presence of narrow feature is well-established, a contribution of heat conduction increases up to compete with heat convection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study Numerical Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis using iTOUGH2 for West Virginia University

To reduce the geothermal exploration risk, a feasibility study is performed for a deep direct-use system proposed at the West Virginia University (WVU) Morgantown campus. This study applies numerical simulations to investigate reservoir impedance and thermal production. Because of the great depth of the geothermal reservoir, few data are available to characterize reservoir features and properties. As a result, the study focuses on the following three aspects: 1. model choice for predicting reservoir impedance and thermal breakthrough: after investigating three potential models (one single permeability model and two dual permeability models) for flow through fractured rock, it is decided to use single permeability model for further analysis; 2. well placement (horizontal vs. vertical) options: horizontal well placement seems to be more robust to heterogeneity and the impedance is more acceptable; 3. Prediction uncertainty: the most influential parameters are identified using a First-Order-Second-Moment uncertainty propagation analysis, and the uncertain range of the model predictions is estimated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Heterogeneity has a large impact on the perdition, therefore, is considered in the predictive model and uncertainty analysis. The numerical model results and uncertainty analysis are used for economic analysis. The dataset submitted here support the described study. Manuscript is submitted to Geothermics, will be linked once paper is accepted.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Impact of Self-shielding Minihalos on the Lyα Forest at High Redshift

Abstract Dense gas in minihalos with masses of 10 6 −10 8 M ⊙ can shield themselves from reionization for ∼100 Myr after being exposed to the UV background. These self-shielded systems, often unresolved in cosmological simulations, can introduce strong absorption in quasar spectra. This paper is the first systematic study on the impact of these systems on the Ly α forest. We first derive the H i column density profile of photoevaporating minihalos by conducting 1D radiation–hydrodynamics simulations. We utilize these results to estimate the Ly α opacity from minihalos in a large-scale simulation that cannot resolve self-shielding. When the ionization rate of the background radiation is 0.03 × 10 −12 s −1 , as expected near the end of reionization at z ∼ 5.5, we find that the incidence rate of damped Ly α absorbers increases by a factor of ∼2−4 compared to at z = 4.5. The Ly α flux is, on average, suppressed by ∼3% of its mean due to minihalos. The absorption features enhance the 1D power spectrum up to ∼5% at k ∼ 0.1 h Mpc −1 (or 10 −3 km −1 s), which is comparable to the enhancement caused by inhomogeneous reionization. The flux is particularly suppressed in the vicinity of large halos along the line-of-sight direction at separations of up to 10 h −1 Mpc at r ⊥ ≲ 2 h −1 Mpc. However, these effects become much smaller for higher ionizing rates (≳0.3 × 10 −12 s −1 ) expected in the post-reionization Universe. Our findings highlight the need to consider minihalo absorption when interpreting the Ly α forest at z ≳ 5.5. Moreover, the sensitivity of these quantities to the ionizing background intensity can be exploited to constrain the intensity itself.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗