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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Reconnection-driven Flares in M87*: Proton–Synchrotron-powered GeV Emission

Magnetic reconnection in current layers that form intermittently in radiatively inefficient accretion flows onto black holes is a promising mechanism for particle acceleration and high-energy emission. It has been recently proposed that such layers, arising during flux eruption events, can power the rapid TeV flares observed from the core of M87. In this scenario, inverse-Compton scattering of soft radiation from the accretion flow by energetic electron–positron pairs produced near the reconnection layer was suggested as the primary emission mechanism. However, detailed calculations show that radiation from pairs alone cannot account for the GeV emission detected by the Fermi observatory. In this work, we combine analytic estimates with 3D radiative particle-in-cell simulations of pair–proton plasmas to show that the GeV emission can be naturally explained by synchrotron radiation from protons accelerated in the current sheet. Although the exact proton content of the layer is uncertain, our model remains robust across a broad range of proton-to-pair number density ratios. While protons are subdominant in number compared to pairs, our simulations demonstrate that they can be accelerated more efficiently, leading to a self-regulated steady state in which protons dominate the energy budget. Ultimately, proton synchrotron emission accounts for approximately 5%–20% of the total dissipation power. The majority is radiated as MeV photons via pair synchrotron emission, with a smaller fraction emitted as TeV photons through inverse-Compton scattering.

Active galactic nuclei↗

The UCR gamma ray telescope data acquisition system

A description is given of an electronics system based on the DEC Falcon SBC-11/23+, which has been designed and built to support a balloon-borne double Compton gamma-ray telescope. The system provides support for commands, data acquisition, data routing and compression, and photomultiplier tube gain control. The software consists of a number of interrupt-driven routines of differing priorities to handle each system task. This includes two circular buffers for onboard processing and bit encoding before transmission of the information to the ground computer. Acquisition of gamma-ray events at rates above the 200-Hz telemetry constraint is easily achieved.

O'Neill, T. J.↗

Observations of Enhanced Radar Backscatter (ERB) from Millstone Hill

Intense enhancements of the incoherent radar backscatter spectrum from the topside ionosphere were observed with the Millstone Hill UHF radar. Enhancements occurring at the local ion acoustic frequency causing large asymmetries in the measured ion line may be produced by current driven instabilities. These enhancements pose a practical problem for space surveillance systems because their cross section and spectral width are characteristic of satellites. Conversely, their hard target signature complicates the study of naturally occurring ERB events; it is nearly impossible to distinguish them from satellites based on a single measurement. Statistical comparisons of observed coherent echo distributions with predictions from a satellite catalog were used to broadly identify periods of ERB activity. A series of experiments using multiple diagnostics, including satellite instruments, for simultaneous observations have established the association of ERB with large fluxes of soft suprathermal electrons carrying field aligned currents. Zenith data are also presented which show the asymmetric growth of ion acoustic waves directly above Millstone Hill. Details of these results are presented.

Lee, M. C.↗

Taxi Time Prediction at Charlotte Airport Using Fast-Time Simulation and Machine Learning Techniques

Accurate taxi time prediction is required for enabling efficient runway scheduling that can increase runway throughput and reduce taxi times and fuel consumptions on the airport surface. Currently NASA and American Airlines are jointly developing a decision-support tool called Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) that assists airport ramp controllers to make gate pushback decisions and improve the overall efficiency of airport surface traffic. In this presentation, we propose to use Linear Optimized Sequencing (LINOS), a discrete-event fast-time simulation tool, to predict taxi times and provide the estimates to the runway scheduler in real-time airport operations. To assess its prediction accuracy, we also introduce a data-driven analytical method using machine learning techniques. These two taxi time prediction methods are evaluated with actual taxi time data obtained from the SARDA human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation for Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) using various performance measurement metrics. Based on the taxi time prediction results, we also discuss how the prediction accuracy can be affected by the operational complexity at this airport and how we can improve the fast time simulation model before implementing it with an airport scheduling algorithm in a real-time environment.

airport surface traffic↗

The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.

P. M. Brando↗

Analysis of Mars 2020 Perseverance Entry, Descent, and Landing Attitude Initialization Performance

The Mars 2020 Perseverance rover successfully landed at Jezero Crater on February 18, 2021. To perform this feat, the entry, descent, and landing navigation filter must be initialized with an estimate of the spacecraft state, which includes attitude from the cruise attitude control subsystem. Accuracy of this initial attitude estimate has an impact on important metrics such as touchdown velocity. This paper presents a post-landing reconstruction of the attitude initialization error budget, showing that the requirement of 0.15 deg ($3\sigma$, per axis) was met. Each error source is described and analyzed, including flight telemetry where possible. Analysis of the error budget shows that it is driven by systematic sun sensor errors, star-scanner-to-sun-sensor alignment stability, and inertial-measurement-unit-to-sun-sensor alignment stability. Finally, a contingency plan to initialize the navigation filter in the event of a star scanner failure is presented. While this plan was not needed in flight, results indicate that the attitude initialization requirement could have still been met in this off-nominal scenario.

Lo, Kevin D.↗

The Global Mapping of Electron Precipitation and Ionospheric Conductance From Whistler-Mode Chorus Waves

Auroral precipitation is the second major energy source after solar irradiation that ionizes the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Diffuse electron aurora caused by wave-particle interaction in the inner magnetosphere (L < 8) takes over 60% of total auroral energy flux, strongly contributing to the ionospheric conductance and thus to the ionosphere-thermosphere dynamics. This paper quantifies the impact of chorus waves on the diffuse aurora and the ionospheric conductance during quiet, medium, and strong geomagnetic activities, parameterized by AE <100, 100 < AE < 300, and AE > 300, respectively. Using chorus wave statistics and inner-magnetosphere plasma conditions from Timed History Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) observations, we directly derive the energy spectrum of diffuse electron precipitation under quasi-linear theory. We then calculate the height-integrated conductance from the wave-driven aurora spectrum using the electron impact ionization model of Fang et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2010, 37) and the MSIS atmosphere model. By utilizing Fang’s ionization model, the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scattar Radar (NRLMSISE-00) model from 2000s for the neutral atmosphere components, and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Full Diffusion Code, we improve upon the standard generalization of Maxwellian diffuse electron precipitation patterns and their resulting ionosphere conductance. Our study of global auroral precipitation and ionospheric conductance from chorus wave statistics is the first statistical model of its kind. We show that the total electron flux and conductance pattern from our results agree with those of Ovation Prime model over the pre-midnight to post-dawn sector as geomagnetic activity increases. Our study examines the relative contributions of upper band chorus (UBC) and lower band chorus wave (LBC) driven conductance in the ionosphere. We found LBC waves drove diffuse electron precipitation significantly more than UBC waves, however it is possible that THEMIS data may have underestimated the upper chorus band wave observations for magnetic latitudes below 65 degrees. ° .

diffuse auroral precipitation↗

Whiting events: biogenic origin due to the photosynthetic activity of cyanobacterial picoplankton

An annual whiting event occurs each year in late May to early June in Fayetteville Green Lake, New York. The initiation of this event correlates with exponential growth of the Synechococcus population within the lake. Synechococcus is the dominant (by approximately 4 orders of magnitude) autotrophic organism owing to the oligotrophic condition of the lake. The delta 13C values of the dissolved inorganic C range seasonally from -9.5% in winter to -6.2% in summer due to photosynthetic activity. Calcite precipitates principally in the microenvironment surrounding Synechococcus because of a photosynthetically driven alkalization process and the availability of the cells as nucleation sites. This calcite has a heavier delta 13C value (>4%) than does the dissolved inorganic C of the lake water owing to the cells' preferential uptake of 12C. A conceptual model suggests that photosynthetic activity and cell surface chemistry, together with the substantial surface area that arises from the great abundance of micron-sized cells, allow Synechococcus to dominate the annual whiting events in Fayetteville Green Lake.

NASA Center ARC↗

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998–2013

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from fiscal year 1998 through 2013 for the component reliability as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Consolidated Events Database. The TDP failure modes considered are failure to start, failure to run less than or equal to 1 hour, failure to run more than 1 hour, and (for normally running systems) failure to run. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified for TDP unavailability, for frequency of start demands for standby TDPs, and for run hours in the first hour after start. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified for start demands for normally running TDPs, and for run hours per reactor critical year for normally running TDPs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Assessing the methane mitigation potential of innovative management in US rice production

Abstract Rice is an important global crop while also contributing significant anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions. To support the future of rice production, more information is needed on the impacts of sustainability-driven management used to grow rice with lower associated methane emissions. Recent support for the impacts of different growing practices in the US has prompted the application of a regional methodology (Tier 2) to estimate methane emissions in different rice growing regions. The methodology estimates rice methane emissions from the US Mid-South (MdS) and California (Cal) using region-specific scaling factors applied to a region-specific baseline flux. In our study, we leverage land cover data and soil clay content to estimate methane emissions using this approach, while also examining how changes in common production practices can affect overall emissions in the US. Our results indicated US rice cultivation produced between 0.32 and 0.45 Tg CH 4 annually, which were approximately 7% and 42% lower on average compared to Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inventories, respectively. Our estimates were 63% greater on average compared to similar methods that lack regional context. Introducing aeration events into irrigation resulted in the greatest methane reductions across both regions. When accounting for differences between baseline and reduction scenarios, the US MdS typically had higher mitigation potential compared to Cal. The differences in cumulative mitigation potential across the 2008–2020 period were likely driven by lower production area clay content for the US MdS compared to Cal. The added spatial representation in the Tier 2 approach is useful in surveying how impactful methane-reducing practices might be within and across regions.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A Circumbinary Disk Scenario for the Negative Orbital-period Derivative of the Ultra-compact X-Ray Binary 4U 1820-303

It is generally thought that an ultra-compact X-ray Binary is composed of a neutron star and a helium white dwarf donor star. As one of the most compact binaries, 4U 1820-303 in globular cluster NGC 6624 was predicted to have an orbital period of P-dot /P∼1.1×10{sup −7} yr{sup −1} if the mass transfer is fully driven by gravitational radiation. However, recent analysis of 16 year data from Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer and other historical records has yielded a negative orbital-period derivative in the past 35 years. In this work, we propose an evolutionary circumbinary (CB) disk model to account for this anomalous orbital-period derivative. 4U 1820-30 is known to undergo superburst events caused by runaway thermal nuclear burning on the neutron star. We assume that, for a small fraction of the superbursts, part of the ejected material may form a CB disk around the binary. If the recurrence time of such superbursts is ∼10,000 year and ∼10% of the ejected mass feeds a CB disk, the abrupt angular-momentum loss causes a temporary orbital shrink, and the donor’s radius and its Roche lobe radius do not keep in step. Driven by mass transfer and angular-momentum loss, the binary would adjust its orbital parameters to recover a new stable stage. Based on theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, we find that the required feed mass at the CB disk is approximately ∼10{sup −8} M {sub ⊙}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture and Vegetation Stress in Lightning-Initiated Wildfires

Lightning-caused wildfires are a small percentage of all wildfire events within the Conterminous U.S. (CONUS), but they account for over 56% of the acreage burned. The atmospheric conditions favoring wildfire and rapid growth are well understood: large dewpoint depressions, unstable planetary boundary layer, strong winds, etc. However, antecedent land surface conditions affecting dead and live fuel moisture is more difficult to quantify. This study examines over 20 years of antecedent land surface, vegetation stress, and wildfire characteristic data associated with nearly 77,000 lightning-initiated wildfires from the U.S. Forest Service Wildfire Database. We will invoke two in-house databases generated by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: an observations-driven, climatological run of the Noah land surface model within the NASA Land Information System (i.e., SPoRT-LIS) to depict soil moisture deficits / anomalies, and a satellite-constrained Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) product to denote areas of stressed vegetation. We will mine these datasets associated with lightning-caused (and null) events to determine important relationships, distributions, and delineators that correspond to elevated threat areas for lightning-initiated wildfires.

Wildfire↗

Aseismic Motions Drive a Sparse Seismicity During Fluid Injections Into a Fractured Zone in a Carbonate Reservoir

An increase in fluid pressure in faults can trigger seismicity and large aseismic motions. Understanding how fluid and faults interact is an essential goal for seismic hazard and reservoir monitoring, but this key relation remains unclear. We developed an in situ experiment of fluid injections at a 10 meter scale. Water was injected at high pressure in different geological structures inside a fault damaged zone, in limestone at 280 m depth in the Low Noise Underground Laboratory (France). Induced seismicity, as well as strains, pressure, and flow rate, was continuously monitored during the injections. Although nonreversible deformations related to fracture reactivations were observed for all injections, only a few tests generated seismicity. Events are characterized by a 0.5-to-4 kHz content and a small magnitude (approximately -3.5). They are located within 1.5 m accuracy between 1 and 12 m from the injections. Comparing strain measurements and seismicity shows that more than 96% of the deformation is aseismic. The seismic moment is also small compared to the one expected from the injected volume. Moreover, a dual seismic behavior is observed as (1) the spatiotemporal distribution of some cluster of events is clearly independent from the fluid diffusion (2) while a diffusion-type pattern can be observed for some others clusters. Furthermore, the seismicity might therefore appear as an indirect effect to the fluid pressure, driven by aseismic motion and related stress perturbation transferred through failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Valuing catastrophe bonds involving correlation and CIR interest rate model

Natural catastrophes lead to problems of insurance and reinsurance industry. Classic insurance mechanisms are often inadequate for dealing with consequences of catastrophic events. Therefore, new financial instruments, including catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), were developed. In this paper we price the catastrophe bonds with a generalized payoff structure, assuming that the bondholder’s payoff depends on an underlying asset driven by a stochastic jump-diffusion process. Simultaneously, the risk-free spot interest rate has also a stochastic form and is described by the multi-factor Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. We assume the possibility of correlation between the Brownian part of the underlying asset and the components of the interest rate model. Using stochastic methods, we prove the valuation formula, which can be applied to the cat bonds with various payoff functions. We use adaptive Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the numerical properties of the obtained pricing formula for various settings, including some similar to the practical cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) - soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria - comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FlameNEST: explicit profile likelihoods with the Noble Element Simulation Technique

We present FlameNEST, a framework providing explicit likelihood evaluations in noble element particle detectors using data-driven models from the Noble Element Simulation Technique. FlameNEST provides a way to perform statistical analyses on real data with no dependence on large, computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations by evaluating the likelihood on an event-by-event basis using analytic probability elements convolved together in a single TensorFlow multiplication. Furthermore, this robust framework creates opportunities for simple inter-collaboration analyses which will be fundamental for the future of experimental dark matter physics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Search for electroweak-scale dijet resonances using trigger-level analysis with the ATLAS detector in 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

This article reports on a search for dijet resonances using 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collision data recorded at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed solely on jets reconstructed within the ATLAS trigger to overcome bandwidth limitations imposed on conventional single-jet triggers, which would otherwise reject data from decays of sub-TeV dijet resonances. Collision events with two jets satisfying transverse momentum thresholds of 𝑝 T ≥ 85 GeV and jet rapidity separation of |𝑦*| <0.6 are analysed for dijet resonances with invariant masses from 375 to 1800 GeV. A data-driven background estimate is used to model the dijet mass distribution from multijet processes. No significant excess above the expected background is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on coupling values for a benchmark leptophobic axial-vector 𝑍′ model and on the production cross section for a new resonance contributing a Gaussian-distributed line-shape to the dijet mass distribution.

hadron colliders↗

Zeptocalorimetry

Here we present the development of a Zeptocalorimeter. The motivation for designing and implementing such a device is driven, ultimately, by its anticipated exceptional sensitivity (10-21 J/K, at 2K). Such a device would be highly valuable in detecting minute quantities of mass for threat detection, studying fundamental phonon physics, and detecting energetic dissipation events at the attojoule level. To date, the most sensitive calorimeter demonstrated in the literature at 2K has been developed by the Roukes group at Caltech, where they achieved an addendum heat capacity of 10 -15 J/K with a 1/1000 sensitivity to external stimuli. To obtain such a low value of heat capacity requires a very small thermal mass, and thus, one of the greatest challenges in this project is the fabrication of this device, which requires numerous precision nanofabrication techniques. Furthermore, the heat capacity measurement of this device, as performed from room temperature to cryogenic temperatures, is equally challenging, as the transient signals used to determine the platform's thermal time constant require careful attention to the mitigation of feedthrough capacitance and delicate amplifier offsets. In this report we describe in detail the fabrication process flow for developing the calorimeter, including the layout and device design for obtaining a single lumped RC thermal resistance and capacitance, so that the device can be used for quantitative measurements of nanoscale materials with a suitable thermal link. The measurement method and experimental setup are also given, where we explain the heater and thermometer calibration methods, the thermal resistance measurements, the transient measurements, and lastly the cryogenic setup with intermediate frequency cabling and the thermal sinking of those lines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗