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NASA NTRS2002

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties Within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

User and Task Analysis of the Flight Surgeon Console at the Mission Control Center of the NASA Johnson Space Center

Astronauts in a space station are to some extent like patients in an intensive care unit (ICU). Medical support of a mission crew will require acquisition, transmission, distribution, integration, and archiving of significant amounts of data. These data are acquired by disparate systems and will require timely, reliable, and secure distribution to different communities for the execution of various tasks of space missions. The goal of the Comprehensive Medical Information System (CMIS) Project at Johnson Space Center Flight Medical Clinic is to integrate data from all Medical Operations sources, including the reference information sources and the electronic medical records of astronauts. A first step toward the full CMIS implementation is to integrate and organize the reference information sources and the electronic medical record with the Flight Surgeons console. In order to investigate this integration, we need to understand the usability problems of the Flight Surgeon's console in particular and medical information systems in general. One way to achieve this understanding is through the use of user and task analyses whose general purpose is to ensure that only the necessary and sufficient task features that match users capacities will be included in system implementations. The goal of this summer project was to conduct user and task analyses employing cognitive engineering techniques to analyze the task of the Flight Surgeons and Biomedical Engineers (BMEs) while they worked on Console. The techniques employed were user interviews, observations and a questionnaire to collect data for which a hierarchical task analysis and an information resource assessment were performed. They are described in more detail below. Finally, based on our analyses, we make recommendations for improvements to the support structure.

Johnson, Kathy A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗
NASA NTRS2004

Preserving the Finger Lakes for the Future: A Prototype Decision Support System for Water Resource Management, Open Space, and Agricultural Protection

This report summarizes the activity conducted under NASA Grant NAG13-02059 entitled "Preserving the Finger Lakes for the Future" A Prototype Decision Support System for Water Resources Management, Open Space and Agricultural Protection, for the period of September 26, 2003 to September 25, 2004. The RACNE continues to utilize the services of its affiliate, the Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technology at Cayuga Community College, Inc. (IAGT), for the purposes of this project under its permanent operating agreement with IAGT. IAGT is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit Corporation created by the RACNE for the purpose of carrying out its programmatic and administrative mission. The "Preserving the Finger Lakes for the Future" project has progressed and evolved as planned, with the continuation or initiation of a number of program facets at programmatic, technical, and inter-agency levels. The project has grown, starting with the well received core concept of the Virtual Management Operations Center (VMOC), to the functional Watershed Virtual Management Operations Center (W-VMOC) prototype, to the more advanced Finger Lakes Decision Support System (FLDSS) prototype, deployed for evaluation and assessment to a wide variety of agencies and organizations in the Finger Lakes region and beyond. This suite of tools offers the advanced, compelling functionality of interactive 3D visualization interfaced with 2D mapping, all accessed via Internet or virtually any kind of distributed computer network.

Brower, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Next Landsat Satellite: The Landsat Data Continuity Mission

The Landsat program is one of the longest running satellite programs for Earth observations from space. The program was initiated by the launch of Landsat 1 in 1972. Since then a series of six more Landsat satellites were launched and at least one of those satellites has been in operations at all times to continuously collect images of the global land surface. The Department of Interior (DOI) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) preserves data collected by all of the Landsat satellites at their Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. This 40-year data archive provides an unmatched record of the Earth's land surface that has undergone dramatic changes in recent decades due to the increasing pressure of a growing population and advancing technologies. EROS provides the ability for anyone to search the archive and order digital Landsat images over the internet for free. The Landsat data are a public resource for observing, characterizing, monitoring, trending, and predicting land use change over time providing an invaluable tool for those addressing the profound consequences of those changes to society. The most recent launch of a Landsat satellite occurred in 1999 when Landsat 7 was placed in orbit. While Landsat 7 remains in operation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the DOI/ USGS are building its successor satellite system currently called the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM). NASA has the lead for building and launching the satellite that will carry two Earth-viewing instruments, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) and the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The OLI will take images that measure the amount of sunlight reflected by the land surface at nine wavelengths of light with three of those wavelengths beyond the range of human vision. T1RS will collect coincident images that measure light emitted by the land surface as a function of surface temperature at two longer wavelengths well beyond the range of human vision. The DOI/USGS is developing the ground system that will command and control the LDCM satellite in orbit and manage the OLI and TIRS data transmitted by the satellite. DOI/USGS will thus operate the satellite and collect, archive, and distribute the image data as part of the EROS archive. DOI/USGS has committed to renaming LDCM as Landsat 8 following launch. By either name the satellite and its sensors will extend the 40-year archive with images sufficiently consistent with data from earlier Landsat satellites to allow multi-decadal, broad-area studies of our dynamic landscapes. The next Landsat satellite and ground system are on schedule for a January, 2013 launch.

Rons, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Invasive Species Forecasting System

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) provides computational support for the generic work processes found in many regional-scale ecosystem modeling applications. Decision support tools built using ISFS allow a user to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of management concern, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. This type of decision product helps resource managers plan invasive species protection, monitoring, and control strategies for the lands they manage. Until now, scientists and resource managers have lacked the data-assembly and computing capabilities to produce these maps quickly and cost efficiently. ISFS focuses on regional-scale habitat suitability modeling for invasive terrestrial plants. ISFS s component architecture emphasizes simplicity and adaptability. Its core services can be easily adapted to produce model-based decision support tools tailored to particular parks, monuments, forests, refuges, and related management units. ISFS can be used to build standalone run-time tools that require no connection to the Internet, as well as fully Internet-based decision support applications. ISFS provides the core data structures, operating system interfaces, network interfaces, and inter-component constraints comprising the canonical workflow for habitat suitability modeling. The predictors, analysis methods, and geographic extents involved in any particular model run are elements of the user space and arbitrarily configurable by the user. ISFS provides small, lightweight, readily hardened core components of general utility. These components can be adapted to unanticipated uses, are tailorable, and require at most a loosely coupled, nonproprietary connection to the Web. Users can invoke capabilities from a command line; programmers can integrate ISFS's core components into more complex systems and services. Taken together, these features enable a degree of decentralization and distributed ownership that have helped other types of scientific information services succeed in recent years.

Schnase, John↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Mountainous Northeastern United States

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly approximately 1/ 8 deg) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (1/ 8 deg) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

climatology↗
NASA NTRS2013

International Space Station Instmments Collect Imagery of Natural Disasters

A new focus for utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) is conducting basic and applied research that directly benefits Earth's citizenry. In the Earth Sciences, one such activity is collecting remotely sensed imagery of disaster areas and making those data immediately available through the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System, especially in response to activations of the International Charter for Space and Major Disasters (known informally as the "International Disaster Charter", or IDC). The ISS, together with other NASA orbital sensor assets, responds to IDC activations following notification by the USGS. Most of the activations are due to natural hazard events, including large floods, impacts of tropical systems, major fires, and volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Through the ISS Program Science Office, we coordinate with ISS instrument teams for image acquisition using several imaging systems. As of 1 August 2013, we have successfully contributed imagery data in support of 14 Disaster Charter Activations, including regions in both Haiti and the east coast of the US impacted by Hurricane Sandy; flooding events in Russia, Mozambique, India, Germany and western Africa; and forest fires in Algeria and Ecuador. ISS‐based sensors contributing data include the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO), the ISERV (ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System) Pathfinder camera mounted in the US Window Observational Research Facility (WORF), the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), formerly operating from the WORF, and high resolution handheld camera photography collected by crew members (Crew Earth Observations). When orbital parameters and operations support data collection, ISS‐based imagery adds to the resources available to disaster response teams and contributes to the publicdomain record of these events for later analyses.

Evans, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Cold Season QPF: Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being calculated explicitly through the use of single- or multi-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes. As computational resources grow, the real-time application of these schemes is becoming available to a broader audience, ranging from national meteorological centers to their component forecast offices. A need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts has been highlighted by the United States Weather Research Program, which advised that gains in forecasting skill will draw upon improved simulations of clouds and cloud microphysical processes. Investments in space-borne remote sensing have produced the NASA A-Train of polar orbiting satellites, specially equipped to observe and catalog cloud properties. The NASA CloudSat instrument, a recent addition to the A-Train and the first 94 GHz radar system operated in space, provides a unique opportunity to compare observed cloud profiles to their modeled counterparts. Comparisons are available through the use of a radiative transfer model (QuickBeam), which simulates 94 GHz radar returns based on the microphysics of cloudy model profiles and the prescribed characteristics of their constituent hydrometeor classes. CloudSat observations of snowfall are presented for a case in the central United States, with comparisons made to precipitating clouds as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and the Goddard single-moment microphysics scheme. An additional forecast cycle is performed with a temperature-based parameterization of the snow distribution slope parameter, with comparisons to CloudSat observations provided through the QuickBeam simulator.

Molthan, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aerosol analysis techniques and results from micro pulse lidar

The effect of clouds and aerosol on the atmospheric energy balance is a key global change problem. Full knowledge of aerosol distributions is difficult to obtain by passive sensing alone. Aerosol and cloud retrievals in several important areas can be significantly improved with active remote sensing by lidar. Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL) is an aerosol and cloud profilometer that provides a detailed picture of the vertical structure of boundary layer and elevated dust or smoke plume aerosols. MPL is a compact, fully eyesafe, ground-based, zenith pointing instrument capable of full-time, long-term unattended operation at 523 nm. In October of 1993, MPL began taking full-time measurements for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) site and has since expanded to ARM sites in the Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Other MPL's are moving out to some of the 60 world-wide Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites which are already equipped with automatic sun-sky scanning spectral radiometers providing total column optical depth measurements. Twelve additional MPL's have been purchased by NASA to add to the aerosol and cloud database of the EOS ground validation network. The original MPL vertical resolution was 300 meters but the newer versions have a vertical resolution of 30 meters. These expanding data sets offer a significant new resource for atmospheric radiation analysis. Under the direction of Jim Spinhirne, the MPL analysis team at NASA/GSFC has developed instrument correction and backscatter analysis techniques for ARM to detect cloud boundaries and analyze vertical aerosol structures. A summary of MPL applications is found in Hlavka (1997). With the aid of independent total column optical depth instruments such as the Multifilter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR) at the ARM sites or sun photometers at the AERONET sites, the MPL data can be calibrated, and time-resolved vertical profiles of aerosol optical depth as well as aerosol extinction can be calculated. The techniques used to calibrate the lidar, calculate the aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratio, and produce profiles of aerosol extinction and aerosol optical depths, will be described. Results using these techniques will be presented for case studies at the ARM site in the Tropical West Pacific and later in the Southern Great Plains.

Hlavka, Dennis L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Validation and Error Characterization for the Global Precipitation Measurement

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international effort to increase scientific knowledge on the global water cycle with specific goals of improving the understanding and the predictions of climate, weather, and hydrology. These goals will be achieved through several satellites specifically dedicated to GPM along with the integration of numerous meteorological satellite data streams from international and domestic partners. The GPM effort is led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan. In addition to the spaceborne assets, international and domestic partners will provide ground-based resources for validating the satellite observations and retrievals. This paper describes the validation effort of Global Precipitation Measurement to provide quantitative estimates on the errors of the GPM satellite retrievals. The GPM validation approach will build upon the research experience of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) retrieval comparisons and its validation program. The GPM ground validation program will employ instrumentation, physical infrastructure, and research capabilities at Supersites located in important meteorological regimes of the globe. NASA will provide two Supersites, one in a tropical oceanic and the other in a mid-latitude continental regime. GPM international partners will provide Supersites for other important regimes. Those objectives or regimes not addressed by Supersites will be covered through focused field experiments. This paper describes the specific errors that GPM ground validation will address, quantify, and relate to the GPM satellite physical retrievals. GPM will attempt to identify the source of errors within retrievals including those of instrument calibration, retrieval physical assumptions, and algorithm applicability. With the identification of error sources, improvements will be made to the respective calibration, assumption, or algorithm. The instrumentation and techniques of the Supersites will be discussed. The GPM core satellite, with its dual-frequency radar and conically scanning radiometer, will provide insight into precipitation drop-size distributions and potentially increased measurement capabilities of light rain and snowfall. The ground validation program will include instrumentation and techniques commensurate with these new measurement capabilities.

Bidwell, Steven W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Mars Volatiles and Climate Surveyor (MVACS) Integrated Payload for the Mars Polar Lander Mission

The Mars Volatiles and Climate Surveyor (MVACS) integrated payload for the Mars Polar Lander will be launched in January 1999, with a scheduled landing on Mars' south-polar layered deposits in December 1999. Over the course of its 90-day nominal mission during the martian southern spring and summer seasons, it will make in situ measurements that will provide new insights into the behavior and distribution of martian volatiles, MVACS consists of four major instrument systems: a surface stereo imager (SSI), which will acquire multispectral stereo images of the surface and atmosphere; a 2-m robotic arm (RA), which will dig a O.5-m deep trench and acquire surface and subsurface samples that will be imaged by a focusable robotic arm camera (RAC), which will take close-up images of surface and subsurface samples at a spatial resolution of 21 micron; a meteorology package (MET), which will make the first measurements of surface pressure, temperature, and winds in Mars' southern hemisphere and employ a tunable diode laser (TDL) spectrometer to measure the water-vapor concentration and isotopic composition of CO2 in the martian atmosphere; and a thermal and evolved gas analyzer (TEGA), which will use differential scanning calorimetry and TDL-evolved gas analysis to determine the concentrations of ices, adsorbed volatiles, and volatile-bearing minerals in surface and subsurface soil samples. The unique in situ measurements made by MVACS at its high-latitude landing site will define a number of important aspects of the physical, isotopic, and chemical nature of the martian near-surface and subsurface environment that will be valuable in better understanding Mars meteorites and returned samples, as well as in the search for martian resources that could be utilized by humans.

Paige, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Using Commercial Satellite Imagery to Reconstruct 3 m and Daily Spring Snow Water Equivalent

Snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution at fine spatial scales (≤10 m) is difficult to estimate due to modeling and observational constraints. However, the distribution of SWE throughout the spring snowmelt season is often correlated to the timing of snow disappearance. Here, we show that snow cover maps generated from PlanetScope's constellation of Dove Satellites can resolve the 3 m date of snow disappearance across seven alpine domains in California and Colorado. Across a 5-year period (2019–2023), the average uncertainty in the date of snow disappearance, or the period of time between the last date of observed snow cover and the first date of observed snow absence, was 3 days. Using a simple shortwave-based snowmelt model calibrated at nearby snow pillows, the PlanetScope date of snow disappearance could be used to reconstruct spring SWE. Relative to lidar SWE estimates, the SWE reconstruction had a spatial coefficient of correlation of 0.75, and SWE spatial variability that was biased by 9%, on average. SWE reconstruction biases were then improved to within 0.04 m, on average, by calibrating snowmelt rates to track the spring temporal evolution of fractional snow cover observed by PlanetScope, including fractional snow cover over the full modeling domain, and across domain subsections where snowmelt rates may differ. This study demonstrates the utility of fine-scale and high-frequency optical observations of snow cover, and the simple and annually repeatable connections between snow cover and spring snow water resources in regions with seasonal snowpack.

Justin M Pflug↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Severe droughts reduce river navigability and isolate communities in the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon basin is experiencing severe droughts that are expected to worsen with climate change. Riverine communities are especially vulnerable to these extreme events. This study investigates the experiences of Brazilian Amazonian communities during droughts occurring from 2000-2020. We assess the distribution of settlements at risk of prolonged isolation during extreme low-water periods, along with impacts reported in digital news outlets. Using historic time series of river levels from 90 gauges, we look at how long droughts lasted in regions with reported impacts. Results indicate that the droughts in 2005, 2010, and 2016 were the most severe, with over an additional month of low water levels in those years. Such drought events routinely disrupt inland water transport and isolate local populations, limiting access to essential goods (food, fuel, medicine) and basic services (healthcare, education). Given this new reality, Amazon countries must develop long-term strategies for mitigation, adaptation, and disaster response.

Geography↗
NASA NTRS2014

Clearance Analysis of Node 3 Aft CBM to the Stowed FGB Solar Array

In early 2011, the ISS Vehicle Configuration Office began considering the relocation of the Permanent Multipurpose Module (PMM) to the aft facing Common Berthing Mechanism (CBM) on Node 3 to open a berthing location for visiting vehicles on the Node 1 nadir CBM. In this position, computer-aided design (CAD) models indicated that the aft end of the PMM would be only a few inches from the stowed Functional Cargo Block (FGB) port solar array. To validate the CAD model clearance analysis, in the late summer of 2011 the Image Science and Analysis Group (ISAG) was asked to determine the true geometric relationship between the on-orbit aft facing Node 3 CBM and the FGB port solar array. The desired measurements could be computed easily by photogrammetric analysis if current imagery of the ISS hardware were obtained. Beginning in the fall of 2011, ISAG used the Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphics (DOUG) program to design a way to acquire imagery of the aft face of Node 3, the aft end-cone of Node 1, the port side of pressurized mating adapter 1 (PMA1), and the port side of the FGB out to the tip of the port solar array using cameras on the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS). This was complicated by the need to thread the SSRMS under the truss, past Node 3 and the Cupola, and into the space between the aft side of Node 3 and the FGB solar array to acquire more than 100 images from multiple positions. To minimize the number of SSRMS movements, the Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) would be attached to the SSRMS. This would make it possible to park the SPDM in one position and acquire multiple images by changing the viewing orientation of the SPDM body cameras using the pan/tilt units on which the cameras are mounted. Using this implementation concept, ISAG identified four SSRMS/SPDM positions from which all of the needed imagery could be acquired. Based on a photogrammetric simulation, it was estimated that the location of the FGB solar array could be measured within an accuracy of about 1 in. in each axis relative to the ISS Analysis Coordinate System (ISSACS). In October 2011, a proposed image-acquisition plan was drafted by ISAG and released for review. The ISS Robotics flight control team (ROBO) proposed minor changes to SPDM positions 1 and 4 to meet ISS proximity requirements. The updated image acquisition plan and draft chit were presented to and approved by the Systems Working Group (SWG) November 18 and were sent to the Vehicle Configuration Board (VCB) in early December 2011. Working with ROBO on 3 successive days (February 21, 22, and 23), ISAG collected 161 images of the ISS. Approximately 40 images were collected from each of the four different SSRMS/SPDM positions, with each set mapping the region from the Node 3 end cone, across Node 1, along the forward port side portion of the FGB, and out the port side FGB solar arrays. From this imagery, the best 80 images were selected for use in the analysis. The images were radiometrically enhanced to improve color and contrast and loaded into the FotoG analysis software along with the camera parameters and control data, which consisted of the coordinates for 54 handrail attachment bolts on the aft face of Node 3, in the ISSACS coordinate system. The results of this analysis produced the measured coordinates of 116 points distributed across the face of the FGB solar array panels (see figure 3) along with propagated uncertainty estimates in each coordinate axis. These results were sent to the ISS Vehicle Configuration Office, which sent them to the Configuration Analysis Modeling and Mass Properties (CAMMP) team for comparison with the Russian-provided CAD model for the retracted FGB solar arrays. The CAMMP analysis unexpectedly showed that the measured location of the port FGB solar array was up to 41-in. further outboard than the design and was slightly twisted about its rotational axis. The unexpected comparison results produced some initial concern regarding the accuracy of the photogrammetric measurements. To verify the measured results, ISAG personnel conducted a second analysis using just the imagery of the solar arrays in an arbitrary coordinate system defined by the three corner points of the inboard-most panel, with the design distance between points A1 and A10 as the only scale. The new measurements agreed with the original results to within less than 1 in. RMS in each axis, confirming the original solar array measurements. ISAG produced a final report for the ISS Vehicle Configuration Office documenting an apparent anomaly in the retracted configuration of the port FGB solar arrays. A copy of the measurement report was translated and sent to the Russian Space Agency. During a Vehicle Integrated Performance and Resources (VIPeR) teleconference September 24, 2012, the Russians acknowledged receipt of a translated copy of the ISAG report. The Russian representative stated that the head of the solar array design team claimed that the measured configuration was impossible unless the structure was physically broken. The Russians acknowledged that they had no expertise in photogrammetry, so the analysis technique employed was a "black box" to them, and they did not know how to use the ISAG results. They asked for a single image in which the overextension of the port solar array could be obviously seen. On November 10, 2012, during a face-to-face meeting with their Russian counterparts at JSC, ISAG presented nadir-view imagery of the FGB acquired during Space Shuttle rendezvous. Using the known width of the pressurized portion of the FGB as a scale, this analysis clearly showed that the port FGB solar array was extended outboard further than the Russian design for the retracted solar array.

Liddle, Donn↗
NASA NTRS1992

Data distribution satellite

The Data Distribution Satellite (DDS), operating in conjunction with the planned space network, the National Research and Education Network and its commercial derivatives, would play a key role in networking the emerging supercomputing facilities, national archives, academic, industrial, and government institutions. Centrally located over the United States in geostationary orbit, DDS would carry sophisticated on-board switching and make use of advanced antennas to provide an array of special services. Institutions needing continuous high data rate service would be networked together by use of a microwave switching matrix and electronically steered hopping beams. Simultaneously, DDS would use other beams and on board processing to interconnect other institutions with lesser, low rate, intermittent needs. Dedicated links to White Sands and other facilities would enable direct access to space payloads and sensor data. Intersatellite links to a second generation ATDRS, called Advanced Space Data Acquisition and Communications System (ASDACS), would eliminate one satellite hop and enhance controllability of experimental payloads by reducing path delay. Similarly, direct access would be available to the supercomputing facilities and national data archives. Economies with DDS would be derived from its ability to switch high rate facilities amongst users needed. At the same time, having a CONUS view, DDS would interconnect with any institution regardless of how remote. Whether one needed high rate service or low rate service would be immaterial. With the capability to assign resources on demand, DDS will need only carry a portion of the resources needed if dedicated facilities were used. Efficiently switching resources to users as needed, DDS would become a very feasible spacecraft, even though it would tie together the space network, the terrestrial network, remote sites, 1000's of small users, and those few who need very large data links intermittently.

Stevens, Grady H.↗