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The effects of clock errors on timescale stability

The weighting scheme for the cesium clocks and hydrogen masers constituting the USNO timing ensemble is reexamined from an empirical standpoint of maximizing both frequency accuracy and timescale uniformity. The utility of a sliding-weight relation between the masers and the cesiums is reaffirmed, but improvement is found if one incorporates inverse Allan variances for sampling times of 12 and 6 hours for the cesiums and masers, respectively, with some dependence on clock model.

Breakiron, Lee A.↗

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Price, Colin↗

IR excitation of contaminant water by oxygen for the space shuttle at low Earth orbit altitude

As the water outgas of a space shuttle passes through the rarefied atmosphere at orbital altitude, collisions occur between the gases with sufficient energy to excite infrared-active water molecules to various vibrational and rotational states. An infrared contaminant model (IR model) has been developed to study the shuttle-induced excitation and emission of water molecules outgassed from the space shuttle. The focus of the first application of the model is translation-to-vibration (T-V) energy transfer since estimates suggest that this process should dominate the production of vibrationally excited H2O under typical low Earth orbit conditions. Using the velocity and position distribution functions of interacting neutral gases obtained from a neutral gases interaction model, the spatial distributions of excitation and IR radiation from contaminant water are computed, and typical results are presented. Infrared spectral data (450 - 2500/cm), measured by the Cryogenic Infrared Radiance Instrumentation for Shuttle (CIRRIS-1A) sensor on STS-39 (April 28 to May 6, 1991) at an altitude near 265 km, are used to test model predictions. The dependence of the radiant emission structure and brightness on outgassing rates and altitudes is discussed. The time history of the contaminant water outgassing rate is inferred for STS-39, and it is compared with the mass-spectrometer-based results for STS-4 (June 26 to July 4, 1982). Also, estimates of H2O column density at mission elapsed time (MET) 50 hours are compared for missions STS-2, STS-3, STS-4, and STS-39.

Zhou, D. K.↗

Towards an MHD theory for the standoff distance of Earth's bow shock

An MHD theory is developed for the stand-off distance a(sub s) of the bow shock and the thickness delta(sub ms) of the magnetosheath, using the empirical Spreiter et al. relation delta(sub ms) = kX and the MHD density ratio X across the shock. The theory includes as special cases the well-known gasdynamic theory and associated phenomenological MHD-like models for delta(sub ms) and a(sub s). In general, however, MHD effects produce major differences from previous models, especially at low Alfven (M(sub A)) and sonic (M(sub S)) Mach numbers. The magnetic field orientation, M(sub A), M(sub S) and the ratio of specific heats gamma are all important variables of the theory. Three principal conclusions are reached. First, the gasdynamic and phenomenological models miss important dependances on field orientation and M(sub S) and generally provide poor approximations to the MHD results. Second, changes in field orientation and M(sub S) are predicted to cause factor of approximately 4 changes in delta(sub ms) at low M(sub A). Third, using Spreiter et al.'s value for k in the MHD theory leads to maximum a(sub s) values at low M(sub A) and nominal M(sub S) that are much smaller than observations and MHD simulations require. Resolving this problem requires either the modified Spreiter-like relation and larger k found in recent MHD simulations and/or breakdown in the Spreiter-like relation at very low M(sub A).

Cairns, Iver H.↗

Time delay in the Einstein ring PKS 1830-211

We present radio observations of the gravitational lens PKS 1830-211 at 8.4 and 15 GHz acquired using the Very Large Array. The observations were made over a 13 month period. Significant flux density changes over this period provide strong constraints on the time delay between the two lensed images and suffest a value of 44 +/- 9 days. This offers new direct evidence that this source is indeed a gravitational lens. The lens distance is dependent upon the model chosen, but reasonable limits on the mass of the lensing galaxy suggest that it is unlikely to be at a redshift less than a few tenths, and may well be significantly more distant.

Van Ommen, T. D.↗

Advanced controls for stability assessment of solar dynamics space power generation

In support of the power requirements for the Space Station Alpha (SSA), a joint program by the U.S. and Russia for a permanently manned space station to be launched into orbit by 1998, a robust control scheme is needed to assure the stability of the rotating machines that will be integrated into the power subsystem. A framework design and systems studies for modeling and analysis is presented. It employs classical d-q axes machine model with voltage/frequency dependent loads. To guarantee that design requirements and necessary trade studies are done, a functional analysis tool CORE is used for the study. This provides us with different control options for stability assessment. Initial studies and recommendations using advanced simulation tools are also presented. The benefits of the stability/control scheme for evaluating future designs and power management are discussed.

Momoh, James A.↗

Parallelization and Visual Analysis of Multidimensional Fields: Application to Ozone Production, Destruction, and Transport in Three Dimensions

The three-dimensional, spectral transport model used in the current project was first successfully integrated over climatological time scales by Dr. Guang Ping Lou for the simulation of atmospheric N2O using the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) 4-dimensional, assimilated wind and temperature data set. A non-parallel, FORTRAN version of this integration using a fairly simple N2O chemistry package containing only photo-chemical reactions was used to verify our initial parallel model results. The integrations reproduced the gross features of the observed stratospheric climatological N2O distributions but also simulated the structure of the stratospheric Antarctic vortex and its evolution. Subsequently, Dr. Thomas Kindler, who produced much of the parallel version of our model, enlarged the N2O model chemistry package to include N2O reactions involving O(D-1) and also introduced assimilated wind data from NASA as well as UKMO. Initially, transport calculations without chemistry were run using Carbon-14 as a non-reactive tracer gas with the result that large differences in the transport properties of the two assimilated wind data sets were apparent from the resultant Carbon-14 distributions. Subsequent calculations for N2O, including its chemistry, with the two input winds data sets with verification from UARS satellite observations have refined the transport differences between the two such that the model's steering capabilities could be used to infer the correct climatological vertical velocity fields required to support the N2O observations. During this process, it was also discovered that both the NASA and the UKMO data contained spurious values in some of the higher frequency wave components, leading to incorrect local transport calculations and ultimately affecting the large scale properties of the model's N2O distributions, particularly at tropical latitudes. Subsequent model runs with wind data that had been filtered to remove some of the high frequency components produced much more realistic N2O distributions. During the past few months, the UKMO wind data base for a complete two-year period was processed into spectral form for model use. This new version of the input transport data base now includes complete temperature fields as well as the necessary wind data. This was done to facilitate advanced chemical calculations in the parallel model which often depend upon temperature. Additional UKMO data is being added as it becomes available.

Schwan, Karsten↗

Towards an MHD Theory for the Standoff Distance of Earth's Bow Shock

A magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory is developed for the standoff distance a(s) of the bow shock and the thickness Delta(ms) of the magnetosheath, using the empirical Spreiter et al. relation Delta(ms) = kX and the MHD density ratio X across the shock. The theory includes as special cases the well-known gasdynamic theory and associated phenomenological MHD-like models for Delta(ms) and As. In general, however, MHD effects produce major differences from previous models, especially at low Alfev (Ma) and Sonic (Ms) Mach numbers. The magnetic field orientation Ma, Ms and the ratio of specific heats gamma are all important variables of the theory. In contrast, the fast mode Mach number need play no direct role. Three principle conclusions are reached. First the gasdynamic and phenomenological models miss important dependences of field orientation and Ms generally provide poor approximations to the MHD results. Second, changes in field orientation and Ms are predicted to cause factor of approximately 4 changes in Delta(ms) at low Ma. These effects should be important when predicting the shock's location or calculating gramma from observations. Third, using Spreiter et al.'s value for k in the MHD theory leads to maxima a(s) values at low Ma and nominal Ms that are much smaller than observations and MHD simulations require. Resolving this problem requires either the modified Spreiter-like relation and larger k found in recent MHD simulations and/or a breakdown in the Spreiter-like relation at very low Ma.

Carins, Iver H.↗

Analysis of Impact Induced Damage and its Effect on Structural Integrity of Space Flight Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

The objective of this research work has been to provide analytical background and support to the ongoing experimental program at NASA, White Sands Test Facility, involving testing composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV) for impact damage and cyclic pressurization. Preliminary theoretical basis, including the governing equations for a shallow shell subjected to internal pressure, has been established. Effects of the Griffith type cracks on the structural integrity of the cylindrical vessel were evaluated by methods of Fracture Mechanics. The results indicate that the effective mass of the pressure vessel is an important factor influencing the response to impact events. We also have found that the material properties of the target, contained in the constitutive equations of the composite attached to the Aluminum liner, dominate the impact event in the low velocity range, the material properties become less important, while the target mass distribution and the impactor mass become more significant as the velocity of the impactor increases. Therefore, at high-velocity impact it is not only the kinetic energy of the impactor but also its mass which has a significant effect on the dynamics of the event, and consequently on the induced damage. This work also suggests a methodology for an assessment of the rate of loading effects on the degradation of the material toughness associated with a high-velocity impact where the rate effects become significant. To model the rate dependence of the material response a viscoelastic-plastic constitutive equations were assumed, and on this basis predictions are made regarding the rate dependent material resistance curve. Other dynamic phenomena associated with the impact event have been treated in the framework of the Computational Mechanics using the courtesy of Prof. P. Guebelle and his graduate student at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who have an access to a super-fast computer located on their campus. Finally, the guidelines for a follow-up research program are provided in the body of this report. They address three major areas: theoretical research, numerical studies, and further experimental work.

Wnuk, Michael P.↗

Localized Ionospheric Particle Acceleration and Wave Acceleration of Auroral Ions: Amicist Data Set

Research supported by this grant covered two main topics: auroral ion acceleration from ELF-band wave activity, and from VLF-spikelet (lower hybrid solitary structure) wave activity. Recent auroral sounding rocket data illustrate the relative significance of various mechanisms for initiating auroral ion outflow. Two nightside mechanisms are shown in detail. The first mechanism is ion acceleration within lower hybrid solitary wave events. The new data from this two payload mission show clearly that: (1) these individual events are spatially localized to scales approximately 100 m wide perpendicular to B, in agreement with previous investigations of these structures, and (2) that the probability of occurrence of the events is greatest at times of maximum VLF wave intensity. The second mechanism is ion acceleration by broadband, low frequency electrostatic waves, observed in a 30 km wide region at the poleward edge of the arc. The ion fluxes from the two mechanisms are compared and it is shown that while lower hybrid solitary structures do indeed accelerate ions in regions of intense VLF waves, the outflow from the electrostatic ion wave acceleration region is dominant for the aurora investigated by this sounding rocket, AMICIST. The fluxes are shown to be consistent with DE-1 and Freja outflow measurements, indicating that the AMICIST observations show the low altitude, microphysical signatures of nightside auroral outflow. In this paper, we present a review of sounding rocket observations of the ion acceleration seen nightside auroral zone lower hybrid solitary structures. Observations from Topaz3, Amicist, and Phaze2 are presented on various spatial scales, including the two-point measurements of the Amicist mission. From this collection of observations, we will demonstrate the following characteristics of transverse ion acceleration (TAI) in LHSS. The ion acceleration process is narrowly confined to 90 degrees pitch angle, in spatially confined regions of up to a few hundred meters across B. The acceleration process does not affect the thermal core of the ambient distribution, and does not directly create a measurable effect on the ambient ion population outside the LHSS themselves. Within the LHSS region, it creates a high energy tail beginning at a few times the thermal ion speed. The ion acceleration events are closely associated with localized wave events. Accelerated ions bursts are also seen without a concurrent observation of a localized wave event, for two possible reasons. In some cases, the pitch angles of the accelerated tail ions are elevated above perpendicular; that is to say, the acceleration occurred below the observer and the mirror force has begun to act upon the distribution, moving it upward from the source. In other cases, the accelerated ion structure is spatially larger than the wave event structure, and the observation catches only the ion event. The occurrence rate of these ion acceleration events is related to the ambient environment in two ways: (1) its altitude dependence can be modelled with the parameter B(exp2)/n(sub e), (2) and it is highest in regions of intense VLF activity. The end result of this study of auroral ion acceleration processes is a manuscript entitled "Auroral Ion Acceleration from Lower Hybrid Solitary Structures: A Summary of Sounding Rocket Observations", by Lynch, Arnoldy, Kintner, Schuck, Bonnell, and Coffey. This manuscript has been submitted for publication to the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Lynch, Kristina A.↗

Carbon Monoxide Formation in SN 1987A

The formation of carbon monoxide in the supernova SN 1987A at 200 days is investigated. Rather than the one-zone that have previous been employed, this work utilizes a radially dependent radiative transport model to compute the temperature and ionization structure and the destruction of CO and CO+ by ultraviolet radiation. The CO profile is computed assuming chemical equilibrium. Two models for the density and abundance profiles are examined: model 10H (unmixed) and model 10HMM (mixed) of Pinto & Woosley. Sensitivity to adopted rates and temperature as it might be affected by CO cooling is examined. The models give a total mass of 10-4 M_sun at 200 days for the unmixed model, which is comparable with the estimated observed abundance by Syromilio et al. but nearly 2 orders of magnitude less than the estimated observed and that computed in thermal-chemical models by Liu & Dalgarno. The effect of different model assumptions and results concerning ionization structure and radiative transfer are discussed. We confirm that CO+ is not expected to be produced in significant amounts and that the amount of CO is sensitive to the degree of the mixing of the composition of various elements present in the ejecta.

Gearhart, Rob A.↗

The Role of Gravity Waves in Modulating Atmospheric Tides

We discuss results for the diurnal and semidiurnal tides obtained from our 3-D, time dependent numerical spectral model (NMS), extending from the ground up into the thermosphere, which incorporates Hines' Doppler spread parameterization of small scale gravity waves (GW). In the DSP, GW momentum (and energy) are conserved as the waves modulate the background flow and are filtered by the flow.As a consequence, the GW interaction tightly couples the dynamic components of the middle atmosphere with strong non-linear interactions between mean zonal circulation, tides and planetary waves to produce complicated patterns of variability much like those observed. The major conclusions are: (1) Since GW momentum is deposited in the altitude regime of increasing winds, the amplitude of the diurnal tide is amplified and its vertical wavelength is reduced at altitudes between 80 and 120 km. Wave filtering by the mean zonal circulation (with peak velocities during solstice) causes the GW flux to peak during equinox, and this produces a large semi-annual variation in the tide that has been observed on UARS. (2) Without the diurnal tide, the semidiurnal tide would also be modulated in this way. But the diurnal tide filters out the GW preferentially during equinox, so that the semidiurnal tide, at higher altitudes, tends to peak during solstice. (3) Under the influence of GW, the tides are modulated also significantly by planetary waves, with periods between 2 and 30 days, which are generated preferentially during solstice in part due to baroclinic instability.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Measuring Directional Wave Spectra and Wind Speed with a Scanning Radar Altimeter

The geometry for the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter (SRA) is shown. It transmits a 8-ns duration pulse at Ka-band (8.3 mm) and measures time of flight as it scans a 1 degree (two-way) beam from left to right across the aircraft ground track. The most recent configuration determines the surface elevation at 64 points spaced at uniform angular intervals of about 0.7 across a swath whose width is about 0.8 times the aircraft altitude. The system generates these raster lines of the surface topography beneath the aircraft at about a 10 Hz rate. In postflight processing the SRA wave topographic data are transformed with a two-dimensional Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) and Doppler corrected to produce directional wave spectra. The SRA is not absolutely calibrated in power, but by measuring the relative fall-off of backscatter with increasing incidence angle, the SRA can also determine the mean square slope (mss) of the sea surface, a surrogate for wind speed. For the slope-dependent specular point model of radar sea surface scattering, an expression approximated by a geometric optics form, for the relative variation with incidence angle of the normalized backscatter radar cross section would be sigma (sup 0) (sub rel) = sec (exp 4) theta exp (-tan squared theta/mss) where theta is the off-nadir incidence angle.

Walsh, E. J.↗

Mesosphere Dynamics with Gravity Wave Forcing: Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Tides - 1

We present results from a nonlinear, 3D, time dependent numerical spectral model (NSM), which extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Our focal point is the mesosphere that is dominated by wave interactions. We discuss diurnal and semi-diurnal tides ill the present paper (Part 1) and planetary waves in the companion paper (Part 2). To provide an understanding of the seasonal variations of tides, in particular with regard to gravity wave processes, numerical experiments are performed that lead to the following conclusions: 1. The large semiannual variations in tile diurnal tide (DT), with peak amplitudes observed around equinox, are produced primarily by GW interactions that involve, in part, planetary waves. 2. The DT, like planetary waves, tends to be amplified by GW momentum deposition, which reduces also the vertical wavelength. 3.Variations in eddy viscosity associated with GW interactions tend to peak in late spring and early fall and call also influence the DT. 4. The semidiurnal semidiurnal tide (SDT), and its phase in particular, is strongly influenced by the mean zonal circulation. 5. The SDT, individually, is amplified by GW's. But the DT filters out GW's such that the wave interaction effectively reduces the amplitude of the SDT, effectively producing a strong nonlinear interaction between the DT and SDT. 6.) Planetary waves generated internally by baroclinic instability and GW interaction produce large amplitude modulations of the DT and SDT.

Mayr, H. G.↗

The Radiative Effects of Martian Water Ice Clouds on the Local Atmospheric Temperature Profile

Mars Pathfinder made numerous discoveries, one of which was a deep temperature inversion that extended from about 15 km down to 8 km above the surface. It has been suggested by Haberle et al. (1999. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 8957-8974.) that radiative cooling by a water ice cloud may generate such an inversion. Clouds can strongly affect the local air temperature due to their ability to radiate efficiently in the infrared and due to the low air mass of the martian atmosphere, which allows the temperature to change during the relatively short lifetime of a cloud. We utilize a time-dependent microphysical aerosol model coupled to a radiative--convective model to explore the effects water ice clouds have on the local martian temperature profile. We constrain the dust and water vapor abundance using data from the Viking Missions and Mars Pathfinder. Water t ice clouds with visible optical depths of r > 0.1 form readily in these simulations. These clouds alter the local air temperature directly, through infrared cooling, and indirectly, by redistributing atmospheric dust. With this model we are able to reproduce the temperature inversions observed by Mars Pathfinder and Mars Global t Surveyor 2000 Academic Press

Colaprete, Anthony↗

Realtime Knowledge Management (RKM): From an International Space Station (ISS) Point of View

We are developing automated methods to provide realtime access to spacecraft domain knowledge relevant a spacecraft's current operational state. The method is based upon analyzing state-transition signatures in the telemetry stream. A key insight is that documentation relevant to a specific failure mode or operational state is related to the structure and function of spacecraft systems. This means that diagnostic dependency and state models can provide a roadmap for effective documentation navigation and presentation. Diagnostic models consume the telemetry and derive a high-level state description of the spacecraft. Each potential spacecraft state description is matched against the predictions of models that were developed from information found in the pages and sections in the relevant International Space Station (ISS) documentation and reference materials. By annotating each model fragment with the domain knowledge sources from which it was derived we can develop a system that automatically selects those documents representing the domain knowledge encapsulated by the models that compute the current spacecraft state. In this manner, when the spacecraft state changes, the relevant documentation context and presentation will also change.

Robinson, Peter I.↗

Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures

Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

A Web-based Collaborative Tool for Mars Analog Data Exploration

Solving today's complex research and modeling challenges are dependent on our ability to discover, access, integrate, and share information from multiple sources. The planetary sciences community is no exception'; over the last few years, the need for data mining and exploration tools that can expedite comparative studies between Martian and terrestrial analogs sites and aid the interpretation of Mars data sets has become evident. Data sharing maximizes scientific return from studies and data sets.

Necsoiu, M.↗