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NASA NTRS2006

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Vibration of a Singly-curved Thin Shell Reflector with a Unidirectional Tension Field

Increased science requirements for space-based instruments over the past few decades have lead to the increased popularity of deployable space structures constructed from thin, lightweight films. Such structures offer both low mass and the ability to be stowed inside conventional launch vehicles. The analysis in this work pertains to large, singly-curved lightweight deployable reflectors commonly used in radar antennas and space telescopes. These types of systems, which can vary a great deal in size, often have frequency requirement that must be met. This work discusses two missions that utilize this type of aperture technology, and then develops a Rayleigh-Ritz model that predicts the natural frequencies and mode shapes for a (nearly) flat and singly-curved reflector with unidirectional in-plane loading. The results are compared with NASTRAN analyses.

singly-curved shell↗

NASA NTRS2024

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗

DOE OSTI2022

Summer thaw duration is a strong predictor of the soil microbiome and its response to permafrost thaw in arctic tundra

Abstract Climate warming has increased permafrost thaw in arctic tundra and extended the duration of annual thaw (number of thaw days in summer) along soil profiles. Predicting the microbial response to permafrost thaw depends largely on knowing how increased thaw duration affects the composition of the soil microbiome. Here, we determined soil microbiome composition from the annually thawed surface active layer down through permafrost from two tundra types at each of three sites on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Variations in soil microbial taxa were found between sites up to ~90 km apart, between tundra types, and between soil depths. Microbiome differences at a site were greatest across transitions from thawed to permafrost depths. Results from correlation analysis based on multi‐decadal thaw surveys show that differences in thaw duration by depth were significantly, positively correlated with the abundance of dominant taxa in the active layer and negatively correlated with dominant taxa in the permafrost. Microbiome composition within the transition zone was statistically similar to that in the permafrost, indicating that recent decades of intermittent thaw have not yet induced a shift from permafrost to active‐layer microbes. We suggest that thaw duration rather than thaw frequency has a greater impact on the composition of microbial taxa within arctic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Soil fertility and drought interact to determine large variations in wood production for a hyperdominant Amazonian tree species

The productivity of the Amazon Rainforest is related to climate and soil fertility. However, the degrees to which these interactions influence multiannual to decadal variations in tree diameter growth are still poorly explored. To fill this gap, we used radiocarbon measurements to evaluate the variation in tree growth rates over the past decades in an important hyperdominant species, Eschweilera coriacea (Lecythidaceae), from six sites in the Brazilian Amazon that span a range of soil properties and climate. Using linear mixed-effects models, we show that temporal variations in mean annual diameter increment evaluated over a specific time period reflect interactions between soil fertility and the drought index (SPEI-Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index). Our results indicate that the growth response of trees to drought is strongly dependent on soil conditions, a facet of forest productivity that is still underexplored, and which has great potential for improving predictions of future tropical tree growth in the face of projected climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

The International Space Station and the Space Debris Environment: 10 Years On

For just over a decade the International Space Station (ISS), the most heavily protected vehicle in Earth orbit, has weathered the space debris environment well. Numerous hypervelocity impact features on the surface of ISS caused by small orbital debris and meteoroids have been observed. In addition to typical impacts seen on the large solar arrays, craters have been discovered on windows, hand rails, thermal blankets, radiators, and even a visiting logistics module. None of these impacts have resulted in any degradation of the operation or mission of the ISS. Validating the rate of small particle impacts on the ISS as predicted by space debris environment models is extremely complex. First, the ISS has been an evolving structure, from its original 20 metric tons to nearly 300 metric tons (excluding logistics vehicles) ten years later. Hence, the anticipated space debris impact rate has grown with the increasing size of ISS. Secondly, a comprehensive visual or photographic examination of the complete exterior of ISS has never been accomplished. In fact, most impact features have been discovered serendipitously. Further complications include the estimation of the size of an impacting particle without knowing its mass, velocity, and angle of impact and the effect of shadowing by some ISS components. Inadvertently and deliberately, the ISS has also been the source of space debris. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network officially cataloged 65 debris from ISS from November 1998 to November 2008: from lost cameras, sockets, and tool bags to intentionally discarded equipment and an old space suit. Fortunately, the majority of these objects fall back to Earth quickly with an average orbital lifetime of less than two months and a maximum orbital lifetime of a little more than 15 months. The cumulative total number of debris object-years is almost exactly 10, the equivalent of one piece of debris remaining in orbit for 10 years. An unknown number of debris too small to be tracked and cataloged have also been generated, but normally with even shorter orbital lifetimes. Finally, eight collision avoidance maneuvers have been performed to avoid potential collisions between ISS and large, tracked space debris. The most recent such maneuver was accomplished by ESA's Automated Transfer Vehicle, the Jules Verne, just three months before the 10th anniversary of the launch of ISS's first element.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measured and projected beam backgrounds in the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB collider

The Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB electron–positron collider aims to collect an unprecedented data set of 50 ab -1 to study CP -violation in the B -meson system and to search for Physics beyond the Standard Model. SuperKEKB is already the world’s highest-luminosity collider. In order to collect the planned data set within approximately one decade, the target is to reach a peak luminosity of 6 x 10 35 cm −2 s −1 by further increasing the beam currents and reducing the beam size at the interaction point by squeezing the betatron function down to β $^*_y$ = 0.3 mm. To ensure detector longevity and maintain good reconstruction performance, beam backgrounds must remain well controlled. We report on current background rates in Belle II and compare these against simulation. We find that a number of recent refinements have significantly improved the background simulation accuracy. Finally, we estimate the safety margins going forward. We predict that backgrounds should remain high but acceptable until a luminosity of at least 2.8 x 10 35 cm −2 s −1 is reached for β $^*_y$ = 0.6 mm. At this point, the most vulnerable Belle II detectors, the Time-of-Propagation (TOP) particle identification system and the Central Drift Chamber (CDC), have predicted background hit rates from single-beam and luminosity backgrounds that add up to approximately half of the maximum acceptable rates.

Detector background↗

NASA NTRS1993

United States Weather Research Program (USWRP)

After more than a decade of development by a broad cross-section of the U.S. atmospheric research community involved in planning for the National STORM Program, the Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research (SAR) of the Committee on Earth and Environmental Science (CEES) led the development of a strategic plan to realize the objectives of STORM so as to improve our nation's capability to provide accurate short-term forecasts of weather. This strategic plan will guide the planning and implementation of what is now called the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP). The USWRP is charged with achieving operational atmospheric prediction based on mesoscale observations and model results and establishing the scientific and technological basis for global atmospheric mesoscale prediction by the year 2000. The key scientific questions that are addressed under USWRP are discussed.

Bhumralkar, Chandrakant↗

NASA NTRS2019

Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs and Impacts on Oceanic N2O Fluxes in the Northern Indian Ocean: the Need for an Integrated Observation and Modelling Approach

Anthropogenically-derived nitrogen input to the northern Indian Ocean has increased significantly in recent decades, based on both observational and model derived estimates This external nutrient source is supplied by atmospheric deposition and riverine fluxes, and has the potential to affect the vulnerable biogeochemical systems of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, influencing productivity and oceanic production of the greenhouse-gas nitrous-oxide (N2O). We summarize current estimates of this external nitrogen source to the northern Indian Ocean from observations and models, highlight implications for regional marine N2O emissions using model-based analyses, and make recommendations for measurement and model needs to improve current estimates and future predictions of this impact. Current observationally-derived estimates of deposition and riverine nitrogen inputs are limited by sparse measurements and uncertainties on accurate characterization of nitrogen species composition. Ocean model assessments of the impact of external nitrogen sources on regional marine N2O production in the northern Indian Ocean estimate potentially significant changes but also have large associated uncertainties. We recommend an integrated program of basin-wide measurements combined with high-resolution modeling and more detailed characterization of nitrogen-cycle process to address these uncertainties and improve current estimates and predictions.

Parvadha Suntharalingam↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Status and Ambitions of the US Heavy Element Program

The aim of this whitepaper is to highlight the current capabilities and priorities of the US Heavy Element community and to provide the framework for a coordinated advancement of nuclear science from these studies. This is an organized effort to reflect on what has been achieved in the field given the recommendations and initiatives of the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan, and on what can be realized in the next decade given current and possibly expanded investments. Current investments have positioned the US community to be among the world leaders in studies of the nuclear and chemical properties of the heaviest elements. These include studies of reaction mechanisms, moving us ever closer to the “island of stability”, in spectroscopy, allowing us to better understand nuclear structure at these extreme proton numbers, in chemical behavior, looking to determine how these elements should be placed on the Periodic Table, in performing the first measurements where isotopes are directly identified by their mass numbers, and in laying the foundation for a potential US-led new element discovery experiment. At present, the highest priority of the US Heavy Element community is to capitalize on the current investments by supporting the operations of US facilities at optimal values. These facilities include the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System at Argonne National Laboratory and other Department of Energy facilities such as the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which has a dedicated superheavy element program, as well as university laboratories, including Texas A&M University. The High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is crucial to providing the radioactive isotopes required for heavy element science targets. This facility should be supported to provide the actinide materials that are essential for US-based science. Production of stable, rare isotopes for beam material, including 48 Ca, 50 Ti, 54 Cr and 58 Fe, at the Stable Isotope Production and Research Center is critical to continued research in heavy element science and should be a priority. The continued development of targets for heavy element science and retaining US-based expertise is critical for the heavy element community. This is an area that is currently under pressure. For example, the target laboratory at Argonne National Laboratory serves a broad community and is currently under threat due to loss of critical personnel. The skills needed to make targets for nuclear science and develop new targetry methods need to be supported long term at Argonne, Oak Ridge and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories as well as maintaining the programs at Oregon State University and San José State University as vital pipelines for training students. Advances in theory are the foundation to understand how nuclei behave and to predict those behaviors in new circumstances. Progress in these studies will necessitate continued and new investment and access to high-performance computing. The future health of the heavy element field is dependent on the continuous support of talented early-career professionals at all levels. It is critical that opportunities continue to be created for the next generation to become established in heavy element research so that we can ensure the field is attracting and retaining the best minds for continued success. It is also clear that to ensure diversity of ideas, perspectives and techniques, we need to recruit diverse personnel that are trained at the best facilities. The heavy element community is in support of continued investment to programs with initiatives in diversity, equity, and inclusion. Looking to the next decade of research, support needs to maintain and grow US leadership in heavy element science. Specifically, new investments in state-of-the-art instrumentation will be essential to scientific development of the field and in expanding scientific knowledge. Advances in the next generation of electron cyclotron resonance ion sources, multi-reflection time-of-flight devices, laser spectroscopy, trapping methods and next generation alpha and gamma spectroscopy systems should be prioritized.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

A thermodynamically consistent finite strain phase field approach to ductile fracture considering multi-axial stress states

Phase field models for ductile fracture have gained significant attention in the last two decades due to their ability in implicitly tracking the nucleation and propagation of cracks. However, most crack phase field formulations for elastoplastic solids focus only on the effects of plastic deformation, and do not consider the different multi-axial stress states that may arise in practical designs. In this work, a thermodynamically consistent phase field approach coupled with finite strain plasticity, considering multi-axial stress states is presented. In order to account for the coupling between plasticity and stress states, the Stress-Weighted Ductile Fracture Model (SWDFM) is utilized. The SWDFM represents a criterion for predicting ductile crack initiation under both monotonic and cyclic loadings based on histories of an internal plastic variable, stress triaxiality, and the Lode angle parameter. The excellent performance of the SWDFM for predicting ductile crack initiation motivates for its incorporation into a phase field approach for predicting both crack initiation and propagation through degradation of the fracture toughness. Moreover, based on the second law of thermodynamics, exact requirements are imposed on the rate at which the fracture toughness can evolve. Here, a novel function for degrading the plastic yield surface during the evolution of damage is introduced. This function, in line with experimental observations, leads to an accumulation of plastic deformation in damaged regions of a solid, and avoids numerical instabilities arising from concentrations of large plastic deformations in severely damaged regions. For validating the proposed model, results of computational simulations are compared to data from selected tests considering different multi-axial stress states. Comparisons of the numerical results with data from laboratory experiments demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamic insight into AnO 2 + bonding from ThH + /UH + reactions studied by inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry

The bonding mechanisms of actinides have been a focus of fundamental research over the past few decades. In the present study, reactions of the simplest actinide-containing species, ThH + and UH + , with O 2 and CO 2 are investigated by inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry. The reactions of ThH + and UH + with O 2 are efficient, and the reactions of ThH + and UH + with CO 2 display reduced reaction efficiencies. For both reactions involving CO 2 , ThO 2 + and UO 2 + are observed; however, there is a clear barrier to ThO 2 + formation whereas UO 2 + forms through an exothermic, barrierless process. The experimental observations and available thermodynamic information are used to predict the outcomes of reactions involving the later AnH + . The anticipated reaction enthalpies for Pa–Am display a clear correlation with the promotion energy of An + to a 6d 2 electronic configuration, E p (6d 2 ), although a shift in the slope of the correlation of reaction enthalpies and E p (6d 2 ) suggests that there is likely a change in bonding mechanism that starts with Np + . Similar shifts have also been noted in previous studies. Beginning with Np + , the 6d orbitals become less accessible than they are for the earlier An + as measured by E p (6d 2 ), and this accessibility of the 6d orbitals may drive actinide bonding.

5f orbitals↗

NASA NTRS1987

A review of recent activities in the NASA CELSS program

A CELSS (Controlled Ecological Life Support System) is a device that utilizes photosynthetic organisms and light energy to regenerate waste materials into oxygen and food for a crew in space. The results of studies with the CELSS program suggest that a bioregenerative life support system is a useful and effective method of regenerating consumable materials for crew sustenance. The data suggests that the operation of a CELSS in space is practical if plants can be made to behave predictably in the space environment. Much of the work centers on the biological components of the CELSS system. Ways of achieving high efficiency and long term stability of all components of the system are examined. Included are explorations of the conversion of nonedible cellulose to edible materials, nitrogen fixation by biological and chemical methods, and methods of waste processing. A description is provided of the extent to which a bioregenerative life support system can meet the constraints of the space environment, and the degree is assessed to which system efficiency and stability can be increased during the next decade.

Macelroy, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Unified Viscoplastic Behavior of Metal Matrix Composites

The need for unified constitutive models was recognized more than a decade ago in the results of phenomenological tests on monolithic metals that exhibited strong creep-plasticity interaction. Recently, metallic alloys have been combined to form high-temperature ductile/ductile composite materials, raising the natural question of whether these metallic composites exhibit the same phenomenological features as their monolithic constituents. This question is addressed in the context of a limited, yet definite (to illustrate creep/plasticity interaction) set of experimental data on the model metal matrix composite (MMC) system W/Kanthal. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that a unified viscoplastic representation, extended for unidirectional composites and correlated to W/Kanthal, can accurately predict the observed longitudinal composite creep/plasticity interaction response and strain rate dependency. Finally, the predicted influence of fiber orientation on the creep response of W/Kanthal is illustrated.

Arnold, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation Measurements from Space: Why Do We Need Them?

Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to be launched in the early next decade.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A review of nonlinear constitutive models for metals

Over the past two decades a number of thermomechanical constitutive theories have been proposed for viscoplastic metals. These models are in most cases similar in that they utilize a set of internal state variables which provide locally averaged representations of microphysical phenomena such as dislocation rearrangement and grain boundary sliding. The state of development of several of these models is now at the point where accurate theoretical solutions can be obtained for a wide variety of structural problems at elevated temperatures. The fundamentals of viscoplasticity are briefly reviewed and a general framework is outlined. Several of the more prominent models are reviewed, and predictions from models are compared to experimental results.

Allen, David H.↗