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DOE OSTI2026

ROADRUNNER uranium nitride MiniFuel: Experimental design, fabrication and pre-irradiation baseline characterization for accelerated burnup testing

Uranium nitride (UN) is a promising fuel candidate for advanced reactor systems owing to its high uranium density and thermal conductivity; however, its qualification remains constrained by the scarcity of well-controlled irradiation performance data. Here, to address this limitation, the ROADRUNNER (Research On ADvancing the peRformance of UraNium Nitrides in Extreme enviRonments) campaign employs the MiniFuel platform in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to enable accelerated burnup irradiation testing under tightly controlled and largely isothermal conditions. This paper presents the experimental design, fuel fabrication, and pre-irradiation baseline characterization of the ROADRUNNER UN MiniFuel campaign. Thirty-six UN minidisc specimens were fabricated with systematically varied as-fabricated density (86–96% of theoretical density), carbon impurity content (961–5240 ppm), oxygen content (≤ ∼2000 ppm), and grain size (2.5–24 μm). The irradiation matrix spans nominal fuel temperatures of 873 K, 1173 K, and 1473 K and target burnups of 3.75%, 6.0%, and 7.5% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Neutronic and thermal analyses were performed to define specimen-specific burnup accumulation and temperature histories, establishing the boundary conditions for subsequent in-pile behavior. Comprehensive pre-irradiation characterization—including dimensional metrology, density verification, impurity analysis, X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, X-ray computed tomography, and confocal profilometry—provides a detailed baseline for post-irradiation examination. Pre-irradiation data were further used to generate predictive estimates of fission gas release and swelling using existing empirical correlations. This quantitative comparison reveals substantial inter-model divergence at intermediate and elevated temperatures that exceeds propagated input uncertainties, highlighting structural gaps in the historical irradiation database. The ROADRUNNER irradiation campaign is currently underway in HFIR, with initial firs cycle completed in late 2025 and remaining targets scheduled through 2027. The experimental design and baseline dataset presented here establish the framework needed to interpret forthcoming post-irradiation measurements and to provide discriminating data for the validation and refinement of physics-based UN fuel performance models.

Lopes, Denise Adorno [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the Simplified Assessment Peak Equivalent Stress Design Limit Probability of Failure

The ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III Division 5 Subsection HH Subpart A (HHA) outlines requirements and qualification methods for graphite core components in high temperature reactor environments. One such structural qualification method is the Simplified Assessment outlined in HHA-3220, which represents a comparison of service level specific equivalent stresses to allowable stress values derived from target probability of failures (POFs). The target POF is based on the structural reliability class (SRC) for the components and service condition of interest, and is used to establish design limits for combined membrane and peak equivalent stresses. Combined membrane stress limits are derived from two parameter Weibull distribution fits of the graphite grade specific tensile strength data and the target POF. The combined membrane stress limits are then scaled based on the ratio of flexural strength to tensile strength (referred hereinafter as Rtf) to establish the corresponding peak equivalent stress limits. It is desired that the target POF is at least maintained for both combined membrane and peak equivalent design limits, especially with the use of Rtf. The assessment presented herein examines tensile and flexural data for medium and fine grade graphites relative to the calculated combined membrane and peak equivalent stress limits per HHA-3220 and illustrates the simplified assessment method results in anticipated, or at least conservative, peak equivalent design stress limits.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Finding Liebig’s law of the minimum

Abstract Liebig’s law of the minimum (LLM) is often used to interpret empirical biological growth data and model multiple substrates co‐limited growth. However, its mechanistic foundation is rarely discussed, even though its validity has been questioned since its introduction in the 1820s. Here we first show that LLM is a crude approximation of the law of mass action, the state of art theory of biochemical reactions, and the LLM model is less accurate than two other approximations of the law of mass action: the synthesizing unit model and the additive model. We corroborate this conclusion using empirical data sets of algae and plants grown under two co‐limiting substrates. Based on our analysis, we show that when growth is modeled directly as a function of substrate uptake, the LLM model improperly restricts the organism to be of fixed elemental stoichiometry, making it incapable of consistently resolving biological adaptation, ecological evolution, and community assembly. When growth is modeled as a function of the cellular nutrient quota, the LLM model may obtain good results at the risk of incorrect model parameters as compared to those inferred from the more accurate synthesizing unit model. However, biogeochemical models that implement these three formulations are needed to evaluate which formulation is acceptably accurate and their impacts on predicted long‐term ecosystem dynamics. In particular, studies are needed that explore the extent to which parameter calibration can rescue model performance when the mechanistic representation of a biogeochemical process is known to be deficient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Milestone 1.2.15: Feasibility of In Situ Accelerated Aluminum Coupon Radiolysis by Synchrotron X-Rays

Extended dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) requires an assessment of the radiolytic generation of molecular hydrogen gas (H2) from the ASNF’s corrosion layers. H2 accumulation can potentially lead to storage canister embrittlement/rupture and the accumulation of flammable gas mixtures in accident scenarios. To date, computational models have been developed for the prediction of radiolytic H2 generation from samples exposed to lower absorbed dose regimes (up to ~3 MGy). However, greater accuracy is needed for higher absorbed doses (> 25 MGy) where the concentration of H2 ultimately reaches a steady-state. Data in this area is limited due to the amount of time taken (months) to accumulate such high gamma doses. Furthermore, a recent study observed radiation-induced damage to the surface of pre-corroded aluminum alloy coupons at high absorbed gamma doses. Despite this observation and its implications, there is currently no computational connection between the radiolytic formation of H2 and changes in the composition and morphology of the cladding’s corrosion layers with absorbed dose. To develop a better understanding of the processes and effects described above, the present study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of leveraging synchrotron x-ray capabilities for coupled accelerated irradiation and in situ surface characterization of ASNF alloys. To that end, National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) beamtime was secured and a series of aluminum alloy 1100 (AA1100) wires, prepared under a variety of conditions, were interrogated using ex situ x-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and ex situ and in situ XRD capabilities at the NSLS-II x-ray powder diffraction (XPD) beamline. Results indicated that performing synchrotron XRD using the available XPD beamline configuration can provide sufficient radiation dose but cannot discern changes in the composition and morphology of sample corrosion layers. Additionally, ex situ XRD and SEM data from Idaho National Laboratory (INL) indicated that the pre-corrosion of AA1100 wires did not generate an appreciably thick corrosion layer, as compared with previous aluminum coupon studies. These thinner surface corrosion layers were not sufficient for detection by both ex situ and in situ synchrotron XRD, specifically under consideration of the NSLS-II XPD beamline’s configuration primarily capturing information from the sample’s bulk material, i.e., aluminum metal. In summary, the use of the NSLS-II XPD beamline for promoting accelerated radiolysis and in situ surface characterization is not appropriate for this program’s goals.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Factors influencing mode choice of adults with travel-limiting disability

Introduction: Despite the plethora of research devoted to analyzing the impact of disability on travel behavior, not enough studies have investigated the varying impact of social and environmental factors on the mode choice of people with disabilities that restrict their ability to use transportation modes efficiently. This research gap can be addressed by investigating the factors influencing the mode choice behavior of people with travel-limiting disabilities, which can inform the development of accessible and sustainable transportation systems. Additionally, such studies can provide insights into the social and economic barriers faced by this population group, which can help policymakers to promote social inclusion and equity. Method: This study utilized a Random Parameters Logit model to identify the individual, trip, and environmental factors that influence mode selection among people with travel-limiting disabilities. Here, using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey data for New York State, which included information on respondents with travel-limiting disabilities, the analysis focused on a sample of 8,016 people. In addition, climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were integrated as additional explanatory variables in the modeling process. Results: The results revealed that people with disabilities may be inclined to travel longer distances walking in the absence of suitable accommodation facilities for other transportation modes. Furthermore, people were less inclined to walk during summer and winter, indicating a need to consider weather conditions as a significant determinant of mode choice. Moreover, low-income people with disabilities were more likely to rely on public transport or walking. Conclusion: Based on this study’s findings, transportation agencies could design infrastructure and plan for future expansions that is more inclusive and accessible, thus catering to the mobility needs of people with travel-limiting disabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Early Results from GLASS-JWST. II. NIRCam Extragalactic Imaging and Photometric Catalog

We present the reduced images and multiwavelength catalog of the first JWST NIRCam extragalactic observations from the GLASS Early Release Science Program, obtained as coordinated parallels of the NIRISS observations of the Abell 2744 cluster. Images in seven bands (F090W, F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W, and F444W) have been reduced using an augmented version of the official JWST pipeline; we discuss the procedures adopted to remove or mitigate defects in the raw images. We obtain a multiband catalog by means of forced aperture photometry on point-spread function (PSF)-matched images at the position of F444W-detected sources. The catalog is intended to enable early scientific investigations, and it is optimized for faint galaxies; it contains 6368 sources, with limiting magnitude 29.7 at 5 σ in F444W. We release both images and catalog in order to allow the community to become familiar with the JWST NIRCam data and evaluate their merit and limitations given the current level of knowledge of the instrument.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

New Report Highlights LAMP's Role as a Robust and Reliable System for Wave Energy Converter Testing

Harnessing the power of waves requires more than just putting devices in the ocean - it takes tools that can refine and accelerate innovation before the first deployment. That's where NLR's largeamplitude motion platform, or LAMP, comes in. LAMP is a six-degree-of-freedom motion system designed to replicate the response of a wave energy converter (WEC) device in realistic ocean conditions. By letting researchers evaluate WEC performance in a safe, controlled lab environment before moving offshore, LAMP helps accelerate innovation while reducing risk. An NLR report, titled Initial Characterization of the NLR LargeAmplitude Motion Platform (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy26osti/93733.pdf), provides a deeper understanding of LAMP's capabilities and also lays the groundwork for future advancements in WEC testing methodologies. Researchers studied LAMP's amplitude and frequency limits across different payloads and collected data from 16 test profiles. Testing demonstrated that platform accuracy remained consistent across all payloads evaluated; researchers expect similar accuracy up to LAMP's 10,000-kilogram capacity limit. The measured position limits for single degrees of freedom experienced by WECs, including surge, sway, heave, roll, pitch, and yaw, also exceeded the original manufacturer specifications, providing new insight into the true boundaries of the system.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lessons learned from the two largest Galaxy morphological classification catalogues built by convolutional neural networks

ABSTRACT We compare the two largest galaxy morphology catalogues, which separate early- and late-type galaxies at intermediate redshift. The two catalogues were built by applying supervised deep learning (convolutional neural networks, CNNs) to the Dark Energy Survey data down to a magnitude limit of ∼21 mag. The methodologies used for the construction of the catalogues include differences such as the cutout sizes, the labels used for training, and the input to the CNN – monochromatic images versus gri-band normalized images. In addition, one catalogue is trained using bright galaxies observed with DES (i < 18), while the other is trained with bright galaxies (r < 17.5) and ‘emulated’ galaxies up to r-band magnitude 22.5. Despite the different approaches, the agreement between the two catalogues is excellent up to i < 19, demonstrating that CNN predictions are reliable for samples at least one magnitude fainter than the training sample limit. It also shows that morphological classifications based on monochromatic images are comparable to those based on gri-band images, at least in the bright regime. At fainter magnitudes, i > 19, the overall agreement is good (∼95 per cent), but is mostly driven by the large spiral fraction in the two catalogues. In contrast, the agreement within the elliptical population is not as good, especially at faint magnitudes. By studying the mismatched cases, we are able to identify lenticular galaxies (at least up to i < 19), which are difficult to distinguish using standard classification approaches. The synergy of both catalogues provides an unique opportunity to select a population of unusual galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

LANSCE CCL Performance Limits

This report summarizes the performance limits of the LANSCE Coupled-Cavity Linac (CCL). These results are captured or summarized directly from the references cited. This report was written in support of the LANSCE Modernization Project (LAMP). Many factors contribute to the performance limits of the CCL accelerator system. One performance limit is set by the CCL mechanical structure and available cooling. Heating of the structure is ultimately linked to the operating RF duty factor of the CCL. Another performance limit is set by the maximum RF and beam duty factors that can be supported by the 805-MHz klystrons and associated HVDC power supplies. The RF and HVDC systems also set limits for the maximum peak beam current that can be accelerated in the CCL. And finally, a maximum beam current limit is set by the beam dynamics determined by the details of the CCL physics design (number of cells per CCL tank, accelerating gradients, magnetic focusing lattice, beam losses, etc.). This limit can be informed by both simulation results and beam measurement data, if available. A detailed explanation of each performance limit is given in the sections below. The results are summarized in the table below. In all cases, it is assumed that the CCL and the RF system are operating in their nominal beam production configuration – nominal magnet set points and nominal cavity fields, unless otherwise specified.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hubble Space Telescope Observations of GW170817: Complete Light Curves and the Properties of the Galaxy Merger of NGC 4993

We present the complete set of Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the binary neutron star merger GW170817 and its optical counterpart AT 2017gfo. Including deep template imaging in F814W, F110W, F140W, and F160W at 3.4 yr post-merger, we reanalyze the full light curve of AT 2017gfo across 12 bands from 5 to 1273 rest-frame days after merger. We obtain four new detections of the short γ-ray burst 170817A afterglow from 109 to 170 rest-frame days post-merger. These detections are consistent with the previously observed β = -0.6 spectral index in the afterglow light curve with no evidence for spectral evolution. We also analyze our limits in the context of kilonova afterglow or IR dust echo emission but find that our limits are not constraining for these models. We use the new data to construct deep optical and IR stacks, reaching limits of M = -6.3 to -4.6 mag, to analyze the local environment around AT 2017gfo and low surface brightness features in its host galaxy NGC 4993. We rule out the presence of any globular cluster at the position of AT 2017gfo to 2.3 × 10$^{4}$L$_{⊙}$, including those with the reddest V - H colors. Finally, we analyze the substructure of NGC 4993 in deep residual imaging and find shell features that extend up to 71."8 (14.2 kpc) from NGC 4993. The shells have a cumulative stellar mass of 6.3 × 10$^{8}$M$_{⊙}$, roughly 2% of NGC 4993, and mass-weighted ages of >3 Gyr. We conclude that it was unlikely that the GW170817 progenitor system formed in the galaxy merger.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eureka: Enabling Fine-Grained Access and Range Queries on Compressed Scientific Data via Data-Index Co-Compression

Handling large-scale scientific data in high-performance computing (HPC) environments poses significant challenges, including excessive I/O, high storage costs, and slow query performance. Traditional approaches often require full data decompression and scans, making them impractical for real-time or interactive analysis. To address these limitations, we introduce Eureka, a unified data-index co-compression framework that enables fine-grained access and efficient range queries on compressed scientific datasets. Eureka integrates spatial domain decomposition with block-wise error-bounded lossy compression to support selective decompression. It constructs a hierarchical AVL-tree index during compression to capture block-level value ranges, enabling fast pruning during query execution. To reduce metadata overhead, the index itself is also compressed while ensuring recall-preserving results. Experiments on six diverse HPC simulation datasets show that Eureka achieves up to 25x data compression and over 300x index compression, surpassing state-of-the-art compressors such as SZ3 and ZFP in rate-distortion performance. Additionally, Eureka delivers over 30x speedup for low-selectivity range queries, making it a scalable and efficient solution for modern scientific data analysis.

Yan, Ning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving the Accuracy of Nearest-Neighbor Classification Using Principled Construction and Stochastic Sampling of Training-Set Centroids

A conceptually simple way to classify images is to directly compare test-set data and training-set data. The accuracy of this approach is limited by the method of comparison used, and by the extent to which the training-set data cover configuration space. Here we show that this coverage can be substantially increased using coarse-graining (replacing groups of images by their centroids) and stochastic sampling (using distinct sets of centroids in combination). We use the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data sets to show that a principled coarse-graining algorithm can convert training images into fewer image centroids without loss of accuracy of classification of test-set images by nearest-neighbor classification. Distinct batches of centroids can be used in combination as a means of stochastically sampling configuration space, and can classify test-set data more accurately than can the unaltered training set. On the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data sets this approach converts nearest-neighbor classification from a mid-ranking- to an upper-ranking member of the set of classical machine-learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Program: Stacking analysis with Hβ, Mg ii , and C iv

ABSTRACT Reverberation mapping is the leading technique used to measure direct black hole masses outside of the local Universe. Additionally, reverberation measurements calibrate secondary mass-scaling relations used to estimate single-epoch virial black hole masses. The Australian Dark Energy Survey (OzDES) conducted one of the first multi-object reverberation mapping surveys, monitoring 735 AGN up to z ∼ 4, over 6 years. The limited temporal coverage of the OzDES data has hindered recovery of individual measurements for some classes of sources, particularly those with shorter reverberation lags or lags that fall within campaign season gaps. To alleviate this limitation, we perform a stacking analysis of the cross-correlation functions of sources with similar intrinsic properties to recover average composite reverberation lags. This analysis leads to the recovery of average lags in each redshift-luminosity bin across our sample. We present the average lags recovered for the Hβ, Mg ii, and C iv samples, as well as multiline measurements for redshift bins where two lines are accessible. The stacking analysis is consistent with the Radius–Luminosity relations for each line. Our results for the Hβ sample demonstrate that stacking has the potential to improve upon constraints on the R–L relation, which have been derived only from individual source measurements until now.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Local Observation of Atomic Ordering in Alloys via the Radial Distribution Function: A Computational and Experimental Approach

As a powerful analytical technique, atom probe tomography (APT) has the capacity to acquire the spatial distribution of millions of atoms from a complex sample. However, extracting information at the Ångstrom-scale on atomic ordering remains a challenge due to the limits of the APT experiment and data analysis algorithms. The development of new computational tools enable visualization of the data and aid understanding of the physical phenomena such as disorder of complex crystalline structures. Here, we report progress towards this goal using two steps. We describe a computational approach to evaluate atomic ordering in the crystal structure by generating radial distribution functions (RDF). Atomic ordering is rendered as the Fractional Cumulative Radial Distribution Function (FCRDF) which allows for greater visibility of local compositions at short range in the structure. Further, we accommodate in the analysis additional parameters such as uncertainty in the atomic coordinates and the atomic abundance to ascertain short-range ordering in APT data sets. We applied the FCRDF analysis to synthetic and experimental APT data sets for Ni 3 Al. The ability to observe a signal of atomic ordering consistent with the known L1 2 crystal structure is heavily dependent on spatial uncertainty, irrespective of abundance. Detection of atomic ordering is subject to an upper limit of spatial uncertainty of atoms described with Gaussian distributions with a standard deviation of 1.3 Å. The FCRDF analysis was also applied to the APT data set for a six-component alloy, Al 1.3 CoCrCuFeNi. In this case, we are currently able to visualize elemental segregation at the nanoscale, though unambiguous identification of atomic ordering at the Ångstrom (nearest-neighbor) scale remains a goal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A nomogram for prediction of stage III/IV gastric cancer outcome after surgery: A multicenter population‐based study

Abstract Most patients with gastric cancer (GC) are first diagnosed at stage III‐IV and surgery resection remains the primary therapeutic modality for these patients. However, clinical staging used for prediction of those patients provides limited information. We collected clinicopathological data and disease‐progression information from 508 patients with stage III‐IV GC at three Chinese hospitals and 1298 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Based on the stepwise multivariate regression model, we constructed a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The performance of discrimination for this model was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and receiver‐operating characteristic curve (ROC), and was validated using calibration plots. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that tumor size, age at diagnosis, N stage, tumor grade, and distant metastases were outstanding independent prognostic factors of stage III‐IV GC. We developed a nomogram based on these five prognostic predictors. In the training set, the C‐index of the nomogram was 0.645 (95% CI: 0.611‐0.679), which was higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM system alone (sixth TNM: 0.544; seventh TNM: 0.575; eighth TNM: 0.568). Similar results were observed in validation cohort. Moreover, calibration blots demonstrated good consistency between the actual and predicted OS probabilities. According to the nomogram, GC individuals could be classified into three groups (low‐, middle‐, and high‐risk) ( P < .001). Our nomogram complements the current staging system for prediction of individual prognosis with stage III‐IV GC, and may be helpful for making individualized treatment decisions.

Gao, Zhiying↗