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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

Analysis of X-15 Landing Approach and Flare Characteristics Determined from the First 30 Flights

The approach and flare maneuvers for the first 30 flights of the X-15 airplane and the various control problems encountered are discussed. The results afford a relatively good cross section of landing conditions that might be experienced with future glide vehicles having low lift-drag ratios. Flight-derived drag data show that preflight predictions based on wind-tunnel tests were, in general, somewhat higher than the values measured in flight. Depending on configuration, the peak lift-drag ratios from flight varied from 3.5 to 4.5 as compared with a predicted range of from 3.0 to 4.2. By employing overhead, spiral-type patterns beginning at altitudes as high as 40,000 feet, the pilots were consistently able to touch down within about +/-1,000 feet of a designated point. A typical flare was initiated at a "comfortable" altitude of about 800 feet and an indicated airspeed of approximately 300 knots., which allowed a margin of excess speed. The flap and gear were extended when the flare was essentially completed, and an average touchdown was accomplished at a speed of about 185 knots indicated airspeed, an angle of attack of about 7 deg, and a rate of descent of about 4 feet per second. In general, the approach and landing characteristics were predicted with good accuracy in extensive preflight simulations. F-104 airplanes which simulated the X-15 landing characteristics were particularly valuable for pilot training.

Matranga, Gene J.↗

Electrostatic Hazard Considerations for ODC Solvent Replacement Selection Testing

ODC solvents are used to clean many critical substrates during solid rocket motor production operations. Electrostatic charge generation incidental to these cleaning operations can pose a major safety issue. Therefore, while determining the acceptability of various ODC replacement cleaners, one aspect of the selection criteria included determining the extent of electric charge generation during a typical solvent cleaning operation. A total of six candidate replacement cleaners, sixteen critical substrates, and two types of cleaning swatch materials were studied in simulated cleaning operations. Charge generation and accumulation effects were investigated by measuring the peak voltage and brush discharging effects associated with each cleaning process combination. In some cases, charge generation was found to be very severe. Using the conductivity information for each cleaner, the peak voltage data could in some cases, be qualitatively predicted. Test results indicated that severe charging effects could result in brush discharges that could potentially result in flash fire hazards when occurring in close proximity to flammable vapor/air mixtures. Process controls to effectively mitigate these hazards are discussed.

Fairbourn, Brad↗

Simulation of Synthetic Jets in Quiescent Air Using Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations

We report research experience in applying an Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) solver for the prediction of time-dependent flows in the presence of an active flow control device. The configuration under consideration is a synthetic jet created by a single diaphragm piezoelectric actuator in quiescent air. Time-averaged and instantaneous data for this case were obtained at Langley Research Center, using multiple measurement techniques. Computational results for this case using one-equation Spalart-Allmaras and two-equation Menter s turbulence models are presented here along with comparisons with the experimental data. The effect of grid refinement, preconditioning and time-step variation are also examined.

Vatsa, Veer N.↗

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Stress Rupture Testing

This paper reports stress rupture testing of Kevlar(TradeMark) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) at NASA White Sands Test Facility. This 6-year test program was part of the larger effort to predict and extend the lifetime of flight vessels. Tests were performed to characterize control parameters for stress rupture testing, and vessel life was predicted by statistical modeling. One highly instrumented 102-cm (40-in.) diameter Kevlar(TradeMark) COPV was tested to failure (burst) as a single-point model verification. Significant data were generated that will enhance development of improved NDE methods and predictive modeling techniques, and thus better address stress rupture and other composite durability concerns that affect pressure vessel safety, reliability and mission assurance.

Greene, Nathanael J.↗

Parameter Uncertainty for Aircraft Aerodynamic Modeling using Recursive Least Squares

A real-time method was demonstrated for determining accurate uncertainty levels of stability and control derivatives estimated using recursive least squares and time-domain data. The method uses a recursive formulation of the residual autocorrelation to account for colored residuals, which are routinely encountered in aircraft parameter estimation and change the predicted uncertainties. Simulation data and flight test data for a subscale jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the approach. Results showed that the corrected uncertainties matched the observed scatter in the parameter estimates, and did so more accurately than conventional uncertainty estimates that assume white residuals. Only small differences were observed between batch estimates and recursive estimates at the end of the maneuver. It was also demonstrated that the autocorrelation could be reduced to a small number of lags to minimize computation and memory storage requirements without significantly degrading the accuracy of predicted uncertainty levels.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

Numerical Study of Solidification Crack Susceptibility in Novel Refractory Alloy Systems

Calculation of Phase Diagrams (CALPHAD) -based solidification computa­tions, such as Scheil or equilibrium computations, have been utilized to propose crack solidification susceptibility indices (CSSIs) of cracking. These CSSIs have been proposed in order to predict the cracking susceptibility of an alloy in the solidification range, as a function of its solidification frac­tion and as dependent upon its wt.% elemental composition through the CALPHAD computation & via comparative methods between one composition & the next. Recently Kou at al. have proposed a novel CSSI where the gradient of the e.x. Scheil solidification curve is obtained in the critical solidification cracking region of greater than 0.95 fraction of solid. Therefore, a direct Temperature dependent metric is now available for the prediction, and presumably the control, of solidification cracking. In this TM, the researchers apply this Kou gradient method to refractory alloys for the first time & discuss justification for the approach via Spearman rank correlation with Varestraint cracking test data as well as by comparisons with Thermocalc based vulnerability time CSSI calculations. A Python Pycalphad module example of the approach is provided & can be utilized as an open-source resource that utilizes also open-source available thermodynamical databases, making the CSSI quantitative aspect of ICME more available and freely available to practitioners.

ICME integrated computational materials engineerin↗

Flight Metal Plasma Thruster (MPT) Development, Qualification, and Thrust Measurement Campaign

A torsional thrust stand, calibrated for impulse bits in the range of 0.1mNs -0.5 mNs, was used to measure impulse bits during two campaigns at the NASA/GRC VF-3 Vacuum test Facility. Metal Plasma Thrusters (MPTs) with targets of Molybdenum, Copper and Stainless Steel (as used in upper stages of launch vehicles that are abandoned in LEO) were tested. This paper describes data from Mo targets (called pucks). The Cu and ss data will be presented elsewhere. Model predictions (based on a simple circuit model and published plasma parameters) were validated by data from the calibrated torsional thrust stand. The Metal Plasma Thruster uses solid metal propellant, hence requires no liquids, gases, flow valves or flow controls and has no moving parts. Total impulse ~5000Ns/U provides orbit raising and drag compensation capability.

Electric Propulsion↗

Flight MPT Development, Qualification and Thrust Measurement Campaign

A torsional thrust stand, calibrated for impulse bits in the range of 0.1mNs -0.5 mNs, was used to measure impulse bits during two campaigns at the NASA/GRC VF-3 Vacuum test Facility. Metal Plasma Thrusters (MPTs) with targets of Molybdenum, Copper and Stainless Steel (as used in upper stages of launch vehicles that are abandoned in LEO) were tested. This paper describes data from Mo targets (called pucks). The Cu and ss data will be presented elsewhere. Model predictions (based on a simple circuit model and published plasma parameters) were validated by data from the calibrated torsional thrust stand. The Metal Plasma Thruster uses solid metal propellant, hence requires no liquids, gases, flow valves or flow controls and has no moving parts. Total impulse ~5000Ns/U provides orbit raising and drag compensation capability.

Electric Propulsion↗

Rancor-HUNTER: A Virtual Plant and Operator Environment for Predicting Human Performance

Advances in simulation capabilities to model physical systems have outpaced the development of simulations for humans using those physical systems. There is an argument that the infinite span of potential human behaviors inherently render human modeling more challenging than physical systems. Despite this challenge, the need for modeling humans interacting with these complex systems is paramount. As technologies have improved, many of the failure modes originating from the physical systems have been solved. This means the overall proportion of human errors has increased, such that it is not uncommon to be the primary driver of system failure in modern complex systems. Moreover, technologies such as automated systems may introduce emerging contexts that can cause new, unanticipated modes of human error. Therefore, it is now more important than ever to develop models of human behavior to realize overall system error reductions and achieve established safety margins. To support new and novel concepts of operations for the anticipated wave of advanced nuclear reactor deployments, human factors and human reliability analysis researchers need to develop advanced simulation-based approaches. This talk presents a simulation environment suitable to both collect data and then perform Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate human performance and develop better models of human behavior. Specifically, the Rancor Microworld Simulator models a complex energy production system in a simplified manner. Rancor includes computer-based procedures, which serve as a framework to automatically classify human behaviors without manual, subjective experimenter coding during scenarios. This method supports a detailed level of analysis at the task level. It is feasible for collecting large sample sizes required to develop quantitative modelling elements that have historically challenged traditional full-scope simulator study approaches. Additionally, the other portion of this experimental platform, the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), is presented to show how the collected data can be used to evaluate novel scenarios based on the contextual factors, or performance shaping factors, derived from Rancor simulations. Rancor-HUNTER is being used to predict operator performance with new procedures, such as results from control room modernization or new-build situations. Rancor-HUNTER is also proving a useful surrogate platform to model human performance for other complex systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Integration of a grey-box refrigerated case model in EnergyPlus via Python plugin

Commercial buildings, in particular grocery stores (due mainly to their large refrigeration load), provide opportunities for energy cost reductions. Grocery stores could offer substantial load flexibility to the power grid through participation in demand response programs because of their usage patterns and relatively high energy intensity. This load flexibility could come from modifying the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, refrigeration systems, or both. Although estimation of the HVAC system’s load flexibility potential is relatively targeted in the literature, estimating load flexibility of refrigeration systems is nascent and has been a challenge, in part because of the lack of proper simulation tools that capture the dynamics in the refrigeration cases. The existing refrigerated case model within EnergyPlus, a whole building energy simulation program, assumes a constant case temperature throughout the simulation period and does not explicitly model the cycling of the compressor serving the refrigerated case. In addition, it does not encompass modeling of temperatures of the product inside the refrigerated case. This difference between modeled and actual operation can be a barrier to the development of demand control algorithm and accurate analysis of load flexibility potential. In this paper, we present a grey-box model for modeling refrigerated cases in grocery stores, which include medium temperature and low temperature. Four cases are modeled; two are low-temperature closed cases and two are medium-temperature cases with one closed and one open. Data from an experimental facility are used to train and test the models. Results demonstrate the efficacy of the grey-box models in predicting the temperatures. This model is integrated into EnergyPlus to capture the dynamic effects of case temperature on the environment and enhance the calculation of sensible and latent heat exchange with the environment (case credits). These enhancements can be leveraged more broadly to model advanced refrigeration controls such as defrost, develop and test unique algorithms that could affect refrigeration interactions with HVAC, and refine store design for any commercial building with refrigeration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Final Approach Trajectory Model for Current Operations

Predicting accurate trajectories with limited intent information is a challenge faced by air traffic management decision support tools in operation today. One such tool is the FAA's Terminal Proximity Alert system which is intended to assist controllers in maintaining safe separation of arrival aircraft during final approach. In an effort to improve the performance of such tools, two final approach trajectory models are proposed; one based on polynomial interpolation, the other on the Fourier transform. These models were tested against actual traffic data and used to study effects of the key final approach trajectory modeling parameters of wind, aircraft type, and weight class, on trajectory prediction accuracy. Using only the limited intent data available to today's ATM system, both the polynomial interpolation and Fourier transform models showed improved trajectory prediction accuracy over a baseline dead reckoning model. Analysis of actual arrival traffic showed that this improved trajectory prediction accuracy leads to improved inter-arrival separation prediction accuracy for longer look ahead times. The difference in mean inter-arrival separation prediction error between the Fourier transform and dead reckoning models was 0.2 nmi for a look ahead time of 120 sec, a 33 percent improvement, with a corresponding 32 percent improvement in standard deviation.

Gong, Chester↗

Targeted curation of the gut microbial gene content modulating human cardiovascular disease

Despite the promise of the gut microbiome to predict human health, few studies expose the molecular-scale processes underpinning such forecasts. We mined over 200,000 gut-derived genomes from cultivated and uncultivated microbial lineages to inventory the gut microorganisms and their gene content that control trimethylamine-induced cardiovascular disease. We assigned an atherosclerotic profile to the 6,341 microbial genomes that encoded metabolisms associated with heart disease, creating the Methylated Amine Gene Inventory of Catabolism database (MAGICdb). From microbiome gene expression data sets, we demonstrate that MAGICdb enhanced the recovery of disease-relevant genes and identified the most active microorganisms, unveiling future therapeutic targets. From the feces of healthy and diseased subjects, we show that MAGICdb predicted cardiovascular disease status as effectively as traditional lipid blood tests. This functional microbiome catalog is a public, exploitable resource, designed to enable a new era of microbiota-based therapeutics and diagnostics

metatranscriptomics↗

Lunar laser ranging data processing in a Unix/X windows environment

In cooperation with the NASA Crustal Dynamics Project initiative placing workstation computers at each of its laser ranging stations to handle data filtering and normalpointing, MLRS personnel have developed a new generation of software to provide the same services for the lunar laser ranging data type. The Unix operating system and X windows/Motif provides an environment for both batch and interactive filtering and normalpointing as well as prediction calculations. The goal is to provide a transportable and maintainable data reduction environment. This software and some sample displays are presented. that the lunar (or satellite) datacould be processed on one computer while data was taken on the other. The reduction of the data was totally interactive and in no way automated. In addition, lunar predictions were produced on-site, another first in the effort to down-size historically mainframe-based applications. Extraction of earth rotation parameters was at one time attempted on site in near-realtime. In 1988, the Crustal Dynamics Project SLR Computer Panel mandated the installation of Hewlett-Packard 9000/360 Unix workstations at each NASA-operated laser ranging station to relieve the aging controller computers of much of their data and communications handling responsibility and to provide on-site data filtering and normal pointing for a growing list of artificial satellite targets. This was seen by MLRS staff as an opportunity to provide a better lunar data processing environment as well.

Ricklefs, Randall L.↗

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

route advisories↗

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

operational acceptability↗

Predicting the viability of beta-lactamase: How folding and binding free energies correlate with beta-lactamase fitness

One of the long-standing holy grails of molecular evolution has been the ability to predict an organism’s fitness directly from its genotype. With such predictive abilities in hand, researchers would be able to more accurately forecast how organisms will evolve and how proteins with novel functions could be engineered, leading to revolutionary advances in medicine and biotechnology. In this work, we assemble the largest reported set of experimental TEM-1 β-lactamase folding free energies and use this data in conjunction with previously acquired fitness data and computational free energy predictions to determine how much of the fitness of β-lactamase can be directly predicted by thermodynamic folding and binding free energies. We focus upon β-lactamase because of its long history as a model enzyme and its central role in antibiotic resistance. Based upon a set of 21 β-lactamase single and double mutants expressly designed to influence protein folding, we first demonstrate that modeling software designed to compute folding free energies such as FoldX and PyRosetta can meaningfully, although not perfectly, predict the experimental folding free energies of single mutants. Interestingly, while these techniques also yield sensible double mutant free energies, we show that they do so for the wrong physical reasons. We then go on to assess how well both experimental and computational folding free energies explain single mutant fitness. We find that folding free energies account for, at most, 24% of the variance in β-lactamase fitness values according to linear models and, somewhat surprisingly, complementing folding free energies with computationally-predicted binding free energies of residues near the active site only increases the folding-only figure by a few percent. This strongly suggests that the majority of β-lactamase’s fitness is controlled by factors other than free energies. Overall, our results shed a bright light on to what extent the community is justified in using thermodynamic measures to infer protein fitness as well as how applicable modern computational techniques for predicting free energies will be to the large data sets of multiply-mutated proteins forthcoming.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Transport Aircraft System Identification from Wind Tunnel Data

Recent studies have been undertaken to investigate and develop aerodynamic models that predict aircraft response in nonlinear unsteady flight regimes for transport configurations. The models retain conventional static and rotary dynamic terms but replace conventional acceleration terms with more general indicial functions. In the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls project of the NASA Aviation Safety Program one aspect of the research is to apply these current developments to transport configurations to facilitate development of advanced controls technology. This paper describes initial application of a more general modeling methodology to the NASA Langley Generic Transport Model, a sub-scale flight test vehicle.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗