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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Sampling Errors of SSM/I and TRMM Rainfall Averages: Comparison with Error Estimates from Surface Data and a Sample Model

Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Specific Effect of Peculiar Velocities on Dark-energy Constraints from Type Ia Supernovae

Peculiar velocities of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) host galaxies affect the dark-energy parameter constraints in a small but very specific way: the parameters are biased in a single direction in parameter space that is a priori knowable for a given SN Ia data set. We demonstrate the latter fact with a combination of inference from a cosmological N-body simulation with overwhelming statistics applied to the Pantheon SN Ia data set, then confirm it by simple quantitative arguments. Here, we quantify small modifications to the current analyses that would ensure that the effect of cosmological parameters is essentially guaranteed to be negligible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending Parsimonious Bayesian Inference

Parsimonious Bayesian inference is a theoretical framework for efficient data assimilation that seeks to balance increased consistency between predictions and training data against corresponding increases in model complexity. Within this framework, over-training is understood as optimization that encodes excessive information within model parameters while only achieving small improvements between predictions and training data. This project aims to develop practical methods of limiting excess model information during optimization. One key observation is that practical heuristics for parsimonious learning in high-dimensions must balance expressivity, i.e. the ability of the model to capture diverse predictions with only a few non-zero parameters, against discoverability, i.e. the ability to train the model with gradient-based optimization and drive parameters to low information states. As such, we developed logical activation functions that are able to adaptively approximate arbitrary truth tables that define Boolean logic operations within a probabilistic framework. These functions have demonstrated the ability to learn exclusive disjunction (XOR) and conditioned disjunction (if [condition] then [result_if_true] else [result_if_false]) within a single layer of a neural network. To efficiently exploit these activation functions to drive parsimonious learning required several other advances within the domain of variational inference. The most efficient form of complexity suppression is structured sparsification, driving most model parameters to zero while achieving the structural coherence among nonzeros needed for bandwidth reduction. Such models are not only far more efficient at suppressing information-theoretic complexity, they also reduce the other forms of complexity (computations, communication, storage, and the number of dependencies needed to evaluate predictions). Aiming to support enhanced sparsification, this project examined new approaches to high-dimensional variational inference that allow us to calibrate and control parameter uncertainty during optimization. By identifying which parameters can sustain sparsifying perturbations with little impact on prediction quality, we can develop better pruning strategies by framing them as approximate Bayesian inference. These advances also open paths to mitigate concerns with deploying advanced learning methods in resource-constrained environments, such as running models on power-limited or communication-limited devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Profile Total Ozone from SBUV (v8.6) with GOME-Type and Ground-Based Total Ozone for a 16-Year Period (1996 to 2011)

This paper describes the comparison of the variability of total column ozone inferred from the three independent multi-year data records, namely, (i) Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) v8.6 profile total ozone, (ii) GTO (GOME-type total ozone), and (iii) ground-based total ozone data records covering the 16-year overlap period (March 1996 through June 2011). Analyses are conducted based on area-weighted zonal means for 0-30degS, 0-30degN, 50-30degS, and 30-60degN. It has been found that, on average, the differences in monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between −0.3 and 0.8% and are well within 1 %. For GTO minus SBUV, the standard deviations and ranges (maximum minus minimum) of the differences regarding monthly zonal mean total ozone vary between 0.6-0.7% and 2.8-3.8% respectively, depending on the latitude band. The corresponding standard deviations and ranges regarding the differences in monthly zonal mean anomalies show values between 0.4-0.6% and 2.2-3.5 %. The standard deviations and ranges of the differences ground-based minus SBUV regarding both monthly zonal means and anomalies are larger by a factor of 1.4-2.9 in comparison to GTO minus SBUV. The ground-based zonal means demonstrate larger scattering of monthly data compared to satellite-based records. The differences in the scattering are significantly reduced if seasonal zonal averages are analyzed. The trends of the differences GTO minus SBUV and ground-based minus SBUV are found to vary between −0.04 and 0.1%/yr (−0.1 and 0.3DU/yr). These negligibly small trends have provided strong evidence that there are no significant time-dependent differences among these multiyear total ozone data records. Analyses of the annual deviations from pre-1980 level indicate that, for the 15-year period of 1996 to 2010, all three data records show a gradual increase at 30-60degN from −5% in 1996 to −2% in 2010. In contrast, at 50-30degS and 30degS- 30degN there has been a leveling off in the 15 years after 1996. The deviations inferred from GTO and SBUV show agreement within 1 %, but a slight increase has been found in the differences during the period 1996-2010.

trends↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing inference of segmentation on high-resolution images in MLExchange

MLExchange is a machine learning (ML) operations platform providing web user-interfaces (UIs) for data visualization and analysis pipelines at synchrotron facilities. Among these UIs is the segmentation app which helps synchrotron users utilize ML algorithms to automatically segment high-resolution scientific images with minimal manual annotation effort. In this work, we share code optimizations that significantly speed up the segmentation inference workflow of large data in short time. By optimizing the sequence of CPU-GPU data transfers and introducing CPU parallelization to key operations, we improve the per-device, per-image frame computational efficiency and observe close to 3×$$\times$$ speedup over the original segmentation inference workflow run time when utilizing a single GPU. Further adaptations enabling multi-GPU inference yield more than 40×$$\times$$ speedup with 100 GPUs compared to the optimized single GPU inference workflow. This acceleration of the segmentation inference workflow will provide MLExchange users with easy access to segmentation results with little wait time.

Lu, Shizhao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chromatin structure predicts survival in glioma patients

The pathological changes in epigenetics and gene regulation that accompany the progression of low-grade to high-grade gliomas are under-studied. The authors use a large set of paired atac-seq and RNA-seq data from surgically resected glioma specimens to infer gene regulatory relationships in glioma. Thirty-eight glioma patient samples underwent atac-seq sequencing and 16 samples underwent additional RNA-seq analysis. Using an atac-seq/RNA-seq correlation matrix, atac-seq peaks were paired with genes based on high correlation values (|r 2 | > 0.6). Samples clustered by IDH1 status but not by grade. Surprisingly there was a trend for IDH1 mutant samples to have more peaks. The majority of peaks are positively correlated with survival and positively correlated with gene expression. Constructing a model of the top six atac-seq peaks created a highly accurate survival prediction model (r 2 = 0.68). Four of these peaks were still significant after controlling for age, grade, pathology, IDH1 status and gender. Grade II, III, and IV (primary) samples have similar transcription factors and gene modules. However, grade IV (recurrent) samples have strikingly few peaks. Patient-derived glioma cultures showed decreased peak counts following radiation indicating that this may be radiation-induced. This study supports the notion that IDH1 mutant and IDH1 wildtype gliomas have different epigenetic landscapes and that accessible chromatin sites mapped by atac-seq peaks tend to be positively correlated with expression. The data in this study leads to a new model of treatment response wherein glioma cells respond to radiation therapy by closing open regions of DNA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Multi-system report integration using blackboards

Blackboards are an Al problem solving methodology. A blackboard system consists of a structured data base (the blackboard) holding input and derived inferences and a collection of procedures for deriving inferences (knowledge sources). Each knowledge source is specialized to operate on some portion of the blackboard. The knowledge sources are invoked opportunistically as the information on the blackboard increases. The methodology is well suited to integrating multiple streams of fully reduced and qualitatively different data such as active radar track reports, passive electronic intelligence reports, and human intelligence reports about enemy intentions. This paper sketches the nature of the blackboard problem solving methodology with an emphasis on those features suiting it to such applications. The sketch is illustrated with examples from a relatively simple multi-system report integration problem. Relevant applications currently under development at Stanford's Knowledge Systems Laboratory are also described.

Delaney, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning robust parameter inference and density reconstruction in flyer plate impact experiments

Estimating physical parameters or material properties from experimental observations is a common objective in many areas of physics and material science. In many experiments, especially in shock physics, radiography is the primary means of observing the system of interest. However, radiography does not provide direct access to key state variables, such as density, which prevents the application of traditional parameter estimation approaches. Here we focus on flyer plate impact experiments on porous materials, and resolving the underlying parameterized equation of state (EoS) and crush porosity model parameters given radiographic observation(s). We use machine learning as a tool to demonstrate with high confidence that using only high impact velocity data does not provide sufficient information to accurately infer both EoS and crush model parameters, even with fully resolved density fields or a dynamic sequence of images. We thus propose an observable data set consisting of low and high impact velocity experiments/simulations that capture different regimes of compaction and shock propagation, and proceed to introduce a generative machine learning approach which produces a posterior distribution of physical parameters directly from radiographs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in estimating parameters from simulated flyer plate impact experiments, and show that the obtained estimates of EoS and crush model parameters can then be used in hydrodynamic simulations to obtain accurate and physically admissible density reconstructions. Finally, we examine the robustness of the approach to model mismatches, and find that the learned approach can provide useful parameter estimates in the presence of out-of-distribution radiographic noise and previously unseen physics, thereby promoting a potential breakthrough in estimating material properties from experimental radiographic images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Algorithm Optimally Orders Forward-Chaining Inference Rules

People typically develop knowledge bases in a somewhat ad hoc manner by incrementally adding rules with no specific organization. This often results in a very inefficient execution of those rules since they are so often order sensitive. This is relevant to tasks like Deep Space Network in that it allows the knowledge base to be incrementally developed and have it automatically ordered for efficiency. Although data flow analysis was first developed for use in compilers for producing optimal code sequences, its usefulness is now recognized in many software systems including knowledge-based systems. However, this approach for exhaustively computing data-flow information cannot directly be applied to inference systems because of the ubiquitous execution of the rules. An algorithm is presented that efficiently performs a complete producer/consumer analysis for each antecedent and consequence clause in a knowledge base to optimally order the rules to minimize inference cycles. An algorithm was developed that optimally orders a knowledge base composed of forwarding chaining inference rules such that independent inference cycle executions are minimized, thus, resulting in significantly faster execution. This algorithm was integrated into the JPL tool Spacecraft Health Inference Engine (SHINE) for verification and it resulted in a significant reduction in inference cycles for what was previously considered an ordered knowledge base. For a knowledge base that is completely unordered, then the improvement is much greater.

James, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2024

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference analysis of jet quenching using inclusive jet and hadron suppression measurements

The JETSCAPE Collaboration reports a new determination of the jet transport parameter $\hat{q}$ in the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) using Bayesian inference, incorporating all available inclusive hadron and jet yield suppression data measured in heavy-ion collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This multi-observable analysis extends the previously published JETSCAPE Bayesian inference determination of $\hat{q}$, which was based solely on a selection of inclusive hadron suppression data. jetscape is a modular framework incorporating detailed dynamical models of QGP formation and evolution, and jet propagation and interaction in the QGP. Virtuality-dependent partonic energy loss in the QGP is modeled as a thermalized weakly coupled plasma, with parameters determined from Bayesian calibration using soft-sector observables. This Bayesian calibration of $\hat{q}$ utilizes active learning, a machine-learning approach, for efficient exploitation of computing resources. The experimental data included in this analysis span a broad range in collision energy and centrality, and in transverse momentum. In order to explore the systematic dependence of the extracted parameter posterior distributions, several different calibrations are reported, based on combined jet and hadron data; on jet or hadron data separately; and on restricted kinematic or centrality ranges of the jet and hadron data. Tension is observed in comparison of these variations, providing new insights into the physics of jet transport in the QGP and its theoretical formulation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A review of imputation strategies for isobaric labeling-based shotgun proteomics

The throughput efficiency and increased depth of coverage provided by isobaric-labeled proteomics measurements have led to increased usage of these techniques. However, the structure of missing data is uniquely different than unlabeled studies. In this review, we compare the efficacy of nine imputation methods on a CPTAC proteomics iTRAQ dataset. Imputation methods were evaluated with regard to accuracy, variability, statistical hypothesis test inference and run time over datasets consisting of varying number of iTRAQ plexes and percentages of missing data. In general, expectation maximization and random forest imputation methods yielded the best performances, and constant-based methods performed poorly consistently across all dataset sizes and percentages of missing values. For datasets with small sample sizes and higher percentages of missing data, results indicate that statistical inference with no imputation may be preferable. Based on the findings in this review, there are core imputation methods that perform higher for isobaric-labeled proteomics data, but great care and consideration as to whether imputation should be used should be given for datasets comprised of a small number of samples, as well as to factors such as computational time and reproducibility of imputation values.

Bramer, Lisa M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological preference for a negative neutrino mass

The most precise determination of the sum of neutrino masses from cosmological data, derived from analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic acoustic oscillations (BAO) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), favors a value below the minimum inferred from neutrino flavor oscillation experiments. We explore which data is most responsible of this puzzling aspect of the current constraints on neutrino mass and whether it is related to other anomalies in cosmology. We demonstrate conclusively that the preference for negative neutrino masses is a consequence of larger than expected lensing of the CMB in both the two- and four-point lensing statistics. Furthermore, we show that this preference is robust to changes in likelihoods of the BAO and CMB optical depth analyses given the available data. We then show that this excess clustering is not easily explained by changes to the expansion history and is likely distinct from the preference for for dynamical dark energy in DESI BAO data. Finally, we discuss how future data may impact these results, including an analysis of Planck CMB with mock DESI 5-year data. Here, we conclude that the negative neutrino mass preference is likely to persist even as more cosmological data is collected in the near future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using the VAHIRR Radar Algorithm to Investigate Lightning Cessation

Accurately determining the threat posed by lightning is a major area for improved operational forecasts. Most efforts have focused on the initiation of lightning within a storm, with far less effort spent investigating lightning cessation. Understanding both components, initiation and cessation, are vital to improving lightning safety. Few organizations actively forecast lightning onset or cessation. One such organization is the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45WS has identified that charged anvil clouds remain a major threat of continued lightning and can greatly extend the window of a potential lightning strike. Furthermore, no discernable trend of total lightning activity has been observed consistently for all storms. This highlights the need for more research to find a robust method of knowing when a storm will cease producing lightning. Previous lightning cessation work has primarily focused on forecasting the cessation of cloud-to -ground lightning only. A more recent, statistical study involved total lightning (both cloud-to-ground and intracloud). Each of these previous works has helped the 45WS take steps forward in creating improved and ultimately safer lightning cessation forecasts. Each study has either relied on radar data or recommended increased use of radar data to improve cessation forecasts. The reasoning is that radar data is able to either directly or by proxy infer more about dynamical environment leading to cloud electrification and eventually lightning cessation. The authors of this project are focusing on a two ]step approach to better incorporate radar data and total lightning to improve cessation forecasts. This project will utilize the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) algorithm originally developed during the Airborne Field Mill II (ABFM II) research project. During the project, the VAHIRR product showed a trend of increasing values with increases in the electric field magnitude above 3 kV/m. An extreme value analysis showed that VAHIRR values less than or equal to 10 dBZ-km showed that the probability of having an electric field magnitude larger than 3 kV/m was less than one in ten thousand. VAHIRR also was found to be sensitive at indicating anvil clouds that posed a threat of initiating a lightning flash. This project seeks to use VAHIRR to analyze its utility as a lightning cessation tool, particularly dealing with the threat posed by detached anvils. The results from this project will serve as a baseline effectiveness of radar ]based lightning cessation algorithms. This baseline will be used in the second, and concurrent work by the co ]author fs who are developing a lightning cessation algorithm based on dual ]polarimetric radar data. Ultimately, an accurate method for identifying lightning cessation can save money on lost manpower time as well as greatly improve lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Low-mass Companions to Kepler Objects of Interest Observed with APOGEE-N

We report the characterization of 28 low-mass (0.02 M ⊙ ≤ M 2 ≤ 0.25 M ⊙ ) companions to Kepler objects of interest (KOIs), eight of which were previously designated confirmed planets. These objects were detected as transiting companions to Sunlike stars (G and F dwarfs) by the Kepler mission and are confirmed as single-lined spectroscopic binaries in the current work using the northern multiplexed Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment near-infrared spectrograph (APOGEE-N) as part of the third and fourth Sloan Digital Sky Surveys. We have observed hundreds of KOIs using APOGEE-N and collected a total of 43,175 spectra with a median of 19 visits and a median baseline of ~1.9 yr per target. We jointly model the Kepler photometry and APOGEE-N radial velocities to derive fundamental parameters for this subset of 28 transiting companions. The radii for most of these low-mass companions are overinflated (by ~10%) when compared to theoretical models. Tidally locked M dwarfs on short-period orbits show the largest amount of inflation, but inflation is also evident for companions that are well separated from the host star. We demonstrate that APOGEE-N data provide reliable radial velocities when compared to precise high-resolution spectrographs that enable detailed characterization of individual systems and the inference of orbital elements for faint (H > 12) KOIs. The data from the entire APOGEE-KOI program are public and present an opportunity to characterize an extensive subset of the binary population observed by Kepler.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

KilonovaNet : Surrogate models of kilonova spectra with conditional variational autoencoders

ABSTRACT Detailed radiative transfer simulations of kilonova spectra play an essential role in multimessenger astrophysics. Using the simulation results in parameter inference studies requires building a surrogate model from the simulation outputs to use in algorithms requiring sampling. In this work, we present kilonovanet, an implementation of conditional variational autoencoders (cVAEs) for the construction of surrogate models of kilonova spectra. This method can be trained on spectra directly, removing overhead time of pre-processing spectra, and greatly speeds up parameter inference time. We build surrogate models of three state-of-the-art kilonova simulation data sets and present in-depth surrogate error evaluation methods, which can in general be applied to any surrogate construction method. By creating synthetic photometric observations from the spectral surrogate, we perform parameter inference for the observed light-curve data of GW170817 and compare the results with previous analyses. Given the speed with which kilonovanet performs during parameter inference, it will serve as a useful tool in future gravitational wave observing runs to quickly analyse potential kilonova candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗