Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cost model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗

Technoeconomic Cost Analysis of NREL Concentrating Solar Power Gen3 Liquid Pathway: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is leading the liquid (molten salt) power tower pathway for the U.S. Department of Energy's concentrating solar power Gen3 initiative. The Gen3 liquid pathway required updated designs to three major components: the tower and receiver, the thermal energy storage (TES) tanks, and the power cycle. We assume a 100 MWe net system output and used the System Advisor Model (SAM) to complete a technoeconomic cost analysis of the Gen3 liquid pathway design and estimate its LCOE. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of that analysis.

chloride salt↗

WaterTAP Technical Brief: Ion Exchange Model Demonstration and Optimization

Ion exchange is an important water treatment process for removal of targeted contaminants, including those associated with hardness. In this report, we introduce the ion exchange model developed for WaterTAP and present some example analysis of Ca 2+ removal for 0.1 MGD and 10 MGD systems. The model is a single-component, steady-state implementation that enables process optimization based on the influent ion concentration, resin capacity, and resin selectivity. Based on a survey of costing references for ion exchange, the WaterTAP ion exchange model returns reasonable estimates for the levelized cost of water (LCOW) of an ion exchange process, and performs as expected when critical design parameters, such as the resin capacity and selectivity, are varied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter with Reduced Order Control Variates

This work develops a new multi delity ensemble Kalman lter (MFEnKF) algorithm based on linear control variate framework. The approach allows for rigorous multi delity extensions of the EnKF, where the uncertainty in coarser delities in the hierarchy of models represent control variates for the uncertainty in ner delities. Small ensembles of high delity model runs are com- plemented by larger ensembles of cheaper, lower delity runs, to obtain much improved analyses at only small additional computational costs. We investigate the use of reduced order models as coarse delity control variates in the MFEnKF, and provide analyses to quantify the improvements over the traditional ensemble Kalman lters. We apply these ideas to perform data assimilation with a quasi-geostrophic test problem, using direct numerical simulation and a corresponding POD-Galerkin reduced order model. Numerical results show that the two- delity MFEnKF provides better analyses than existing EnKF algorithms at comparable or reduced computational costs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗

Integration of cryogenic energy storage with renewables and power plants: Optimal strategies and cost analysis

Energy storage is critical for overcoming challenges associated with the intermittency and the variable availability of renewable sources for decarbonizing the energy sector. Cryogenic energy storage (CES) is of interest due to its high technology readiness level, no geographical limitations, and moderate round-trip efficiency. The time-varying nature of demands and renewable availability needs to be considered at the design and integration stages of energy storage. We develop a mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) model to obtain the energy storage costs on a daily basis for different scenarios that typically arise over an entire year. Using this optimization-based framework, we address key decision-making questions towards energy transition: What is the energy cost when CES is integrated with renewables and power plants? How does each scenario affect the overall energy cost? How much storage is needed for complete transition to renewables? What is the optimal integration towards 100% renewable energy? What are the optimal storage designs for both renewables and fossil-based power generation with current and future energy demands? Here, we discuss different scenarios and solutions to these questions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Incorporating bubble growth volume feedback to improve simulation of the response of a structure containing liquid and gas to sudden energy input

The SNS target module is a stainless-steel structure that contains and directs mercury. The mercury is struck with short, intense proton pulses to create neutrons. The pulses deposit energy and cause loads on the target structure and mercury cavitation. Helium bubbles are introduced into the mercury to reduce loads and cavitation. This gas complicates the prediction of the target module’s physical response. The current method used to simulate the structural response to the proton pulse incorporates a simple but effective approach to approximate mercury cavitation effects. This method cannot account for the changes from injected non-condensable gas. The ability to model the target vessel response is a prerequisite for estimating its life. Known approaches for simulating a bubbly fluid mixture’s response are computationally expensive and impractical for detailed engineering models. A constitutive model is proposed for target mercury with injected gas bubbles, with the intent of providing more accurate mercury–vessel response behavior without the computing costs required to track individual bubbles. The model’s assumptions and a computational model embodiment are described. The bubbly mercury computational model is subjected to test problems to assess its potential utility. Here, the model was able to better predict the effect of gas on wave propagation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Land Use in Computable General Equilibrium Models

Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functions are widely used to allocate land across uses in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. These models fail to maintain area of land in balance. Several ways have been used or offered to fix this problem. This paper first examines the extent to which the CET approach may generate imbalances in area of land and identifies determinants of such imbalances. It then evaluates the merits, properties, and welfare impacts of the available approaches that restore area of land in balance. We show that heterogeneity in land prices (land rents) is the main source of imbalance in area of land, not the curvature of the CET function. Furthermore, we show that the available approaches that restore area of land in balance either introduce ad hoc adjustments in land allocation or undermine the conventional welfare assessments of the CET results and ignore the opportunity costs of land transformation. The CGE models which applied stochastic productivity distribution functions to allocate land among uses maintain area of land in balance, but they suffer from important limitations and ignore costs of land transformation.

Taheripour, Farzad↗

Techno-economic feasibility of geothermal energy production using inactive oil and gas wells for district heating and cooling systems in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Oil and gas wells have been drilled in the United States and often encounter hot co-produced water possibly suitable for geothermal direct-use applications. Here this study evaluated geothermal resources, heating and cooling demand, and techno-economic potential of four oil and gas wells repurposed for geothermal energy production to serve two public schools and 250 nearby houses in Tuttle, Oklahoma, USA. Subsurface geology in the study area primarily consists of Permian to Mississippian sandstone and limestone formations approximately from 2 km to 3.5 km depth. With a geothermal gradient of 25.3 °C/km, the temperature of geothermal energy production was estimated as 68.2 °C at 2.1 km. The potential of calcite scaling within boreholes and pipes was minimal. Using the characterized reservoir properties, techno-economic analyses were conducted for evaluating levelized costs of geothermal energy production for direct-use heating and cooling and district heating systems with five different production scenarios. Heating and cooling demand in two schools and 250 houses and additional 0.3 MW and 0.6 MW base heating loads for potential geothermal direct-use applications in the study area were also incorporated in the modeling. Results indicated that the levelized cost of heating of geothermal district heating systems utilizing existing wells were significantly lower than those of conventional geothermal energy systems that include well drillings. The geothermal energy production with doublet and quartet configurations was generally sufficient to supply total annual heating demand in the district, while a peaking boiler was used to supply peak loads. Doublet configurations showed higher production temperature with a lower thermal drawdown than the quartet configurations. The doublet system at 2.1 km production depth with 9.3 kg/s flow rate represented the optimal levelized cost of $71/MWh and 91.2% utilization factor. These results imply that the Tuttle geothermal district heating system is techno-economically feasible and comparable to geothermal district heating systems in the United States and the regional natural gas rate for residentials by recycling inactive oil and gas wells with no drillings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗

Integrated U.S. nationwide corridor charging infrastructure planning for mass electrification of inter-city trips

This study introduces an integrated modeling framework to evaluate long-term national corridor charging infrastructure requirements in the United States to support the growing inter-city charging demand with the rapid growth in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market. The core model is an optimization model that considers spatial and temporal dimensions and models heterogeneous behaviors between travelers. The model also introduces the travelers’ inconvenience cost function by linking travelers’ acceptance of the charging infrastructure with exogenous technology and social factors. The inconvenience cost function simulates mode choice between BEVs and alternative modes by heterogenous travelers. We applied the framework to assess the inter-regional charging infrastructure requirements for the entire U.S. mainland interstate highway network. We evaluated impacts on the infrastructure design and its public acceptance with changes in policy, technology, and demographic characteristics, and we also quantified the importance of modeling full-scale inter-regional charging infrastructure requirements compared to the conventional regional level analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Model of metabolism and gene expression predicts proteome allocation in Pseudomonas putida

Abstract The genome-scale model of metabolism and gene expression (ME-model) forPseudomonas putidaKT2440,iPpu1676-ME, provides a comprehensive representation of biosynthetic costs and proteome allocation. Compared to a metabolic-only model,iPpu1676-ME significantly expands on gene expression, macromolecular assembly, and cofactor utilization, enabling accurate growth predictions without additional constraints. Multi-omics analysis using RNA sequencing and ribosomal profiling data revealed translational prioritization inP. putida, with core pathways, such as nicotinamide biosynthesis and queuosine metabolism, exhibiting higher translational efficiency, while secondary pathways displayed lower priority. Notably, the ME-model significantly outperformed the M-model in alignment with multi-omics data, thereby validating its predictive capacity. Thus,iPpu1676-ME offers valuable insights intoP. putida’s proteome allocation and presents a powerful tool for understanding resource allocation in this industrially relevant microorganism.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗

Community Solar Program Design Considerations & Modeling Inputs

Designing and modeling a community solar (CS) program is a complex process with numerous variable inputs that are interconnected. Modeling a CS program can be useful to inform the programs design itself while also providing stakeholders of all types with information. Accurate data inputs and assumptions are key to ensuring that a model is informative and as representative of real market conditions as possible. This report is an exploration of community solar program modeling considerations, especially as it relates to data inputs such as capital costs, administrative fees, and subscription size, using a CS program in North Carolina as a case study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reduced Models for Chemical Kinetics derived from Parallel Ensemble Simulations of Stirred Reactors

Detailed chemical kinetic models are essential to improve the predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and to impact the development of next generation combustion technologies. However, such detailed kinetic models are beyond the reach of CFD codes due to the computational cost of transporting additional chemical degrees of freedom. Reduced order models for combustion kinetics exploit the presence of lower dimensional manifolds in the state space and require far fewer number of scalars to be transported as part of CFD simulations. In this paper, we describe the software infrastructure developed to allow large ensembles of stirred reactor configurations with detailed chemical kinetics. The canonical reactor simulations are incorporated in a workflow with sparse grid and data reduction methodologies aimed at development of reduced order models. We present results from analyzing the results of the stirred reactor calculations for syngas mixture using principal component analysis (PCA) and neural network methodologies. The results show that nonlinear autoencoder model can surpass PCA in representing the original dataset with far fewer degrees of freedom.

Zhang, Pei↗

2021 Component Innovation Awardee: Windurance, LLC

Distributed wind turbine manufacturers seeking to enter the market are often hampered by two challenges: not enough capital and no specific expertise in developing certified electronic equipment. A harsh reality is that off-the-shelf power electronics are neither certified nor cost-effective. This lack of certified controller equipment in the distributed wind energy industry adds expense and impedes market penetration related to certification for individual wind turbines, wind system projects, and installations. Normally, these certification costs would be borne repeatedly by individual turbine manufacturers or developers on a model-by-model or project-by-project basis, resulting in cost and time delays as well as uncertainty and risk for project developers and prospective owners. Windurance seeks to eliminate these challenges by developing and obtaining third-party certification of a standardized wind turbine controller. This will facilitate development, certification, and production while supporting efficiencies not easily achievable by individual manufacturers. Windurance's Distributed Wind Industry Turbine Controller will enable manufacturers to apply proprietary turbine- specific configurations and functionality. When applicable, manufacturers can expand on a Windurance-provided software framework to add unique or proprietary functionality.

CIP↗

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Active Learning Surrogates for Integrating Electron Microscopy and Computational Insights from Simulations in Autonomous Experiments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with simulations and experiments has great potential to accelerate scientific discovery across technology and pharmaceuticals. However, the gap between simulations and experiments is challenging due to disparities in time and scale, making it difficult to estimate properties like energy and electronic states from experiments, and to provide feedback based on theoretical insights.Our research addresses the challenge by developing unique deep kernel based surrogate models that learns from microscopic images, mapping structural features to energy differences from defect formation. We start with full-training using simulated images to determine optimal settings, establishing a baseline for active learning. Using these settings from the baseline, active learning is trained, and predicts structures along simulation trajectories based on uncertainty and energetic stability, thus reducing data requirements, simulation time and computational costs. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a low average error margin of approximately 0.03 meV, indicating good performance. To enhance feature extraction and reconstruction capabilities, we developed an autoencoder-decoder as additional surrogate to create latent space to capture essential features, enabling precise comparisons between simulations and experiments. The results from this model achieved a reconstruction loss of around 0.2 and accurately reconstructed molecular structures.Overall, this work advances the steering of experiments through computational simulations by employing a surrogate models that actively predicts the trajectories of structural evolution, achieving time-to-solution comparable to experimental measurements.

Saranathan, Gayathri [Hewlett-Packard]↗

Key Drivers for Offshore Wind Deployment in the Western United States

The western coast of the United States has abundant natural resources, including wind, sun, and water. Despite strong ocean winds, offshore wind energy (OSW) in the Western United States is in the early stages of technology development due largely to the deep water off the coast, which requires floating platforms rather than fixed‐bottom turbines. Floating OSW increases the technical difficulty of installation and thus the cost relative to both fixed‐bottom OSW and land‐based turbines. OSW is a potential generation option to help meet increasing demand on the west coast of the United States because it likely has fewer land‐use conflicts than other technologies and complements sources in the existing electricity supply by providing energy during times of high system stress. This paper examines the possible drivers and barriers to OSW deployment on the West Coast using the National Laboratory of the Rockies' state‐of‐the‐art capacity expansion model and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. We use ReEDS to explore a multitude of future scenarios looking at key drivers for OSW deployment, including variations on the cost of OSW, electricity demand growth, and the availability of competing technologies to examine the factors that may play a role in OSW growth. Assuming coastal state policies such as renewable portfolio and clean energy standards remain in place, we find that OSW can play a role in meeting electricity demand and provide energy during stressful grid conditions and find that deployment from the least‐cost investment model ranges from 7.6 to 38 GW by 2045.

17 WIND ENERGY↗