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NASA NTRS1991

Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. II - Southern Hemisphere

A systematic examination of oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere is completed by studying 12 years of 500 mb geopotential heights in the Southern Hemisphere. The data were band-pass filtered to focus on intraseasonal (IS) phenomena, and spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were obtained. The leading principal components were subjected to singular spectrum analysis in order to identify nonlinear IS oscillations with high statistical confidence. In the Southern Hemisphere, the dominant mode has a period of 23 days, with spatial patterns carried by the second and third winter EOF of the IS band. It has a zonal wavenumber-four structure. The 40-day mode is second, and is dominated by wavenumbers three and four, while a 16-day mode is too weak to separate its spatial behavior from the previous two. The IS dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere is more complex and dominated by shorter wavenumbers than the Northern Hemisphere. No statistically significant correlations between the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics or the Northern Hemisphere are apparent in the IS band.

Ghil, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1990

A criterion for establishing life limits

The development of a rigorous statistical method that would utilize hardware-demonstrated reliability to evaluate hardware capability and provide ground rules for safe flight margin is discussed. A statistical-based method using the Weibull/Weibayes cumulative distribution function is described. Its advantages and inadequacies are pointed out. Another, more advanced procedure, Single Flight Reliability (SFR), determines a life limit which ensures that the reliability of any single flight is never less than a stipulated value at a stipulated confidence level. Application of the SFR method is illustrated.

Skopp, G. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis

Summarized results and recommendations are presented for a prototype performance-trending study sponsored by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) with NASA Headquarters support. The acquirement of this recognition capability is statistically addressed through the expansion of an arbitrary probability density function (PDF) of the Gram-Charlier series type. This PDF is utilized to assess the relative deviation of any future measurement confidence bounds for launch commit criteria. As a result, the probabilistic assessment of time-varying measurement fluctuation stability can be identified in terms of these historical measurement profiles.

Hart, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Numerical computation of transition to turbulence

Current applications of numerical simulations, including studies of mildly nonlinear and strongly nonlinear effects, and incipient turbulence are reviewed, and it is observed that one mildly nonlinear application for which direct simulations need to take a leading part is in establishing confidence in the dominant instability of a flow, while direct simulations are the primary tool when nonlinear effects are stronger than can be handled by existing asymptotic methods. The characteristics of existing algorithms for transition simulations are discussed, along with algorithmic improvements which would extend the range of problems amenable to numerical simulations. Current and future issues and problems are outlined.

Zang, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Temperature trends in the lower mesosphere

The largest atmospheric temperature changes due to the increase of greenhouse gases are expected in the 40 to 60 km altitude region, where enhanced infrared cooling decreases the temperature. Ten-year (1980-1990) temperature trends at 55 km and 0.4 mb, derived using data from the ground-based lidar at Haute Provence, (France), and the SSU-instrument channel 47X on several satellites, are presented. These data show temperature decreases that are as large and in some cases exceed predictions based on current models. At 44 deg N, the ground-based lidar and satellite techniques give a negative trend of -0.10 + or - 0.04 percent per year and -0.14 + or - 0.02 percent per year, respectively. Agreement between these two data sets based on different measurement techniques gives confidence in the detected trends at this latitude. Further analysis of the SSU 47X satellite data between 45 deg S and 45 deg N indicates a maximum decline of 0.16 percent per year near 30 deg N. A minimum trend decrease of 0.07 percent per year is detected between 20 and 30 deg S. Based on NOAA satellite radiance observations, these long-term temperature changes are larger than changes at any of the other stratospheric levels below 55 km monitored during this period.

Aikin, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A measurement of the large-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropy at 1.8 millimeter wavelength

This measurement of the large-scale cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) anisotropy places the most stringent constraints to date on fluctuations in the CMBR on angular scales greater than about 4 deg. Using a four-channel bolometric radiometer operating at 1.8, 1.1, 0.63, and 0.44 mm, the diffuse sky brightness over half of the northern hemisphere has been mapped with an angular resolution of 3.8 deg. Analysis of the sky map at the longest wavelength for Galactic latitudes of 15 deg or more yields a 95-percent confidence level upper limit on fluctuations of the CMBR at Delta T/T of 1.6 x 10 to the -5th with a statistical power of 92 percent for Gaussian fluctuations at a correlation angle of 13 deg. Between 3 deg and 22 deg, the upper limit of fluctuations is 4.0 x 10 to the -5th . An anisotropy is detected in the map, but it cannot yet be attributed to primordial sources. The ultimate sensitivity for this experiment is 7 x 10 to the -6th over this angular range for Gaussian fluctuations.

Meyer, Stephan S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

COBE

Preliminary results are presented from COBE's three observational instruments. These are the FIRAS spectrum experiment, which surveyed over 98 percent of the sky, the IR background experiment, DIRBE which surveyed all of the sky, and the DMR anisotropy experiment. It is found that the cosmic microwave background is very close to a blackbody, with a temperature of 2.735 + or - 0.06 K. The only reliably detected background anisotropy is the 3.3 + or - 0.2 mK-amplitude dipole. The rms quadrupole anisotropy is less than 0.00003 with 95-percent confidence. DIRBE results indicate that the IRAS 60-100 micron diffuse-flux calibrations suffer from gain and offset errors.

Wright, Edward L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Limits on cold dark matter cosmologies from new anisotropy bounds on the cosmic microwave background

A self-consistent method is presented for comparing theoretical predictions of and observational upper limits on CMB anisotropy. New bounds on CDM cosmologies set by the UCSB South Pole experiment on the 1 deg angular scale are presented. An upper limit of 4.0 x 10 to the -5th is placed on the rms differential temperature anisotropy to a 95 percent confidence level and a power of the test beta = 55 percent. A lower limit of about 0.6/b is placed on the density parameter of cold dark matter universes with greater than about 3 percent baryon abundance and a Hubble constant of 50 km/s/Mpc, where b is the bias factor, equal to unity only if light traces mass.

Vittorio, Nicola↗

NASA NTRS1990

Satellite remote sensing of primary production in the Sahel using NOAA AVHRR 1981-1988

Field measurements of primary production in semiarid grasslands in three Sahelian countries over a period of 8 years are analyzed in conjunction with multitemporal sums of vegetation indices derived from the NOAA spacecraft's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The results demonstrate that there is a strong linear relationship between the satellite observations of vegetation indices and the primary production in the range 0-3,000 kg/ha. The confidence intervals of estimation of production were in the range + or - 61-161 kg/ha.

Prince, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Modeling a constant power load for nickel-hydrogen battery testing using SPICE

The effort to design and model a constant power load for the HST (Hubble Space Telescope) nickel-hydrogen battery tests is described. The constant power load was designed for three different simulations on the batteries: life cycling, reconditioning, and capacity testing. A dc-dc boost converter was designed to act as this constant power load. A boost converter design was chosen because of the low test battery voltage (4 to 6 VDC) generated and the relatively high power requirement of 60 to 70 W. The SPICE model was shown to consistently predict variations in the actual circuit as various designs were attempted. It is concluded that the confidence established in the SPICE model of the constant power load ensures its extensive utilization in future efforts to improve performance in the actual load circuit.

Bearden, Douglas B.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth in the Sahel region in relation to vegetation remote sensing

In order to monitor the aerosol characteristics needed for atmospheric correction of remotely sensed data, a network of sun photometers was established in the Sahel region of Senegal, Mali, and Niger. Data analysis suggests that there is a high spatial variability of the aerosol optical thickness tau(a) in the western Sahel region. At a 67 percent confidence level the instantaneous values of tau(a) can be extrapolated approximately 270-400 km with an error tolerance of 50 percent. Spatial variability in the dry season is found to be of a similar magnitude. The ranges of variations in the NDVI in the Sahel region are shown to be approximately 0.02 and 0.01, respectively, due to commonly observed fluctuations in the aerosol optical thickness and aerosol size distribution.

Holben, B. N.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission (ART) program status

Reported herein is work done on the Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission by McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Company under Army/NASA contract. The novel concept pursued includes the use of face gears for power transmission and a torque splitting arrangement. The design reduces the size and weight of the corner-turning hardware and the next reduction stage. New methods of analyzing face gears have increased confidence in their usefulness. Test gears have been designed and manufactured for power transmission testing on the NASA-Lewis spiral bevel test rig. Transmission design effort has included finite element modeling of the split torque paths to assure equal deflection under load. A finite element model of the Apache main transmission has been completed to substantiate noise prediction methods. A positive engagement overrunning clutch design is described. Test spur gears have been made by near-net-shape forging from five different materials. Three housing materials have been procured for evaluation testing.

Bossler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1991

An engineering assessment of gas/surface interactions in free-molecular aerodynamics

Data available on the gas/surface interaction (GSI) phenomenon, particularly in the rarefied to near-free-molecular flow regime are collected, categorized, and analyzed with a purpose of developing a GSI model that could be used as a guide to spacecraft designers. The study shows that there are not enough useful data for building a high-confidence GSI model. However, sufficient results are obtained to suggest that continued reliance on the diffuse GSI model is inappropriate, particularly in the near-free-molecular regime.

Knox, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Titan improvement study - Hydrogen core stages

The performance benefits and comparative cost-effectiveness of Titan/Centaur launcher improvement options involving a new LH2/LOX second stage and/or a new LH2/LOX first stage are presented. This incremental improvement approach involves higher confidence due to high components-commonality with well-tested systems. The proposed second stage's capabilities are such as to allow it to serve as an OTV. This improvement to Titan constitutes one of several justifications for a new 500-1000 kN thrust liquid-fuel engine.

Martin, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Aerocapture for manned Mars missions - Status and challenges

The current status for manned Mars missions and the associated challenges are summarized. Mission benefits are considered to increase with increasing Mars entry velocity. However, significant benefits accrue at moderate entry velocities between 7 and 8 km/sec, which is the realistically achievable range in view of g-limits and heating constraints. Blunt, low mass/drag coefficient (reference area) vehicles with L/Ds from 0.3 to 0.5 are found to be the preferred configurations, taking into account their adequate control authority and good payload packaging characteristics. The overall design characteristics of Mars aerocapture vehicles can be established with good confidence, using flight and ground test data and the state-of-the-art flow field analysis techniques. The principal challenges are identified as follows: to refine the knowledge of the Martian atmosphere in order to reduce design conservatism, to extend present stagnation region heating analyses to the entire vehicle forebody, and to develop reflective low-wall-catalycity TPS systems for enabling reusable vehicles.

Walberg, Gerald D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Second-epoch VLA observations of compact radio sources in NGC 253

Results are presented of second-epoch 6-cm VLA observations of the starburst galaxy NGC 253 in early 1989, approximately 18 months after the first observations identified more than 30 compact radio sources in the galaxy. The galaxy was also mapped at 3.6 cm. No new radio sources were found at 6 cm after the 18-month interval. Assuming that at least two-thirds of new type II supernovae would have been detectable radio emitters stronger than 3 mJy, the 95-percent confidence upper limit to the SN rate is 3.0/yr. None of the 13 sources with flux densities above 1 mJy showed significant decreases in strength over 18 months; the strongest source showed an apparent increase of 6.5 percent in flux density, which differs from that of Kronberg and Sramek (1985) for M82. The 3.6 map identified a number of new sources because of the reduction of confusion. The available spectral data show that a few of the resolved sources may be H II regions.

Ulvestad, James S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The measurement, modelling and prediction of traction forces in a rocket propellant

Traction tests were performed on RPI, a common kerosene-based rocket propellant. Traction data on this fluid are required for purposes of turbopump bearing design, using such codes as SHABERTH. To obtain the traction data, an existing twin disk machine was used, operating under the side slip mode and using elliptical contacts. The resulting traction curves were reduced to fundamental fluid property parameters using the Johnson and Tevaarwerk traction model. Theoretical traction predictions were performed by back substitution of the fundamental properties into the traction model. Comparison of the predicted with the measured curves gives a high degree of confidence in the correctness of the traction model.

Tevaarwerk, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An observation of annihilation radiation from the Galactic center region

Results are reported from observations of the 511 MeV annihilation gamma-ray line from the Galactic center, made on May 22, 1989 with a high-resolution gamma-ray spectrometer on board a balloon launched from Alice Springs (Australia). The observations were made at about 4 gm/sq cm atmospheric depth for 6 hrs in a series of target and background pointings lasting 20 min each. The results obtained from multiparameter Gaussian fits to the data were as follows: 511 keV flux = 0.00089 + or - 0.00027 ph/sq cm per sec-rad, line width of about 1.1 keV, and less than 3.2 keV FWHM at 95 percent confidence.

Matteson, J.↗