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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

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NASA NTRS2007

Usability Study of Two Collocated Prototype System Displays

Currently, most of the displays in control rooms can be categorized as status screens, alerts/procedures screens (or paper), or control screens (where the state of a component is changed by the operator). The primary focus of this line of research is to determine which pieces of information (status, alerts/procedures, and control) should be collocated. Two collocated displays were tested for ease of understanding in an automated desktop survey. This usability study was conducted as a prelude to a larger human-in-the-loop experiment in order to verify that the 2 new collocated displays were easy to learn and usable. The results indicate that while the DC display was preferred and yielded better performance than the MDO display, both collocated displays can be easily learned and used.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioLEAD: BioLogical Exploration via Autonomous Detection – Using Dielectric Spectroscopy to Monitor Biological Changes in Response to Deep Space Radiation

Leveraging the bio-fluidic hardware developed for BioSentinel, we propose a new payload for autonomous missions: BioLEAD – BioLogical Exploration via Autonomous Detection. With NASA's renewed focus to continue human exploration of the Moon (Artemis Program), the BioLEAD payload aims to investigate the effects of the lunar environment on biology, whether onboard a lunar lander, the Lunar Gateway, or as a free-flying CubeSat orbiting the Moon. In place of an optical detection system, BioLEAD will employ a miniaturized, non-invasive dielectric spectroscopy sensor to enable real-time monitoring of biological activity. The sensor operates by relating capacitance measurements to the dielectric properties of the cell, such as cell morphology, doubling time, and cell cycle stage. The implementation of this new sensor technology will address limitations of the optical measurement system used on BioSentinel. It will also advance the use of autonomous bioanalytical microsystems and reveal new information regarding biological responses to the Moon’s radiation environment. Most importantly, BioLEAD’s technology will be adaptable for a wide array of future missions.

Biosensor↗

NASA NTRS1982

Does man always close the loop in trying to pilot a large ship?

Control of a slowly responding complex dynamic system such as a large supertanker poses special problems for the human. Experienced ship's crew members maneuvered a simulated ship in real time. The simulation was performed using a graphics display run by a DPD 11/40 minicomputer. The maneuvers consisted of piloting a large ship along a narrow waterway. Preliminary results suggest that the human operates as a feedforward controller utilizing the preview information for 'gross changes' in heading, and as a feedback controller for correcting small deviations. The instruments displayed on the deck do not seem to be helpful in all situations. In fact, evidence seems to indicate that some of the displays might even interfere with the pilot's attempt to form a good internal model.

Arnott, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space exploration and colonization - Towards a space faring society

Development trends of space exploration and colonization since 1957 are reviewed, and a five-phase evolutionary program planned for the long-term future is described. The International Geosphere-Biosphere program which is intended to provide the database on enviromental changes of the earth as a global system is considered. Evolution encompasses the anticipated advantages of such NASA observation projects as the Hubble Space Telescope, the Gamma Ray Observatory, the Advanced X-Ray Astrophysics Facility, and the Cosmic Background Explorer. Attention is given to requirements for space colonization, including development of artificial gravity and countermeasures to mitigate zero gravity problems; robotics and systems aimed to minimize human exposure to the space environment; the use of nuclear propulsion; and international collaboration on lunar-Mars projects. It is recommended that nuclear energy sources be developed for both propulsion and as extraterrestrial power plants.

Hammond, Walter E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Applications of Fractal Analytical Techniques in the Estimation of Operational Scale

The observational scale and the resolution of remotely sensed imagery are essential considerations in the interpretation process. Many atmospheric, hydrologic, and other natural and human-influenced spatial phenomena are inherently scale dependent and are governed by different physical processes at different spatial domains. This spatial and operational heterogeneity constrains the ability to compare interpretations of phenomena and processes observed in higher spatial resolution imagery to similar interpretations obtained from lower resolution imagery. This is a particularly acute problem, since longterm global change investigations will require high spatial resolution Earth Observing System (EOS), Landsat 7, or commercial satellite data to be combined with lower resolution imagery from older sensors such as Landsat TM and MSS. Fractal analysis is a useful technique for identifying the effects of scale changes on remotely sensed imagery. The fractal dimension of an image is a non-integer value between two and three which indicates the degree of complexity in the texture and shapes depicted in the image. A true fractal surface exhibits self-similarity, a property of curves or surfaces where each part is indistinguishable from the whole, or where the form of the curve or surface is invariant with respect to scale. Theoretically, if the digital numbers of a remotely sensed image resemble an ideal fractal surface, then due to the self-similarity property, the fractal dimension of the image will not vary with scale and resolution, and the slope of the fractal dimension-resolution relationship would be zero. Most geographical phenomena, however, are not self-similar at all scales, but they can be modeled by a stochastic fractal in which the scaling properties of the image exhibit patterns that can be described by statistics such as area-perimeter ratios and autocovariances. Stochastic fractal sets relax the self-similarity assumption and measure many scales and resolutions to represent the varying form of a phenomenon as the pixel size is increased in a convolution process. We have observed that for images of homogeneous land covers, the fractal dimension varies linearly with changes in resolution or pixel size over the range of past, current, and planned space-borne sensors. This relationship differs significantly in images of agricultural, urban, and forest land covers, with urban areas retaining the same level of complexity, forested areas growing smoother, and agricultural areas growing more complex as small pixels are aggregated into larger, mixed pixels. Images of scenes having a mixture of land covers have fractal dimensions that exhibit a non-linear, complex relationship to pixel size. Measuring the fractal dimension of a difference image derived from two images of the same area obtained on different dates showed that the fractal dimension increased steadily, then exhibited a sharp decrease at increasing levels of pixel aggregation. This breakpoint of the fractal dimension/resolution plot is related to the spatial domain or operational scale of the phenomenon exhibiting the predominant visible difference between the two images (in this case, mountain snow cover). The degree to which an image departs from a theoretical ideal fractal surface provides clues as to how much information is altered or lost in the processes of rescaling and rectification. The measured fractal dimension of complex, composite land covers such as urban areas also provides a useful textural index that can assist image classification of complex scenes.

Emerson, Charles W.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Electrorheological Fluid Based Force Feedback Device

Parallel to the efforts to develop fully autonomous robots, it is increasingly being realized that there are applications where it is essential to have a fully controlled robot and "feel" its operating conditions, i.e. telepresence. This trend is a result of the increasing efforts to address tasks where humans can perform significantly better but, due to associated hazards, distance, physical limitations and other causes, only robots can be employed to perform these tasks. Such robots need to be assisted by a human that remotely controls the operation. To address the goal of operating robots as human surrogates, the authors launched a study of mechanisms that provide mechanical feedback. For this purpose, electrorheological fluids (ERF) are being investigated for the potential application as miniature haptic devices. This family of electroactive fluids has the property of changing the viscosity during electrical stimulation. Consequently, ERF can be used to produce force feedback haptic devices for tele-operated control of medical and space robotic systems. Forces applied at the robot end-effector due to a compliant environment are reflected to the user using an ERF device where a change in the system viscosity will occur proportionally to the transmitted force. Analytical model and control algorithms are being developed taking into account the non-linearities of these type of devices. This paper will describe the concept and the developed mechanism of ERF based force feedback. The test process and the physical properties of this device will be described and the results of preliminary tests will be presented.

Pfeiffer, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2012

Catalyst Substrates Remove Contaminants, Produce Fuel

A spacecraft is the ultimate tight building. We don t want any leaks, and there is very little fresh air coming in, says Jay Perry, an aerospace engineer at Marshall Space Flight Center. As a result, there is a huge potential for a buildup of contaminants from a host of sources. Inside a spacecraft, contaminants can be introduced from the materials that make spacecraft components, electronics boxes, or activities by the crew such as food preparation or cleaning. Humans also generate contaminants by breathing and through the body s natural metabolic processes. As part of the sophisticated Environmental Control and Life Support System on the International Space Station (ISS), a trace contaminant control system removes carbon dioxide and other impurities from the cabin atmosphere. To maintain healthy levels, the system uses adsorbent media to filter chemical contaminant molecules and a high-temperature catalytic oxidizer to change the chemical structure of the contaminants to something more benign, usually carbon dioxide and water. In the 1990s, while researching air quality control technology for extended spaceflight travel, Perry and others at Marshall were looking for a regenerable process for the continuous removal of carbon dioxide and trace chemical contaminants on long-duration manned space flights. At the time, the existing technology used on U.S. spacecraft could only be used once, which meant that a spacecraft had to carry additional spare parts for use in case the first one was depleted, or the spacecraft would have to return to Earth to exchange the components.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2014

Controller Inhibition of Automated Conflict Resolutions in a Maximum NextGen Condition

With the continued projection of increases in air traffic density, operations in the National Airspace System are expected to exceed human capabilities in the near future. In order to address the bottleneck of human workload capacity, highly automated safety-critical systems are under development to support air traffic controllers. A human-in-the-loop experiment examined controllers transition through four NextGen automation stages: Current-Day, Minimum, Moderate, and Maximum. Maximum NextGen simulated a fully automated environment where the automation was responsible for detecting and resolving conflicts within simulation parameters in high-density airspace. By allocating these tasks to the automation, the controllers task changed. The human moved to primarily a supervisory position- typically only regaining control over separation assurance tasks during conflict situations deferred by the automation. While tasks were allocated a-priori between the controller and automated agent, controllers maintained authority to inhibit the automation from interacting with particular aircraft. Preliminary work is complete, where significant differences were found in inhibition frequency between simulation participants. However, the contexts in which the controllers inhibited the automation, and their reasons for doing so, remain unclear. This analysis attempts to identity factors contributing to human controllers inhibition of the automation in the Maximum NextGen condition.

adaptable automation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Transmitter Electromagnetic Compatibility

The Launch Services Program at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is the primary gate for acquiring commercial vehicles to provide a cost effective ride to space for NASA spacecraft. With the lunar Gateway, more human tended elements are planned for launch. One challenge facing the space industry is the proliferation of communication and science transmitters at frequencies beyond the qualification of space avionics and instruments. Studies have ensued to examine the intricacies of performing radiated susceptibility testing and analysis above 18 GHz. Changes in the launch vehicle communications interface to the range have also lead to new launch vehicle antenna systems and more reliance on GPS and telemetry systems. Finally, research initiated at KSC in the area of predicted electric field distributions in launch vehicle payload fairings have spawned Small Business Technology Transfer initiatives for industry to investigate statistical algorithm and computational improvements in large payload fairing modeling of transmitters at frequencies in the GHz range. These topics, along with electromagnetic compatibility testing for launch vehicles will be discussed.

Electromagnetic Testing Cavity Statistics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Current Status of Clinical Trials for Cervical and Uterine Cancer Using Immunotherapy Combined With Radiation

Novel therapies combined with radiation continue to be of significant interest in the developmental treatment paradigm of gynecologic cancers. Clinical implementation of immunotherapy in oncology has rapidly changed the treatment landscape, options, paradigm, and outcomes through clinical trials. Immunotherapy has emerged as a therapeutic pillar in the treatment of solid tumors with demonstrable synergistic activity when combined with radiation therapy and chemoradiotherapy by an alteration or enhancement of the immune system. In solid tumors, radiation therapy induces migration of dendritic cells, T cell activation, and proliferation, and increases in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes. These immunomodulatory effects in conjunction with immune checkpoint blockade are currently under active investigation in the adjuvant, definitive, and metastatic settings. Results from early phase trials demonstrate promising efficacy and overall tolerable toxicity profiles of combined modality treatment. There is significant interest in optimizing the treatment for patients with locally advanced cervical cancer beyond the standard of care—chemoradiation—which has been in place for the last 30 years. The majority of cervical cancer emerges after persistent infection with a high-risk subtype of the human papillomavirus, where viral oncoproteins lead to cellular changes and immortalization. As a result, immune tolerance can develop, resulting in cancer. Knowledge of the mechanism of human papillomavirus–related oncogenesis suggests that immune therapy or checkpoint blockade can reinvigorate an antitumor immune response. Current clinical trials are exploring the therapeutic potential of these approaches. Uterine cancers have been grouped into 4 molecular subclasses by their driver mutations, mutational burden, and copy-number alterations. Of these subgroups, the polymerase epsilon–mutated and microsatellite-unstable may represent up to 40% of endometrial cancers, and they have been shown to be immunogenic. Because of the inherent immunogenicity of these MSI-high tumors, combined immune modulation strategies, including chemotherapy, radiation, and immunotherapy and immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, are being explored to improve treatment outcomes. In this review, we explore current immunomodulatory and multimodality therapeutic approaches in the treatment of cervical and uterine cancer through ongoing clinical trials investigating the combination of immunotherapy and radiation therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Use of Semi-Autonomous Tools for ISS Commanding and Monitoring

As the International Space Station (ISS) has moved into a utilization phase, operations have shifted to become more ground-based with fewer mission control personnel monitoring and commanding multiple ISS systems. This shift to fewer people monitoring more systems has prompted use of semi-autonomous console tools in the ISS Mission Control Center (MCC) to help flight controllers command and monitor the ISS. These console tools perform routine operational procedures while keeping the human operator "in the loop" to monitor and intervene when off-nominal events arise. Two such tools, the Pre-positioned Load (PPL) Loader and Automatic Operators Recorder Manager (AutoORM), are used by the ISS Communications RF Onboard Networks Utilization Specialist (CRONUS) flight control position. CRONUS is responsible for simultaneously commanding and monitoring the ISS Command & Data Handling (C&DH) and Communications and Tracking (C&T) systems. PPL Loader is used to uplink small pieces of frequently changed software data tables, called PPLs, to ISS computers to support different ISS operations. In order to uplink a PPL, a data load command must be built that contains multiple user-input fields. Next, a multiple step commanding and verification procedure must be performed to enable an onboard computer for software uplink, uplink the PPL, verify the PPL has incorporated correctly, and disable the computer for software uplink. PPL Loader provides different levels of automation in both building and uplinking these commands. In its manual mode, PPL Loader automatically builds the PPL data load commands but allows the flight controller to verify and save the commands for future uplink. In its auto mode, PPL Loader automatically builds the PPL data load commands for flight controller verification, but automatically performs the PPL uplink procedure by sending commands and performing verification checks while notifying CRONUS of procedure step completion. If an off-nominal condition occurs during procedure execution, PPL Loader notifies CRONUS through popup messages, allowing CRONUS to examine the situation and choose an option of how PPL loader should proceed with the procedure. The use of PPL Loader to perform frequent, routine PPL uplinks offloads CRONUS to better monitor two ISS systems. It also reduces procedure performance time and decreases risk of command errors. AutoORM identifies ISS communication outage periods and builds commands to lock, playback, and unlock ISS Operations Recorder files. Operation Recorder files are circular buffer files of continually recorded ISS telemetry data. Sections of these files can be locked from further writing, be played back to capture telemetry data that occurred during an ISS loss of signal (LOS) period, and then be unlocked for future recording use. Downlinked Operation Recorder files are used by mission support teams for data analysis, especially if failures occur during LOS. The commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files are encompassed in three different operational procedures and contain multiple user-input fields. AutoORM provides different levels of automation for building and uplinking the commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files. In its automatic mode, AutoORM automatically detects ISS LOS periods, then generates and uplinks the commands to lock, playback, and unlock Operations Recorder files when MCC regains signal with ISS. AutoORM also features semi-autonomous and manual modes which integrate CRONUS more into the command verification and uplink process. AutoORMs ability to automatically detect ISS LOS periods and build the necessary commands to preserve, playback, and release recorded telemetry data greatly offloads CRONUS to perform more high-level cognitive tasks, such as mission planning and anomaly troubleshooting. Additionally, since Operations Recorder commands contain numerical time input fields which are tedious for a human to manually build, AutoORM's ability to automatically build commands reduces operational command errors. PPL Loader and AutoORM demonstrate principles of semi-autonomous operational tools that will benefit future space mission operations. Both tools employ different levels of automation to perform simple and routine procedures, thereby offloading human operators to perform higher-level cognitive tasks. Because both tools provide procedure execution status and highlight off-nominal indications, the flight controller is able to intervene during procedure execution if needed. Semi-autonomous tools and systems that can perform routine procedures, yet keep human operators informed of execution, will be essential in future long-duration missions where the onboard crew will be solely responsible for spacecraft monitoring and control.

Brzezinski, Amy S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Agent Based Intelligence in a Tetrahedral Rover

A tetrahedron is a 4-node 6-strut pyramid structure which is being used by the NASA - Goddard Space Flight Center as the basic building block for a new approach to robotic motion. The struts are extendable; it is by the sequence of activities: strut-extension, changing the center of gravity and falling that the tetrahedron "moves". Currently, strut-extension is handled by human remote control. There is an effort underway to make the movement of the tetrahedron autonomous, driven by an attempt to achieve a goal. The approach being taken is to associate an intelligent agent with each node. Thus, the autonomous tetrahedron is realized as a constrained multi-agent system, where the constraints arise from the fact that between any two agents there is an extendible strut. The hypothesis of this work is that, by proper composition of such automated tetrahedra, robotic structures of various levels of complexity can be developed which will support more complex dynamic motions. This is the basis of the new approach to robotic motion which is under investigation. A Java-based simulator for the single tetrahedron, realized as a constrained multi-agent system, has been developed and evaluated. This paper reports on this project and presents a discussion of the structure and dynamics of the simulator.

Phelps, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2014

Radiation Quality Effects on Transcriptome Profiles in 3-D Cultures After Charged Particle Irradiation

In this work, we evaluated the differential effects of low- and high-LET radiation on 3-D organotypic cultures in order to investigate radiation quality impacts on gene expression and cellular responses. Current risk models for assessment of space radiation-induced cancer have large uncertainties because the models for adverse health effects following radiation exposure are founded on epidemiological analyses of human populations exposed to low-LET radiation. Reducing these uncertainties requires new knowledge on the fundamental differences in biological responses (the so-called radiation quality effects) triggered by heavy ion particle radiation versus low-LET radiation associated with Earth-based exposures. In order to better quantify these radiation quality effects in biological systems, we are utilizing novel 3-D organotypic human tissue models for space radiation research. These models hold promise for risk assessment as they provide a format for study of human cells within a realistic tissue framework, thereby bridging the gap between 2-D monolayer culture and animal models for risk extrapolation to humans. To identify biological pathway signatures unique to heavy ion particle exposure, functional gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used with whole transcriptome profiling. GSEA has been used extensively as a method to garner biological information in a variety of model systems but has not been commonly used to analyze radiation effects. It is a powerful approach for assessing the functional significance of radiation quality-dependent changes from datasets where the changes are subtle but broad, and where single gene based analysis using rankings of fold-change may not reveal important biological information.

Patel, Zarana S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Radiation Quality Effects on Transcriptome Profiles in 3-d Cultures After Particle Irradiation

In this work, we evaluate the differential effects of low- and high-LET radiation on 3-D organotypic cultures in order to investigate radiation quality impacts on gene expression and cellular responses. Reducing uncertainties in current risk models requires new knowledge on the fundamental differences in biological responses (the so-called radiation quality effects) triggered by heavy ion particle radiation versus low-LET radiation associated with Earth-based exposures. We are utilizing novel 3-D organotypic human tissue models that provide a format for study of human cells within a realistic tissue framework, thereby bridging the gap between 2-D monolayer culture and animal models for risk extrapolation to humans. To identify biological pathway signatures unique to heavy ion particle exposure, functional gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used with whole transcriptome profiling. GSEA has been used extensively as a method to garner biological information in a variety of model systems but has not been commonly used to analyze radiation effects. It is a powerful approach for assessing the functional significance of radiation quality-dependent changes from datasets where the changes are subtle but broad, and where single gene based analysis using rankings of fold-change may not reveal important biological information. We identified 45 statistically significant gene sets at 0.05 q-value cutoff, including 14 gene sets common to gamma and titanium irradiation, 19 gene sets specific to gamma irradiation, and 12 titanium-specific gene sets. Common gene sets largely align with DNA damage, cell cycle, early immune response, and inflammatory cytokine pathway activation. The top gene set enriched for the gamma- and titanium-irradiated samples involved KRAS pathway activation and genes activated in TNF-treated cells, respectively. Another difference noted for the high-LET samples was an apparent enrichment in gene sets involved in cycle cycle/mitotic control. It is plausible that the enrichment in these particular pathways results from the complex DNA damage resulting from high-LET exposure where repair processes are not completed during the same time scale as the less complex damage resulting from low-LET radiation.

Patel, Z. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrating Safety and Mission Assurance into Systems Engineering Modeling Practices

During the early development of products, flight, or experimental hardware, emphasis is often given to the identification of technical requirements, utilizing such tools as use case and activity diagrams. Designers and project teams focus on understanding physical and performance demands and challenges. It is typically only later, during the evaluation of preliminary designs that a first pass, if performed, is made to determine the process, safety, and mission quality assurance requirements. Evaluation early in the life cycle, though, can yield requirements that force a fundamental change in design. This paper discusses an alternate paradigm for using the concepts of use case or activity diagrams to identify safety hazard and mission quality assurance risks and concerns using the same systems engineering modeling tools being used to identify technical requirements. It contains two examples of how this process might be used in the development of a space flight experiment, and the design of a Human Powered Pizza Delivery Vehicle, along with the potential benefits to decrease development time, and provide stronger budget estimates.

Requirements↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of the Translational Radiation Research and Countermeasures (TRRaC) Project in Space Radiation

The Translational Radiation Research and Countermeasures (TRRaC) Project was initiated by the Space Radiation (SR) Element within NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) to support the SR mission to understand and characterize the space radiation environment, understand and quantify radiation-associated risks, and mitigate the impacts of radiation-induced adverse health outcomes to enable human space exploration. TRRaC’s mission is to translate radiation research results from experimental studies and epidemiological data to humans and astronauts using bioinformatics and computational modeling. TRRaC will leverage existing datasets such as those available from NASA’s GeneLab repository and human medical radiation exposure registries, along with relevant data generated from ground-based research at molecular, cellular, tissue, and system levels, to: (1) refine the radiation dose rate effectiveness factor, (2) characterize radiation quality effects to improve estimates of the risk of exposure-induced death (REID) from space-relevant radiation exposures, and (3) identify pathways and biomarkers for cancer, cardiovascular disease, and central nervous system changes that are impacted by space radiation exposure.

Parastou Eslami↗

DOE OSTI2020

Can We Fix It Automatically? Development of Fault Auto-Correction Algorithms for HVAC and Lighting Systems

A fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) tool is a type of energy management and information system designed to continuously identify the presence of faults and efficiency improvement opportunities through a one-way interface to the building automation system and application of automated analytics. Building owners and operators at the leading edge of technology adoption are using FDD tools to enable average whole-building portfolio savings of 8 percent. Although FDD tools can inform building operators of operational faults, currently a manual action is always required to correct faults and generate the associated energy savings. A subset of faults, however, such as biased sensors and manual override, can be addressed automatically, removing the need for operations and maintenance staff intervention. Automating this fault “correction” can significantly increase the savings generated by FDD tools and reduce the reliance on human intervention. Doing so is expected to advance the usability, as well as the technical and economic performance, of FDD technologies. In this paper, we present the development of 10 innovative fault auto-correction algorithms for HVAC and lighting systems. When the auto-correction routine is triggered, it will overwrite the control setpoints or other variables (via BACnet or other protocol) to implement the intended changes. These algorithms are able to automatically correct the faults or improve the operation associated with an incorrectly programmed schedule, override manual control, sensor bias, control hunting, rogue zone, and less aggressive setpoints/setpoints setback. The paper will also discuss the implementation of the auto-correction algorithms in FDD software products.

Lin, Guanjing↗

NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗