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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1950

The application of the statistical theory of extreme values to gust-load problems

An analysis is presented which indicates that the statistical theory of extreme values is applicable to the problems of predicting the frequency of encountering the larger gust loads and gust velocities for both specific test conditions as well as commercial transport operations. The extreme-value theory provides an analytic form for the distributions of maximum values of gust load and velocity. Methods of fitting the distribution are given along with a method of estimating the reliability of the predictions. The theory of extreme values is applied to available load data from commercial transport operations. The results indicate that the estimates of the frequency of encountering the larger loads are more consistent with the data and more reliable than those obtained in previous analyses. (author)

Press, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2015

Computational Process Modeling for Additive Manufacturing (OSU)

Powder-Bed Additive Manufacturing (AM) through Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS) or Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is being used by NASA and the Aerospace industry to "print" parts that traditionally are very complex, high cost, or long schedule lead items. The process spreads a thin layer of metal powder over a build platform, then melts the powder in a series of welds in a desired shape. The next layer of powder is applied, and the process is repeated until layer-by-layer, a very complex part can be built. This reduces cost and schedule by eliminating very complex tooling and processes traditionally used in aerospace component manufacturing. To use the process to print end-use items, NASA seeks to understand SLM material well enough to develop a method of qualifying parts for space flight operation. Traditionally, a new material process takes many years and high investment to generate statistical databases and experiential knowledge, but computational modeling can truncate the schedule and cost -many experiments can be run quickly in a model, which would take years and a high material cost to run empirically. This project seeks to optimize material build parameters with reduced time and cost through modeling.

Bagg, Stacey↗
NASA NTRS2017

Radiation, Smoke and Clouds Observed in the Southeastern Atlantic With the Research Scanning Polarimeter During ORACLES

The ObseRvations of Aerosols above Clouds and their interactions (ORACLES) project is making a series of field deployments to the southeastern Atlantic with NASA ER-2 and P3 aircraft to acquire both detailed remote sensing observations and in situ measurements of the aerosols and clouds in that region. This area is home to one of the largest low-level cloud decks on Earth that is seasonally affected by vast plumes of smoke from biomass burning, which in effect provides a natural experiment testing the radiative and microphysical interactions between the smoke and the clouds. The downward solar radiation at the surface, or cloud top, is always reduced by the presence of smoke. However, whether the amount of sunlight reflected back out to space is increased, or decreased by the presence of smoke is sensitively dependent on the brightness of the clouds and the fraction of light that the smoke absorbs each time light hits a smoke particle. In this study we use data from the Research Scanning Polarimeter, an along track scanning instrument, that provides measurements of the Stokes parameters I, Q and U at 410, 470, 555, 670, 865, 960, 1590, 1880 and 2260 nm at 150 viewing angles over a range of +/- 60° from nadir for each contiguous sub-aircraft pixel (~ 300 m in size). A retrieval algorithm is applied to the data acquired with a table look up technique, similar to that of the operational POLDER algorithm, to provide a first guess of the complex refractive index, optical depth and size distribution of the smoke particles together with cloud droplet size and optical depth. A subsequent iterative fitting procedure, where the fact that the doubling/adding method allows the construction of the Green's function for the radiative transfer equation, is used to obtain an efficient and statistically optimal estimate of the aerosol and cloud retrieval parameters. These retrieval parameters are evaluated against in situ observations, when available, and the optical depth and intensive lidar variables that are measured by the High Spectral Resolution Lidar 2. Finally, the aerosol and cloud retrievals are used to evaluate the variations in top of the atmosphere, surface/cloud top shortwave radiative forcing and atmospheric absorption that are caused by variations in the smoke and clouds.

Cairns, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2019

Sea Surface Salinity Retrievals from Aquarius Using Neural Networks

Even though the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from Aquarius are generally very close to in-situ measurements, the level of similarity varies with the region and with the circumstances of the observations (wind speed, sea surface temperature, etc.). SSS is currently retrieved from the brightness temperatures measured by Aquarius and applying the current theoretical model for the propagation and emission of the natural thermal radiation. In this contribution we consider an alternative retrieval approach based on a Neural Network (NN) with the goal of improving the subsets of Aquarius SSS data that are in poorer agreement within-situ measurements. The subset considered here are the SSS retrieved at latitudes higher than 30 ̊. The output of the NN approach are compared against in-situ measurements using four statistical metrics (correlation coefficient, bias, RMSD and 5% trimmed range). The output of the NN and the nominal Aquarius SSS are compared against SSS values from in-situ measurements and from ocean models. From these comparisons it appears that the output of the NN matches the in-situ measurements better than the nominal Aquarius SSS.

Soldo, Yan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA DEVELOP’s Communication Strategy for Sharing Applied Science Outcomes

NASA’s DEVELOP Program conducts rapid feasibility projects that enable the future workforce and current decision makers to collaborate and build capacity to use Earth science data to enhance environmental management. The program communicates its results and applications to a broad audience through multiple methods: social media, website blog posts, print materials, short project videos, an “Ambassador Corps,” scientific and policy conference presentations, community engagement activities, end-of-project presentations, project “hand-offs,” traditional publications (both gray literature and peer-reviewed), and a project archive gallery. This presentation will describe the various methods employed by DEVELOP to communicate the program’s scientific outputs, target audiences, general statistics, community response, and lessons learned.

Capacity Building↗
NASA NTRS1973

Prediction and measurement of the proportionality constant in statistical energy analysis of structures.

The fundamental equation of statistical energy analysis (SEA) states that the average power flow between two coupled vibrating systems is proportional to the difference in their average modal energies. Under certain circumstances it is possible to estimate the proportionality constant by modifying system boundary conditions on the separated systems and calculating or measuring changes in the systems. Newland's estimate, based upon blocking part of the system, is reexamined, and limitations are discussed. Three alternative methods which circumvent blocking are presented. These were applied to predict power flow in experiments on coupled beams and on coupled plates wherein power flow through the coupling was measured directly as a product of force times velocity. The measurements support the fundamental SEA relation, including the null power point where the average modal energies are equal.

Lotz, R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Groundwater sapping valleys: Experimental studies, geological controls and implications to the interpretation of valley networks on Mars

An integrated approach using experimental laboratory models, field studies of terrestrial analogs, and remote studies of terrestrial field sites were applied to the goals of understanding the nature and morphology of valley networks formed by groundwater sapping. In spite of problems with scaling, the experimental studies provide valuable insights into concepts relating to the initiation, development, and evolution of valleys by groundwater sapping. These investigations are also aimed at developing geomorphic criteria for distinguishing valleys formed by surface runoff from those formed by groundwater sapping processes. Channels that were field classified as sapping vs. runoff were successfully distinguished using statistical analysis of their respective morphologies; therefore, it may be possible to use similar techniques to interpret channel genesis on Mars. The terrestrial and flume studies provide the ground truth dataset which can be used (and will be during the present year) to help interpret the genesis of valley networks on Mars.

Kochel, R. Craig↗
NASA NTRS1994

Application of a Monte Carlo accuracy assessment tool to TDRS and GPS

In support of a NASA study on the application of radio interferometry to satellite orbit determination, MITRE developed a simulation tool for assessing interferometric tracking accuracy. Initially, the tool was applied to the problem of determining optimal interferometric station siting for orbit determination of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS). Subsequently, the Orbit Determination Accuracy Estimator (ODAE) was expanded to model the general batch maximum likelihood orbit determination algorithms of the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) with measurement types including not only group and phase delay from radio interferometry, but also range, range rate, angular measurements, and satellite-to-satellite measurements. The user of ODAE specifies the statistical properties of error sources, including inherent observable imprecision, atmospheric delays, station location uncertainty, and measurement biases. Upon Monte Carlo simulation of the orbit determination process, ODAE calculates the statistical properties of the error in the satellite state vector and any other parameters for which a solution was obtained in the orbit determination. This paper presents results from ODAE application to two different problems: (1)determination of optimal geometry for interferometirc tracking of TDRS, and (2) expected orbit determination accuracy for Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking of low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Conclusions about optimal ground station locations for TDRS orbit determination by radio interferometry are presented, and the feasibility of GPS-based tracking for IRIDIUM, a LEO mobile satellite communications (MOBILSATCOM) system, is demonstrated.

Pavloff, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Pressure broadening of rotational bands. I - A statistical theory

Absorption of electromagnetic waves by rotational transitions of molecules is formulated for the case in which the wave frequency is displaced from resonance by an amount large compared to the reciprocal duration of a typical binary collision, and also large compared to the differences between frequencies of the strong resonances of the gas. In this far-wing limit, Fano's relaxation operator is reduced to a scalar parameter which depends on the frequency displacement. This relaxation parameter is not symmetric with respect to reflection about resonance, but becomes symmetric when multiplied by the factor exp (h/2pi) (omega sub d)/2kT where omega sub d is the frequency displacement. The theory applies to dipolar molecules of any shape, in collisions with either dipolar or quadrupolar molecules.

Rosenkranz, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Biasing errors and corrections

The dependence of laser velocimeter measurement rate on flow velocity is discussed. Investigations outlining that any dependence is purely statistical, and is nonstationary both spatially and temporally, are described. Main conclusions drawn are that the times between successive particle arrivals should be routinely measured and the calculation of the velocity data rate correlation coefficient should be performed to determine if a dependency exists. If none is found, accept the data ensemble as an independent sample of the flow. If a dependency is found, the data should be modified to obtain an independent sample. Universal correcting procedures should never be applied because their underlying assumptions are not valid.

Meyers, James F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling the densification of metal matrix composite monotape

We present a first model that enables prediction of the density (and its time evolution) of a monotape lay-up subjected to a hot isostatic or vacuum hot pressing consolidation cycle. Our approach is to break down the complicated (and probabilistic) consolidation problem into simple, analyzable parts and to combine them in a way that correctly represents the statistical aspects of the problem, the change in the problem's interior geometry, and the evolving contributions of the different deformation mechanisms. The model gives two types of output. One is in the form of maps showing the relative density dependence upon pressure, temperature, and time for step function temperature and pressure cycles. They are useful for quickly determining the best place to begin developing an optimized process. The second gives the evolution of density over time for any (arbitrary) applied temperature and pressure cycle. This has promise for refining process cycles and possibly for process control. Examples of the models application are given for Ti3Al + Nb, gamma TiAl, Ti6Al4V, and pure aluminum.

Elzey, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1956

A reevaluaion of data on atmospheric turbulence and airplane gust loads for application in spectral calculations

The available information on the spectrum of atmospheric turbulence is first briefly reviewed. On the basis of these results, methods are developed for the conversion of available gust statistics normally given in terms of counts of gusts or acceleration peaks into a form appropriate for use in spectral calculations. The fundamental quantity for this purpose appears to be the probability distribution of the root-mean-square gust velocity. Estimates of this distribution are derived from data for a number of load histories of transport operations; also, estimates of the variation of this distribution with altitude and weather condition are derived from available data and the method of applying these results to the calculation of airplane gust-response histories in operations is also outlined. (author)

Press, Harry↗
NASA NTRS1998

Application of the Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method to Realistic Structures

The Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis method is a technique for obtaining the statistics of a desired response engineering quantity for a structure with non-deterministic parameters. The method uses measured data from modal testing of the structure as the input random variables, rather than more "primitive" quantities like geometry or material variation. This modal information is much more comprehensive and easily measured than the "primitive" information. The probabilistic analysis is carried out using either response surface reliability methods or Monte Carlo simulation. In previous work, the feasibility of the PDS method applied to a simple seven degree-of-freedom spring-mass system was verified. In this paper, extensive issues involved with applying the method to a realistic three-substructure system are examined, and free and forced response analyses are performed. The results from using the method are promising, especially when the lack of alternatives for obtaining quantitative output for probabilistic structures is considered.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of the Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data reviewed in our other presentation at this meeting (V. Uritsky, A. Klimas) show that bright night-side high-latitude UV emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC) that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques, and more, that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. Here, we report new results showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. Further, we find a strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

Klimas, Alex↗
NASA NTRS1997

Calibration of Direct Velocimetry Using Hot Wire Anemometry

We studied the functionality of the IFA300 Hot Wire Anemometry system and its feasibility for the calibration of Direct Estimator Velocimetry (DEV) using Laser Induced Florescence (LIF). The experimental setup consisted of a single-wire hot wire probe measuring one component of velocity, the anemometry computational hardware and software, an HP oscilloscope, and a table fan to produce a simple flow with fluctuations. Measurements were taken at several points in the stream wise and transverse directions in the flow and various parameters recorded such as mean velocities temperature, turbulence intensities, skewness coefficients and flatness coefficients. The IFA300 software also allowed us to perform statistical manipulations such as spectrum analysis on velocities samples and correlation. Utilization of data files, also produced by the anemometry software, and post analysis were performed to produce graphical representations of turbulent intensity versus probe position and a flow field velocity profile. We concluded that the IFA300 Hot Wire Anemometry system is a reliable and functional method for calibration of DEV using LIF. Our future intentions are to set up a test chamber such that both velocity measurement techniques can be applied simultaneously, thus the calibration.

Holland, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Two-Dimensional Variational Analysis Method for NSCAT Ambiguity Removal: Methodology, Sensitivity, and Tuning

In this study, we apply a two-dimensional variational analysis method (2d-VAR) to select a wind solution from NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) ambiguous winds. 2d-VAR determines a "best" gridded surface wind analysis by minimizing a cost function. The cost function measures the misfit to the observations, the background, and the filtering and dynamical constraints. The ambiguity closest in direction to the minimizing analysis is selected. 2d-VAR method, sensitivity and numerical behavior are described. 2d-VAR is compared to statistical interpolation (OI) by examining the response of both systems to a single ship observation and to a swath of unique scatterometer winds. 2d-VAR is used with both NSCAT ambiguities and NSCAT backscatter values. Results are roughly comparable. When the background field is poor, 2d-VAR ambiguity removal often selects low probability ambiguities. To avoid this behavior, an initial 2d-VAR analysis, using only the two most likely ambiguities, provides the first guess for an analysis using all the ambiguities or the backscatter data. 2d-VAR and median filter selected ambiguities usually agree. Both methods require horizontal consistency, so disagreements occur in clumps, or as linear features. In these cases, 2d-VAR ambiguities are often more meteorologically reasonable and more consistent with satellite imagery.

Hoffman, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of Earth's Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data show that bright night-side high-latitude W emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. These analyses will be reviewed. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques (and more) that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. New results will be presented showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. A strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions will be demonstrated. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

Klimas, Alexander J.↗