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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Efficient and robust stability analysis in the internal energy, volume, and moles (UVN) space

Hydrodynamic simulation of fluids in vessels is often based on the internal energy (U), volume (V), and the number of moles of all components ( re N = N 1 , N 2 , ..., N n ) as the working variables to determine the thermodynamic state by finding the global maximum of entropy. The procedure of finding the equilibrium state may be divided into two steps: stability analysis and phase-split computations. Stability analysis is performed first, and the phase-split computation proceeds if the system is unstable. Most of the past work on UVN space has been based on phase-split computations, while the stability analysis is barely investigated. Furthermore, previous studies for the stability analysis use only Newton's method to solve the non-linear algebraic equations. We present an efficient and robust approach for stability analysis where UVN is specified. The successive substitution iteration (SSI) is used to provide good initial guesses for Newton's method. The proposed approach results in a reduced number of unknowns and does not require a large number of iterations to achieve convergence in Newton's method. Overall, our proposed formulation is compatible with different equations of state and is applicable to both pure component and multi-components. The robustness and efficiency of the algorithm for stability analysis are demonstrated in various examples.

02 PETROLEUM↗

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗

Sensitivity Analysis of an Electrospray Dehumidification System

Electrically enhanced condensation achieved by an electrospray system can enhance dehumidification in HVAC applications if successfully scaled up. The first step towards scale-up is identifying critical design and operating parameters that significantly impact dehumidification for the electrospray system. Sensitivity analysis is one approach for identifying critical parameters. This paper presents a methodology that can efficiently perform quantitative sensitivity analysis on a computationally expensive high fidelity simulation model, which is a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the electrospray system. The methodology employs surrogate modeling and Sobol sensitivity analysis. We estimate the main and total effect Sobol sensitivity indices of four operating parameters of the electrospray system. The results reveal that the most important parameter is the size of the sprayed droplets, followed by the volumetric flow rate of the bulk air and injected water in the system. The water injection velocity of the spray was found to have little to no impact on dehumidification.

Young, David↗

Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: a Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land-atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%-20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.

Precipitation↗

Integrated nonlinear structural analysis and design

An integrated approach to the design optimization of structures which require nonlinear analysis is proposed. The optimization process begins with a linearized structural response and the amount of nonlinearity is increased as the optimum design becomes closer. The proposed approach has the potential of reducing substantially the computational cost of the optimization. Two truss examples are used for demonstration.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

Effects of free-stream turbulence on boundary-layer transition

Traditional methods for the prediction of the transition location rest either on lump parameters like the momentum thickness or on N factors obtained from the approximate linear stability characteristics of the flow. These methods account for the effects of the disturbance environment by empirical correlation with observed transition locations. We have developed a highly efficient and accurate approach to stability analysis and transition simulation based on parabolized stability equations (PSE). Here we present a first application of this approach to realistic problems of practical interest. We study the effects of the turbulence level on transition and heat transfer in flows over flat plates, curved plates, and the stator blade of a gas-turbine model. We discuss the formulation of an input model for the PSE analysis in the light of the present knowledge of receptivity mechanisms. The input model is used to compute transition locations for various configurations and flow conditions. The results compare favorably with experimental data.

Herbert, TH.↗

Modeling Plant Metabolism: From Network Reconstruction to Mechanistic Models

Mathematical modeling of plant metabolism allows the plant science community to understand the organization of plant metabolism, obtain quantitative insights into metabolic functions, and derive engineering strategies for manipulation of metabolism. Among the various modeling approaches, metabolic pathway analysis can dissect the basic functional modes of subsections of core metabolism, such as photorespiration, and reveal how classical definitions of metabolic pathways have overlapping functionality. In current research using constraint-based modeling in plants, numerous computational tools are currently available to analyze large-scale and genome-scale metabolic networks. For 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, principles of isotopic steady state have been used to study heterotrophic plant tissues, while nonstationary isotope labeling approaches are amenable to the study of photoautotrophic and secondary metabolism. Enzyme kinetic models explore pathways in mechanistic detail, and we discuss different approaches to determine or estimate kinetic parameters. In this review, we describe recent advances and challenges in modeling plant metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Design-Space Data: Informing Common Design Decisions with Pre-Simulated Data

Design Space Exploration (DSE) analysis techniques represent a data-centric approach to integrating performance analysis in early design phases when there is the greatest potential to cheaply improve the energy efficiency of a building. We focus on a novel extension of DSE called Universal Design Space Exploration (UDSE), which leverages massive databases of pre-simulated analysis that represent all possible outcomes of common analysis workflows. These databases, called Design Spaces, become “universal” when a single pre-simulated design space can be re-applied to future unknown projects. Unlike current simulation methods, which require a design to exist before it can be analyzed and often take minutes or hours to simulate, UDSE leverages pre-simulation to deliver rapid and relevant insight as new designs are conceptualized. The data underpinning UDSE enables advanced statistical and Artificial Intelligence methods, allowing UDSE to deliver a greater understanding of the larger problem being explored, rather than simply delivering analysis of several pre-conceived design options. We believe that UDSE can provide instantaneous, relevant analysis for all building design projects at negligible cost. This paper has two main goals, to develop a relevant Universal Design Space that showcases the potential of UDSE and to release this data freely to industry and academia; thereby lowering the barrier to entry to digital literacy in statistics, ML and AI within the architecture, engineering, construction (AEC) industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Delamination and debonding of materials

The general topics consist of stress analysis, mechanical behavior, and fractography/NDI of composite laminates. Papers are presented on a dynamic hybrid finite-element analysis for interfacial cracks in composites, energy release rate during delamination crack growth in composite laminates, matrix deformation and fracture in graphite-reinforced epoxies, and the role of delamination and damage development on the strength of thick notched laminates. In addition, consideration is given to a new ply model for interlaminar stress analysis, a fracture mechanics approach for designing adhesively bonded joints, the analysis of local delaminations and their influence on composite laminate behavior, and moisture and temperature effects on the mixed-mode delamination fracture of unidirectional graphite/epoxy.

Johnson, W. S.↗

Sensor Analysis, Modeling, and Test for Robust Propulsion System Autonomy

An approach is presented supporting analysis, modeling, and test validation of operational flight instrumentation (OFI) that facilitates critical functions for the Space Launch System (SLS) main propulsion system (MPS). Certain types of OFI sensors were shown to exhibit highly nonlinear and non-gaussian noise characteristics during acceptance testing, motivating the development of advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) capability to support algorithm verification and flight certification. Hardware model and algorithm simulation fidelity was informed by a risk scoring metric; redesign of high-risk algorithms using test-validated sensor models significantly improved their expected performance as evaluated using Monte Carlo acceptance sampling methods. Autonomous functions include closed-loop ullage pressure regulation, pressurant leak detection, and fault isolation for automated safing and crew caution and warning (C&W).

Orr, Jeb S.↗

A new approach to the design of time varying control systems with application to the space shuttle booster

A general approach toward the analysis and design of closed loop control for slowly time-varying linear systems was investigated. The approach is by the method of generalized multiple scales, in which slow and fast dynamics are systematically separated by employing different clocks which measure time at varying rates. The clocks, which are necessarily nonlinear functions of time, so that the system dynamics are asymptotically invariant with respect to the new time scale. A transfer function relating the output to the input for general linear slowly time-varying systems is developed and represents the actual system under certain conditions. The clock functions are shown to satisfy an algebraic characteristic equation and can be determined in general in terms of the coefficients.

Ramnath, R. V.↗

Practical Conceptual Design of Quieter Urban VTOL Aircraft

A toolchain and process for conceptual design of VTOL rotorcraft, employing low- and mid-fidelity tools is presented. The approach is capable of providing more quantitatively-credible trades between noise, size, and cost metrics than the methods commonly used for conceptual design. In addition to a general conceptual design tool, the approach employs comprehensive analysis for trim, blade motion, and airloads; these are then used by acoustic analysis software to develop source sound, propagate it, and calculate noise metrics. A key aspect of the approach is flexibility to assess varied aircraft types and different technologies and design features. Vehicles are sized using a representative Urban Air Mobility design mission. Demonstration cases are presented for a single main rotor helicopter, quadrotor, side-by-side helicopter, and lift+cruise aircraft. Noise metrics used for demonstration are the FAA/EASA certification Effective Perceived Noise Levels for takeoff, flyover, and approach. The concept aircraft in this study are shown to achieve reductions in noise relative the initial design points, with changes in mission performance and cost as a consequence. Many of the designs are predicted to be tens of EPNdB quieter in the certification metrics than existing helicopters.

Conceptual Design↗

Sensitivity Analysis of ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) Data Communication System

This paper discusses analytical approaches to evaluating performance of Spacecraft On-Board Computing systems, thereby ultimately achieving a reliable spacecraft data communications systems. The sensitivity analysis approach of memory system on the ProSEDS (Propulsive Small Expendable Deployer System) as a part of its data communication system will be investigated. Also, general issues and possible approaches to reliable Spacecraft On-Board Interconnection Network and Processor Array will be shown. The performance issues of a spacecraft on-board computing systems such as sensitivity, throughput, delay and reliability will be introduced and discussed.

Park, Nohpill↗

Finite Element Analysis Validation for Stitched, Blade-Stiffened Aerospace Structures

Increased performance and manufacturing rates for aircraft or spacecraft structures may be achieved using stitched and resin infused composite structures. In order to carry out design and analysis of stitched composites, 2-dimensional (2-D) and 3-dimensional (3-D) modeling approaches for stitched and non-stitched carbon fiber vacuum-infused parts were developed. These analysis approaches will be compared with data from previous test specimens tested at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) under tension and bending load conditions. The preliminary results presented herein for the 2-D and 3-D models capture the strain patterns observed in digital image correlation (DIC) data for stitched, blade-stiffened specimens tested in either tension or bending. The analysis method study presented for these specimens is part of a larger analysis development effort planned for stitched composites, with the modeling practices developed here contributing to those that may be applied to a new set of blade- stiffened test specimens that are currently being manufactured for testing as well as the design of a blade stringer pull-off test. These future tests are expected to provide opportunities to validate the developed modeling approaches for predictive purposes, and to provide opportunities for further refinement of the modeling approaches.

HiCAM↗

Diversion Path Analysis: A Proposed Methodology to Develop an MC&A Approach for Liquid-Fueled Molten Salt Reactors

Nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) is a critical element of both the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and US Department of Energy (DOE)’s domestic safeguards and security requirements. NRC licensees are required, under Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Part 74 to establish and maintain an MC&A program that captures and records the quantities and locations of special nuclear material (SNM) at the facility. Along with physical protection, MC&A is a key element of domestic nuclear material safeguards that enables the NRC to ensure that SNM is controlled and accounted for. SNM, per 10 CFR Part 74, refers to plutonium, 233 U, and uranium enriched in the isotope 233 U or 235 U, but does not include source material. Periodic physical inventories, coupled with material balance evaluations, are effective and demonstrated tools to account for and detect theft or diversion of SNM in facilities containing SNM in bulk material form (i.e., not in discrete, countable items). Historically in the United States, these types of facilities have included fuel fabrication, conversion, and enrichment facilities. In comparison, reactors have relied on item counting of assemblies and control of SNM while in containment (e.g., a sealed reactor pressure vessel) because, to date, reactor fuel has been in item form. In liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs), unlike traditional light water reactors (LWRs) or bulk facilities, bulk SNM quantities can change significantly during operation as a result of depletion and transmutation. This introduces challenges to the use of traditional periodic physical inventories and material balance evaluations to detect theft or diversion of SNM in reactors that use SNM in bulk material form. Liquid-fueled (i.e., salt-fueled) MSR facilities are MSRs that use SNM within a salt eutectic as the fuel. The SNM is in a bulk material form any time it is outside of fresh or spent fuel storage containers. Some examples of when SNM will be in bulk form in the facility are during addition of fuel to the reactor system, while fuel is circulating in operation, and while fuel is in a drain tank. Periodic physical inventories and material balance evaluations can likely be effectively applied to many portions of an MSR facility, including all areas where depletion and transmutation are not significantly changing the quantities of SNM within the control area. Within an MSR facility, this would include fresh fuel receipt and loading, waste streams that may contain SNM, irradiated fuel storage outside of the reactor core, and any irradiated fuel processing that may happen after SNM has been removed from the reactor. All of these process steps could rely on measurements of SNM quantities compared with documented inventories. Any discrepancies from predicted (i.e., book) inventories and measured inventories could be quantified as inventory differences, consistent with traditional MC&A guidance from the NRC (e.g., in NUREG-1065 Revision 2, NUREG-2159 Revision 1, and RG 5.29 Revision 2). Within the reactor system, additions and removals to the book inventory include depletion of the SNM (e.g., fission of 235 U), which complicates the use of physical inventories. SNM control, however, can also likely be effectively applied to detect theft of SNM throughout a liquid-fueled MSR facility. To complement these approaches, prior technical reports have identified that a diversion path analysis may be a useful, risk-informed, and performance-based tool to determine suitable elements of an MC&A approach for the reactor system within a liquid-fueled MSR facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Bayesian inference in band excitation scanning probe microscopy for optimal dynamic model selection in imaging

The universal tendency in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) over the last two decades is to transition from simple 2D imaging to complex detection and spectroscopic imaging modes. The emergence of complex SPM engines brings forth the challenge of reliable data interpretation, i.e., conversion from detected signals to descriptors specific to tip–surface interactions and subsequently to material’s properties. In this work, we implemented a Bayesian inference approach for the analysis of the image formation mechanisms in band excitation SPM. Compared to the point estimates in classical functional fit approaches, Bayesian inference allows for the incorporation of extant knowledge of materials and probe behavior in the form of corresponding prior distribution and return the information on the material functionality in the form of readily interpretable posterior distributions. We explore the nonlinear mechanical behaviors spatially in a classical ferroelectric material, PbTiO 3 . We observe the non-trivial evolution of the Duffing stiffness term and the nonlinearity of the sample surface, determine spatial clustering of the nonlinear response, and perform a Landau analysis on predicting the nonlinear coefficient, which indicates that ferroelectric behavior can be a cause of the observed results. These observations suggest that the spectrum of anomalous behaviors at the ferroelectric domain walls may be broader than previously believed and can extend to non-conventional mechanical properties in addition to static and microwave conductance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A new approach to the design of time-varying control systems with application to the Space Shuttle Boost

A general approach to the analysis and design of closed-loop control for slowly time-varying linear systems is presented. The approach uses the method of generalized multiple scales in which slow and fast dynamics are systematically separated by employing different 'clocks' which measure time at varying rates. The clocks, which are necessarily nonlinear functions of time, are chosen in such a manner that the system dynamics are asymptotically invariant with respect to the new time scale. A transfer function relating the output to the input for general linear slowly time-varying systems is developed and represents the actual system under certain conditions. The clock function is shown to satisfy an algebraic characteristic equation and can be determined in terms of the coefficients. The approach can be viewed as an extension of time-invariant linear feedback control theory.

Ramanth, R. V.↗