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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Validation of Weather Forecasting Products

Meteorological modeling plays a pivotal role in operational safety and emergency response at the Savannah River Site (SRS). This study focuses on verifying the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) Version 4.3 through Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) analyses of temperature, dew point, and wind speed over a decade. Using observed data from SRS, we assessed RAMS' accuracy, revealing seasonal biases and error trends. Results indicate RAMS' strengths in mild weather conditions but challenges during seasonal extremes and wind speed predictions due to measurement disparities. Future research aims to expand verification to other models and parameters, advocating for enhanced forecasting accuracy crucial for safeguarding personnel and community well-being.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Retrieval of ocean surface and atmospheric parameters from multichannel microwave radiometric measurements

Methods for the retrieval of ocean surface temperature, surface wind speed, rain rate, cloud height, and the amounts of water vapor and nonprecipitated liquid water over the ocean from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) data are presented. The sensitivity of retrieval algorithms for wind speed and sea surface temperature, in the absence of rain, to the undetected presence of rain, is discussed along with the accuracy of a more general method for the retrieval of rain rate in conjunction with other meteorological parameters. It is concluded that the inability to retrieve the average rain rate accurately at small rain angles is due to the inability of SMMR to distinguish between small raindrops and nonprecipitating droplets.

Chang, A. T. C.↗

Forces on Elliptic Cylinders in Uniform Air Stream

This report presents the results of wind tunnel tests on four elliptic cylinders with various fineness ratios, conducted in the Navy Aerodynamic Laboratory, Washington. The object of the tests was to investigate the characteristics of sections suitable for streamline wire which normally has an elliptic section with a fineness ratio of 4.0; also to learn whether a reduction in fineness ratio would result in improvement; also to determine the pressure distribution on the model of fineness ratio of 4. Four elliptic cylinders with fineness ratios of 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and 4.0 were made and then tested in the 8 by 8 wind tunnel; first, for cross-wind force, drag, and yawing moment at 30 miles an hour and various angles of yaw; next for drag 0 degree pitch and 0 degree yaw and various wind speeds; then for end effect on the smallest and largest models; and lastly for pressure distribution over the surface of the largest model at 0 degree pitch and 0 degree yaw and various wind speeds. In all tests, the length of the model was transverse to the current. The results are given for standard air density, p = .002378 slug per cubic foot. This account is a slight revised form of report no. 315. A summary of conclusions is given at the end of the text. (author)

Zahm, A F↗

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗

High-Speed Wind-Tunnel Tests of a 1/16-Scale Model of the D-558 Research Airplane Air-Stream Fluctuations at the Tail of the D-558-1 Airplane

An investigation of the air-stream fluctuations at the tail of the D-558-1 airplane has been made at high speed for the purpose of determining the vertical region in which the horizontal tail may be placed without becoming subject to tail buffeting. The investigation was made for a range of Mach numbers from 0.775 to 0.907, and a range of vertical positions at the tall to include two proposed horizontal-tail positions. The tests were made at two angles of attack, 0,2 deg. and 4.2 deg., representative, of the angles of attack for high-speed level flight and a pull-out condition.

Pendley, Robert E.↗

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer

Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗

Determination of mean surface position and sea state from the radar return of a short-pulse satellite altimeter

Using the specular point theory of scatter from a very rough surface, the average backscatter cross section per unit area per radar cell width is derived for a cell located at a given height above the mean sea surface. This result is then applied to predict the average radar cross section observed by a short-pulse altimeter as a function of time for two modes of operation: pulse-limited and beam-limited configurations. For a pulse-limited satellite altimeter, a family of curves is calculated showing the distortion of the leading edge of the receiver output signal as a function of sea state (i.e., wind speed). A signal processing scheme is discussed that permits an accurate determination of the mean surface position--even in high seas--and, as a by-product, the estimation of the significant seawave height (or wind speed above the surface). Comparison of these analytical results with experimental data for both pulse-limited and beam-limited operation lends credence to the model. Such a model should aid in the design of short-pulse altimeters for accurate determination of the geoid over the oceans, as well as for the use of such altimeters for orbital sea-state monitoring.

Barrick, D. E.↗

Latitudinal properties of the solar wind from studies of ionic comet tails

A statistical analysis is presented of the orientations of ionic comet tails in the solar wind. The analysis indicates that the radial solar wind speed is not necessarily higher near the solar poles than near the equator. The results refer to a long-term, global flow pattern and do not refer to short-term variations of solar wind speed.

Brandt, J. C.↗

Low-speed wind-tunnel results for symmetrical NASA LS(1)-0013 airfoil

A wind-tunnel test has been conducted in the Langley Low-Turbulence Pressure Tunnel to evaluate the performance of a symmetrical NASA LS(1)-0013 airfoil which is a 13-percent-thick, low-speed airfoil. The airfoil contour was obtained from the thickness distribution of a 13-percent-thick, high-performance airfoil developed for general aviation airplanes. The tests were conducted at Mach numbers from 0.10 tp 0.37 over a Reynolds number range from about 0.6 to 12.0 X 10 to the 6th power. The angle of attack varied from about -8 to 20 degrees. The results indicate that the aerodynamic characteristics of the present airfoil are similar to, but slightly better than, those of the NACA 0012 airfoil.

Ferris, James C.↗

Solar Powered Flight on Venus

Solar powered flight within the Venus environment from the surface to the upper atmosphere was evaluated. The objective was to see if a station-keeping mission was possible within this environment based on a solar power generating system. Due to the slow rotation rate of Venus it would be possible to remain within the day light side of the planet for extended periods of time. However the high wind speeds and thick cloud cover make a station-keeping solar powered mission challenging. The environment of Venus was modeled as a function of altitude from the surface. This modeling included density, temperature, solar attenuation and wind speed. Using this environmental model flight with both airships and aircraft was considered to evaluate whether a station-keeping mission is feasible. The solar power system and flight characteristics of both types of vehicles was modeled and power balance was set up to determine if the power available from the solar array was sufficient to provide enough thrust to maintain station over a fixed ground location.

Colozza, Anthony↗

Implementation of an Orographic Drag Scheme Considering Orographic Anisotropy in All Flow Directions in the Earth System Model CAS‐ESM 2.0

Abstract A reasonable representation of orographic anisotropy in earth system models is vital for improving weather and climate modeling. In this study, we implement the orographic drag scheme, including 3‐D orographic anisotropy (3D‐AFD), into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM 2.0). Three groups of simulations named sensitivity run, medium‐range forecast, and seasonal forecast respectively are conducted using the updated CAS‐ESM model and validated against station observation and reanalysis data. These simulations are run using the three schemes—3D‐AFD scheme, the 3D orographic anisotropy scheme for the eight‐direction (3D‐8x), and the 2D isotropic scheme (2D)—to compare their performance in CAS‐ESM 2.0. Sensitivity runs show that the 3D‐AFD provide more continuous transition of calculated drag as function of wind direction than the 3D‐8x, while the drag calculated using the 2D scheme show no variation with change of wind direction. Enhanced drag in the medium range and seasonal forecast using the updated CAS‐ESM alleviates part of the winter wind speed bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the cold bias over TP and the Siberian polar region. It is shown that the 3D‐AFD scheme alleviates more bias than that of the 3D‐8x scheme (by wind speed reduction of 1 ∼ 2 m/s and temperature of 1 ∼ 2 K) especially in the seasonal forecast. The results suggest that reasonable representation of the orographic anisotropy is important in climate modeling.

Xie, Jinbo↗

Numerical Analysis of the Sea State Bias for Satellite Altimetry

Theoretical understanding of the dependence of sea state bias (SSB) on wind wave conditions has been achieved only for the case of a unidirectional wind-driven sea. Recent analysis of Geosat and TOPEX altimeter data showed that additional factors, such as swell, ocean currents, and complex directional properties of realistic wave fields, may influence SSB behavior. Here we investigate effects of two-dimensional multimodal wave spectra using a numerical model of radar reflection from a random, non-Gaussian surface. A recently proposed ocean wave spectrum is employed to describe sea surface statistics. The following findings appear to be of particular interest: (1) Sea swell has an appreciable effect in reducing the SSB coefficient compared with the pure wind sea case but has less effect on the actual SSB owing to the corresponding increase in significant wave height. (2) Hidden multimodal structure (the two-dimensional wavenumber spectrum contains separate peaks, for swell and wind seas, while the frequency spectrum looks unimodal) results in an appreciable change of SSB. (3) For unimodal, purely wind-driven seas, the influence of the angular spectral width is relatively unimportant; that is, a unidirectional sea provides a good qualitative model for SSB if the swell is absent. (4) The pseudo wave age is generally much better fo parametrization the SSB coefficient than the actual wave age (which is ill-defined for a multimodal sea) or wind speed. (5) SSB can be as high as 5% of the significant wave height, which is significantly greater than predicted by present empirical model functions tuned on global data sets. (6) Parameterization of SSB in terms of wind speed is likely to lead to errors due to the dependence on the (in practice, unknown) fetch.

Glazman, R. E.↗

Station Keeping of Small Outboard-Powered Boats

Three station keeping controllers have been developed which work to minimize displacement of a small outboard-powered vessel from a desired location. Each of these three controllers has a common initial layer that uses fixed-gain feedback control to calculate the desired heading of the vessel. A second control layer uses a common fixed-gain feedback controller to calculate the net forward thrust, one of two algorithms for controlling engine angle (Fixed-Gain Proportional-integral-derivative (PID) or PID with Adaptively Augmented Gains), and one of two algorithms for differential throttle control (Fixed-Gain PID and PID with Adaptive Differential Throttle gains), which work together to eliminate heading error. The three selected controllers are evaluated using a numerical simulation of a 33-foot center console vessel with twin outboards that is subject to wave, wind, and current disturbances. Each controller is tested for its ability to maintain position in the presence of three sets of environmental disturbances. These algorithms were tested with current velocity of 1.5 m/s, significant wave height of 0.5 m, and wind speeds of 2, 5, and 10 m/s. These values were chosen to model conditions a small vessel may experience in the Gulf Stream off of Fort Lauderdale. The Fixed-gain PID controller progressively got worse as wind speeds increased, while the controllers using adaptive methodologies showed consistent performance over all weather conditions and decreased heading error by as much as 20%. Thus, enhanced robustness to environmental changes has been gained by using an adaptive algorithm.

Fisher, A. D.↗

Verification studies of Seasat-A satellite scatterometer /SASS/ measurements

Two comparisons between Seasat-A satellite scatterometer (SASS) data and surface truth, obtained from the Gulf of Alaska Seasat Experiment and the Joint Air-Sea Interaction program, have been made to determine the behavior of SASS and its algorithms. The performance of SASS was first evaluated irrespective of the algorithms employed to convert the SASS data to geophysical parameters, which was done by separating the backscatter measurements into small bins of incidence and azimuth angles and polarity and regression against wind speed measurements. The algorithms were then tested by comparing their predicted slopes and y intercepts with those derived from the regressions, and by comparing each SASS backscatter measurement with the backscatter derived from the algorithms, and the given wind velocity from the observations. It was shown that SASS was insensitive to winds at high incidence angles for horizontal polarizations. Fairly high correlations were found between backscatter and wind speeds. The algorithms functioned well at mid-ranges of incidence angle and backscattering coefficient.

Halberstam, I.↗

A reevaluation of Stogryn's apparent temperature theory over the sea surface

The emission theory for the sea surface by Stogryn has been reevaluated. Results agree with Stogryn's paper except for small nadir angles where the apparent temperature versus wind speed behavior is in reverse of what was reported by Stogryn. By plotting the change in contributions by the sea surface emission and sky temperature scattered toward the radiometer as a function of nadir angle at two different wind speeds, it is found that the sky temperature effect is dominating at small nadir angles, while the change in surface emission becomes increasingly more important at larger nadir angles. It is also found that at nadir higher emission is associated with the polarization where E(arrow) field is aligned along the upwind direction than the one along the crosswind direction.

Fung, A. K.↗

Simulations for Planning of Liquid Hydrogen Spill Test

In order to better understand the complex pooling and vaporization of a liquid hydrogen spill, Sandia National Laboratories is conducting a highly instrumented, controlled experiment inside their Shock Tube Facility. Simulations were run before the experiment to help with the planning of experimental conditions, including sensor placement and cross wind velocity. This paper describes the modeling used in this planning process and its main conclusions. Sierra Suite’s Fuego, an in-house computational fluid dynamics code, was used to simulate a RANS model of a liquid hydrogen spill with five crosswind velocities: 0.45, 0.89, 1.34, 1.79, and 2.24 m/s. Two pool sizes were considered: a diameter of 0.85 m and a diameter of 1.7. A grid resolution study was completed on the smaller pool size with a 1.34 m/s crosswind. A comparison of the length and height of the plume of flammable hydrogen vaporizing from the pool shows that the plume becomes longer and remains closer to the ground with increasing wind speed. The plume reaches the top of the facility only in the 0.45 m/s case. From these results, we concluded that it will be best for the spacing and location of the concentration sensors to be reconfigured for each wind speed during the experiment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A laboratory investigation of electromagnetic bias in sea level measurements by microwave altimeters

To contribute to a better understanding of the electromagnetic bias in radar altimetry, a series of experiments was conducted using a focused beam radar set at 13.5-GHz frequency. For pure wind wave fields, the authors found the bias to be a quadratic function of each of the commonly used parameters, namely, the significant wave height, the wind speed, the water elevation skewness, and significant slope. The bias divided by the significant wave height is a linear function of these parameters. The coefficients in bias representation as a function of either the significant wave height or the wind speed are significantly different from values obtained in field experiments. This led to the conclusion that none of the latter parameters can be taken solely to account for all observed bias variations. Instead, dimensionless parameters such as the wave skewness or a dimensionless wave height are shown to be more appropriate.

Branger, H.↗