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NASA NTRS2011

Inter-Comparison of Lightning Trends from Ground-Based Networks During Severe Weather: Applications Toward GLM

The planned GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) will provide total lightning data on the location and intensity of thunderstorms over a hemispheric spatial domain. Ongoing GOES-R research activities are demonstrating the utility of total flash rate trends for enhancing forecasting skill of severe storms. To date, GLM total lightning proxy trends have been well served by ground-based VHF systems such as the Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The NALMA (and other similar networks in Washington DC and Oklahoma) provide high detection efficiency (> 90%) and location accuracy (< 1 km) observations of total lightning within about 150 km from network center. To expand GLM proxy applications for high impact convective weather (e.g., severe, aviation hazards), it is desirable to investigate the utility of additional sources of continuous lightning that can serve as suitable GLM proxy over large spatial scales (order 100 s to 1000 km or more), including typically data denied regions such as the oceans. Potential sources of GLM proxy include ground-based long-range (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning networks such as the relatively new Vaisala Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) and Weatherbug Total Lightning Network (WTLN). Before using these data in GLM research applications, it is necessary to compare them with LMAs and well-quantified cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning networks, such as Vaisala s National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), for assessment of total and CG lightning location accuracy, detection efficiency and flash rate trends. Preliminary inter-comparisons from these lightning networks during selected severe weather events will be presented and their implications discussed.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through a case study example, synoptic-scale features evident in single-channel water vapor imagery are shown in the context of the air mass product. Other products, such as the "nighttime microphysics" RGB, are useful in the detection of low clouds and fog. Nighttime microphysics products from MODIS offer some advantages over single-channel or spectral difference techniques and will be discussed in the context of a case study. Finally, other RGB products from SEVIRI are being demonstrated as precursors to GOES-R within the GOES-R Proving Ground. Examples of "natural color" and "dust" imagery will be shown with relevant applications.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Two-Dimensional Distribution of Volatiles in the Lunar Regolith from Space Weathering Simulations

We present simulations of space weathering effects on ice deposits in regions of permanent shadow on the Moon. These Monte Carlo simulations follow the effects of space weathering processes on the distribution of the volatiles over time. The model output constrains the coherence of volatile deposits with depth, lateral separation, and time. The results suggest that ice sheets become broken and buried with time. As impacts begin to puncture an initially coherent surficial ice sheet, small areas with a deficit of ice compared to surrounding areas are formed first. As time progresses, holes become prevalent and the anomalous regions are local enhancements of ice concentration in a volume. The 3-D distribution is also heterogeneous because the ice is buried to varying depths in different locations. Analysis of the coherence of ice on 10 cm scales predicts that putative ice sheets in anomalous radar craters are < 100 Myr old. Surface frost becomes homogenized within 20 Myr. The simulations show the data from the LCROSS impact and surrounding region are consistent with the ice deposit in Cabeus being >1000 Myr old. For future in situ analysis of cold trap volatiles, a horizontal range of 10 m is sufficient to acquire surface-based measurements of heterogeneously distributed ice. These results also support previous analyses that Mercury's cold traps are young.

Hurley, Dana M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anchorage Arrival Scheduling Under Off-Nominal Weather Conditions

Weather can cause flight diversions, passenger delays, additional fuel consumption and schedule disruptions at any high volume airport. The impacts are particularly acute at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska due to its importance as a major international portal. To minimize the impacts due to weather, a multi-stage scheduling process is employed that is iteratively executed, as updated aircraft demand and/or airport capacity data become available. The strategic scheduling algorithm assigns speed adjustments for flights that originate outside of Anchorage Center to achieve the proper demand and capacity balance. Similarly, an internal departure-scheduling algorithm assigns ground holds for pre-departure flights that originate from within Anchorage Center. Tactical flight controls in the form of airborne holding are employed to reactively account for system uncertainties. Real-world scenarios that were derived from the January 16, 2012 Anchorage visibility observations and the January 12, 2012 Anchorage arrival schedule were used to test the initial implementation of the scheduling algorithm in fast-time simulation experiments. Although over 90% of the flights in the scenarios arrived at Anchorage without requiring any delay, pre-departure scheduling was the dominant form of control for Anchorage arrivals. Additionally, tactical scheduling was used extensively in conjunction with the pre-departure scheduling to reactively compensate for uncertainties in the arrival demand. For long-haul flights, the strategic scheduling algorithm performed best when the scheduling horizon was greater than 1,000 nmi. With these long scheduling horizons, it was possible to absorb between ten and 12 minutes of delay through speed control alone. Unfortunately, the use of tactical scheduling, which resulted in airborne holding, was found to increase as the strategic scheduling horizon increased because of the additional uncertainty in the arrival times of the aircraft. Findings from these initial experiments indicate that it is possible to schedule arrivals into Anchorage with minimal delays under low-visibility conditions with less disruption to high-cost, international flights.

Grabbe, Shon↗

NASA NTRS2012

Pilot Convective Weather Decision Making in En Route Airspace

The present research investigates characteristics exhibited in pilot convective weather decision making in en route airspace. In a part-task study, pilots performed weather avoidance under various encounter scenarios. Results showed that the margins of safety that pilots maintain from storms are as fluid as deviation decisions themselves.

Wu, Shu-Chieh↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Real Time Space Weather Support for Chandra X-ray Observatory Operations

NASA launched the Chandra X-ray Observatory in July 1999. Soon after first light in August 1999, however, degradation in the energy resolution and charge transfer efficiency of the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) x-ray detectors was observed. The source of the degradation was quickly identified as radiation damage in the charge-transfer channel of the front-illuminated CCDs, by weakly penetrating ("soft", 100-500 keV) protons as Chandra passed through the Earth s radiation belts and ring currents. As soft protons were not considered a risk to spacecraft health before launch, the only on-board radiation monitoring system is the Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) which was included on Chandra with the primary purpose of monitoring energetic solar particle events. Further damage to the ACIS detector has been successfully mitigated through a combination of careful mission planning, autonomous on-board radiation protection, and manual intervention based upon real-time monitoring of the soft-proton environment. The AE-8 and AP-8 trapped radiation models and Chandra Radiation Models are used to schedule science operations in regions of low proton flux. EPHIN has been used as the primary autonomous in-situ radiation trigger; but, it is not sensitive to the soft protons that damage the front-illuminated CCDs. Monitoring of near-real-time space weather data sources provides critical information on the proton environment outside the Earth's magnetosphere due to solar proton events and other phenomena. The operations team uses data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to provide near-real-time monitoring of the proton environment; however, these data do not give a representative measure of the soft-proton (less than 1 MeV) flux in Chandra s high elliptical orbit. The only source of relevant measurements of sub-MeV protons is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite at L1, with real-time data provided by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This presentation will discuss radiation mitigation against proton damage, including models and real-time data sources used to protect the ACIS detector system.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Displaying Composite and Archived Soundings in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

In a previous task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed spatial and temporal climatologies of lightning occurrence based on eight atmospheric flow regimes. The AMU created climatological, or composite, soundings of wind speed and direction, temperature, and dew point temperature at four rawinsonde observation stations at Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, for each of the eight flow regimes. The composite soundings were delivered to the National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) office for display using the National version of the Skew-T Hodograph analysis and Research Program (NSHARP) software program. The NWS MLB requested the AMU make the composite soundings available for display in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), so they could be overlaid on current observed soundings. This will allow the forecasters to compare the current state of the atmosphere with climatology. This presentation describes how the AMU converted the composite soundings from NSHARP Archive format to Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format, so that the soundings could be displayed in AWl PS. The NetCDF is a set of data formats, programming interfaces, and software libraries used to read and write scientific data files. In AWIPS, each meteorological data type, such as soundings or surface observations, has a unique NetCDF format. Each format is described by a NetCDF template file. Although NetCDF files are in binary format, they can be converted to a text format called network Common data form Description Language (CDL). A software utility called ncgen is used to create a NetCDF file from a CDL file, while the ncdump utility is used to create a CDL file from a NetCDF file. An AWIPS receives soundings in Binary Universal Form for the Representation of Meteorological data (BUFR) format (http://dss.ucar.edu/docs/formats/bufr/), and then decodes them into NetCDF format. Only two sounding files are generated in AWIPS per day. One file contains all of the soundings received worldwide between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC, and the other includes all soundings between 1200 UTC and 0000 UTC. In order to add the composite soundings into AWIPS, a procedure was created to configure, or localize, AWIPS. This involved modifying and creating several configuration text files. A unique fourcharacter site identifier was created for each of the 32 soundings so each could be viewed separately. The first three characters were based on the site identifier of the observed sounding, while the last character was based on the flow regime. While researching the localization process for soundings, the AMU discovered a method of archiving soundings so old soundings would not get purged automatically by AWl PS. This method could provide an alternative way of localizing AWl PS for composite soundings. In addition, this would allow forecasters to use archived soundings in AWIPS for case studies. A test sounding file in NetCDF format was written in order to verify the correct format for soundings in AWIPS. After the file was viewed successfully in AWIPS, the AMU wrote a software program in the Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) language to convert the 32 composite soundings from NSHARP Archive to CDL format. The ncgen utility was then used to convert the CDL file to a NetCDF file. The NetCDF file could then be read and displayed in AWIPS.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

NASA NTRS2013

Challenges for Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

Effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. The effort to transition scientific knowledge to a useful application is not a research nor is it operations, but an activity that connects two. Successful transitioning must be an intentional effort with a clear goal and measureable outcome. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Spann, James↗

NASA NTRS2008

Displaying Composite and Archived Soundings in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

This presentation describes work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to add composite soundings to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). This allows National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to compare the current atmospheric state with climatology. In a previous task, the AMU created composite soundings for four rawinsonde observation stations in Florida, for each of eight flow regimes. The composite soundings were delivered to the NWS Melbourne (MLB) office for display using the NSHARP software program. NWS MLB requested that the AMU make the composite soundings available for display in AWIPS. The AMU first created a procedure to customize AWIPS so composite soundings could be displayed. A unique four-character identifier was created for each of the 32 composite soundings. The AMIU wrote a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (TclITk) software program to convert the composite soundings from NSHARP to Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format. The NetCDF files were then displayable by AWIPS.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

NASA NTRS2013

Filament Eruptions, Jets, and Space Weather

Previously, from chromospheric H alpha and coronal X‐ray movies of the Sun's polar coronal holes, it was found that nearly all coronal jets (greater than 90%) are one or the other of two roughly equally common different kinds, different in how they erupt: standard jets and blowout jets (Yamauchi et al 2004, Apl, 605, 5ll: Moore et all 2010, Apj, 720, 757). Here, from inspection of SDO/AIA He II 304 A movies of 54 polar x-ray jets observed in Hinode/XRT movies, we report, as Moore et al (2010) anticipated, that (1) most standard x-ray jets (greater than 80%) show no ejected plasma that is cool enough (T is less than or approximately 10(exp 5K) to be seen in the He II 304 A movies; (2) nearly all blownout X-ray jets (greater than 90%) show obvious ejection of such cool plasma; (3) whereas when cool plasma is ejected in standard X-ray jets, it shows no lateral expansion, the cool plasma ejected in blowout X-ray jets shows strong lateral expansion; and (4) in many blowout X-ray jets, the cool plasma ejection displays the erupting-magnetic-rope form of clasic filament eruptions and is thereby seen to be a miniature filament eruption. The XRT movies also showed most blowout X-ray jets to be larger and brighter, and hence to apparently have more energy, than most standard X-ray jets. These observations (1) confirm the dichotomy of coronal jets, (2) agree with the Shibata model for standard jets, and (3) support the conclusion of Moore et al (2010) that in blowout jets the magnetic-arch base of the jet erupts in the manner of the much larger magnetic arcades in which the core field, the field rooted along the arcade's polarity inversion line, is sheared and twisted (sigmoid), often carries a cool‐plasma filament, and erupts to blowout the arcade, producing a CME. From Hinode/SOT Ca II movies of the polar limb, Sterling et al (2010, ApJ, 714, L1) found that chromospheric Type‐II spicules show a dichotomy of eruption dynamics similar to that found here for the cool‐plasma component of coronal X‐ray jets. This favors the idea that Type‐II spicules are miniature counterparts of coronal X‐ray jets. In Moore et al (2011, ApJ, 731, L18), we pointed out that if Type‐II spicules are magnetic eruptions that work like coronal X‐ray jets, they carry an area‐averaged mechanical energy flux of approximately 7x10)(exp 5) erg cm(exp -2) s(exp-1) into the corona in the form of MHD waves and jet outflow, enough to power the heating of the global corona and solar wind. On this basis, from our observations of mini‐filament eruptions in blowout X‐ray jets, we infer that magnetic explosions of the type that have erupting filaments in them are the main engines of both (1) the steady solar wind and (2) the CMEs that produce the most severe space weather by blasting out through the corona and solar wind, making solar energetic particle storms, and bashing the Earth's magnetosphere. We conclude that in focusing on prominences and filament eruptions, Einar had his eye on the main bet for understanding what powers all space weather, both the extreme and the normal.

Moore, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS2013

Microchemical and Structural Evidence for Space Weathering in Soils from Asteroid Itokawa

The chemistry, microstructure and optical properties of grains on the surfaces of airless bodies are continu-ously modified due to their interactions predominantly with solar energetic ions and micrometeorite impacts. Collectively known as space weathering, this phenomenon results in a discrepancy between remotely sensed spectra from asteroids and those ac-quired directly from meteorites. The return of pristine samples from the asteroid Itokawa provides insight into surface processes on airless bodies and will help in correlating remote sensing data with laboratory analysis of meteorites. Samples and Methods: We examined Itokawa samples RA-QD02-0042-01 and RA-QD-02-0042-02, ultramicrotomed sec-tions of a singular grain prepared by the Hayabusa sample cura-tion team. We analyzed these slices using a 200 keV JEOL 2010F transmission electron microscope (TEM) at Arizona State Uni-versity and a 200 keV JEOL 2500SE TEM at NASA JSC. Both field emission TEMs are equipped with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometers (EDS) and scanning TEM (STEM) detectors. Results and Discussion: TEM observations reveal that the sectioned grain predominantly consists of a single crystal of low-Ca orthopyroxene, with subsidiary smaller regions of olivine, Fe-Ni sulfide, and Fe-Ni metal. EDS-spectrum imaging and high-resolution TEM (HRTEM) show local, nanocrystalline regions of the outermost 2 to 5 nm of the pyroxene are composed of an Fe-Mg-S-rich and Si- and O-depleted layer that is underlain by a 2- to 5-nm thick amorphous zone enriched in Si. These layers occur in multiple microtome slices and have uniform thicknesses. We also observe localized 'islands' of material on the surface of the pyroxene which HRTEM imaging indicates are amorphous and EDS measurements show are compositionally heterogeneous. A 10- to 60-nm thick partially amorphous zone occurs below the compositionally distinct rim. While this this zone is associated with the compositionally heterogeneous outer layer, it also occurs as a local stand-alone feature on the exterior rim of the grain. Ar-eas of the pyroxene grain rim also exhibit a vesicular texture. The TEM data indicate a complex history of space weather-ing for samples RA-QD02-0042-01 and -02. The outermost layer of nanocrystalline material with varied composition is consistent with previously suggested [3-4] chemical and structural pro-cessing by solar wind ions, with a possible additional role for im-pact vapor deposition [3-4]. The amorphous and compositionally distinct islands on the surface of this grain, similar to lunar glasses, suggest formation through vapor deposition via micrometeor-ite impact events. In comparison, the amorphization and vesicula-tion textures are likely a product of radiation damage from the solar wind. The depth and degree of amorphization, in conjunction with model calculations, will help provide an upper limit on exposure time for these particles.

Thompson, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Falconer, David↗