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Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Integrating solvation shell structure in experimentally driven molecular dynamics using x-ray solution scattering data

In the past few decades, prediction of macromolecular structures beyond the native conformation has been aided by the development of molecular dynamics (MD) protocols aimed at exploration of the energetic landscape of proteins. Yet, the computed structures do not always agree with experimental observables, calling for further development of the MD strategies to bring the computations and experiments closer together. Here, we report a scalable, efficient MD simulation approach that incorporates an x-ray solution scattering signal as a driving force for the conformational search of stable structural configurations outside of the native basin. We further demonstrate the importance of inclusion of the hydration layer effect for a precise description of the processes involving large changes in the solvent exposed area, such as unfolding. Utilization of the graphics processing unit allows for an efficient all-atom calculation of scattering patterns on-the-fly, even for large biomolecules, resulting in a speed-up of the calculation of the associated driving force. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated on two model protein systems, the structural transition of lysine-, arginine-, ornithine-binding protein and the folding of deca-alanine. We discuss how the present approach will aid in the interpretation of dynamical scattering experiments on protein folding and association.

Hsu, Darren J.↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - WBS 4.1.2.32: Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess current and/or prospective techno-economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions and their impact on the potential development trajectories of the bioenergy industry over time. Results from this project include identification of opportunities and constraints to industrial development, quantification of multiple metrics (energy, economic, environmental) and informing researchers, decision makers, and industry of the steps needed for a sustainable, nationwide biofuels industry. Analyses from this project enable the creation of a bioenergy industry by (1) inciting policy-makers to explore scenarios for nationwide biofuels production, identifying policy actions consistent with pathways for growth; (2) improving industry’s understanding of industry growth potential under different technology and investment conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, connecting students with careers that build the industry. One of the many modeling tools used in this project, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. We use models like the BSM to examine the implications of policies and incentives as well as their potential side-effects. The BSM uses a system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions and transitions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given industrial learning and the reaction of the investment community in the context of land availability, projected oil markets, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. Under expected market conditions, analyses using the BSM suggest that the biofuels industry may require significant external actions in the early years to thrive. Interventions that accelerate the industrial learning process (e.g. operation of pre-commercial and commercial facilities) have been identified as having strong influence in starting the growth of a commercial biofuel industry. Policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain in BSM foster the growth of the biofuels industry and production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

An Algorithm for the Fitting of Planet Models to Kepler Light Curves

We describe an algorithm which fits model planetary system parameters to light curves from Kepler Mission target stars. The algorithm begins by producing an initial model of the system which is used to seed the fit,with particular emphasis on obtaining good transit timing parameters. An attempt is then made to determine whether the observed transits are more likely due to a planet or an eclipsing binary. In the event that the transits are consistent with a transiting planet, an iterative fitting process is initiated: a wavelet-based whitening filter is used to eliminate stellar variations on timescales long compared to a transit; a robust nonlinear fitter operating on the whitened light curve produces a new model of the system; and the procedure iterates until convergence upon a self-consistent whitening filter and planet model. The fitted transits are removed from the light curve anda search for additional planet candidates is performed upon the residual light curve. The fitted models are used in additional tests which identify false positive planet detections: multiple planet candidates with near-identical fitted periods are far more likely to be an eclipsing binary, for example, while target stars in which the model lightcurve is correlated with the star centroid position may indicate a background eclipsing binary, and subtraction of all model planet candidates yields a light curve of pure noise and stellar variability, which can be used to study the probability that the planet candidates result from statistical fluctuations in the data.

Exoplanet↗

The mid-quarternary climatic transition as the free response of a three-variable dynamical model

A simplified version of a previously described dynamical model governing global ice mass, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and mean ocean temperature is shown to possess solutions, in a realistic parameter range, that can replicate the main features of the climatic variations implied by the full, two million years, Quaternary delta-O-18 record. These variations include a major 'transition' between a low-ice delta-O-18, low variance mode before roughly 900 kyr BP to a high-ice, high (near 100 kyr period) variance mode after that time to the present. The model contains only three free parameters in this simplified form. No external earth-orbital forcing is prescribed; i.e., the model represents only internal dynamics. From the previous studies it seems clear that additional variance representing such features as the 'rapid' deglaciation and the phase of the major Quaternary oscillation can be largely explained with no more than four additional parameters representing an internal asymmetry and the external perodic forcing. The present results, therefore, constitute a first-order account for the existence of the 'ice age' fluctuations over the last two million years, including the concomitant variations of atmospheric CO2.

Saltzman, Barry↗

Quantification of High‐Temperature Transition Al 2 O 3 and Their Phase Transformations**

Abstract High‐temperature treatment of γ‐Al 2 O 3 can lead to a series of polymorphic transformations, including the formation of δ‐Al 2 O 3 and θ‐Al 2 O 3 . Quantification of the microstructure in the range where δ‐ and θ‐Al 2 O 3 are formed represents a formidable challenge, as both phases accommodate a high degree of structural disorder. In this work, we explore the use of an XRD recursive‐stacking formalism for the quantification of high‐temperature transition aluminas. We formulate the recursive‐stacking methodology for modelling of disorder in δ‐Al 2 O 3 and twinning in θ‐Al 2 O 3 and show that explicitly accounting for the disorder is necessary to reliably model the XRD patterns of high‐temperature transition alumina. We also use the recursive stacking approach to study phase transformation during high‐temperature (1050 °C) treatment. We show that the two different intergrowth modes of δ‐Al 2 O 3 have different transformation characteristics and that a significant portion of δ‐Al 2 O 3 is stabilized with θ‐Al 2 O 3 even after prolonged high‐temperature exposures.

Kovarik, Libor↗

Debunking common myths in coastal circulation modeling

Despite tremendous progress in algorithm development, computational efficiency and transition into operations over the past two decades, coastal modeling still lacks scientific rigor due to proliferation of many ‘gray’ areas related to various modeling choices made by modelers. Here, in this paper, we propose some guiding principles for the modeling community to improve performance, and we also debunk commonly held myths that make the coastal modeling lack rigor. Using our own experience in developing seamless cross-scale unstructured-grid based models for the past two decades, we describe in unprecedented detail the end-to-end modeling process (i.e., from digital elevation models (DEMs) to mesh generation to post analysis), and demonstrate that defensible modeling is within reach for any end user by following three guiding principles: (1) Bathymetry is a first order forcing in coastal domains and thus should be respected in all aspects of modeling; (2) Oceanographic processes are driven across multiple spatial scales and so models should enable appropriate resolution as needed; and (3) Model assessment should focus on physical processes. Through qualitative and quantitative model assessments, we demonstrate the fundamental role played by bathymetry/topography as embedded in DEMs in making the results defensible, which is unfortunately glossed over in many modeling studies. Focusing on process-based assessment simplifies the calibration process. A major conclusion of this work is that model developers and operators should maximize the scientific rigor for in silico oceanography by avoiding some common pitfalls that rely on error compensation at the expense of representation of physical system processes. We present some best practice procedures for defensive and trustworthy numerical modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ribbon Wrinkling Origin and Its Effect on Tape-Wound Core Shape

Improved understanding of advanced manufacturing techniques is needed to fabricate next- generation soft magnetic tape-wound cores. These utilize metal amorphous nano-composites (MANCs) in the form of long thin ribbons. MANCs exhibit attractive soft magnetic properties for use in high frequency and high power density magnetic components. Of particular interest here, the permeability and hysteresis of MANC ribbons can be tuned in a strain annealing process. An unexpected consequence is that wider ribbons develop longitudinal wrinkle patterns. This can substantially reduce the tape-wound core stacking factor. However, when winding a wrinkled ribbon into a toroidal core, the wrinkles can completely flatten, or crinkle. By this phenomenon, the stacking factor can be recovered. To understand the crinkling effect we have developed analytical and finite element analysis (FEA) models. Experiments with known boundary conditions demonstrate the transition from wrinkled to crinkled versus winding curvature. The models utilize an elastic modulus measured via ribbon tensile testing and a ribbon thickness value measurement made by profilometry. The analytical model provides insight into the crinkling effect but cannot explain the length of the transition region from wrinkling to crinkling. With FEA, we successfully predict the transition region and depending on wrinkling amplitude can determine when a ribbon will wind into a useable core. Such mechanics-based insight provides critical feedback for allowable processing parameters in the strain annealing process.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Microgravity Two-Phase Flow Transition

Two-phase flows under microgravity condition find a large number of important applications in fluid handling and storage, and spacecraft thermal management. Specifically, under microgravity condition heat transfer between heat exchanger surfaces and fluids depend critically on the distribution and interaction between different fluid phases which are often qualitatively different from the gravity-based systems. Heat transfer and flow analysis in two-phase flows under these conditions require a clear understanding of the flow pattern transition and development of appropriate dimensionless scales for its modeling and prediction. The physics of this flow is however very complex and remains poorly understood. This has led to various inadequacies in flow and heat transfer modeling and has made prediction of flow transition difficult in engineering design of efficient thermal and flow systems. In the present study the available published data for flow transition under microgravity condition are considered for mapping. The transition from slug to annular flow and from bubbly to slug flow are mapped using dimensionless variable combination developed in a previous study by the authors. The result indicate that the new maps describe the flow transitions reasonably well over the range of the data available. The transition maps are examined and the results are discussed in relation to the presumed balance of forces and flow dynamics. It is suggested that further evaluation of the proposed flow and transition mapping will require a wider range of microgravity data expected to be made available in future studies.

Parang, M.↗

Validation of a CFD Methodology for Variable Speed Power Turbine Relevant Conditions

Analysis tools are needed to investigate aerodynamic performance of Variable-Speed Power Turbines (VSPT) for rotorcraft applications. The VSPT operates at low Reynolds numbers (transitional flow) and over a wide range of incidence. Previously, the capability of a published three-equation turbulence model to predict accurately the transition location for three-dimensional heat transfer problems was assessed. In this paper, the results of a post-diction exercise using a three-dimensional flow in a transonic linear cascade comprising VSPT blading are presented. The measured blade pressure distributions and exit total pressure and flow angles for two incidence angles corresponding to cruise (i = 5.8deg) and takeoff (i = -36.7deg) were used for this study. For the higher loading condition of cruise and the negative incidence condition of takeoff, overall agreement with data may be considered satisfactory but areas of needed improvement are also indicated.

Ameri, Ali A.↗

Coupling-dependent antiferromagnetic-ferromagnetic ordering in a pinwheel artificial spin ice

Nanopatterned magnetic thin films offer a platform for exploration of tailored magnetic properties such as emergent long-range order. A prominent example is artificial spin ice (ASI), where an arrangement of nanoscale magnetic elements, acting as macrospins, interact via their dipolar fields. In this study, we discuss the transition from antiferromagnetic (AFM) to ferromagnetic (FM) long-range order in a square lattice ASI as the magnetic elements are gradually rotated through 45⁢° to a “pinwheel” configuration. The AFM-FM transition is observed experimentally using synchrotron radiation x-ray spectromicroscopy and occurs for a certain rotation angle of the nanomagnets, dependent on the dipolar coupling strength determined by the separation of the magnets in the lattice. Large-scale magnetic dipole simulations show that the point-dipole approximation fails to capture the correct AFM-FM transition angle. However, excellent agreement with experimental data is obtained using a dumbbell-dipole model, which better reflects the actual dipolar fields of the magnets. This model also explains the coupling dependence of the transition angle, another feature not captured by the point-dipole model. Our findings resolve a discrepancy between measurement and theory in previous work on “pinwheel” ASIs and establish the coupling dependence of the AFM-FM transition. The revised dipole model, with a more accurate representation of the stray field, offers more precise control of magnetic order in artificial spin systems.

Artificial spin ice↗

Boundary-Layer Transition on a Group of Blunt Nose Shapes at a Mach Number of 2.20

An investigation has been made to study boundary-layer transition on six axisymmetrical blunt bodies of revolution. Model shapes were selected with respect to the degree of favorable pressure gradient over the model surface. Tests were conducted at a Mach number of 2.20 and over a range of free-stream Reynolds number per foot of about 1.4 x 10(exp 6) to 6.5 x 10(exp 6). The tests were made at an angle of attack of 0 deg. with zero heat transfer. For the hemisphere, the flow remained essentially laminar over the model surface length for the entire pressure range of the tests. For a strong favorable pressure gradient followed by any weak favorable, neutral, or adverse gradient, the tendency was for transition to occur at or immediately behind the shoulder. A single strip of three-dimensional roughness in the region of strong favorable pressure gradient did not fix transition on the models at the roughness location except at the maximum test pressures, whereas a second roughness strip added in a region of neutral or adverse pressure gradient did fix transition. Experimental pressure coefficients agreed closely with modified Newtonian theory except in the shoulder region.

Jackson, Mary W.↗

Replica wormholes and the black hole interior

Recent work has shown how to obtain the Page curve of an evaporating black hole from holographic computations of entanglement entropy. We show how these computations can be justified using the replica trick, from geometries with a spacetime wormhole connecting the different replicas. In a simple model, we study the Page transition in detail by summing replica geometries with different topologies. We compute related quantities in less detail in more complicated models, including JT gravity coupled to conformal matter and the SYK model. Separately, we give a direct gravitational argument for entanglement wedge reconstruction using an explicit formula known as the Petz map; again, a spacetime wormhole plays an important role. We discuss an interpretation of the wormhole geometries as part of some ensemble average implicit in the gravity description.

2D gravity↗

Comparison Between the f-Electron and Conduction-Electron Density of States in the Falicov-Kimball Model at Low Temperature

The spinless Falicov-Kimball model is one of the simplest models of many-body physics. While the conduction-electron density of states is temperature independent in the normal state, the f -electron density of states is strongly temperature dependent—it has an orthogonality catastrophe singularity in the metallic phase and is gapped in the insulating phase. The question we address here is whether the spectral gap is the same for both electron species as T → 0. Finally, we find strong evidence to indicate that the answer is affirmative.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Calculating elements of matrix functions using divided differences

In this work, we introduce a method for calculating individual elements of matrix functions. Our technique makes use of a novel series expansion for the action of matrix functions on basis vectors that is memory efficient even for very large matrices. We showcase our approach by calculating the matrix elements of the exponential of a transverse-field Ising model and evaluating quantum transition amplitudes for large many-body Hamiltonians of sizes up to 2 64 x 2 64 on a single workstation. We also discuss the application of the method to matrix inverses. We relate and compare our method to the state-of-the-art and demonstrate its advantages. We also discuss practical applications of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of synergies in converting underground storage sites: Natural gas to hydrogen with co-located CO2 storage

This study examines the untapped potential of synergistically converting underground natural gas storage (UGS) into underground hydrogen storage (UHS) with co-located CO2 storage. Current approaches to subsurface storage technology (SST) development often prioritise single-use scenarios, overlooking the benefits of integrating multiple technologies. We investigate converting UGS assets into UHS through gradual cushion-gas injection over multiple years, rather than injecting all cushion gas in the first year, and include on-site CO2 storage to offset site emissions. Mechanistic modelling shows this gradual transition reduces the Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) of H2 by 1.2-13.1% while retaining energy output within 3% of the current status quo. We also show that combined UHS and CO2 storage hubs can reduce the LCOS of CO2 by 45-77% for only a 3-10% increase in hydrogen LCOS relative to the status quo. This analysis framework may help future-proof SST sites and support a resilient, economically beneficial energy transition.

Mouli-Castillo, Julien↗

An anisotropic damage model based on dislocation-mediated nucleation of cracks under high-rate compression

In this report, we developed a thermodynamically-consistent, rate-dependent micromechanics model for brittle damage nucleated by dislocation plasticity applicable for large deformations. Dislocation substructure evolution was used to inform a nucleation criterion for a microcrack. Under global compression, the sliding of a microcrack induces formation of wing cracks. Effective stress drives dynamic growth of these cracks under a 3D stress state, resulting in an anisotropic material stiffness. The model was also advanced to predict grain size dependence of a polycrystalline solid. Internal variables were constrained based on the laws of thermodynamics. Material constants were calibrated for polycrystalline beryllium to demonstrate the applicability of the model to simulate dynamic failure under compression. We demonstrate the versatility of the model to capture brittle to ductile transition governed by temperature and strain rate. The predictive capability of the model to simulate failure stress and failure strain is compared with dynamic and quasistatic data on beryllium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗