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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Helmet-Mounted Display Technology for Eva Training in NASA's Neutral Buoyancy Lab

Currently, during extravehicular activity (EVA) on the International Space Station (ISS), astronauts are in constant communication with mission control; however, this paradigm will significantly change during future NASA exploration missions due to limited and time-delayed communications. As exploration missions will thereby require an increase in crew autonomy, it is hypothesized that heads-up display (HUD) technology can supplement communications with mission control. Before introducing novel display technology to EVA operations, it must first be demonstrated and evaluated in an EVA training environment. The UC Davis Center for Spaceflight Research, in collaboration with NASA Johnson Space Center’s Human Physiology, Performance, Protection, and Operations (H-3PO) Lab has developed a low-cost and rapid development helmet-mounted display (HMD) for EVA training at NASA’s Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL). The first two phases of HMD testing (Phase I and II) at the NBL focused on technology and capability development and demonstration. Crew member feedback was obtained that evaluated aspects of HMD including its user satisfaction, visibility, readability, and usefulness. Overall, feedback indicated HMD was readable, un-obtrusive, and the available display modes had potential to be useful and enhance EVA training. HMD display modes currently available include: real-time biofeedback (metabolic rate), phase elapsed time (PET), ability to set timers, task procedural aids (e.g. Pistol Grip Tool settings) and custom messages. The goal for Phase III, which is currently underway, is to evaluate the effects that access to bioinformatics through HMD has on astronaut training and performance at the NBL. For this phase of testing, crewmembers will be asked to perform a go/no-go task while wearing HMD throughout the NBL run to characterize crew member state of situational awareness with respect to HMD. This information could be used to inform how best to display relatively important or supplemental, but not critical, data in the future.

Heads up display↗
NASA NTRS1995

Optical fiber sensors for damage analysis in aerospace materials

Under this grant, fiber optic sensors were investigated for use in the nondestructive evaluation of aging aircraft. Specifically, optical fiber sensors for detection and location of impacts on a surface, and for detection of corrosion in metals were developed. The use of neural networks was investigated for determining impact location by processing the output of a network of fiberoptic strain sensors distributed on a surface. This approach employs triangulation to determine location by comparing the arrival times at several sensors, of the acoustic signal generated by the impact. For this study, a neural network simulator running on a personal computer was used to train a network using a back-propagation algorithm. Fiber optic extrinsic Fabry-Perot interferometer (EFPI) strain sensors are attached to or embedded in the surface, so that stress waves emanating from an impact can be detected. The ability of the network to determine impact location by time-or-arrival of acoustic signals was assessed by comparing network outputs with actual experimental results using impacts on a panel instrumented with optical fiber sensors. Using the neural network to process the sensor outputs, the impact location can be inferred to centimeter range accuracy directly from the arrival time data. In addition, the network can be trained to determine impact location, regardless of material anisotropy. Results demonstrate that a back-propagation network identifies impact location for an anisotropic graphite/bismaleimide plate with the same accuracy as that for an isotropic aluminum plate. Two different approaches were investigated for the development of fiber optic sensors for corrosion detection in metals, both utilizing optical fiber sensors with metal coatings. In the first approach, an extrinsic Fabry-Perot interferometric fiber optic strain sensor was placed under tensile stress, and while in the resulting strained position, a thick coating of metal was applied. Due to an increase in the quantity of material, the sensor does not return to its original position upon removal of the applied stress, and some residual strain is maintained within the sensor element. As the metal thickness decreases due to corrosion, this strain is released, providing the sensing mechanism for corrosion detection. In the second approach, photosensitive optical fibers with long period Bragg gratings in the core were coated with metal. The Bragg gratings serve to couple core modes at discrete wavelengths to cladding modes. Since cladding modes interact with the metal coating surrounding the fiber cladding, the specific wavelengths coupled from core to cladding depend on the refractive index of the metal coating. Therefore, as the metal corrodes, the resulting change in index of the coating may be measured by measuring the change in wavelength of the coupled mode. Results demonstrate that both approaches can be successfully used to track the loss in metal coating on the optical fiber sensors due to corrosion.

Schindler, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quasi-periodic Fast-mode Wave Trains Within a Global EUV Wave and Sequential Transverse Oscillations Detected by SDO-AIA

We present the first unambiguous detection of quasi-periodic wave trains within the broad pulse of a global EUV wave (so-called EIT wave) occurring on the limb. These wave trains, running ahead of the lateral coronal mass ejection (CME) front of 2-4 times slower, coherently travel to distances greater than approximately solar radius/2 along the solar surface, with initial velocities up to 1400 kilometers per second decelerating to approximately 650 kilometers per second. The rapid expansion of the CME initiated at an elevated height of 110 Mm produces a strong downward and lateral compression, which may play an important role in driving the primary EUV wave and shaping its front forwardly inclined toward the solar surface. The wave trains have a dominant 2 minute periodicity that matches the X-ray flare pulsations, suggesting a causal connection. The arrival of the leading EUV wave front at increasing distances produces an uninterrupted chain sequence of deflections and/or transverse (likely fast kink mode) oscillations of local structures, including a flux-rope coronal cavity and its embedded filament with delayed onsets consistent with the wave travel time at an elevated (by approximately 50%) velocity within it. This suggests that the EUV wave penetrates through a topological separatrix surface into the cavity, unexpected from CME-caused magnetic reconfiguration. These observations, when taken together, provide compelling evidence of the fast-mode MHD wave nature of the primary (outer) fast component of a global EUV wave, running ahead of the secondary (inner) slow component of CME-caused restructuring.

Solar Corona↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Brandon L. Hearley↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven discovery of dynamics from time-resolved coherent scattering

Coherent X-ray scattering (CXS) techniques are capable of interrogating dynamics of nano- to mesoscale materials systems at time scales spanning several orders of magnitude. However, obtaining accurate theoretical descriptions of complex dynamics is often limited by one or more factors—the ability to visualize dynamics in real space, computational cost of high-fidelity simulations, and effectiveness of approximate or phenomenological models. In this work, we develop a data-driven framework to uncover mechanistic models of dynamics directly from time-resolved CXS measurements without solving the phase reconstruction problem for the entire time series of diffraction patterns. Our approach uses neural differential equations to parameterize unknown real-space dynamics and implements a computational scattering forward model to relate real-space predictions to reciprocal-space observations. This method is shown to recover the dynamics of several computational model systems under various simulated conditions of measurement resolution and noise. Moreover, the trained model enables estimation of long-term dynamics well beyond the maximum observation time, which can be used to inform and refine experimental parameters in practice. Finally, we demonstrate an experimental proof-of-concept by applying our framework to recover the probe trajectory from a ptychographic scan. Our proposed framework bridges the wide existing gap between approximate models and complex data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trajectory Optimization via Unsupervised Probabilistic Learning On Manifolds

This report investigates the use of unsupervised probabilistic learning techniques for the analysis of hypersonic trajectories. The algorithm first extracts the intrinsic structure in the data via a diffusion map approach. Using the diffusion coordinates on the graph of training samples, the probabilistic framework augments the original data with samples that are statistically consistent with the original set. The augmented samples are then used to construct conditional statistics that are ultimately assembled in a path-planing algorithm. In this framework the controls are determined stage by stage during the flight to adapt to changing mission objectives in real-time. A 3DOF model was employed to generate optimal hypersonic trajectories that comprise the training datasets. The diffusion map algorithm identfied that data resides on manifolds of much lower dimensionality compared to the high-dimensional state space that describes each trajectory. In addition to the path-planing worflow we also propose an algorithm that utilizes the diffusion map coordinates along the manifold to label and possibly remove outlier samples from the training data. This algorithm can be used to both identify edge cases for further analysis as well as to remove them from the training set to create a more robust set of samples to be used for the path-planing process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Why Games Work and the Science of Learning

In 2010, the Navy formally added the Damage Control Trainer (DCT) to the recruit training program at Great Lakes, Illinois. Despite the incredibly dense training schedule at the Navy's boot camp, the instructors were willing to set aside two hours of time for recruits to play a game. Why? Because it worked. Even with just one hour of play, research showed that recruits gained a 50-80% improvement in performance that transferred to Battle Stations 21 (B821), the Navy's capstone training event. This paper explores why games makes these kinds of results possible. It argues that the things that are known to improve learning are almost exactly the same reasons why games work: the time-honored laws of learning. It concludes that the traditional gulf between instructional design and game design is really an issue of perspective, rather than fundamentals.

Murphy, Curtiss↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanosecond anomaly detection with decision trees and real-time application to exotic Higgs decays

Abstract We present an interpretable implementation of the autoencoding algorithm, used as an anomaly detector, built with a forest of deep decision trees on FPGA, field programmable gate arrays. Scenarios at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN are considered, for which the autoencoder is trained using known physical processes of the Standard Model. The design is then deployed in real-time trigger systems for anomaly detection of unknown physical processes, such as the detection of rare exotic decays of the Higgs boson. The inference is made with a latency value of 30 ns at percent-level resource usage using the Xilinx Virtex UltraScale+ VU9P FPGA. Our method offers anomaly detection at low latency values for edge AI users with resource constraints.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the 4D discharge of lithium-ion batteries with a multiscale time-dependent deep learning framework

The lithium-ion battery (LIB) field is moving towards the direction of investigating spatially resolved physical phenomena in the 3D porous microstructure of electrodes. These pore-scale simulations give new insights into the local dynamics of lithiation/de-lithiation and charge transport, Nevertheless, the computational time of these simulations limits the integration of these models in optimization workflows of cycling conditions or electrode manufacturing processes. Machine learning models present a way of assessing in real-time the performance of materials. While several successful techniques for replicating simulations with machine learning have been proposed, this case study presents a more demanding problem, due to the necessity of understanding the behavior of heterogeneous 3D local data, as it evolves in time: this poses both a scientific and a technical challenge. To this end, we propose an autoregressive multiscale convolutional neural network model to predict relevant quantities at the pore-scale in the solid phase: the lithium concentration (in the active material) and potential (in the active material and carbon binder). Here, these are ultimately used to reconstruct the battery discharge curve. 3D images of the electrode microstructures are the input to the network, trained with a dataset of finite element method simulations to predict the discharge behavior of the cathode side in lithium ion batteries. We propose this machine learning model as a proof-of-concept of the applicability of multiscale networks for time-dependent physics problems. The trained model exhibits very high accuracy (with errors lower than 2 %) in forecasting the discharge behavior of new unseen cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Failure↗
NASA NTRS2015

High Performance EVA Glove Collaboration: Glove Injury Data Mining Effort

Human hands play a significant role during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) missions and Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL) training events, as they are needed for translating and performing tasks in the weightless environment. Because of this high frequency usage, hand and arm related injuries are known to occur during EVA and EVA training in the NBL. The primary objectives of this investigation were to: 1) document all known EVA glove related injuries and circumstances of these incidents, 2) determine likely risk factors, and 3) recommend interventions where possible that could be implemented in the current and future glove designs. METHODS: The investigation focused on the discomforts and injuries of U.S. crewmembers who had worn the pressurized Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit and experienced 4000 Series or Phase VI glove related incidents during 1981 to 2010 for either EVA ground training or in-orbit flight. We conducted an observational retrospective case-control investigation using 1) a literature review of known injuries, 2) data mining of crew injury, glove sizing, and hand anthropometry databases, 3) descriptive statistical analyses, and finally 4) statistical risk correlation and predictor analyses to better understand injury prevalence and potential causation. Specific predictor statistical analyses included use of principal component analyses (PCA), multiple logistic regression, and survival analyses (Cox proportional hazards regression). Results of these analyses were computed risk variables in the forms of odds ratios (likelihood of an injury occurring given the magnitude of a risk variable) and hazard ratios (likelihood of time to injury occurrence). Due to the exploratory nature of this investigation, we selected predictor variables significant at p≤0.15. RESULTS: Through 2010, there have been a total of 330 NASA crewmembers, from which 96 crewmembers performed 322 EVAs during 1981-2010, resulting in 50 crewmembers being injured inflight and 44 injured during 11,704 ground EVA training events. Of the 196 glove related injury incidents, 106 related to EVA and 90 to EVA training. Over these 196 incidents, 277 total injuries (126 flight; 151 training) were reported and were then grouped into 23 types of injuries. Of EVA flight injuries, 65% were commonly reported to the hand (in general), metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joint, and finger (not including thumb) with fatigue, abrasion, and paresthesia being the most common injury types (44% of total flight injuries). Training injuries totaled to more than 70% being distributed to the fingernail, MCP joint, and finger crotch with 88% of the specific injuries listed as pain, erythema, and onycholysis. Of these training injuries, when reporting pain or erythema, the most common location was the index finger, but when reporting onycholysis, it was the middle finger. Predictor variables specific to increased risk of onycholysis included: female sex (OR=2.622), older age (OR=1.065), increased duration in hours of the flight or training event (OR=1.570), middle finger length differences in inches between the finger and the EVA glove (OR=7.709), and use of the Phase VI glove (OR=8.535). Differentiation between training and flight and injury reporting during 2002-2004 were significant control variables. For likelihood of time to first onycholysis injury, there was a 24% reduction in rate of reporting for each year increase in age. Also, more experienced crewmembers, based on number of EVA flight or training events completed, were less likely to report an onycholysis injury (3% less for every event). Longer duration events also found reporting rates to occur 2.37 times faster for every hour of length. Crewmembers with larger hand size reported onycholysis 23% faster than those with smaller hand size. Finally, for every 1/10th of an inch increase in difference between the middle finger length and the glove, the rate of reporting increased by 60%. DISCUSSION: One key finding was that the Series 4000 glove had a lower injury risk than the Phase VI, which provides a platform for further evaluation. General interventions that reduce hand overexertion and repetitive use exposure through tool development, procedural changes and shorter exposures may be one mitigation path, but due to the way the training event times were reported, we cannot provide a guideline for a specific event duration change. When the finger length was different from the glove length, the risk of injury increased indicating that the use of larger finger take-ups could be contributing to injury and therefore may not be recommended. Prior to this investigation, there was one previous investigation indicating hand anthropometry may be related to onycholysis. We found different hand anthropometry variables indicated by this investigation as compared to the prior, specifically differences in middle finger length compared to glove finger length, which point more towards a sizing issue than a specific anthropometry issue. Additionally, although this investigation has identified sizing as an issue, the force and environmental-related variables of the EVA glove that could also cause injury were not accounted for.

Reid, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Performance characteristics and statistics of a laser initiated microdetonator

The test results of 320 units of the laser initiated microdetonator are summarized. The commercially fabricated units used a lead styphnate/lead azide/HMX (1 mg/17.5 mg/13.5 mg) explosive train design contained in a miniature aluminum can and completed with a glass-metal seal window. The test parameters were the high and low laser energy, high and low temperature, laser pulse duration, laser wavelength and nuclear radiation (5 x 10 to the 6th rads of 1 MeV gamma ray). The performance parameters were the laser energy for ignition and the actuation response time. Included also is a description of the development of a flexible, continuously advanced train of explosive devices by using the units, miniature optics and fiber optics.

Yang, L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A data-centric weak supervised learning for highway traffic incident detection

Using the data from loop detector sensors for near-real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways is crucial to averting major traffic congestion. While recent supervised machine learning methods offer solutions to incident detection by leveraging human-labeled incident data, the false alarm rate is often too high to be used in practice. Specifically, the inconsistency in the human labeling of the incidents significantly affects the performance of supervised learning models. To that end, we focus on a data-centric approach to improve the accuracy and reduce the false alarm rate of traffic incident detection on highways. We develop a weak supervised learning workflow to generate high-quality training labels for the incident data without the ground truth labels, and we use those generated labels in the supervised learning setup for final detection. This approach comprises three stages. First, we introduce a data preprocessing and curation pipeline that processes traffic sensor data to generate high-quality training data through leveraging labeling functions, which can be domain knowledge-related or simple heuristic rules. Second, we evaluate the training data generated by weak supervision using three supervised learning models-random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and a support vector machine ensemble-and long short-term memory classifiers. The results show that the accuracy of all of the models improves significantly after using the training data generated by weak supervision. Third, we develop an online real-time incident detection approach that leverages the model ensemble and the uncertainty quantification while detecting incidents. Finally, we show that our proposed weak supervised learning workflow achieves a high incident detection rate (0.90) and low false alarm rate (0.08).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated deep learning framework for unstable event identification and disruption prediction of tokamak plasmas

Abstract The ability to identify underlying disruption precursors is key to disruption avoidance. In this paper, we present an integrated deep learning (DL) based model that combines disruption prediction with the identification of several disruption precursors like rotating modes, locked modes, H-to-L back transitions and radiative collapses. The first part of our study demonstrates that the DL-based unstable event identifier trained on 160 manually labeled DIII-D shots can achieve, on average, 84% event identification rate of various frequent unstable events (like H-L back transition, locked mode, radiative collapse, rotating MHD mode, large sawtooth crash), and the trained identifier can be adapted to label unseen discharges, thus expanding the original manually labeled database. Based on these results, the integrated DL-based framework is developed using a combined database of manually labeled and automatically labeled DIII-D data, and it shows state-of-the-art (AUC = 0.940) disruption prediction and event identification abilities on DIII-D. Through cross-machine numerical disruption prediction studies using this new integrated model and leveraging the C-Mod, DIII-D, and EAST disruption warning databases, we demonstrate the improved cross-machine disruption prediction ability and extended warning time of the new model compared with a baseline predictor. In addition, the trained integrated model shows qualitatively good cross-machine event identification ability. Given a labeled dataset, the strategy presented in this paper, i.e. one that combines a disruption predictor with an event identifier module, can be applied to upgrade any neural network based disruption predictor. The results presented here inform possible development strategies of machine learning based disruption avoidance algorithms for future tokamaks and highlight the importance of building comprehensive databases with unstable event information on current machines.

plasma instabilities↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of First-Principles-Based Artificial Neural Network Potentials to Multiscale-Shock Dynamics Simulations on Solid Materials

The use of artificial neural network (ANN) potentials trained with first-principles calculations has emerged as a promising approach for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations encompassing large space and time scales while retaining first-principles accuracy. To date, however, the application of ANN-MD has been limited to near-equilibrium processes. Here we combine first-principles-trained ANN-MD with multiscale shock theory (MSST) to successfully describe far-from-equilibrium shock phenomena. Overall, our ANN-MSST-MD approach describes shock-wave propagation in solids with first-principles accuracy but a 5000 times shorter computing time. Accordingly, ANN-MD-MSST was able to resolve fine, long-time elastic deformation at low shock speed, which was impossible with first-principles MD because of the high computational cost. This work thus lays a foundation of ANN-MD simulation to study a wide range of far-from-equilibrium processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2009

Small Earth Observing Satellites Flying with Large Satellites in the A-Train

This paper/poster presents a real-life example of the benefits of flying small satellites with other satellites, large or small, and vice versa. Typically, most small satellites fly payloads consisting of one or two instruments and fly in orbits that are independent from that of other satellites. The science data from these satellites are either used in isolation or correlated with instrument data from other satellites. Data correlation with other satellites is greatly improved when the measurements of the same point or air mass are taken at approximately the same time. Scientists worldwide are beginning to take advantage of the opportunities for improved data correlation, or coincidental science, offered by the international Earth Observing Constellation known as the A-Train (sometimes referred to as the Afternoon Constellation). Most of the A-Train satellites are small - the A-Train is anchored by two large NASA satellites (EOS-Aqua and EOS-Aura), but consists also of 5 small satellites (CloudSat, CALIPSO, PARASOL, OCO and Glory these last two will join in 2009). By flying in a constellation, each mission benefits from coincidental observations from instruments on the other satellites in the constellation. Essentially, from a data point of view, the A-Train can be envisioned as a single, virtual science platform with multiple instruments. Satellites in the A-Train fly at 705 km in sun-synchronous orbits. Their mean local times at the equator are within seconds to a few minutes of each other. This paper describes the challenges of operating an international constellation of independent satellites from the U.S. and Europe to maximize the coincidental science opportunities while at the same time minimizing the level of operational interactions required between team members. The A-Train mission teams have been able to demonstrate that flying as members of an international constellation does not take away the flexibility to accommodate new requirements. Specific examples will be cited, including CloudSat's relocation (to accommodate a new viewing angle for the CALIPSO satellite), Glory's replan to move closer to PARASOL, and OCO's long term plans to minimize on-orbit operations costs while maintaining safety. In all cases, safety is ensured, science returns are enhanced, and operational flexibility is retained to the maximum extent possible.

Kelly, Angelita C.↗