SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “State estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Estimation of the Koopman Operator with Kolmogorov–Smirnov Indicator Functions

It has become common to perform kinetic analysis using approximate Koopman operators that transform high-dimensional timeseries of observables into ranked dynamical modes. The key to the practical success of the approach is the identification of a set of observables that form a good basis on which to expand the slow relaxation modes. Good observables are, however, difficult to identify a priori and suboptimal choices can lead to significant underestimations of characteristic time scales. Leveraging the representation of slow dynamics in terms of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), we propose a simple and computationally efficient clustering procedure to infer surrogate observables that form a good basis for slow modes. Here, we apply the approach to an analytically solvable model system as well as on three protein systems of different complexities. We consistently demonstrate that the inferred indicator functions can significantly improve the estimation of the leading eigenvalues of Koopman operators and correctly identify key states and transition time scales of stochastic systems, even when good observables are not known a priori.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long‐Term Impacts of Global Solid Biofuel Emissions on Ambient Air Quality and Human Health for 2000–2019

Globally, solid biofuels (SB) have been widely used for household cooking and energy production for decades due to electricity shortages and socio-economic barriers to adopting renewable energy alternatives. This has detrimental effects on air quality, human health, and climate through trace gas and aerosol emissions. Despite numerous studies, the long-term consequences of SB emissions remain poorly understood. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model and the Community Emissions Data System emission inventory to investigate the SB emission impacts on air quality and human health for 2000–2019. Global SB emission increased the ambient PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm) and ozone (O 3 ) concentrations up to 23.61 μg/m 3 and 13.69 ppbv, with significant effects found in India, China, and the Rest of Asia (ROA). Our study estimates total annual premature deaths (APDs) associated with global SB-attributable PM 2.5 and O 3 exposure as 1.11 million [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.00–1.22 million] in 2000 up to 1.43 million (95% CI: 1.30–1.56 million) in 2019. China's SB emissions and associated APDs have reduced substantially, whereas India and ROA had a major leap in both estimates in 2019 compared to 2000. China's progress in cutting residential SB emissions accounts for its improvements. Our study urges the reduction of SB usage and emissions to potentially improve overall air quality and human health conditions, especially in highly populated, low- and middle-income countries, where the poor air quality and associated health burden attributable to SB emissions are estimated to be higher.

O 3↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University, ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prospects for n -type doping of (Al x Ga 1– x ) 2 O 3 alloys

Here we systematically explore the properties of group-IV (C, Si, Ge, and Sn) and transition metal (Hf, Zr, and Ta) dopants substituting on the cation site in (Al x Ga 1– x ) 2 O 3 (AlGO) alloys using first-principles calculations with a hybrid functional. In Ga 2 O 3 , each of these dopants acts as a shallow donor. In Al 2 O 3 , they are deep defects characterized by the formation of either DX centers or positive- U (+/0) levels. Combining our calculations of dopant charge-state transition levels with information of the AlGO alloy band structure, we estimate the critical Al composition at which each dopant transitions from being a shallow to a deep donor. We identify Si to be the most efficient dopant to achieve n -type conductivity in high Al-content AlGO alloys, acting as a shallow donor over the entire predicted stability range for AlGO solid solution alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning accelerated geometry optimization in molecular simulation

Geometry optimization is an important part of both computational materials and surface science because it is the path to finding ground state atomic structures and reaction pathways. These properties are used in the estimation of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of molecular and crystal structures. This process is slow at the quantum level of theory because it involves an iterative calculation of forces using quantum chemical codes such as density functional theory (DFT), which are computationally expensive and which limit the speed of the optimization algorithms. It would be highly advantageous to accelerate this process because then one could do either the same amount of work in less time or more work in the same time. Here, we provide a neural network (NN) ensemble based active learning method to accelerate the local geometry optimization for multiple configurations simultaneously. We illustrate the acceleration on several case studies including bare metal surfaces, surfaces with adsorbates, and nudged elastic band for two reactions. In all cases, the accelerated method requires fewer DFT calculations than the standard method. In addition, we provide an Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE)-optimizer Python package to make the usage of the NN ensemble active learning for geometry optimization easier.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electron emission from bromouracil and uracil induced by protons and radiosensitization

Absolute double differential cross sections (DDCS) of electrons emitted from uracil and 5-bromouracil (BrU) in collisions with protons of energy 200 keV have been measured for various forward and backward emission angles over wide range of electron energies. The measured DDCS are compared with the continuum distorted wave-eikonal initial state (CDW-EIS) calculations. The optimized structure of the BrU was estimated along with the population analysis of all the occupied orbitals using a self-consistent field density. A comparison between the measured DDCS data for the two molecules show that the cross section of low energy electrons emitted from BrU is substantially larger than that for uracil. The BrU-to-uracil DDCS ratios obtained from the present measurements indicate an enhancement of the electron emission by a factor which is as large as 2.0 to 2.5. These electrons being the major agent for damaging the DNA/RNA of the malignant tissues, the present results are expected to provide an important input for the radiosensitization effect in hadron therapy. It is noteworthy to mention that the CDW-EIS calculations for Coulomb ionization cannot predict such enhancement. A large angular asymmetry is observed for uracil with a broad structure, which is absent in case of BrU.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wind Farm Layout Optimization with Loads Considerations

The objective of this paper is to improve the annual energy production of a wind farm by optimizing the layout of a wind farm, while considering fatigue loads on turbines. In this paper, the loads are estimated using the edgewise bending moment computed using CCBlade, a steady-state blade element momentum code. The edgewise bending moment is then used to calculate fatigue damage using Miner's rule. The fatigue damage is used to constrain the layout optimization problem. We show that our method can predict blade root damage with similar trends to damage calculated with other methods, such as a complex, computationally expensive large-eddy simulation and unsteady aeroelastic code. We also optimize wind farm layouts and show that, for a simple problem with two wind directions and ten turbines, the fatigue damage can be constrained without sacrificing wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Population change is a main driver behind global environmental change, including urban land expansion. In future scenario modeling, assumptions regarding how populations will change locally, despite identical global constraints of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), can have dramatic effects on subsequent regional urbanization. Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1 km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The population projections included: (1) newer downscaled state-specific population (SP) projections inclusive of updated international and domestic migration estimates, and (2) prevailing downscaled national-level projections (NP) agnostic to localized demographic processes. Our work shows that alternative population inputs, even those under the same SSP, can lead to dramatic and complex differences in urban land outcomes. Under the SP projection, urbanization displays more of an extensification pattern compared to the NP projection. This suggests that recent demographic information supports more extreme urban extensification and land pressures on existing rural areas in the US than previously anticipated. Urban land outcomes to population inputs were spatially variable where areas in close spatial proximity showed divergent patterns, reflective of the spatially complex urbanization processes that can be accommodated in SELECT. Although different population projections and assumptions led to divergent outcomes, urban land development is not a linear product of population change but the result of complex relationships between population, dynamic urbanization processes, stages of urban development maturity, and feedback mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial variations in the population projections, but also urbanization process to accurately project long-term urban land patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning to classify quantum phases of matter with a few measurements

We study the identification of quantum phases of matter, at zero temperature, when only part of the phase diagram is known in advance. Following a supervised learning approach, we show how to use our previous knowledge to construct an observable capable of classifying the phase even in the unknown region. By using a combination of classical and quantum techniques, such as tensor networks, kernel methods, generalization bounds, quantum algorithms, and shadow estimators, we show that, in some cases, the certification of new ground states can be obtained with a polynomial number of measurements. An important application of our findings is the classification of the phases of matter obtained in quantum simulators, e.g. cold atom experiments, capable of efficiently preparing ground states of complex many-particle systems and applying simple measurements, e.g. single qubit measurements, but unable to perform a universal set of gates.

quantum machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deblurring for nuclei: 3D characteristics of heavy-ion collisions

Observables from nuclear and high-energy experiments can be degraded by detector performance and/or methodology in extracting the observables, such as of the final-state characteristics of heavy-ion collisions in relation to a coarsely estimated reaction-plane direction. We propose the use of deblurring methods, such as in optics, to correct for observable degradation. Our main focus is the restoration of triple-differential particle distributions in heavy-ion collisions. We demonstrate that these could be extracted from collision measurements following the Richardson-Lucy deblurring method from optics. We illustrate basic features of the restoration methodology in a schematic model assuming either ideal or more realistic particle detection. Here, the inferred three-dimensional (3D) distributions for collisions may be easier to interpret in terms of collision dynamics and sought properties of bulk matter than the currently employed Fourier coefficients, that combine information from different azimuthal angles relative to the reaction plane.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spectra of magnetic fields from electroweak symmetry breaking

We characterize magnetic fields produced during electroweak symmetry breaking by nondynamical numerical simulations based on the Kibble mechanism. The generated magnetic fields were thought to have an energy spectrum ∝ k3 for small wave numbers k, but here we show that it is actually a spectrum ∝ k4 along with characteristic fluctuations in the magnetic helicity. Using scaling results from magnetohydro- dynamics simulations for the evolution and assuming that the initial magnetic field is coherent on the electroweak Hubble scale, we estimate the magnetic field strength to be ∼10−13 G on kpc scales at the present epoch for nonhelical fields. For maximally helical fields we obtain ∼10−10 G on Mpc scales. We also give scalings of these estimates for partially helical fields.

Vachaspati, Tanmay [Arizona State University]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inference-Based Quantum Sensing

In a standard quantum sensing (QS) task one aims at estimating an unknown parameter θ, encoded into an n-qubit probe state, via measurements of the system. The success of this task hinges on the ability to correlate changes in the parameter to changes in the system response $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) (i.e., changes in the measurement outcomes). For simple cases the form of $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) is known, but the same cannot be said for realistic scenarios, as no general closed-form expression exists. Here, in this Letter, we present an inference-based scheme for QS. We show that, for a general class of unitary families of encoding, $\mathscr{R}$⁡(θ) can be fully characterized by only measuring the system response at 2⁢n+1 parameters. This allows us to infer the value of an unknown parameter given the measured response, as well as to determine the sensitivity of the scheme, which characterizes its overall performance. We show that inference error is, with high probability, smaller than δ, if one measures the system response with a number of shots that scales only as Ω⁢(log 3 ⁡(n)/δ 2 ). Furthermore, the framework presented can be broadly applied as it remains valid for arbitrary probe states and measurement schemes, and, even holds in the presence of quantum noise. We also discuss how to extend our results beyond unitary families. Finally, to showcase our method we implement it for a QS task on real quantum hardware, and in numerical simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the Effects of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Cost and Market Adoption

We conduct bottom-up analysis of how PV module efficiency could influence residential rooftop installed system costs, using models with improved representation of how soft costs and power electronics are affected by efficiency. We show that the amount of system installed cost savings resulting from high efficiency modules depends on whether or not the system is area-constrained, with much larger savings for the area-constrained case. We then estimate the fraction of physically area-constrained rooftops in the United States to be 61%, with variation between 20% to over 80% of rooftops depending on the state. We find that fraction of area-constrained systems could grow to over 88% by 2050 if building and transportation loads are electrified.

efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2023

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extended Galerkin Neural Network Approximation of Singular Variational Problems with Error Control

We present extended Galerkin neural networks, a variational framework for approximating general boundary value problems (BVPs) with error control. The main contributions of this work are (1) a rigorous theory guiding the construction of new weighted least squares variational formulations suitable for use in neural network approximation of general BVPs, and (2) an “extended” feedforward network architecture which incorporates and is even capable of learning singular solution structures, thus greatly improving approximability of singular solutions. Furthermore, numerical results are presented for several problems, including steady Stokes flow around reentrant corners and in convex corners with Moffatt eddies in order to demonstrate efficacy of the method.

a posteriori error estimate↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1

The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods to Incorporate Energy Efficiency in Electricity System Planning and Markets

Electric utilities, independent system operators and regional transmission operators have acquired significant levels of energy efficiency over several decades. The predominant approach utilities use to consider energy efficiency in electricity system planning and ISO/RTOs use in wholesale electricity markets is to reduce load forecasts to account for estimated impacts of relevant policies and programs. But an increasing number of states and utilities are interested in improved analysis of energy efficiency in electricity system planning and wholesale electricity markets. This report describes how to consider energy efficiency as a potential resource for the future by allowing it to compete with all other electricity system resources. Increasing levels of wind and solar, growth in peak demand, and electrification of transportation and other new loads have increased the need for a more flexible and responsive electricity system. Considering energy efficiency as a resource option can support these and other electricity system objectives, including grid reliability, reduced electricity costs, energy efficiency targets, and lower air pollutant emissions. The October 2019 slides were presented at the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Energy Efficiency as a Resource conference and provide an overview of the report. Portions of the report were included in the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Energy Efficiency 2020 Summer Study paper, Planning for the Grid of Tomorrow: Energy Efficiency as a Resource in Utility Resource Plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Foundational Industrial Energy Dataset (FIED): Open-Source Data on Industrial Facilities

The state of data on industrial energy use has co-evolved over several decades with the demands of industrial energy analysis. The most recent development - analysis in support of decarbonizing the industrial sector - has changed the characteristics of industrial data that are useful for analysts and model developers. Although data and its collection processes may be cast from a conventional viewpoint as objective and free from the influence of social dynamics, this provides an incomplete picture of not only the processes by which information is generated, but also the limitations and opportunities of data to be useful for analysis. The foundational industry energy data set (FIED) is a result of the confluence of trends in open data and the demand for higher resolution industrial energy analysis. The general approach to compiling the FIED involves accessing, filtering, and formatting data published by federal organizations on the Internet for public use. Unlike most industrial energy datasets, which are published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the FIED relies on core datasets from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The FIED addresses several of the areas of growing disconnect between the demands of industrial energy analysis and the state of industrial energy data by providing unit-level characterization - including estimates of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and design capacities - for facilities that are identified by latitude and longitude. This enables local-level analysis of existing combustion equipment, as well as regional comparisons with traditional industrial energy data estimates. The report summarizes the general logic behind compiling the FIED. The FIED itself and its Python code are available from OpenEI and GitHub, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗