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A parameter and structure estimation technique for multivariable systems is used to obtain state space representation of open loop dynamics of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The parameterization being used is both minimal and unique. The simplified linear models may be used for fault detection studies and control system design and development.
A computer-accessible catalog of submillimeter, millimeter, and microwave spectral lines in the frequency range between 0 and 10,000 GHz (i.e., wavelengths longer than 30 micrometers) is described. The catalog can be used as a planning or as an aid in the identification and analysis of observed spectral lines. The information listed for each spectral line includes the frequency and its estimated error, the intensity, the lower state energy, and the quantum number assignment. This edition of the catalog has information on 206 atomic and molecular species and includes a total of 630,924 lines. The catalog was constructed by using theoretical least square fits of published spectral lines to accepted molecular models. The associated predictions and their estimated errors are based upon the resultant fitted parameters and their covariances. Future versions of this catalog will add more atoms and molecules and update the present listings as new data appear. The catalog is available as a magnetic data tape recorded in card images, with one card image per spectral line, from the National Space Science Data Center, located at Goddard Space Flight Center.
A series of numerical examples is reported and several algorithms compared for estimation of coefficients in differential equation models. Unconstrained, constrained and Tikhonov regularization methods are tested for their behavior with regard to both convergence (of approximation methods for the states and parameters) and stability (continuity of the estimates with respect to perturbations in the data or observed states).
The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-ofthe-art reanalysis that provides, in addition to atmospheric fields, global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux, snow, and runoff for 1979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ("MERRA-Land") generated by re-running a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically, the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameter values in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-I root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 18 US basins) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-I. With a few exceptions, the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using MERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.
It is shown that several schemes for compactification of the extra dimensions in Kaluza-Klein theories are unstable to a quantum gravitational process of barrier penetration: The universe can tunnel from a state with static extra dimensions to a de Sitter expansion of all dimensions. The tunneling rate is estimated, and it is found that the present state of the universe is probably long-lived (in good agreement with observation).
Langley has developed a simulator of the Space Station coupled to the Space Shuttle via the Remote Manipulator System for use in evaluating handling during Station assembly. To date, evaluations of this scenario had included the Station Attitude Control System (ACS), assuming that the Station Attitude Determination System (ADS) provides perfect information on the coupled configuration. Herein, the complete Station digital autopilot (DAP) is considered including both the ADS and ACS systems. The ADS, its modelling and simulation are briefly overviewed and studies concerning the closed-loop operation of the DAP during local-coordinate, orbital attitude hold are presented. Results show that the presence of a type 0 filter in the ADS angular velocity signal processing has an adverse effect on attitude estimation because of the error in steady-state tracking of the angular velocity following reaction control jet firings. This error propagates into the attitude estimate almost linearly with time and star tracker updates are required at frequent, 3-second intervals if a .001 degree accuracy is to be maintained.
Silicon dicarbide was first observed in 1926 in spectra of cool carbon stars. The carrier of these bands around 5000 A was tentatively identified as SiC2 by Kleman (1956) who produced similar spectra by inserting silicon into the graphite tube of a King furnace heated to over 2500 K. This identification was strengthened by subsequent mass spectral studies which showed SiC2 as a major molecular component of vaporized silicon carbide. The present investigation is concerned with calculations which were initiated in an attempt to understand more recent astronomical observations of unidentified lines in the millimeter-wave region of the spectrum. The calculations were designed to determine the ground state equilibrium structure and to obtain vibrational and rotational constants. Calculations for estimating the positions and structure of low-lying electronic states were also performed. Self-consistent field (SCF) calculations were performed assuming a closed-shell electronic structure analogous to that in C3. Calculations were conducted for symmetric CSiC, and asymmetric SiCC forms.
Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS
Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.
A summary of project activities relative to the estimation of potato yields in the Columbia Basin is given. Oregon State University is using a two-pronged approach to yield estimation, one using simulation models and the other using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach has used satellite observations to determine key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Two empirical modeling approaches are illustrated. One relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation; the other relates tuber yield to the integral under the GVI curve.
A method for estimating aeroelastic stability and control derivatives for flexible aircraft is developed and demonstrated using flight test data for the X-56A subscale demonstrator. The method uses the equation-error approach with frequency-domain data, and can be applied post-flight or in real time during flight. The non-dimensional aeroelastic forces and moments and the explanatory variables (including generalized displacement, rate, and acceleration states for the vibration modes) are estimated using a finite element model and onboard sensor measurements in both a least squares and Kalman filtering framework. The data are then transformed into the frequency domain for parameter estimation using equation error. This method can result in a more efficient analysis than with other iterative methods, and can leverage existing statistical tools for model structure determination, data collinearity detection, combining multiple maneuvers or prior information, and others to improve model quality.
The longitudinal and lateral stability and control parameters for a high wing, general aviation, airplane are examined. Estimations using flight data obtained at various flight conditions within the normal range of the aircraft are presented. The estimations techniques, an output error technique (maximum likelihood) and an equation error technique (linear regression), are presented. The longitudinal static parameters are estimated from climbing, descending, and quasi steady state flight data. The lateral excitations involve a combination of rudder and ailerons. The sensitivity of the aircraft modes of motion to variations in the parameter estimates are discussed.
The objective of this conceptual design study is to verify that the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Hydrazine Propulsion Subsystem (HPS) Rocket Engine Assembly (REA) will satisfy the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) requirements and to develop a preliminary thruster module design using the existing REAs. The performance of the COBE HPS 5 lbf thrusters meet the TRMM mission requirements. The preliminary design consists of a single 5 lbf REA REM which is isolation mounted to a spacecraft interface angle bracket (5 or 10 deg angle). The REM incorporates a catalyst bed heater and sensor assembly, and propellant thermal control is achieved by thermostatically controlled heaters on the thruster valves. A ROM cost of approx. $950 K has been estimated for the phase 2 program to finalize the design, fabricate, and test the hardware using mechanical thermostats for thermal control. In the event that solid state thermostats are used, the cost is estimated to be $160 K higher. A ROM cost is approx. $145 K is estimated to study the effects of using Japanese manufactured hydrazine for the TRMM mission.
The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.
Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. Using a single common set of parameters across all sites, the calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure. However, the calibrated model's predictions of leaf area index (LAI) were less robust, capturing only 46 % of the variability in the observations. Comparing the ED2 radiative transfer model with another two-stream soil–leaf–canopy radiative transfer model commonly used in remote sensing studies (PRO4SAIL) illustrated structural errors in the ED2 representation of direct radiation backscatter that resulted in systematic underestimation of reflectance. In addition, we also highlight that, to directly compare with a two-stream radiative transfer model like EDR, we had to perform an additional processing step to convert the directional reflectance estimates of AVIRIS to hemispherical reflectance (also known as “albedo”). In future work, we recommend that vegetation models add the capability to predict directional reflectance, to allow them to more directly assimilate a wide range of airborne and satellite reflectance products. We ultimately conclude that despite these challenges, using dynamic vegetation models to predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.
The paper presents ab initio calculations performed on the electronic states of UF6, UF6(+), and UF6(-) using a relativistic effective core potential (ECP) for uranium and a nonrelativistic ECP for fluorine. In most of the calculations 56 valence electrons are treated explicitly using a contracted (3s 3p 2d 2f/2s2p) Gaussian basis. It is noted that various ECP's were explored, but all yield an overall charge density of U(+2.4)/F(-0.4)/6. In addition, the bonding in the ground state of UF6 is discussed. SCF and CI calculations on UF6(+) are compared with the experimental photoelectron spectrum and with previous scattered wave calculations. Further, the role of spin-orbit coupling in the states of UF6(+) and UF6(-) is covered. Finally, it is concluded that the calculated electron affinity of UF6 (7.1 eV) is considerably larger than in current experimental estimates, but the relative energies of the states of UF6(-) are in agreement (0.1-0.2 eV) with those of the experiment.
Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.
Lightning discharge radiating sferics near Gulf of Mexico and west coast of U.S.