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Solar spectral data are used together with absolute neon ionization cell data to estimate the absolute solar soft X-ray flux and its variation with solar activity in the 20- to 100-A region. The dependence of the integrated solar soft X-ray flux between 20 and 100 A on the daily 10.7 cm radio flux observed at 1 AU is determined. An estimate is obtained of the maximum flux that can be expected over the solar cycle.
This publication is one of three volumes in 'Space Science for the 21st Century', the Office of Space Science Strategic plan for 1995-2000. The other two volumes are the recently released Integrated Technology Strategy and the Education Plan, which is in preparation at this publication date. The Science Plan was developed by the Office of Space Science (OSS) in partnership with the Space Science Advisory Committee. The mission of the OSS is to seek answers to fundamental questions about: the galaxy and the universe; the connection between the Sun, Earth, and Heliosphere; the origin and evolution of planetary systems; and the origin and distribution of life in the universe. The strategy to answer these questions includes completing the means to survey the universe across the entire electromagnetic spectrum; completing the survey of cosmic rays through their highest energies, and of interstellar gas; carrying out a basic new test of the Theory of General Relativity; completing development of the means to understand the mechanisms of solar variability and its effects on Earth; completing the first exploration of the inner and outer frontiers of the heliosphere; determining the plasma environments of the solar system planets and how those environments are affected by solar activity; completing development of the means to finish the reconnaissance of the entire solar system from the Sun to Pluto; beginning the comprehensive search for other planets around other stars; resuming surface exploration of solar system bodies to understand the origin and evolution of the Sun's planetary system; continuing the study of biogenic compounds and their evolution in the universe; and searching for indicators of past and present conditions conducive to life.
For more than a decade total solar irradiance has been monitored simultaneously from space by different satellites. The detection of total solar irradiance variations by satellite-based experiments during the past decade and a half has stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data, using `proxy' indicators of solar activity, for time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper total solar irradiance observed by the Nimbus-7/Earth Radiation Budget (ERB), Solar Maximum Mission (SMM)/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) 1, and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)/ACRIM 2 radiometers is modeled with the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio. Since the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg core-to-wing ratio, derived from the irradiance observations of the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements. It is shown that the observed changes in solar irradiance are underestimated by the proxy models at the time of maximum and during the beginning of the declining portion of solar cycle 22 similar to behavior just before the maximum of solar cycle 21. This disagreement between total irradiance observations and their model estimates is indicative of the fact that the underlying physical mechanism of the changes observed in the solar radiative output is not well-understood. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the proxy data used for irradiance modeling and the resulting limitation of the models should be taken into account, especially when the irradiance models are used for climatic studies.
Terrestrial far ultraviolet (FUV) airglow emissions have been suggested as a means for remote sensing the structure of the upper atmosphere. The energy which leads to the excitation of FUV airglow emissions is solar irradiance at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft x-ray wavelengths. Solar irradiance at these wavelengths is known to be highly variable; studies of nitric oxide (NO) in the lower thermosphere have suggested a variability of more than an order of magnitude in the solar soft x-ray irradiance. To properly interpret the FUV airflow, the magnitude of the solar energy deposition must be known. Previous analyses have used the electron impact excited Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) bands of N2 to infer the flux of photoelectrons in the atmosphere and thus to infer the magnitude of the solar irradiance. This dissertation presents the first simultaneous measurements of the FUV airglow, the major atmospheric constituent densities, and the solar EUV and soft x-ray irradiances. The measurements were made on three flights of an identical sounding rocket payload at different levels of solar activity. The linear response in brightness of the LBH bands to variations in solar irradiance is demonstrated. In addition to the N2 LBH bands, atomic oxygen lines at 135.6 and 130.4 nm are also studied. Unlike the LBH bands, these emissions undergo radiative transfer effects in the atmosphere. The OI emission at 135.6 nm is found to be well modeled using a radiative transfer calculation and the known excitation processes. Unfortunately, the assumed processes leading to OI 130.4 nm excitation are found to be insufficient to reproduce the observed variability of this emission. Production of NO in the atmosphere is examined; it is shown that a lower than previously reported variability in the solar soft x-ray irradiance is required to explain the variability of NO.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are a spectacular manifestation of solar activity. CMEs typically appear as looplike features that disrupt helmet streamers in the solar corona. They are believed to be the primary cause of large, non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. The goal of our research sponsored by NASA's Supporting Research and Technology Program in Solar Physics is to investigate how the corona evolves to produce these eruptions. In the following sections we describe the work performed under this contract.
The future HELEX mission concept by NASA/ESA to the inner heliosphere (0.22 AU < r < 0.7 AU) and the possibility of a Solar Probe mission to the Sun (9.5 Rs < r < 0.7 AU) will allow for a comprehensive exploration of the inner heliosphere with the prospect for major discoveries and resolution of long standing issues of heliospheric science. The new Solar Probe mission being considered is equatorial and will allow exploration of the streamer belt region from a closeup perspective. We'll be able to look for the suprathermal ion population some think are necessary as the seed population for SEP events, look closeup at CMEs and formation of shock inside the Alfven critical point, probe the outer boundaries of the streamer belts, reconnection within the current sheets, MHD waves and turbulence and the inner source where they are felt to form and may reveal themselves as pickup ions. All will be launched around Solar Minimum with rise in solar activity toward the end of these missions. Extended missions could then occur during Solar Maximum. I'll talk about the complement of instrumentation and mission strategies.
Predictions of upcoming solar cycles are often related to the nature and dynamics of the Sun's polar magnetic field and its influence on the corona. For the past 30 years we have a more-or-less continuous record of the Sun's white-light corona from groundbased and spacebased coronagraphs. Over that interval, the large scale features of the corona have varied in what we now consider a 'predictable' fashion--complex, showing multiple streamers at all latitudes during solar activity maximum; and a simple dipolar shape aligned with the rotational pole during solar minimum. Over the past three decades the white-light corona appears to be a better indicator of 'true' solar minimum than sunspot number since sunspots disappear for months (even years) at solar minimum. Since almost all predictions of the timing of the next solar maximum depend on the timing of solar minimum, the white-light corona is a potentially important observational discriminator for future predictors. In this contribution we describe recent work quantifying the large-scale appearance of the Sun's corona to correlate it with the sunspot record, especially around solar minimum. These three decades can be expanded with the HAO archive of eclipse photographs which, although sparse compared to the coronagraphic coverage, extends back to 1869. A more extensive understanding of this proxy would give researchers confidence in using the white-light corona as an indicator of solar minimum conditions.
With Observations from the retarding ion mass spectrometer on the Dynamics Explorer I from 1981 through 1984, we examine the He(+) to H(+) density ratios as a function of altitude, latitude, season, local time, geomagnetic and solar activity. We find that the ratios are primarily a function of geocentric distance and the solar EUV input. The ratio of the densities, when plotted as a function of geocentric distance, decrease by an order of magnitude from 1 to 4.5 R(sub E). After the He(+) to H(+) density ratios are adjusted for the dependence on radial distance, they decrease nonlinearly by a factor of 5 as the solar EUV proxy varies from about 250 to about 70. When the mean variations with both these parameters are removed, the ratios appear to have no dependence on geomagnetic activity and weak dependence on local time or season, geomagnetic latitude, and L shell.
The nature of volcanic activity, theoretical models of its role in planetary evolution, and the evidence for volcanism on the planets and planetary satellites are examined in an introductory overview for advanced undergraduate and graduate students. Chapters are devoted to volcanism as a planetary process, the generation and evolution of magmas, magma ascent and eruption, the properties and behavior of volcanic flows, volcanic landforms, the distribution of volcanic rocks in the solar system, and volcanic plains and their development. Consideration is given to lunar volcanism, shield volcanoes and paterae, volcanism on Io, volcanism on icy satellites, and the rheological analysis of volcanic flows.
Knowledge of the plasma fluxes at geosynchronous orbit is important to both scientific and operational investigations. We present a new empirical model of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The model is based on a total of 82 satellite-years of observations from the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local-times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp. Bi-linear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ion flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local-time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3-hour Kp index), and also for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II (CEASE-II), also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicate a good match during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for distribution as a FORTRAN code that can be modified to suit user-requirements.
Fast solar wind can be accelerated from at least two different sources: polar coronal holes and equatorial coronal holes. Little is known about the relationship between the wind coming from these two different latitudes and whether these two subcategories of fast wind evolve in the same way during the solar cycle. Nineteen years of Ulysses observations, from 1990 to 2009, combined with ACE observations from 1998 to the present provide us with in situ measurements of solar wind properties that span two entire solar cycles. These missions provide an ideal data set to study the properties and evolution of the fast solar wind originating from equatorial and polar holes. In this work, we focus on these two types of fast solar wind during the minima between solar cycles 22 and 23 and 23 and 24. We use data from SWICS, SWOOPS, and VHM/FGM on board Ulysses and SWICS, SWEPAM, and MAG on board ACE to analyze the proton kinetic, thermal, and dynamic characteristics, heavy ion composition, and magnetic field properties of these two fast winds. The comparison shows that: (1) their kinetic, thermal, compositional, and magnetic properties are significantly different at any time during the two minima and (2) they respond differently to the changes in solar activity from cycle 23 to 24. These results indicate that equatorial and polar fast solar wind are two separate subcategories of fast wind. We discuss the implications of these results and relate them to remote-sensing measurements of the properties of polar and equatorial coronal holes carried out in the inner corona during these two solar minima.
The Maunder Minimum (MM), which occurred between 1645 and 1715, is mainly known as an almost spotless period on the Sun. We analyze the nominal number of sunspot groups for each observer individually. Comparing the sunspot drawings and textual reports, we conclude that the latter underestimate the number of sunspots. We also argue that the different points of view of observers in the seventeenth century on the origin of sunspots resulted in the underestimation of sunspot groups or even gaps in observational reports. We demonstrate that Jean Picard and Giovanni Domenico Cassini of the Paris Observatory did not report any sunspots, while other observers reported on the occurrence of spots. Moreover, compared with other observers, La Hire underestimated the solar activity. The MM looks like an ordinary secular minimum with a depressed 11 yr solar cyclicity.
The physical processes by which the magnetic energy of a solar active region is converted to other forms of energy in the appearance of a solar flare are discussed. Observations of the secondary manifestations of flare energy release, such as thermal plasmas and energetic particle emissions, are presented, with particular attention given to the temporal variations of flare radiation, the various forms of energy release, flare energy density, flare locations and sizes, energy distributions and H alpha, hard X-ray and microwave burst events. Current models of the primary energy release process are surveyed, and the models of Spicer (1976, 1977), which explains rapid flare energy release in terms of multiple tearing modes causing reconnection in sheared magnetic fields, and Uchida and Sakurai (1976, 1978), which attributes primary energy release to dynamic collapse caused by the interchange instability of the neutral sheet, are examined in detail.
Evidence contained within lunar rocks concerning possible variations in solar activity over the last 1 to 2 million years is reviewed. The effects of solar wind particles, which are implanted at shallow depths, solar flare protons, which produce thermoluminescence as well as stable and radionuclides, and solar flare heavy nuclei, which produce tracks, are considered, and the quality and limitations of nuclear tracks measurements as indicators of solar flare flux histories are discussed. Methods used for the determination of the solar flare track production rate, which must be known in order to measure lunar rock surface exposure times, are compared, and it is concluded that most of the evidence favors the rate obtained by Blanford et al. (1975). Information on the constancy of the solar flare particle flux obtained by comparison of the effects of different surface phenomena with solar particle effects is then illustrated for the cases of comparisons between solar flare tracks and microcrater densities, solar flare particle fluxes measured over different periods, and comparisons of the solar flare track production rate with the solar wind flux and microcratering rate. It is noted that these studies provide no evidence for a change in solar particle flux by more than a factor of two over the last 10,000 to 1 million years, or for a change in the solar flare Fe/H ratio in the last 2 million years.
Continuous measurements of solar wind 3He(++) and 4He(++) were made covering a full range of solar wind conditions. The average flux ratio derived from these data is 2310 + or - 50, in excellent agreement with the Apollo foil measurements. A probable correlation between average flux ratio and solar activity was found; however, an examination of the data during periods of 3He(++)-rich solar flares shows no detectable increase in 3He(++) in the solar wind.
In the investigation conducted by Yau et al. (1984), the occurrence frequency distribution of upflowing ionospheric ions (UFI) in the auroral and polar cap ionosphere up to 23,300 km altitude was determined using the Energetic Ion Composition Spectrometer (EICS) data acquired in the first orbital cycle (18 months) of Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1). The present paper is concerned with the seasonal and long-term variations in the occurrence and composition characteristics of upflowing ions. The observed solar cycle and seasonal dependences of upflowing ionospheric ion occurrence morphology are summarized schematically in a graph. It is found that the acceleration altitude of O(+) UFI is modulated by the atmospheric scale height, which increases with increasing solar activity (EUV flux). The O(+) UFI occurrence frequency (and hence O(+) outflow) increases at solar maximum.
A primary scientific objective for solar flare research during the rapidly approaching maximum in solar activity is the imaging of gamma-ray and hard x ray sources of solar flare emissions. These goals will be pursued by the Gamma Ray Imaging Device (GRID) instrument, one of three instruments recently selected for NASA's Max '91 Solar Balloon Program. The GRID instrument is based on the technique of Fourier transform imaging and utilizes scanning modulation grid collimator optics to provide full-Sun imaging with 1.9-arcsecond resolution over the energy range from 20 to 700 keV at time resolutions from 0.1 to 2 s. The GRID telescope will employ 32 subcollimators, each composed of a matched pair of high-Z collimator grids separated by 5.2 meters and a phoswich scintillation spectrometer detector having no spatial resolution. The subcollimators and integrally-mounted fine aspect system are contained within a telescope canister which will be pointed to 0.1 degree accuracy and cyclically scanned to produce source modulation. The 32 subcollimators provide a uniform distribution of grid slit orientations and a logarithmic distribution of slit spacings corresponding to angular dimensions of 1.9 arcseconds to several arcminutes. The instrument is several orders of magnitude more sensitive than the HXIS instrument on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and nearly 10 times more sensitive than any similar instrument scheduled to fly during the next solar maximum. The payload, designed for long-duration high-altitude balloon capability, is scheduled for its first science flight (8 to 14 days duration) from the Antarctic in January of 1992.
Recent studies of solar UV related changes of ozone and temperature have considerably improved the understanding of the solar UV and ozone relationship in the middle atmosphere on time scales of a solar rotation. These studies have shown that during periods of high solar activity, ozone in the upper stratosphere has a measurable response to changes in the solar UV flux in accordance with theoretical predictions. The problem of measuring solar response of the stratospheric ozone and temperature on time scales of a solar cycle is more difficult. In the altitude range of 2 mb, the model based calculations, based on plausible scenarios of solar UV variation, suggest a change of less than 4 percent in ozone mixing ratio and 1 to 2 K in temperature. The relative response was studied of the middle atmosphere to solar forcing at 155 and 27 day periods as indicated from the spectral analyses of a number of solar indices.