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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Differential equations for cosmological correlators

Cosmological fluctuations retain a memory of the physics that generated them in their spatial correlations. The strength of correlations varies smoothly as a function of external kinematics, which is encoded in differential equations satisfied by cosmological correlation functions. In this work, we provide a broader perspective on the origin and structure of these differential equations. As a concrete example, we study conformally coupled scalar fields in a power-law cosmology. The wavefunction coefficients in this model have integral representations, with the integrands being the product of the corresponding flat-space results and “twist factors” that depend on the cosmological evolution. Similar twisted integrals arise for loop amplitudes in dimensional regularization, and their recent study has led to the discovery of rich mathematical structures and powerful new tools for computing multi-loop Feynman integrals in quantum field theory. The integrals of interest in cosmology are also part of a finite-dimensional basis of master integrals, which satisfy a system of first-order differential equations. We develop a formalism to derive these differential equations for arbitrary tree graphs. The results can be represented in graphical form by associating the singularities of the differential equations with a set of graph tubings. Upon differentiation, these tubings grow in a local and predictive fashion. In fact, a few remarkably simple rules allow us to predict — by hand — the equations for all tree graphs. While the rules of this “kinematic flow” are defined purely in terms of data on the boundary of the spacetime, they reflect the physics of bulk time evolution. We also study the analogous structures in tr ϕ 3 theory, and see some glimpses of hidden structure in the sum over planar graphs. This suggests that there is an autonomous combinatorial or geometric construction from which cosmological correlations, and the associated spacetime, emerge.

Cosmological models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Analysis with Variational Autoencoders: A Comparison of Shallow and Deep Networks

Inverse problems are applied to determine unknown properties by matching observational data with a physical model that often takes many parameters as input. To overcome the underconstrained nature of inverse problems and achieve good performance, an approach is presented involving regularization with a technique known as a variational autoencoder (VAE), which is trained to map a high-dimensional parameter space with a complex structure to a low-dimensional latent space with a simple structure. We apply this approach to unconditioned realizations of the parameters (heterogeneous hydraulic fields) for a hydrogeological inverse problem. Two types of hydraulic conductivity fields are used to evaluate the characterization for the different levels of heterogeneity complexity of the physical inputs. This approach keeps the computational cost of generating the training data low. The reason is unconditioned realizations neither rely on the observational data used to perform the inverse analysis nor require any groundwater flow model forward runs. In addition, this approach applies regularization on a low-dimensional latent space from the VAE and increases optimization efficiency through automatic differentiation. Furthermore, two different neural network (NN) structures are tested for their utility in using the VAE for inverse analysis. The performance of a deep, convolutional neural network strongly depends on the dimensionality of the latent space, which requires tuning. In contrast, a shallow, dense neural network provides consistently accurate characterization without tuning. Furthermore, our approach evaluates the advantages of the shallow, dense neural network over the deep, convolutional one and enables future application to a wide range of inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Flight Deck-Based Interval Management Crew Procedure Feasibility

Air traffic demand is predicted to increase over the next 20 years, creating a need for new technologies and procedures to support this growth in a safe and efficient manner. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration - 1 (ATD-1) will operationally demonstrate the feasibility of efficient arrival operations combining ground-based and airborne NASA technologies. The integration of these technologies will increase throughput, reduce delay, conserve fuel, and minimize environmental impacts. The ground-based tools include Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering for precise time-based scheduling and Controller Managed Spacing decision support tools for better managing aircraft delay with speed control. The core airborne technology in ATD-1 is Flight deck-based Interval Management (FIM). FIM tools provide pilots with speed commands calculated using information from Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast. The precise merging and spacing enabled by FIM avionics and flight crew procedures will reduce excess spacing buffers and result in higher terminal throughput. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ATD-1 procedures used in a voice communications environment. This experiment utilized the ATD-1 integrated system of ground-based and airborne technologies. Pilot participants flew a high-fidelity fixed base simulator equipped with an airborne spacing algorithm and a FIM crew interface. Experiment scenarios involved multiple air traffic flows into the Dallas-Fort Worth Terminal Radar Control airspace. Results indicate that the proposed procedures were feasible for use by flight crews in a voice communications environment. The delivery accuracy at the achieve-by point was within +/- five seconds and the delivery precision was less than five seconds. Furthermore, FIM speed commands occurred at a rate of less than one per minute, and pilots found the frequency of the speed commands to be acceptable at all times throughout the experiment scenarios.

Wilson, Sara R.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Einstein–Cartan gravity, Asymptotic Safety, and the running Immirzi parameter

In this paper we analyze the functional renormalization group flow of quantum gravity on the Einstein–Cartan theory space. The latter consists of all action functionals depending on the spin connection and the vielbein field (co-frame) which are invariant under both spacetime diffeomorphisms and local frame rotations. In the first part of the paper we develop a general methodology and corresponding calculational tools which can be used to analyze the flow equation for the pertinent effective average action for any truncation of this theory space. In the second part we apply it to a specific three-dimensional truncated theory space which is parametrized by Newton’s constant, the cosmological constant, and the Immirzi parameter. A comprehensive analysis of their scale dependences is performed, and the possibility of defining an asymptotically safe theory on this hitherto unexplored theory space is investigated. In principle Asymptotic Safety of metric gravity (at least at the level of the effective average action) is neither necessary nor sufficient for Asymptotic Safety on the Einstein–Cartan theory space which might accommodate different “universality classes” of microscopic quantum gravity theories. Nevertheless, we do find evidence for the existence of at least one non-Gaussian renormalization group fixed point which seems suitable for the Asymptotic Safety construction in a setting where the spin connection and the vielbein are the fundamental field variables. -- Highlights: •A functional RG equation for a first order formulation of gravity is constructed. •The theory space constituted by tetrad and spin connection variables is explored. •The RG equation is solved in a 3 dimensional truncation of theory space. •The flow of Newton’s constant, the cosmological constant and the Immirzi parameter is analyzed. •Evidence for the nonperturbative renormalizability of the theory is found.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Role of Ceramics and Ceramic Matrix Composites in NASA's Advanced Space Propulsion Programs

In recent years, NASA has embarked on several new and exciting efforts in the exploration and use of space. The successful accomplishment of many planned missions and projects is dependent upon the development and deployment of previously unproven propulsion systems. Key to many of the propulsion systems is the use of structural ceramics and ceramic matrix composites. In spite of their promise, a number of programmatic and technical hurdles remain before the potential of ceramic materials can be realized. A programmatic environment which focuses on relatively short term hardware demonstration programs precludes traditional longer term material's development efforts. The challenge oftentimes becomes one of engineering ceramics into proposed missions. This is dependent upon a fundamental understanding of processing, degradation and design issues unique to space vehicle design and operations. A review of the general missions and benefits of utilizing ceramics and ceramic matrix composites will be presented. The design parameters and operating conditions will be presented for both specific missions/vehicles and classes of components. Key technical challenges and opportunities are identified along with suggested paths for addressing them.

Eckel, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The Role of Ceramics and Ceramic Matrix Composites in NASA's Advanced Space Propulsion Programs

In recent years, NASA has embarked on several new and exciting efforts in the exploration and use of space. The successful accomplishment of many planned missions and projects is dependent upon the development and deployment of previously unproven propulsion systems. Key to many of the propulsion systems is the use of structural ceramics and ceramic matrix composites. In spite of their promise, a number of programmatic and technical hurdles remain before the potential of ceramic materials can be realized. A programmatic environment which focuses on relatively short term hardware demonstration programs precludes traditional longer term material's development efforts. The challenge oftentimes becomes one of engineering ceramics into proposed missions. This is dependent upon a fundamental understanding of processing, degradation and design issues unique to space vehicle design and operations. A review of the general missions and benefits of utilizing ceramics and ceramic matrix composites will be presented. The design parameters and operating conditions will be presented for both specific missions/vehicles and classes of components. Key technical challenges and opportunities are identified along with suggested paths for addressing them.

Eckel, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Error Modeling of Multi-baseline Optical Truss: Application to SIM Metrology Truss Field Dependent Error - Part II

The current design of the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) employs a 19 laser-metrology-beam system (also called L19 external metrology truss) to monitor changes of distances between the fiducials of the flight system's multiple baselines. The function of the external metrology truss is to aid in the determination of the time-variations of the interferometer baseline. The largest contributor to truss error occurs in SIM wide-angle observations when the articulation of the siderostat mirrors (in order to gather starlight from different sky coordinates) brings to light systematic errors due to offsets at levels of instrument components (which include comer cube retro-reflectors, etc.). This error is labeled external metrology wide-angle field-dependent error. Physics-based model of field-dependent error at single metrology gauge level is developed and linearly propagated to errors in interferometer delay. In this manner delay error sensitivity to various error parameters or their combination can be studied using eigenvalue/eigenvector analysis. Also validation of physics-based field-dependent model on SIM testbed lends support to the present approach. As a first example, dihedral error model is developed for the comer cubes (CC) attached to the siderostat mirrors. Then the delay errors due to this effect can be characterized using the eigenvectors of composite CC dihedral error. The essence of the linear error model is contained in an error-mapping matrix. A corresponding Zernike component matrix approach is developed in parallel, first for convenience of describing the RMS of errors across the field-of-regard (FOR), and second for convenience of combining with additional models. Average and worst case residual errors are computed when various orders of field-dependent terms are removed from the delay error. Results of the residual errors are important in arriving at external metrology system component requirements. Double CCs with ideally co-incident vertices reside with the siderostat. The non-common vertex error (NCVE) is treated as a second example. Finally combination of models, and various other errors are discussed.

comer cube retro-reflector↗
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding the Role of Ferroelastic Domains on the Pyroelectric and Electrocaloric Effects in Ferroelectric Thin Films

It is well known that temperature- and electric-field-induced structural transitions in a polydomain ferroelectric can have profound effects on its electrothermal susceptibilities. Here, the role of such ferroelastic domains on the pyroelectric and electrocaloric response is experimentally investigated in thin films of the tetragonal ferroelectric PbZr 0.2 Ti 0. 8O 3 . By utilizing epitaxial strain, a rich set of ferroelastic polydomain states spanning a broad thermodynamic phase space are stabilized. Using temperature-dependent scanning-probe microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and high-frequency phase-sensitive pyroelectric measurements, the propensity of domains to reconfigure under a temperature perturbation is quantitatively studied. In turn, the “extrinsic” contributions to pyroelectricity exclusively due to changes between the ferroelastic domain population is elucidated as a function of epitaxial strain. Further, using highly sensitive thin-film resistive thermometry, direct electrocaloric temperature changes are measured on these polydomain thin films for the first time. The results demonstrate that temperature- and electric-field-driven domain interconversion under compressive strain diminish both the pyroelectric and the electrocaloric effects, while both these susceptibilities are enhanced due to the exact-opposite effect from the extrinsic contributions under tensile strain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

VTAnDeM: A python toolkit for simultaneously visualizing phase stability, defect energetics, and carrier concentrations of materials

Phase stability, defect formation energies, and carrier concentrations are closely interrelated features of semiconductors. Due to their joint dependence on the multidimensional chemical potential space, it is challenging to quantitatively establish patterns between these quantities in a given semiconductor, especially when the semiconductor is comprised of multiple elements. To enable synchronous visualization and analysis of these complementary material properties and their interdependence, we developed the Visualization Toolkit for Analyzing Defects in Materials (VTAnDeM). This python-based toolkit allows users to interactively explore how defect formation energies and carrier concentrations vary across the composition and chemical potential spaces of multicomponent semiconductors. Here, we illustrate the computational workflow that employs VTAnDeM as a post-processing tool for first-principles calculations and describe the data organization and theory underlying the visualization scheme. Furthermore, we believe that this software will serve as a useful tool for simultaneously visualizing the often complex and non-intuitive chemical potential – defect – carrier concentration phase space of semiconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Boltzmann equation solver adapted to emergent chemical non-equilibrium

We present a novel method to solve the spatially homogeneous and isotropic relativistic Boltzmann equation. We employ a basis set of orthogonal polynomials dynamically adapted to allow for emergence of chemical non-equilibrium. Two time dependent parameters characterize the set of orthogonal polynomials, the effective temperature T(t) and phase space occupation factor ϒ(t). In this first paper we address (effectively) massless fermions and derive dynamical equations for T(t) and ϒ(t) such that the zeroth order term of the basis alone captures the particle number density and energy density of each particle distribution. We validate our method and illustrate the reduced computational cost and the ability to easily represent final state chemical non-equilibrium by studying a model problem that is motivated by the physics of the neutrino freeze-out processes in the early Universe, where the essential physical characteristics include reheating from another disappearing particle component (e{sup ±}-annihilation)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the irradiation creep by climb-enabled glide of dislocations

The plastic deformation is defined by the proportional to stress elastic deflections of pinned dislocations in climb-enabled glide models of irradiation creep. Here, we argue that this relation is incorrect; instead, as in other pinning-unpinning-type models, the dislocations move from one set of obstacles to another, so that the inter-obstacle spacing determines creep rate, whereas the dependence on the applied stress is only implicit in the unpinning time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Structural and electrical properties of the sol-gel prepared Sr{sub 1-x}Er{sub x}SnO{sub 3-{delta}} compounds

Erbium-substituted strontium stannates, with Er content 0{<=}x{<=}0.09, have been prepared by sol-gel method. The solubility limit of Er was found to be about 3%. The influence of temperature and the duration of the calcination, on the confirmation of single phase of Er doped SrSnO{sub 3} were investigated by using X-ray powder diffraction. The distribution of Er{sup 3+} in the crystal structure has been studied. Rietveld refinement of the data revealed that the crystal structure of the representative compound (Sr{sub 0.97}Er{sub 0.03}SnO{sub 3-{delta}}) is orthorhombic perovskite (space group Pbnm). The cell dimensions are: a=5.7152(1) A, b=5.7092(1) A and c=8.0710(2) A. The IR spectroscopy measurements of the samples with x{<=}0.03 were done in a wavelength range 400-2000 cm{sup -1} and confirmed the observed tilting in the SnO{sub 6} octahedra. The transport properties in the system Sr{sub 1-x}Er{sub x}SnO{sub 3-{delta}}, x{<=}0.03, were investigated at high temperature. The Sr{sub 0.97}Er{sub 0.03}SnO{sub 3-{delta}} compound exhibits semiconductive behaviour and the electrical transport mechanism agrees with the non-adiabatic small polaron hopping model between nominal states Sn{sup 4+}/Sn{sup 2+} in the temperature ranges 350-525 and 525-693 K separately. - Graphical abstract: The Sr{sub 0.97}Er{sub 0.03}SnO{sub 3-{delta}} compound exhibits semiconductive behaviour and the electrical transport mechanism agrees with the non-adiabatic small polaron hopping model between nominal states Sn{sup 4+}/Sn{sup 2+}. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Er showed a maximum solubility of 3 mol% in SrSnO{sub 3} perovskite at 1173 K. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer SnO{sub 6} octahedra in Sr{sub 1-x}Er{sub x}SnO{sub 3-{delta}} are tilted. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The expansion of the cell parameters ascribed to the apparition of Sn{sup 2+} ions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Transport mechanism in Sr{sub 0.97}Er{sub 0.03}SnO{sub 3-{delta}} agrees with the non-adiabatic small polaron hopping model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

Structural phase transitions in the Ag{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11}-Na{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11} solid solution

The phase transitions between various structural modifications of the natrotantite-structured system xAg{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11}-(1-x)Na{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11} have been investigated and a phase diagram constructed as a function of temperature and composition. This shows three separate phase transition types: (1) paraelectric-ferroelectric, (2) rhombohedral-monoclinic and (3) a phase transition within the ferroelectric rhombohedral zone between space groups R3c and R3. The parent structure for the entire series has space group R3{sup Macron }c. Compositions with x>0.75 are rhombohedral at all temperatures whereas compositions with x<0.75 are all monoclinic at room temperature and below. At x=0.75, rhombohedral and monoclinic phases coexist with the phase boundary below room temperature being virtually temperature-independent. The ferroelectric phase boundary extends into the monoclinic phase field. No evidence was found for the R3-R3c phase boundary extending into the monoclinic phase field and it is concluded that a triple point is formed. - Graphical abstract: Phase diagram for xAg{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11}-(1-x)Na{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11} solid solution showing changes in crystal symmetry as a function of temperature and composition. The crystal structure is depicted. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Triangle Ferroelectric, rhombohedral Ag{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11} in solid solution with monoclinic Na{sub 2}Nb{sub 4}O{sub 11}. Black-Right-Pointing-Triangle Three phase boundaries were studied as a function of composition and temperature. Black-Right-Pointing-Triangle Both rhombohedral and monoclinic variants exhibit ferroelectricity. The parent phase of the series has space group R3{sup Macron }c.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Magnetic and magnetocaloric properties of La{sub 0.6}Pr{sub 0.1}Sr{sub 0.3}Mn{sub 1−x}Fe{sub x}O{sub 3} (0≤x≤0.3) manganites

The La{sub 0.6}Pr{sub 0.1}Sr{sub 0.3}Mn{sub 1−x}Fe{sub x}O{sub 3} (x=0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3) samples have been elaborated by the solid-state reaction method. X-ray powder diffraction shows that all the samples crystallize in a rhombohedric phase with R3{sup ¯}c space group. The variation of magnetization as a function of temperature and applied magnetic field was carried out. The samples for x=0 and 0.1 exhibit a FM–PM transition at the Curie temperature T{sub C}, however, for x=0.2 and 0.3 exhibit an AFM–PM one at the Neel temperature T{sub N}, when the temperature increases. A magneto-caloric effect has been calculated in terms of isothermal magnetic entropy change. A large magneto-caloric effect has been observed, the maximum entropy change, |ΔS{sub M}{sup max}|, reaches the highest value of 3.28 J/kgK under a magnetic field change of 5 T with an RCP value of 220 J/kg for La{sub 0.6}Pr{sub 0.1}Sr{sub 0.3}MnO{sub 3} composition, which will be an interesting compound for application materials working as magnetic refrigerants near room temperature. - Graphical abstract: Magnetic entropy change versus temperature and applied magnetic field for x=0.1 (a) and RCP versus applied magnetic field for x=0, 0.1 (b). - Highlights: • The La{sub 0.6}Pr{sub 0.1}Sr{sub 0.3}Mn{sub 1−x}Fe{sub x}O{sub 3} (0≤x≤0.3) polycrystalline samples were prepared by the solid state reaction method. • Crystalline and magnetic structures were investigated using DRX and magnetization measurements. • The magnetocaloric (MC) effect was estimated versus magnetic field and temperatures. • Compounds with x=0, 0.1 exhibit great potential for magnetic refrigeration at room temperature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

First observation and study of the K ± →π ± π 0 e + e - decay

The NA48/2 experiment at CERN reports the first observation of the ± →π ± π 0 e + e - decay from an exposure of 1.7 x 10 11 charged kaon decays recorded in 2003–2004. A sample of 4919 candidates with 4.9% background contamination allows the determination of the branching ratio in the full kinematic region, BR (K ± → π ± π 0 e + e - = (4.24 ± 0.14) x 10 -6 . Finally the study of the kinematic space shows evidence for a structure dependent contribution in agreement with predictions based on chiral perturbation theory. Several P- and CP-violating asymmetries are also evaluated.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering Reveals Hierarchical Structure in a Multicomponent Vapor-Deposited Glass

Multiphase vapor-deposited glasses are an important class of materials for organic electronics, particularly organic photovoltaics and thermoelectrics. These blends are frequently regarded as molecular alloys and there have been few studies of their structure at nanometer scales. Here, in this work, we show that a codeposited system of TPD (N,N'-bis(3-methylphenyl)-N,N'-diphenylbenzidine) and DO37 (disperse orange 37), two small molecule glass-formers, separates into amorphous, compositionally distinct phases with a domain size and spacing ca. 10s of nanometers that depends on substrate temperature during deposition. Domains rich in one of the two components become larger and more pure at higher deposition temperatures. We use resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSoXS) complemented with atomic force microscopy (AFM) and photoinduced force microscopy to measure the phase separation, topography, and purity of the deposited films. A forward-simulation approach to RSoXS analysis, the National Institute of Standards and Technology RSoXS Simulation Suite (NIST RSoXS simulation suite), is used with models developed from AFM images to evaluate the energy dependence of scattering across multiple length scales and interpret the RSoXS with respect to structure within the films. We find that the RSoXS is sensitive to a length scale of phase separation buried within the film that is consistent with the surface composition profile, and correlates to the topography to an extent that depends on substrate temperature. We demonstrate that vacuum scattering, which is often ignored in RSoXS analysis, contributes significantly to the features and energy dependence of the RSoXS pattern, and then illustrate how to properly account for vacuum scattering to analyze films with significant roughness. We then use this analysis framework to understand structure development mechanisms that occur during vapor deposition of a TPD-DO37 codeposited glass with results that outline paths to tune morphology in multicomponent materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structural Propensities in Cs2MBiX6 (M=Na, Ag; X=Cl, Br) Bismuth Halide Double Perovskites

A previously unreported low-temperature phase transition in the bismuth halide double perovskite Cs2AgBiCl6 is reported, thereby establishing trends in the structural ground state across Cs2NaBiCl6, Cs2AgBiCl6, and Cs2AgBiBr6. Using the combined toolkit of variable-temperature synchrotron X-ray and neutron powder diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and density-functional theory–based electronic structure modeling, we demonstrate a cubic Fm¯3m → tetragonal I4/m transition upon cooling with distinct onset temperatures. Neutron powder diffraction refinements permit the unambiguously assignment of the low-temperature phase of Cs2NaBiCl6 to I4/m, correcting prior reports of an I4/mmm ground state. Cs2AgBiCl6 is also found to transforms to a structure crystallizing in the I4/m space group at low temperatures. Temperaturedependent Raman data and density-functional theory-based modeling capture the softening and freezing of out-of-phase octahedral-tilt modes and quantify relative instabilities. Solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at room temperature completes the characterization and helps underpin the subtle differences in covalency across the compounds. Trends in the phase transition temperature Ts and tilt magnitudes emerge from coupled effects of halide identity, M(I)–site bonding character, and a mismatch between interatomic distances. These results establish the structure– dynamics–bonding framework for tuning tilt-driven instabilities in halide double perovskites.

Tian, Haowen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗