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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

First Principles Based Reactive Atomistic Simulations to Understand the Effects of Molecular Hypervelocity Impact on Cassini's Ion and Neutral Mass Spectrometer

We report here on the predicted impact of species such as ice-water, CO2, CH4, and NH3, on oxidized titanium, as well as HC species on diamond surfaces. These simulations provide the dynamics of product distributions during and after a hypervelocity impact event, ionization fractions, and dissociation probabilities for the various species of interest as a function of impact velocity (energy). We are using these results to determine the relevance of the fragmentation process to Cassini INMS results, and to quantify its effects on the observed spectra.

hypervelocity collisions↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Approach to Total Dose Specification for Spacecraft Electronics

Variability of the space radiation environment is investigated with regard to total dose specification for spacecraft electronics. It is shown to have a significant impact. A new approach is developed for total dose requirements that replaces the radiation design margin concept with failure probability during a mission.

Device Failure Probability↗
NASA NTRS2018

A search for variability in exoplanet analogues and low-gravity brown dwarfs

We report the results of a J-band survey for photometric variability in a sample of young, low-gravity objects using the New Technology Telescope (NTT) and the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT). Surface gravity is a key parameter in the atmospheric properties of brown dwarfs and this is the first large survey that aims to test the gravity dependence of variability properties. We do a full analysis of the spectral signatures of youth and assess the group membership probability of each target using membership tools from the literature. This results in a 30 object sample of young low-gravity brown dwarfs. Since we are lacking in objects with spectral types later than L9, we focus our statistical analysis on the L0–L8.5 objects. We find that the variability occurrence rate of L0–L8.5 low-gravity brown dwarfs in this survey is 30(+16,−8) per cent⁠. We reanalyse the results of Radigan (2014) and find that the field dwarfs with spectral types L0–L8.5 have a variability occurrence rate of 11(+13,−4) per cent⁠. We determine a probability of 98 per cent that the samples are drawn from different distributions. This is the first quantitative indication that the low-gravity objects are more likely to be variable than the field dwarf population. Furthermore, we present follow-up J(S) and K(S) observations of the young, planetary-mass variable object PSO 318.5–22 over three consecutive nights. We find no evidence of phase shifts between the J(S) and K(S) bands and find higher J(S) amplitudes. We use the J(S) light curves to measure a rotational period of 8.45 ± 0.05 h for PSO 318.5–22.

Johanna M. Vos↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance Framework for Achieving Highly Reusable Launch Systems

The United States Space Force and NASA are exploring approaches that enable rapid launch response via highly reusable launch systems. One hindrance to achieving high reusability is the inability to meet damage tolerance requirements. To this end, a framework for applying reliability-based damage tolerance to space structures is presented. The reliability-based approach employs probabilistic distributions of key input variables such as material properties, geometry, loads, inspection probability, and defect characteristics to predict hardware reliability for the planned mission life. The probabilistic variables needed to perform the reliability assessments are defined and recommendations on how to collect the required data are provided. Several example problems illustrate the implementation and execution of this approach.

Leland Shimizu↗
NASA NTRS1981

Observations pertaining to the generation of auroral kilometric radiation

Auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) observations that have determined the propagation mode or polarization of the radiation and the detailed intensity distribution of the AKR emission cone are discussed. Attention is also given to correlations between AKR with discrete field-aligned currents. It is noted that these observations have helped to identify the auroral particle population most likely responsible for the generation of AKR and the possible sources of the free energy that drives the instability. Thus far, AKR has not been observed simultaneously with large electrostatic waves. Auroral zone current systems are thought to be intimately involved in the generation of AKR. In particular, the most probable source of energy for AKR is the precipitating inverted-V auroral electron distribution.

Green, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Monte Carlo inversion of seismic data

The analytic solution to the linear inverse problem provides estimates of the uncertainty of the solution in terms of standard deviations of corrections to a particular solution, resolution of parameter adjustments, and information distribution among the observations. It is shown that Monte Carlo inversion, when properly executed, can provide all the same kinds of information for nonlinear problems. Proper execution requires a relatively uniform sampling of all possible models. The expense of performing Monte Carlo inversion generally requires strategies to improve the probability of finding passing models. Such strategies can lead to a very strong bias in the distribution of models examined unless great care is taken in their application.

Wiggins, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Scalar dissipation and mixing in turbulent reacting flows

The mixing term that appears in probability density function-based formulations of the statistical behavior of turbulent reacting flows was studied with the use of direct numerical simulations of an irreversible, second-order, isothermal chemical reaction between initially segregated reactants in decaying, homogeneous turbulence. Three-dimensional, time-dependent pseudospectral calculations with 64-cubed Fourier modes were made as well as were Monte Carlo simulations of the joint concentration pdf equations for coalescence-dispersion (C/D) models. It was found that the development of the scalar microscales depends largely on the initial concentration distributions (both isotropic and nonisotropic distributions were used) and is relatively independent of the reaction rate constant. Joint concentration probability density functions were compared to predictions of D/D models that make use of parameters evaluated from the nonreacting or inert system.

Leonard, Andy D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Nanotube Tunneling as a Consequence of Probable Discrete Trajectories

It has been recently reported that the electrical charge in a semiconductive carbon nanotube is not evenly distributed, but is divided into charge "islands." A clear understanding of tunneling phenomena can be useful to elucidate the mechanism for electrical conduction in nanotubes. This paper represents the first attempt to shed light on the aforementioned phenomenon through viewing tunneling as a natural consequence of "discrete trajectories." The relevance of this analysis is that it may provide further insight into the higher rate of tunneling processes, which makes tunneling devices attractive. In a situation involving particles impinging on a classically impenetrable barrier, the result of quantum mechanics that the probability of detecting transmitted particles falls off exponentially is derived without wave theory. This paper should provide a basis for calculating the charge profile over the length of the tube so that nanoscale devices' conductive properties may be fully exploited.

Robinson, Daryl C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Soot Aerosols in the Atmosphere: Contributions by Aircraft

Interest in the distribution of black carbon (soot) aerosol (BCA) in the atmosphere is based on the following: (1) Because BCA has the highest absorption cross section of any compound know, it can absorb solar radiation to cause atmospheric warming; (2) Because BCA is a strong adsorber of gases, it can catalyze heterogeneous chemical reactions to modify the chemical composition of the atmosphere; (3) If aircraft emission is the major source of BCA, it can serve as an atmospheric tracer of aircraft exhaust. We collect BCA particles as small as 0.02 micrometers by wires mounted on both the DC-8 and ER-2 aircraft. After return to the laboratory, the wires are examined with a field emission scanning electron microscope to identify BCA particles by their characteristics morphology, Typically, BCA exists in the atmosphere as small particles of complex morphology. The particle sizes at the source are measured in tens of Angstrom units; after a short residence time in the atmosphere, individual particles coalesce to loosely packed agglomerates of typical dimensions 0.01 to 0.1 micrometer. We approximate the size of each BCA aggregate by that of a sphere of equivalent volume. This is done by computing the volume of a sphere whose diameter is the mean between averaged minimum and maximum dimensions of the BCA particle. While this procedure probably underestimates the actual surface area, it permits us to compare BCA size distributions among themselves and with other types of aerosols.

Pueschel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Soot Aerosol In The Atmosphere: Pole-to-Pole Distribution And Contributions by Aircraft

Interest in the distribution of black carbon (soot) aerosol (BCA) in the atmosphere is warranted for the following reasons: (1) BCA has the highest absorption cross section of any compound known, thus it can absorb solar radiation to cause atmospheric warming; (2) BCA is a strong adsorber of gases, thus it can catalyze heterogeneous chemical reactions to modify the chemical composition of the atmosphere; (3) If aircraft emission is the major source of atmospheric BCA, it can serve as an atmospheric tracer of aircraft exhaust. We collect BCA particles greater than or equal to 0.02 micrometer diameter by wires mounted on both the DC-8 and ER-2 aircraft. After return to the laboratory, the wires are examined with a field emission scanning electron microscope to identify BCA particles by their characteristic morphology. Typically, BCA exists in the atmosphere as small particles of complex morphology. The particle sizes at the source are measured in tens of Angstrom units; after a short residence time in the atmosphere, individual particles coalesce to loosely packed agglomerates of typical dimensions 0.01 to 0.1 micrometer. We approximate the size of each BCA aggregate by that of a sphere of equivalent volume. This is done by computing the volume of a sphere whose diameter is the mean between averaged minimum and maximum dimensions of the BCA particle. While this procedure probably underestimates the actual surface area, it permits us to compare BCA size distributions among themselves and with other types of aerosols. When statistically justified, we fit lognormal distributions to the data points to determine number concentrations, geometric mean radii, standard deviations, BCA surface areas and volumes. Results to date permit the following conclusions: (1) BCA concentration in the northern stratosphere averages 0.6 ng per cubic meters. This amount is one part in 10(exp 4) after a volcanic eruption (e.g., Pinatubo) increasing to about one percent during volcanic quiescence. In the northern troposphere, BCA concentration averages 3.2 ng per cubic meters, or 0.3 percent of the background aerosol. (2) Applying an BCA emission index EI(BCA)=5 x 10(exp -5), measured in the exhaust wake of a Concorde supersonic jet aircraft, to realistic estimates of fuel burnt by the current and projected fleets permits us to conclude that: (i) Most BCA in the northern stratosphere results from aircraft emissions; (ii) Most BCA in the northern troposphere results from other sources than aircraft; (iii) A projected supersonic fleet will increase the northern stratospheric BCA concentration by one order of magnitude, unless the emission index is substantially reduced. (3) A strong gradient between the northern and southern hemispheres indicates that mixing across the equator is greatly inhibited in relation to atmospheric residence times of BCA. (4) The single scatter albedo of BCA/"background" aerosol mixtures suggests a cooling effect for most of the globe; an exemption is the Arctic because of the high surface albedo of the snow/ice covered earth's surface.

Pueschel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Survey of the Frequency Dependent Latitudinal Distribution of the Fast Magnetosonic Wave Mode from Van Allen Probes Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument and Integrated Science Waveform Receiver Plasma Wave Analysis

We present a statistical survey of the latitudinal structure of the fast magnetosonic wave mode detected by the Van Allen Probes spanning the time interval of 21 September 2012 to 1 August 2014. We show that statistically, the latitudinal occurrence of the wave frequency (f) normalized by the local proton cyclotron frequency (f(sub cP)) has a distinct funnel-shaped appearance in latitude about the magnetic equator similar to that found in case studies. By comparing the observed E/B ratios with the model E/B ratio, using the observed plasma density and background magnetic field magnitude as input to the model E/B ratio, we show that this mode is consistent with the extra-ordinary (whistler) mode at wave normal angles (theta(sub k)) near 90 deg. Performing polarization analysis on synthetic waveforms composed from a superposition of extra-ordinary mode plane waves with theta(sub k) randomly chosen between 87 and 90 deg, we show that the uncertainty in the derived wave normal is substantially broadened, with a tail extending down to theta(sub k) of 60 deg, suggesting that another approach is necessary to estimate the true distribution of theta(sub k). We find that the histograms of the synthetically derived ellipticities and theta(sub k) are consistent with the observations of ellipticities and theta(sub k) derived using polarization analysis.We make estimates of the median equatorial theta(sub k) by comparing observed and model ray tracing frequency-dependent probability occurrence with latitude and give preliminary frequency dependent estimates of the equatorial theta(sub k) distribution around noon and 4 R(sub E), with the median of approximately 4 to 7 deg from 90 deg at f/f(sub cP) = 2 and dropping to approximately 0.5 deg from 90 deg at f/f(sub cP) = 30. The occurrence of waves in this mode peaks around noon near the equator at all radial distances, and we find that the overall intensity of these waves increases with AE*, similar to findings of other studies.

Boardsen, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Estimates of the low-level wind shear and turbulence in the vicinity of Kennedy International Airport on 24 June 1975

A study was conducted to estimate the type of wind and turbulence distributions which may have existed at the time of the crash of Eastern Airlines Flight 66 while attempting to land. A number of different wind and turbulence profiles are predicted for the site and date of the crash. The morning and mid-afternoon predictions are in reasonably good agreement with magnitude and direction as reported by the weather observer. Although precise predictions cannot be made during the passage of the thunderstorm which coincides with the time of the accident, a number of different profiles which might exist under or in the vicinity of a thunderstorm are presented. The profile that is most probable predicts the mean headwind shear over 100 m (300 feet) altitude change and the average fluctuations about the mean headwind distribution. This combination of means and fluctuations leads to a reasonable probability that the instantaneous headwind shear would equal the maximum value reported in the flight recorder data.

Lewellen, W. S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exact and Approximate Probabilistic Symbolic Execution

Probabilistic software analysis seeks to quantify the likelihood of reaching a target event under uncertain environments. Recent approaches compute probabilities of execution paths using symbolic execution, but do not support nondeterminism. Nondeterminism arises naturally when no suitable probabilistic model can capture a program behavior, e.g., for multithreading or distributed systems. In this work, we propose a technique, based on symbolic execution, to synthesize schedulers that resolve nondeterminism to maximize the probability of reaching a target event. To scale to large systems, we also introduce approximate algorithms to search for good schedulers, speeding up established random sampling and reinforcement learning results through the quantification of path probabilities based on symbolic execution. We implemented the techniques in Symbolic PathFinder and evaluated them on nondeterministic Java programs. We show that our algorithms significantly improve upon a state-of- the-art statistical model checking algorithm, originally developed for Markov Decision Processes.

Symbolic Execution↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Warming Reduces the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

In the literature, dry land surface conditions possess a well-established association with extreme heat and high atmospheric aridity, especially in regions that experience strong land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, few studies have examined whether global warming will impact the ability of wet conditions to constrain high temperatures and atmospheric aridity occurrences. Here we investigate how wet conditions, which we define using precipitation and soil moisture, constrain high temperature and high vapor pressure deficit during the warm season over the Central Plains in North America at different global warming levels (0-3 degrees K). Using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we show that absolute changes in the maximum temperature distribution outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation or soil moisture conditions, reducing the probability of non-extreme maximum temperatures under global warming. Strikingly, the conditional likelihood of non-extreme maximum temperatures falls from 97-98% at baseline conditions to 50-58% at 1 degree of global warming. Once 2 degrees of warming is reached, there is very little probability of constraining extreme maximum temperatures. On the other hand, high precipitation and high soil moisture are able to better retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions – moving from 99% at baseline conditions to 81-91% at 1 degree of warming and 26-42% at 2 degrees of warming. With our results, we find that the extent of this retention is dependent on how individual models represent relative changes in the VPD distribution as temperatures warm. Overall, our results highlight the growing vulnerability of the Central North American region to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Extreme heat↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evolution of EF-hand calcium-modulated proteins. IV. Exon shuffling did not determine the domain compositions of EF-hand proteins

In the previous three reports in this series we demonstrated that the EF-hand family of proteins evolved by a complex pattern of gene duplication, transposition, and splicing. The dendrograms based on exon sequences are nearly identical to those based on protein sequences for troponin C, the essential light chain myosin, the regulatory light chain, and calpain. This validates both the computational methods and the dendrograms for these subfamilies. The proposal of congruence for calmodulin, troponin C, essential light chain, and regulatory light chain was confirmed. There are, however, significant differences in the calmodulin dendrograms computed from DNA and from protein sequences. In this study we find that introns are distributed throughout the EF-hand domain and the interdomain regions. Further, dendrograms based on intron type and distribution bear little resemblance to those based on protein or on DNA sequences. We conclude that introns are inserted, and probably deleted, with relatively high frequency. Further, in the EF-hand family exons do not correspond to structural domains and exon shuffling played little if any role in the evolution of this widely distributed homolog family. Calmodulin has had a turbulent evolution. Its dendrograms based on protein sequence, exon sequence, 3'-tail sequence, intron sequences, and intron positions all show significant differences.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1986

The X-ray surface brightness distribution and spectral properties of six early-type galaxies

Detailed analysis is presented of the Einstein X-ray observations of six early-type galaxies. The results show that effective cooling is probably present in these systems, at least in the innermost regions. Interaction with the surrounding medium has a major effect on the X-ray surface brightness distribution at large radii, at least for galaxies in clusters. The data do not warrant the general assumptions of isothermality and gravitational hydrostatic equilibrium at large radii. Comparison of the X-ray surface brightness profiles with model predictions indicate that 1/r-squared halos with masses of the order of 10 times the stellar masses are required to match the data. The physical model of White and Chevalier (1984) for steady cooling flows in a King law potential with no heavy halo gives a surface brightness distribution that resembles the data if supernovae heating is present.

Trinchieri, G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Aerosol properties computed from aircraft-based observations during the ACE- Asia campaign: A case study of lidar ratio closure and aerosol radiative effects - 2

For a vertical profile with three distinct layers (marine boundary, pollution and dust), observed during the ACE-Asia campaign, we carried out a comparison between the modeled lidar ratio vertical profile and that obtained from collocated airborne NASA AATS-14 sunphotometer and shipborne Micro-Pulse Lidar (MPL) measurements. Vertically resolved lidar ratio was calculated from two size distribution vertical profiles - one obtained by inversion of sunphotometer-derived extinction spectra, and one measured in-situ - combined with the same refractive index model based on aerosol chemical composition. The aerosol model implies single scattering albedos of 0.78 - 0.81 and 0.93 - 0.96 at 0.523 microns (the wavelength of the lidar measurements), in the pollution and dust layers, respectively. The lidar ratios calculated from the two size distribution profiles have close values in the dust layer; they are however, significantly lower than the lidar ratios derived from combined lidar and sunphotometer measurements, most probably due to the use of a simple nonspherical model with a single particle shape in our calculations. In the pollution layer, the two size distribution profiles yield generally different lidar ratios. The retrieved size distributions yield a lidar ratio which is in better agreement with that derived from lidar/sunphotometer measurements in this layer, with still large differences at certain altitudes (the largest relative difference was 46%). We explain these differences by non-uniqueness of the result of the size distribution retrieval and lack of information on vertical variability of particle refractive index. Radiative transfer calculations for this profile showed significant atmospheric radiative forcing, which occurred mainly in the pollution layer. We demonstrate that if the extinction profile is known then information on the vertical structure of absorption and asymmetry parameter is not significant for estimating forcing at TOA and the surface, while it is of importance for estimating vertical profiles of radiative forcing and heating rates.

Kuzmanoski, Maja↗