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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Studying fast-ion populations using oscillations in solid-state neutral-particle analyzer signal and neutral-beam injection power

A method for determining the fast-ion population density in magnetically confined plasmas as a function of pitch-radius, (λ, R), using a solid-state neutral-particle analyzer (ssNPA) signal and neutral-beam injection (NBI) power-output data has been developed. Oscillations in the NBI power output are replicated only in the active part of the ssNPA signal, allowing this to be separated from the passive and background signals, which usually complicate data from this diagnostic. Results obtained using this method are compared with those from standard techniques using data from the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak Upgrade spherical tokamak.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

2023 Risk Management Plan and Register for Low-Power WEC for Non-Grid Applications

This is an updated risk management plan and risk register for the design, build and test of a novel, remote, low-power wave energy converter (WEC) for non-grid applications. This Columbia Power Technologies project seeks to develop a prototype low-power WEC that lowers the total cost of ownership and provides robust, new capabilities for customers in the maritime environment. The testing location for this prototype is the U.S. Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) in Kaneohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i. Detailed in the Risk Management Plan document is a Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMEC) that systematically identifies all potential failure modes and their effects on the system. Risk registers for major subsystems were completed according to the methodology described in the Risk Management Plan and are also included here.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Rapid Construction of Validated Chemistry Models for Advanced Biofuels (Co-Optima Final Report)

Computer methods were developed and demonstrated that make it possible to predict the combustion and pyrolysis chemistry of proposed biofuels, even before the biofuels are ever manufactured or experimentally tested. The methods are based on first-principles calculations of reaction rates and equilibria. A large number of complicated calculations are required, so we developed a computer workflow that automates many of the steps. With the chemical structure of the biofuel and the system conditions (temperature, pressure, compositions, etc.) as the input, the computer methods can construct a detailed kinetic model with refined parameters without intense human intervention. The automation of model construction makes it practical for a single engineer to make the predictions in a reasonable time period. The accuracy of the computer predictions was tested by measuring the time-profiles of various reaction intermediates (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, water, formaldehyde, methane, and ethylene) formed as the biofuels pyrolyze or ignite using sophisticated laser shock tube methods. Several biofuels, including methyl propyl ether, cyclopentanone, butyl acetate isomers, etc., were carefully studied to demonstrate the validity of the proposed computational and experimental methodology. This research project opens up the possibility for assessing some proposed biofuels on the computer without expensive experimental campaigns. The new computer methods are open source and well-documented, allowing a knowledgeable modeler to easily access the developed methods and implement them in their work routine. Moreover, they are also convenient and powerful, promising for developing the fuel chemistry models needed for use in engine simulators, facilitating co-optimization of new engine designs with new fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Radiation-driven MHD systems for space applications

High-power radiation such as concentrated solar or high-power laser radiation is considered as a driver for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) systems which could be developed for efficient power generation and propulsion in space. Eight different systems are conceivable since the MHD systems can be classified in two: plasma and liquid-metal MHD's. Each of these systems is reviewed and solar- (or laser-) driven MHD thrusters are proposed.

Lee, J. H.↗

Performance of Surface-Mount Ceramic and Solid Tantalum Capacitors for Cryogenic Applications

Low temperature electronics are of great interest for space exploration programs. These include missions to the outer planets, earth-orbiting and deep-space probes, remote-sensing and communication satellites. Terrestrial applications would also benefit from the availability of low temperature electronics. Power components capable of low temperature operation would, thus, enhance the technologies needed for the development of advanced power systems suitable for use in harsh environments. In this work, ceramic and solid tantalum capacitors were evaluated in terms of their dielectric properties as a function of temperature and at various frequencies. The surface-mount devices were characterized in terms of their capacitance stability and dissipation factor in the frequency range of 50 Hz to 100 kHz at temperatures ranging from room temperature (20 deg. C) to about liquid nitrogen temperature (-190 deg. C). The results are discussed and conclusions made concerning the suitability of the capacitors investigated for low temperature applications.

Patterson, Richard L.↗

Performance of Power Converters at Cryogenic Temperatures

Power converters capable of operation at cryogenic temperatures are anticipated to play an important role in the power system architecture of future NASA deep space missions. Design of such converters to survive cryogenic temperatures will improve the power system performance and reduce development and launch costs. Aerospace power systems are mainly a DC distribution network. Therefore, DC/DC and DC/AC converters provide the outputs needed to different loads at various power levels. Recently, research efforts have been performed at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to design and evaluate DC/DC converters that are capable of operating at cryogenic temperatures. This paper presents a summary of the research performed to evaluate the low temperature performance of five DC/DC converters. Various parameters were investigated as a function of temperature in the range of 20 to -196 C. Data pertaining to the output voltage regulation and efficiency of the converters is presented and discussed.

Elbuluk, Malik E.↗

High voltage and current, gate assisted, turn-off thyristor development

An improved high speed power switch with unique turn-off capability was developed. This gate assisted turn-off thyristor (GATT) was rated 1000 volts and 100 amperes with turn-off times of 2 microseconds. Fifty units were delivered for evaluation. In addition, test circuits designed to relate to the series inverter application were built and demonstrated. In the course of this work it was determined that the basic device design is adequate to meet the static characteristics and dynamic turn-off specification. It was further determined that the turn-on specification is critically dependent on the gate drive circuit due to the distributive nature of the cathode-gate geometry. Future work should emphasize design modifications which reduce the gate current required for fast turn-on, thereby opening the way to higher power (current) devices.

Nowalk, T. P.↗

Stirling Convertor Controller Development at NASA Glenn Research Center

For nearly two decades, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting the development of Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). NASA desires higher conversion efficiency RPS options that are reliable and robust with long life design. Dynamic conversion, such as Stirling and Brayton, offer the potential for higher conversion efficiencies than current RPS but have yet to be demonstrated in a flight application. The RPS program sent out a solicitation to investigate options for dynamic conversion technologies. As a result of this solicitation, four dynamic power convertor (DPC) technologies were selected for design and three are proceeding to the fabrication phase of prototype dynamic convertors. One lesson learned from the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) project is that controller development should be coordinated with the development of a dynamic convertor. As a result of this, NASA GRC has been utilizing hardware from past Stirling convertor projects including that of the ASRG to support controller development for the DPC's. NASA GRC has developed a strong knowledge base on both analog and digital Stirling dynamic power convertor controllers and will continue to expand and apply that knowledge to the DPC's. Over the past 15 years, controllers were developed at GRC, at Lockheed Martin (LM) and by the Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL). Various generations of the controllers have been developed as lessons were learned through various component and system level tests. Some of the tests performed were fault tolerance, flight acceptance vibration, electromagnetic interference (EMI), spacecraft integration, and extended operation. The fault tolerance test characterized the controller's ability to handle various fault conditions, including high or low bus power consumptions, total open load or short circuit, and replacing a failed controller card while the backup maintains control of the Stirling convertor. The vibration test confirms the controller's ability to control an ASC during launch. The EMI test characterized the AC and DC magnetic and electric fields emitted by the single ASC and if the controller has an impact on the radiated EMI. Spacecraft integration testing in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory (RSIL) provided insight into the electrical interactions between the representative RPS, its associated control schemes, and realistic electric system loads. The extended operation test allows data to be collected over a period of thousands of hours to obtain long term performance data of the system. This paper describes the history of controller development at NASA GRC, tests performed on these controllers, and lessons learned.

Dugala, Gina M.↗

Century: Zap Energy’s 100-kW-Scale Repetitive Sheared-Flow-Stabilized Z -Pinch System with Liquid Metal Cooling

Zap Energy is developing the sheared-flow-stabilized (SFS) Z-pinch concept for commercial applications. The SFS Z pinch relies on plasma self-organization, in the sense that plasma dynamics play a critical role in confinement. Using plasma axial current for confinement and compression eliminates the need for external confinement or heating technologies. This compact magnetic confinement technology could, in turn, provide the basis for a cost-effective deuterium-tritium fusion power plant. In addition to a robust experimental program pushing plasma performance towards breakeven conditions, Zap Energy has parallel programs developing power handling systems suitable for future power plants. Technologies under development include high average-power repetitive pulsed power, high duty-cycle cathodes, and liquid metal wall systems. Century is the name of Zap Energy’s first effort to integrate these three components into an operational system capable of firing non-reacting hydrogen SFS Z-pinch plasmas into a liquid-metal-lined container at sustained repetition rates on the order of 0.1 Hz. Here, the pulsed power driver and liquid metal heat exchanger are both designed to sustain input powers of 100 kW. Construction and initial operations with an interim ~10 kW liquid metal heat exchanger are described.

Century↗

Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power for Future Space Science Missions

High efficiency dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) could be mission enabling for low power space applications such as small probes, landers rovers, and communication repeaters. These applications would contain science instruments and be distributed across planetary surfaces or near objects of interest where solar flux is insufficient for using solar cells. Small RPS could be used to provide power for sensing radiation, temperature, pressure, seismic activity, and other measurements of interest to planetary scientists. Small RPS would use fractional versions of the General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) or Light Weight Radioisotope Heater Units (LWRHU), to heat power conversion technologies. Dynamic power systems are capable of three to four times higher conversion efficiency compared to static power conversion technologies, and would provide an equal amount of power using less fuel or more power using an equal amount of fuel. Providing spacecraft with more power could decrease duty cycling of basic functions and, therefore, increase the quality and abundance of science data. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is developing a low power dynamic RPS that would convert heat from multiple LWRHU to one watt of usable direct current electric power for spacecraft instrumentation and communication. The power system could be used to charge batteries or capacitors for higher power burst usage. The initial design, called Small Stirling Technology Exploration Power (smallSTEP), is around 3 kg, 11 cm diameter X 32 cm long, and converts 8 watts of heat to one watt of electricity using a Stirling convertor. This low power conversion system represents a new class of RPS with power levels two orders of magnitude lower than prototypes currently being developed for space applications under NASA contracts. Development of the 1-watt RPS includes maturation of convertor and controller designs, performance evaluation of an evacuated metal foil insulation, and development of system interfaces. Initial demonstration of the subsystems has been completed in a laboratory environment and a higher fidelity system is being pursued for demonstration in relevant environments for use on small spacecraft needed to carry out future space science missions.

Wilson, Scott↗

Highlights of NASA/DOE photovoltaic market assessment visit to Morocco

A broad range of agricultural, rural development, and other power applications in various regions of Morocco were examined to determine the potential market for photovoltaic products in Moroccan development. The primary focus of the study was the agriculture sector which accounts for approximately 17% of the country's GNP. The country has a clear need for reliable remote power systems, but does not have the financial resources to invest in the relatively high capital cost PV equipment. A modest potential for PV use was identified in nonagricultural rural services, such as refrigerators for rural clinics and rural radio-telephones. The main potential for PV in Morocco in the next five years lies mainly in the telecommunications sector. Applications include rural TV sets, TV repeater stations, microwave relay stations, and railroad, marine, and airline signalling. Market size estimates were derived from development and expansion plans. At an average customer cost for complete installed systems from $18/Wp to $30/Wp the total potential market value is estimated in the range of $6.6 to $11 million over the 1981-1986 period.

Source record↗

User interface design principles for the SSM/PMAD automated power system

Martin Marietta has developed a user interface for the space station module power management and distribution (SSM/PMAD) automated power system testbed which provides human access to the functionality of the power system, as well as exemplifying current techniques in user interface design. The testbed user interface was designed to enable an engineer to operate the system easily without having significant knowledge of computer systems, as well as provide an environment in which the engineer can monitor and interact with the SSM/PMAD system hardware. The design of the interface supports a global view of the most important data from the various hardware and software components, as well as enabling the user to obtain additional or more detailed data when needed. The components and representations of the SSM/PMAD testbed user interface are examined. An engineer's interactions with the system are also described.

Jakstas, Laura M.↗

Discrete Random Media Techniques for Microwave Modeling of Vegetated Terrain

Microwave modeling of vegetated terrain was investigated. The purpose was to: (1) use discrete scatter theory to model vegetation (crops and forested regions) in microwave region; (2) develop models for scatterers and ground; (3) multiple scattering analysis relate model parameters to average scattered power; and (4) develop inversion techniques to remotely determine model parameters.

Lang, R. H.↗

The 5-kW arcjet power electronics

The initial design and evaluation of a 5 kW arcjet power electronics breadboard which as been integrated with a modified 1 kW design laboratory arcjet is presented. A single stage, 5 kW full bridge, pulse width modulated (PWM), power converter was developed which was phase shift regulated. The converter used metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) power switches and incorporated current mode control and an integral arcjet pulse ignition circuit. The unoptimized power efficiency was 93.5 and 93.9 percent at 5 kW and 50A output at input voltages of 130 and 150V, respectively. Line and load current regulation at 50A output was within one percent. The converter provided up to 6.6 kW to the arcjet with simulated ammonia used as a propellant.

Gruber, R. P.↗

5-kW arcjet power electronics

The initial design and evaluation of a 5 kW arcjet power electronics breadboard which as been integrated with a modified 1 kW design laboratory arcjet is presented. A single stage, 5 kW full bridge, pulse width modulated (PWM), power converter was developed which was phase shift regulated. The converter used metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) power switches and incorporated current mode control and an integral arcjet pulse ignition circuit. The unoptimized power efficiency was 93.5 and 93.9 percent at 5 kW and 50A output at input voltages of 130 and 150V, respectively. Line and load current regulation at 50A output was within one percent. The converter provided up to 6.6 kW to the arcjet with simulated ammonia used as a propellant.

Gruber, R. P.↗

Coordinated Fuel Cell System Programs for Government and Commercial Applications: Are We in a New Era?

Though the fuel cell was invented in 1839, it was not until the early 1960's that the fuel cell power system was developed and used for a real application, for the NASA Space Mission Gemini. Unfortunately, fuel cell power systems did not, as a result, become in widespread use. Nevertheless, a great deal of progress has been made by both government and industry, culminating in many successful fuel cell power system demonstrations. Initially, each government agency and each private organization went its own way. Later, it became evident that coordination among programs was essential. An overview is presented of the current coordinated efforts by government and industry in fuel cells, with a sufficient historical background. The primary barriers to coordination of programs were institutional and differing application requirements. Initially, in the institutional area, it was the energy crisis and the formation of DOE which fostered close working relationships among government, manufacturers, and users. The authors discuss the fuel cell power system programs (of NASA, DOE, DOT, DOC, EPRI, GRI, industry, and universities), including missions and applications, technology advances, and demonstrations. The discussion covers the new Solar Regenerative Fuel Cell (RFC) program which has space, defense, and commercial terrestrial applications, and which is an excellent example of both program coordination and the Clinton Administration's dual-use application policy.

Warshay, Marvin↗