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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of the Mw7.2 1992 Landers,California, Earthquake

An important part of the simulation technique implemented in the Recipe is the earthquake rupture characterization based on established empirical scaling relationships between source parameters and seismic moment. The scaling relationships used in the rupture characterization are derived from recorded data and are tested against dynamic and kinematic rupture models of crustal earthquakes. Currently, a revised three-stage source scaling relationship between the source rupture area and seismic moment of inland crustal earthquakes, initially proposed by Irikura and Miyake, is being used. Recent analysis of results obtained with the Recipe for the 2016 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake performed by several researchers, including the PI, Arben Pitarka, indicate that in order to reproduce the near-fault long-period ground motions and the permanent displacements, observed during surface-rupturing earthquakes, the recipe needs modifications to the kinematic rupture parametrization in the shallow crustal weak zone. In particular, improvements are required in characterizing the slip rate function at shallow depths, above the sesimogenic zone. The main objective of this research project was the development of a dynamic rupture model for the Mw7.2 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The dynamic rupture model was used to derive kinematic rupture parameters, such as slip, slip-rate, rupture time distributions, and slip rate functions in the weak (0-4km) and seismogenic crustal zones. In addition to the knowledge gained from the dynamic rupture modeling of Chi-chi, Ridgecrest, Kumamoto and other crustal earthquakes, studied by the PI, the rupture characterization of the Landers earthquake can be helpful in updating the conventional recipe for broadband ground motion simulations of crustal earthquakes with shallow rupture. The project emphasizes the need for performing physics-based earthquake rupture modeling which ultimately will inform further improvements of rupture characterization. In particular, the modeling of rupture dynamics for recorded earthquakes, and numerical simulations for different rupture scenarios, provides physical constrains on slip evolution in time and space, used in adjustments of empirical source scaling relationships for large crustal earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uncertainty quantification for equations of state: copper as an example

Equations of state are essential for providing a fundamental description of materials properties in thermodynamic equilibrium and are used to provide closure relations for hydrodynamics simulations. Generally, equations of state rely on simple physics-based parameterized materials models to inform on the free energy of a material through out a given thermodynamic state space. Historically the parameters of these models have been tuned by hand to fit various experimental data. However, modern optimization and uncertainty quantification techniques allow us to quickly test thousands of parameter combinations and obtain meaningful uncertainty estimates on the parameters, opening opportunities for assessing systematic uncertainties in experiments, assessing model adequacy, and more. In this report, we use Bayesian inference to fit the solid (fcc) equation of state of copper. We focus on fitting five different experimental datasets, including the isobaric density, isobaric heat capacity, room temperature isotherm, principal isentrope, and principal Hugoniot. We fit all five data types simultaneously, and then explore the extent to which combinations of 2 subsets of the 5 datasets can constrain the EOS parameters, as compared to the fit to all 5. This information is useful for investigating the extent to which different datasets can con strain EOS models and thereby help guide experimental investigations in order to best constrain the EOS. We also discuss ways that the methodologies can be used to investigate systematic discrepancies between experiments, as well as how the methods can be used to assess model uncertainty. The framework we develop is general, in that it can be used with a variety of optimization or uncertainty quantification techniques and with a variety of data sources, including both experimental and ab-inito data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of Energy Storage and Arbitrage Options for Nuclear Power

Nuclear power is the most reliable source of clean energy and plays a crucial role in decarbonization efforts and national energy security. Achievement of Net-Zero targets depends on the deployment of new Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) – both advanced reactors and large-scale Light-Water Reactors (LWRs) – as well as continuing operations at existing LWR plants. The Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program seeks to extend the lifetime of existing NPPs and improve their economic performance through research into plant modernization, Flexible Plant Operation and Generation (FPOG), risk-informed systems analysis, materials research, and physical security. The FPOG pathway investigates alternative revenue streams for LWRs. When electricity prices are driven low by an oversupply of renewable energy, steam and electricity from an NPP can be used to make value-added products while taking advantage of the low energy price; alternatively, this cheap energy can be stored chemically, electrically, or thermally, and used to regenerate-generate electricity at a later time when energy demand, and therefore the wholesale price of electricity, is higher in an economic concept called arbitrage. The purpose of this report is to investigate energy storage technologies that can store 500 MW of electricity from an LWR for a wide spectrum of durations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Assessing and Enabling Trustworthy Predictions for High-Consequence Decisions

Predictions from physics-based computational models provide critical information to inform high consequence decisions, e.g., engineering design decisions. The ability to assess the reliability of such predictions is therefore critical. However, to date, reliability assessment rely heavily on expert judgment and qualitative arguments. This report details the efforts of LDRD 233072 to develop quantitative methods to assess reliability of model predictions, especially in the context of simplifying assumptions that can impact their reliability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Non-trivial symmetries in quantum landscapes and their resilience to quantum noise

Very little is known about the cost landscape for parametrized Quantum Circuits (PQCs). Nevertheless, PQCs are employed in Quantum Neural Networks and Variational Quantum Algorithms, which may allow for near-term quantum advantage. Such applications require good optimizers to train PQCs. Recent works have focused on quantum-aware optimizers specifically tailored for PQCs. However, ignorance of the cost landscape could hinder progress towards such optimizers. In this work, we analytically prove two results for PQCs: (1) We find an exponentially large symmetry in PQCs, yielding an exponentially large degeneracy of the minima in the cost landscape. Alternatively, this can be cast as an exponential reduction in the volume of relevant hyperparameter space. (2) We study the resilience of the symmetries under noise, and show that while it is conserved under unital noise, non-unital channels can break these symmetries and lift the degeneracy of minima, leading to multiple new local minima. Based on these results, we introduce an optimization method called Symmetry-based Minima Hopping (SYMH), which exploits the underlying symmetries in PQCs. Our numerical simulations show that SYMH improves the overall optimizer performance in the presence of non-unital noise at a level comparable to current hardware. Overall, this work derives large-scale circuit symmetries from local gate transformations, and uses them to construct a noise-aware optimization method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards

Due to the complex interactions of human activity and the hydrological cycle, achieving urban water security requires comprehensive planning processes that address urban water hazards using a holistic approach. However, the effective implementation of such an approach requires the collection and curation of large amounts of disparate data, and reliable methods for modeling processes that may be co-evolutionary yet traditionally represented in non-integrable ways. In recent decades, many hydrological studies have utilized advanced machine learning and information technologies to approximate and predict physical processes, yet none have synthesized these methods into a comprehensive urban water security plan. In this paper, we review ways in which advanced machine learning techniques have been applied to specific aspects of the hydrological cycle and discuss their potential applications for addressing challenges in mitigating multiple water hazards over urban areas. We also describe a vision that integrates these machine learning applications into a comprehensive watershed-to-community planning workflow for smart-cities management of urban water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prognosis of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data

Predictive maintenance and condition monitoring systems for wind turbines have seen increased adoption to minimize downtime, reducing operation and maintenance costs. On today’s wind power plants, the integrated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system provides low- frequency operational data that can be leveraged to quantify a wind turbine’s health. The aim of this study is to utilize machine-learning techniques to predict axial cracking failures in wind turbine gearbox bearings up to 1 month ahead of time. The failures are assumed to have occurred when the investigated bearing was replaced. While current SCADA systems show the overall condition of a wind turbine, often they do not allow for the investigation of specific gearbox bearings’ health. To enrich bearing fault signatures, additional data are computed through physics-based models using gearbox design information. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score. Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision and F1 score is about 33% and 12% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

exoALMA. V. Gaseous Emission Surfaces and Temperature Structures

An analysis of the gaseous component in protoplanetary disks can inform us about their thermal and physical structure, chemical composition, and kinematic properties, all of which are crucial for understanding various processes within the disks. By exploiting the asymmetry of the line emission, or via line profile analysis, we can locate the emitting surfaces. Here, we present the emission surfaces of the exoALMA sources in 12 CO J = 3–2, 13 CO J = 3–2, and CS J = 7–6. We find that 12 CO traces the upper disk atmosphere, with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.28, while 13 CO and CS trace lower regions of the disk with mean $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ values of ≈0.16 and ≈0.18, respectively. We find that 12 CO $\langle$ z/r $\rangle$ and the disk mass are positively correlated with each other; this relationship offers a straightforward way to infer the disk mass. We derive 2D r – z temperature distributions of the disks. Additionally, we search for substructure in the surfaces and radial intensity profiles; we find evidence of localized substructure in the emission surfaces and peak intensity profiles of nearly every disk, with this substructure often being coincident between molecular tracers, intensity profiles, and kinematic perturbations. Four disks display evidence of potential photodesorption, implying that this effect may be common even in low far-ultraviolet star-forming regions. For most disks, we find that the physical and thermal structure is more complex than analytical models can account for, highlighting a need for more theoretical work and a better understanding of the role of projection effects on our observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Complexity-theoretic foundations of BosonSampling with a linear number of modes

BosonSampling is the leading candidate for demonstrating quantum computational advantage in photonic systems. While we have recently seen many impressive experimental demonstrations, there is still a formidable distance between the complexity-theoretic hardness arguments and current experiments. One of the largest gaps involves the ratio of {particles} to modes -- all current hardness evidence assumes a dilute regime in which the number of linear optical modes scales at least quadratically in the number of particles. By contrast, current experiments operate in a saturated regime with a linear number of modes. In this paper we bridge this gap, bringing the hardness evidence for experiments in the saturated regime to the same level as had been previously established for the dilute regime. This involves proving a new worst-to-average-case reduction for computing the Permanent which is robust to both large numbers of row repetitions and also to distributions over matrices with correlated entries. We also apply similar arguments to give evidence for hardness of Gaussian BosonSampling in the saturated regime.

Computational Complexity (cs.CC)↗

Pseudorandomness from Subset States

We show it is possible to obtain quantum pseudorandomness and pseudoentanglement from random subset states -- i.e. quantum states which are equal superpositions over (pseudo)random subsets of strings. This answers an open question of Aaronson et al. [arXiv:2211.00747], who devised a similar construction augmented by pseudorandom phases. Our result follows from a direct calculation of the trace distance between t copies of random subset states and the Haar measure, via the representation theory of the symmetric group. We show that the trace distance is negligibly small, as long as the subsets are of an appropriate size which is neither too big nor too small. In particular, we analyze the action of basis permutations on the symmetric subspace, and show that the largest component is described by the Johnson scheme: the double-cosets of the symmetric group S N by the subgroup S t x S N-t . The Gelfand pair property of this setting implies that the matrix eigenbasis coincides with the symmetric group irreducible blocks, with the largest eigenblock asymptotically approaching the Haar average. An immediate corollary of our result is that quantum pseudorandom and pseudoentangled state ensembles do not require relative phases.

Computational Complexity (cs.CC)↗

On the hardness of learning ground state entanglement of geometrically local Hamiltonians

Characterizing the entanglement structure of ground states of local Hamiltonians is a fundamental problem in quantum information. In this work we study the computational complexity of this problem, given the Hamiltonian as input. Our main result is that to show it is cryptographically hard to determine if the ground state of a geometrically local, polynomially gapped Hamiltonian on qudits (d=O(1)) has near-area law vs near-volume law entanglement. This improves prior work of Bouland et al. (arXiv:2311.12017) showing this for non-geometrically local Hamiltonians. In particular we show this problem is roughly factoring-hard in 1D, and LWE-hard in 2D. Our proof works by constructing a novel form of public-key pseudo-entanglement which is highly space-efficient, and combining this with a modification of Gottesman and Irani's quantum Turing machine to Hamiltonian construction. Our work suggests that the problem of learning so-called "gapless" quantum phases of matter might be intractable.

Computational Complexity (cs.CC)↗

Global Framework for Emulation of Nuclear Calculations

We introduce a hierarchical framework that combines ab initio many-body calculations with a Bayesian neural network, developing emulators capable of accurately predicting nuclear properties across isotopic chains simultaneously and being applicable to different regions of the nuclear chart. We benchmark our developments using the oxygen isotopic chain, achieving accurate results for ground-state energies and nuclear charge radii, while providing robust uncertainty quantification. Our framework enables global sensitivity analysis of nuclear binding energies and charge radii with respect to the low-energy constants that describe the nuclear force.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark -- A Bayesian Inverse UQ-based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. When comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that GLLS predictions fail to replicate computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA shows near agreement, and IUQ uses computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

hls4ml: A Flexible, Open-Source Platform for Deep Learning Acceleration on Reconfigurable Hardware

We present hls4ml, a free and open-source platform that translates machine learning (ML) models from modern deep learning frameworks into high-level synthesis (HLS) code that can be integrated into full designs for field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) or application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). With its flexible and modular design, hls4ml supports a large number of deep learning frameworks and can target HLS compilers from several vendors, including Vitis HLS, Intel oneAPI and Catapult HLS. Together with a wider eco-system for software-hardware co-design, hls4ml has enabled the acceleration of ML inference in a wide range of commercial and scientific applications where low latency, resource usage, and power consumption are critical. In this paper, we describe the structure and functionality of the hls4ml platform. The overarching design considerations for the generated HLS code are discussed, together with selected performance results.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

Idealized simulations of wind farm interactions with intermittent turbulence in stable boundary layer conditions

Stable atmospheric boundary layer conditions typically correspond to weak turbulence levels, but intermittent periods of elevated turbulence can occur during otherwise quiescent conditions. The interaction between intermittent turbulence and wind turbines is not well understood because of sparse observations, as well as the difficulty in realistically resolving small-scale turbulence during strongly stable conditions with numerical simulations. In this study, an explicit filtering and reconstruction approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to simulate weakly and strongly stable conditions, with surface cooling rates of −0.2 and −2.0 K h −1 , respectively. This approach can sustain resolved background turbulence at relatively coarse grid spacing and stronger stratification compared to conventional closures, permitting more realistic intermittent stable boundary layer (SBL) turbulence. The idealized LES capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed with turbine rotors parameterized using generalized actuator disks to examine (1) how the presence of turbine wakes affects SBL evolution and (2) the effect of intermittent turbulence on power production and wake recovery. Wakes increase mixing and deepen the SBL, with a stronger effect under strongly stable conditions, primarily because the SBL is shallower and closer to the top of the wind turbine rotor layer. Intermittent turbulence does not have a significant impact on mean power generation and wake recovery because the relevant intermittent turbulent structures in this study only affect the bottom half of the rotor disk. Power production is, however, more variable during periods of elevated turbulence, demonstrating the impact of SBL intermittency. This study uses an idealized configuration, focusing on LES model performance and physical understanding, with the goal of informing future simulations of the conditions observed during the American Wake Experiment.

Energy - Wind↗

Enabling Computation on Sensitive Data in International Safeguards with Privacy-Preserving Encryption Techniques

Privacy-preserving machine learning is a field of study that explores how to protect and preserve the privacy of sensitive data while allowing the data to be used by machine learning algorithms. This field has had substantial industry investment due to heightened concerns about privacy in the technology industry, with a focus in two broad application areas: financial services and healthcare. Numerous privacy-preserving methods have also been proposed for international safeguards, but they have been difficult to enact because the data they require is con- sidered sensitive or proprietary by the nuclear facility operator. This work examines how current privacy-preserving approaches might be used to enable the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to use that data to contribute to a safeguards conclusion about a state while giving nuclear operators confidence that their sensitive data is adequately protected. This paper begins by exploring several broad categories of privacy-preserving techniques including homomorphic encryption, secure multiparty computation, secure enclaves, and zero-knowledge proofs. Then we discuss some of the security considerations related to using these methods, potential use cases, and a conceptual system design for applying privacy-preserving methods in international safeguards.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Recent Improvements in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) has significantly evolved since the first release of the point source database in 1993. The NSRDB has been widely used by the solar energy industry to provide long-term time-series solar resource data for various project phases. The NSRDB represents the state of the art in the satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that allows improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. This poster provides an overview of (1) the improved spatiotemporal resolution; (2) on-demand services and their applications; (3) future Improvements, such as a new direct normal irradiance model and new methods to gap-fill missing data using physics-guided machine learning; (4) data quality; and (5) data dissemination.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,SOLAR ENERGY↗