Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Performance Rating Method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,207 records · Page 67

TH-CD-209-01: A Greedy Reassignment Algorithm for the PBS Minimum Monitor Unit Constraint

Purpose: To investigate a Greedy Reassignment algorithm in order to mitigate the effects of low weight spots in proton pencil beam scanning (PBS) treatment plans. Methods: To convert a plan from the treatment planning system’s (TPS) to a deliverable plan, post processing methods can be used to adjust the spot maps to meets the minimum MU constraint. Existing methods include: deleting low weight spots (Cut method), or rounding spots with weight above/below half the limit up/down to the limit/zero (Round method). An alternative method called Greedy Reassignment was developed in this work in which the lowest weight spot in the field was removed and its weight reassigned equally among its nearest neighbors. The process was repeated with the next lowest weight spot until all spots in the field were above the MU constraint. The algorithm performance was evaluated using plans collected from 190 patients (496 fields) treated at our facility. The evaluation criteria were the γ-index pass rate comparing the pre-processed and post-processed dose distributions. A planning metric was further developed to predict the impact of post-processing on treatment plans for various treatment planning, machine, and dose tolerance parameters. Results: For fields with a gamma pass rate of 90±1%, the metric has a standard deviation equal to 18% of the centroid value. This showed that the metric and γ-index pass rate are correlated for the Greedy Reassignment algorithm. Using a 3rd order polynomial fit to the data, the Greedy Reassignment method had 1.8 times better metric at 90% pass rate compared to other post-processing methods. Conclusion: We showed that the Greedy Reassignment method yields deliverable plans that are closest to the optimized-without-MU-constraint plan from the TPS. The metric developed in this work could help design the minimum MU threshold with the goal of keeping the γ-index pass rate above an acceptable value.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Characterization of EJ-270 and Ce-doped LiCAF scintillators for the development of high-rate neutron reflectometer detectors

The Second Target Station of the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is anticipated to provide a neutron source with ∼20 times increase in peak brightness than the First Target Station. The neutron reflectometers currently in operation at the First Target Station need to be upgraded due to the increased neutron flux. A prototype neutron detector module based upon a pixelated scintillator array readout by silicon photomultipliers is being developed to address the high-rate challenge faced with future neutron reflectometer instruments at the Second Target Station. Two types of scintillator materials were considered for this detector development, i.e., 6 Li-loaded EJ-270 plastic scintillator and Ce-doped LiCAF single crystal. This paper reports the scintillator characterization results, including light yield, pulse shape discrimination performance, capability to detect thermal neutrons in a high γ-ray field, and γ-ray sensitivity. The number of photons produced per neutron capture by EJ-270 and LiCAF:Ce was measured to be 2176 ± 91 and 2651 ± 108, respectively. EJ-270 demonstrated a good capability to discriminate between neutrons and γ-rays by employing the commonly used charge comparison method (figure-of-merit: 1.13 ± 0.01 for an energy cut of 292–426 keVee) and a reasonable performance when using the time-over-threshold techniques; however, no discrimination was observed from LiCAF:Ce regardless of the pulse shape discrimination approaches utilized, making pulse height discrimination necessary for LiCAF:Ce to differentiate between neutrons and γ-rays. Both EJ-270 and LiCAF:Ce exhibited an acceptable capacity to detect thermal neutrons at high exposure rates up to approximately 584 mR/h. Furthermore, the γ-ray sensitivities measured with a 60 Co source at an exposure rate of around 1145 mR/h were determined to be (6.11 ± 0.87) × 10 −6 and (7.64 ± 1.08) × 10 −7 for EJ-270 and LiCAF:Ce, respectively.

EJ-270↗

Direct in situ measurements of electrical properties of solid–electrolyte interphase on lithium metal anodes

The solid–electrolyte interphase (SEI) critically governs the performance of rechargeable batteries. An ideal SEI is expected to be electrically insulative to prevent persistently parasitic reactions between the electrode and the electrolyte and ionically conductive to facilitate Faradaic reactions of the electrode. However, the true nature of the electrical properties of the SEI remains hitherto unclear due to the lack of a direct characterization method. Here we use in situ bias transmission electron microscopy to directly measure the electrical properties of SEIs formed on copper and lithium substrates. We reveal that SEIs show a voltage-dependent differential conductance. A higher rate of differential conductance induces a thicker SEI with an intricate topographic feature, leading to an inferior Coulombic efficiency and cycling stability in Li||Cu and Li||LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 cells. Further, our work provides insight into the targeted design of the SEI with desired characteristics towards better battery performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Patterns of Radiotherapy Practice for Patients With Cervical Cancer in Japan, 2003-2005: Changing Trends in the Pattern of Care Process

Purpose: The patterns of care study (PCS) of radiotherapy for cervical cancer in Japan over the last 10 years was reviewed. Methods and Materials: The Japanese PCS working group analyzed data from 1,200 patients (1995-1997, 591 patients; 1999-2001, 324 patients; 2003-2005, 285 patients) with cervical cancer treated with definitive radiotherapy in Japan. Results: Patients in the 2001-2003 survey were significantly younger than those in the 1999-2001 study (p < 0.0001). Histology, performance status, and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage were not significantly different among the three survey periods. Use of combinations of chemotherapy has increased significantly during those periods (1995-1997, 24%; 1999-2001, 33%; 2003-2005, 54%; p < 0.0001). The ratio of patients receiving concurrent chemotherapy has also dramatically increased (1995-1997, 20%; 1999-2001, 54%; 2003-2005, 83%; p < 0.0001). As for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), the application rate of four-field portals has greatly increased over the three survey periods (1995-1997, 2%; 1999-2001, 7%; 2003-2005, 21%; p < 0.0001). In addition, the use of an appropriate beam energy for EBRT has shown an increase (1995-1997, 67%; 1999-2001, 74%; 2003-2005, 81%; p = 0.064). As for intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT), an iridium source has become increasingly popular (1995-1997, 27%; 1999-2001, 42%; 2003-2005, 84%; p < 0.0001). Among the three surveys, the ratio of patients receiving ICBT (1995-1997, 77%; 1999-2001, 82%; 2003-2005, 78%) has not changed. Although follow-up was inadequate in each survey, no significant survival differences were observed (p = 0.36), and rates of late Grade 3 or higher toxicity were significantly different (p = 0.016). Conclusions: The Japanese PCS has monitored consistent improvements over the past 10 years in the application of chemotherapy, timing of chemotherapy, and EBRT methods. However, there is still room for improvement, especially in the clinical practice of ICBT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Rapid assessment of crystal orientation in semi-crystalline polymer films using rotational zone annealing and impact of orientation on mechanical properties

Crystal orientation in semi-crystalline polymers tends to enhance their performance, such as increased yield strength and modulus, along the orientation direction. Zone annealing (ZA) orients the crystal lamellae through a sharp temperature gradient that effectively directs the crystal growth, but the sweep rate (V ZA ) of this gradient significantly impacts the extent of crystal orientation. Here in this work, we demonstrate rotational zone annealing (RZA) as an efficient method to elucidate the influence of V ZA on the crystal morphology of thin films in a single experiment using isotactic poly(1-butene), PB-1, as a model semi-crystalline polymer. These RZA results are confirmed using standard, serial linear ZA to tune the structure from an almost unidirectional oriented morphology to weakly oriented spherulites. The overall crystallinity is only modestly changed in comparison to isothermal crystallization (maximum of 55% from ZA vs. 48% for isothermal crystallization). However, the average grain size increases and the spherulites become anisotropic from ZA. Due to these structural changes, the Young's modulus of the oriented films, both parallel and perpendicular to the spherulite orientation direction, is significantly increased by ZA. The modulus does become anisotropic after ZA due to the directionality in the crystal structure, with more than a threefold increase in the modulus parallel to the orientation direction for the highest oriented film in comparison to the modulus from isothermal crystallization. Lastly, RZA enables rapid identification of conditions to maximize orientation of crystals in thin polymer films, which could find utility in determining conditions to improve crystallinity and performance in organic electronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Remarkable enhancement of photocatalytic performance via constructing a novel Z-scheme KNbO{sub 3}/Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3} hybrid material

Highlights: • A series of KNbO{sub 3}/Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3} composite materials with different percentage of KNbO{sub 3} have been prepared by simple methods using Bismuth oxide, niobium pentoxide and potassium hydroxide as precursors. • The rate constants of the best photocatalyst (30 wt.% KNbO{sub 3}/Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3}) for the RhB and MO degradation are about 3.7 times and 4.1 times faster than those of pure Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3} and approximately 6.9 times and 7.1 times faster than those of pure KNbO{sub 3}, respectively. • The composite photocatalyst exhibits a good physical and chemical stability during the photocatalytic reaction process. • Results demonstrat that the migration of photogenerated carriers adopts a direct Z-scheme mechanism and ·O{sup 2−}, ·OH, and h{sup +} are the main reactive species in the photocatalytic process. - Abstract: KNbO{sub 3}/Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3} composite materials with different percentage of KNbO{sub 3} have been prepared by simple methods The structural and optical properties of the resulting samples are thoroughly characterized by XRD, UV–vis DRS, SEM, TEM, and N{sub 2}-sorption analysis. The photocatalytic activities of the as-prepared materials for the degradation of rhodamine B (RhB) and methyl orange (MO) are evaluated under UV-light irradiation. The results indicate that the optimal loading amount of KNbO{sub 3} is 30 wt.% (i. e., 30 wt.% KNbO{sub 3}/Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3}), The rate constants of which for the RhB and MO degradation are about 3.7 times and 4.1 times faster than those of pure Bi{sub 2}O{sub 3} and approximately 6.9 times and 7.1 times faster than those of pure KNbO{sub 3}, respectively. Based on a series of characterizations, it can be concluded that the migration of photogenerated carriers adopts a direct Z-scheme mechanism and ·O{sup 2−}, ·OH, and h{sup +} are the main reactive species in the photocatalytic reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

First principles transport coefficients and reaction rates of Ar{sub 2}{sup +} ions in argon for cold plasma jet modeling

Momentum-transfer collision cross-sections and integral collision cross-sections for the collision-induced dissociation are calculated for collisions of ionized argon dimers with argon atoms using a nonadiabatic semiclassical method with the electronic Hamiltonian calculated on the fly via a diatomics-in-molecules semiempirical model as well as inverse-method modeling based on simple isotropic rigid-core potential. The collision cross-sections are then used in an optimized Monte Carlo code for evaluations of the Ar{sub 2}{sup +} mobility in argon gas, longitudinal diffusion coefficient, and collision-induced dissociation rates. A thorough comparison of various theoretical calculations as well as with available experimental data on the Ar{sub 2}{sup +} mobility and collision cross-sections is performed. Good agreement is found between both theoretical approaches and the experiment. Analysis of the role of inelastic processes in Ar{sub 2}{sup +}/Ar collisions is also provided.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Process design tools and techno-economic analysis for capacitive deionization

Capacitive deionization (CDI) devices use cyclical electrosorption on porous electrode surfaces to achieve water desalination. Process modeling and design of CDI systems requires accurate treatment of the coupling among input electrical forcing, input flow rates, and system responses including salt removal dynamics, water recovery, energy storage, and dissipation. Techno-economic analyses of CDI further require a method to calculate and compare between a produced commodity (e.g. desalted water) versus capital and operational costs of the system. In this work, we demonstrate a new modeling and analysis tool for CDI developed as an installable Matlab program that allows direct numerical simulation of CDI dynamics and calculation of key performance and cost parameters. The program is provided for free and is used to run open-source Simulink models. The Simulink environment sends information to the program and allows for a drag and drop design space where users can connect CDI cells to relevant periphery blocks such as grid energy, battery, solar panel, waste disposal, and maintenance/labor cost streams. The program allows for simulation of arbitrary current forcing and arbitrary flow rate forcing of one or more CDI cells. We employ validated well-mixed reactor formulations together with a non-linear circuit model formulation that can accommodate a variety of electric double layer sub-models (e.g. for charge efficiency). The program includes a graphical user interface (GUI) to specify CDI plant parameters, specify operating conditions, run individual tests or parameter batch-mode simulations, and plot relevant results. The techno-economic models convert among dimensional streams of species (e.g. feed, desalted water, and brine), energy, and cost and enable a variety of economic estimates including levelized water costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy with transition-edge sensors: present performance and future potential

X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) is a powerful element-selective tool to analyze the oxidation states of atoms in complex compounds, determine their electronic configuration, and identify unknown compounds in challenging environments. Until now the low efficiency of wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectrometer technology has limited the use of XES, especially in combination with weaker laboratory X-ray sources. More efficient energy-dispersive detectors have either insufficient energy resolution because of the statistical limits described by Fano or too low counting rates to be of practical use. This paper updates an approach to high-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy that uses a microcalorimeter detector array of superconducting transition-edge sensors (TESs). TES arrays are discussed and compared with conventional methods, and shown under which circumstances they are superior. It is also shown that a TES array can be integrated into a table-top time-resolved X-ray source and a soft X-ray synchrotron beamline to perform emission spectroscopy with good chemical sensitivity over a very wide range of energies.

Uhlig, J.↗

The effect of cobalt doping on the morphology and electrochemical performance of high-voltage spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 cathode material

In this paper, to reveal the effects of Co-doping on the electrochemical performance of micro-sized LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO), undoped LNMO and Co-doped LiCo 0.1 Ni 0.45 Mn 1.45 O 4 (LCoNMO) are synthesized via a PVP-combustion method and calcined at 1000 °C for 6 h. SEM and XRD analyses suggest that Co-doping decreases the particle size and the Li z Ni 1-z O 2 impurity at the calcination temperature of 1000 °C. LCoNMO has much better rate capability while its specific capacity at C/5 is 10% lower than that of LNMO. At 15 C rate, their specific capacities are closed, and the LCoNMO delivers 86.2% capacity relative to C/5, and this value for LNMO is only 77.0%. The D Li + values determined by potential intermittent titration technique (PITT) test of LCoNMO are 1–2 times higher than that of LNMO in most SOC region. The LCoNMO shows very excellent cycling performance, which is the best value compared with literatures. After 1000 cycles, the LCoNMO still delivers 94.1% capacity. Finally, moreover, its coulombic efficiency and energy efficiency keep at 99.84% and over 97.3% during 1 C cycling, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanistic insights into mode of action of potent natural antagonists of BACE-1 for checking Alzheimer’s plaque pathology

Highlights: •Accumulation of Aβ plaques is one of the major pathology associated with Alzheimer’s disease. •Inhibition of β-Secretase or BACE-1 offers a viable prospect to check the growth of these plaques. •A large virtual dataset of natural compounds was screened against BACE-1. •Top two hits were analyzed for thermodynamic and structural stability using MD simulations. •Their detailed binding mode of actions were elucidated. -- Abstract: Alzheimer’s is a neurodegenerative disorder resulting in memory loss and decline in cognitive abilities. Accumulation of extracellular beta amyloidal plaques is one of the major pathology associated with this disease. β-Secretase or BACE-1 performs the initial and rate limiting step of amyloidic pathway in which 37–43 amino acid long peptides are generated which aggregate to form plaques. Inhibition of this enzyme offers a viable prospect to check the growth of these plaques. Numerous efforts have been made in recent years for the generation of BACE-1 inhibitors but many of them failed during the preclinical or clinical trials due to drug related or drug induced toxicity. In the present work, we have used computational methods to screen a large dataset of natural compounds to search for small molecules having BACE-1 inhibitory activity with low toxicity to normal cells. Molecular dynamics simulations were performed to analyze molecular interactions between the screened compounds and the active residues of the enzyme. Herein, we report two natural compounds of inhibitory nature active against β-secretase enzyme of amyloidic pathway and are potent lead molecules against Alzheimer’s disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The GPU-enabled divide-expand-consolidate RI-MP2 method (DEC-RI-MP2)

We report porting of the Divide-Expand-Consolidate Resolution of the Identity second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation (DEC-RI-MP2) method to the graphic processing units (GPUs) using OpenACC compiler directives. It is shown that the OpenACC compiler directives implementation efficiently accelerates the rate-determining step of the DEC-RI-MP2 method with minor implementation effort. Moreover, the GPU acceleration results in a better load balance and thus in an overall scaling improvement of the DEC algorithm. The resulting cross-platform hybrid MPI/OpenMP/OpenACC implementation has scalable and portable performance on heterogeneous HPC architectures. The GPU-enabled code was benchmarked using a reduced version of the S12L test set of Stefan Grimme (Grimme, Chem. Eur. J. 2012, 18, 9955) consisting of supramolecular complexes up to 158 atoms and 4292 contracted basis functions (cc-pVTZ). The test set results demonstrate the general applicability of the DEC-RI-MP2 method showing results consistent with the DEC-RI-MP2 introductory paper (Baudin et al., J. Chem. Phys. 2016, 144, 054102) on molecules of complicated electronic structures. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Chemistry↗

Thermal Versus Impedance-Based Ablation of Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Meta-analysis

Background: Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of renal carcinoma has become an established treatment modality. However, thermal (TB) versus impedance-based (IB)-RF generators have not been previously compared. Methods: A literature search on the application of RFA for renal masses using TB or IB-RF generators was performed. The safety, efficacy, and long-term outcomes of TB versus IB-based RFA were assessed using the outcome measures of technical success, local recurrence rate, complications, and preservation of renal function. Results: Across the 27 included studies, pooled results suggested comparable results for technical success (TB-RFA 98.53 % vs. IB-RFA 98.78 %, P = 0.9813). Clinical efficacy results were also similar across both generators (91.0 % TB-RFA vs. 91.5 % IB-RFA; P = 0.73). At follow-up, no differences in renal function (relative risk [RR] 0.5, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.45–5.48), and local recurrence (RR 0.717, 95 % CI 0.49–1.50) were observed. The pooled proportion of overall complication rates was 13.1 % for TB-RFA and 11.5 % for IB-RFA. Conclusion: No differences in the observed parameters were found either during surgery or at follow-up.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Process-structure-property relationships for droplet-on-demand liquid-metal-jetted parts

Liquid metal jetting droplet-on-demand additive manufacturing is an attractive alternative to industry-standard, laser-based metal additive manufacturing techniques that use powder feedstocks and produce large heat affected zones. Liquid metal jetting provides a low feedstock footprint, minimal materials waste, less contamination and inclusions from feedstock, and is compatible with a large range of materials. However, little has been reported on the liquid metal jetting process-structure-property relationships that are crucial to understanding how to consistently print high quality metal parts. We investigate the effects of build plate temperature, infill pattern, and track raster rate on the macro- and microstructure, density, hardness, and tensile strength of metal parts created with our custom droplet-on-demand setup using pure tin feedstock as a surrogate for more relevant structural materials. We found that although the build plate temperature had the largest influence on the structure and properties, the infill pattern is an important factor for optimal structural integrity. It was observed that the track raster rate influenced track-to-track porosity and should be considered in toolpath development. Despite printing in ambient air, we could not identify oxide on the surface or in the bulk of the parts and saw no adverse effects on microstructure or tensile performance. The results and methods of this study will help guide future work in optimizing the liquid metal jetting process to reliably print parts using any liquid metal jetting system for a wide variety of metal feedstocks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of the multigroup cross section library for the CASL neutronics simulator MPACT: Method and procedure

The MPACT neutronics module of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) core simulator is a 3D whole core transport code being developed for the CASL toolset known as the Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA). Key characteristics of the MPACT code include a subgroup method for resonance self-shielding and a whole-core transport solver with a 2D/1D synthesis method. The AMPX and SCALE code packages have been significantly improved to include intermediate resonance parameters, as well as new modules to enhance the accuracy of resonance data and scattering matrices for the Bondarenko approach and transport cross sections of hydrogen. In addition, CASL XSTools have been developed to generate the MPACT multigroup cross section library. A simple super-homogenization method for 238U has been developed to resolve reaction rate discrepancy issues caused by angle-dependent total cross sections, poor scattering matrices, and a poor resonance interference model at coarse group structure. Here, due to the limitation of computing capacity that can occur even in high performance computing, a new 51-group structure has been developed for efficient simulation that is applicable for both pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR) simulations. A new ENDF/B-VII.1 MPACT 51-group library has been developed using the AMPX/SCALE and XSTools code packages, and it has been verified and validated by performing various benchmark calculations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Time series anomaly detection in power electronics signals with recurrent and ConvLSTM autoencoders

The anomalies in the high voltage converter modulator (HVCM) remain a major down time for the spallation neutron source facility, that delivers the most intense neutron beam in the world for scientific materials research. In this work, we propose neural network architectures based on Recurrent AutoEncoders (RAE) to detect anomalies ahead of time in the power signals coming from the HVCM. Bi-directional gated recurrent unit, bi-directional long-short term memory (LSTM), and convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) are developed, trained, and tested using real experimental signals from the HVCM module. The results show a good performance of the proposed RAE models, achieving precision up to 91%, recall up to 88%, false omission rate as low as 20% (i.e. 80% of the anomalies were detected), and area under the ROC curve up to 0.9. The three RAE models provide very comparable performance, with LSTM showing slightly better performance than GRU and ConvLSTM. The RAE models are benchmarked against other anomaly detection methods, including isolation forest, support vector machine, local outlier factor, feedforward and convolutional autoencoders, and others; showing a better performance. Here, the results of this study demonstrate the promising potential of RAE in anomaly detection for real-world power systems, and for increasing the reliability of the HVCM modules in the spallation neutron source.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Phase I Clinical and Pharmacology Study Using Amifostine as a Radioprotector in Dose-escalated Whole Liver Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Diffuse intrahepatic tumors are difficult to control. Whole-liver radiotherapy has been limited by toxicity, most notably radiation-induced liver disease. Amifostine is a prodrug free-radical scavenger that selectively protects normal tissues and, in a preclinical model of intrahepatic cancer, systemic amifostine reduced normal liver radiation damage without compromising tumor effect. We hypothesized that amifostine would permit escalation of whole-liver radiation dose to potentially control microscopic disease. We also aimed to characterize the pharmacokinetics of amifostine and its active metabolite WR-1065 to optimize timing of radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: We conducted a radiation dose-escalation trial for patients with diffuse, intrahepatic cancer treated with whole-liver radiation and intravenous amifostine. Radiation dose was assigned using the time-to-event continual reassessment method. A companion pharmacokinetic study was performed. Results: Twenty-three patients were treated, with a maximum dose of 40 Gy. Using a logistical regression model, compared with our previously treated patients, amifostine increased liver tolerance by 3.3 {+-} 1.1 Gy (p = 0.007) (approximately 10%) with similar response rates. Peak concentrations of WR-1065 were 25 {mu}M with an elimination half-life of 1.5 h; these levels are consistent with radioprotective effects of amifostine in patients. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate for the first time that amifostine is a normal liver radioprotector. They further suggest that it may be useful to combine amifostine with fractionated or stereotactic body radiation therapy for patients with focal intrahepatic cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Cost of power or power of cost: A U.S. modeling perspective

Future scenarios and assessment studies used to prepare for long-term energy transitions and develop robust strategies to address climate change are highly dependent on the assessment of technology characteristics and availability. The electric power sector in the United States recently experienced a significant cost escalation: e.g. construction costs for large plants such as nuclear and coal-fired power plants doubled between 2003 and 2007. In this work, we assess the main drivers of this escalation. While many factors have affected costs, some of the most significant include cost of materials, particularly the price of metals and to a lesser extent cement, possible increases in labor quantity requirements, the aggressive worldwide competition for power plant design and construction resources, driven by high demand in Asia, regulatory tightening, and general uncertainty about future regulations and climate policies. We recalibrate power sector technology costs in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) based on an extensive literature review of recent (post-2010) studies and in the process develop a coherent and updated set of current cost and performance assumptions for all major electricity-generating technologies. While current cost and performance assumptions of electricity-generating technologies are key drivers of short-term technology deployment and technology mix in the electricity sector, medium- and long-term deployment pathways are significantly affected by assumed efficiency improvement rates and cost reductions. Furthermore, we develop and demonstrate a method to forecast efficiency and construction cost of power plants and a sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of such assumptions in future scenarios generated by GCAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗