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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics

Abstract Global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks may decline with a warmer climate. However, model projections of changes in SOC due to climate warming depend on microbially-driven processes that are usually parameterized based on laboratory incubations. To assess how lab-scale incubation datasets inform model projections over decades, we optimized five microbially-relevant parameters in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model using 16 short-term glucose (6-day), 16 short-term cellulose (30-day) and 16 long-term cellulose (729-day) incubation datasets with soils from forests and grasslands across contrasting soil types. Our analysis identified consistently higher parameter estimates given the short-term versus long-term datasets. Implementing the short-term and long-term parameters, respectively, resulted in SOC loss (–8.2 ± 5.1% or –3.9 ± 2.8%), and minor SOC gain (1.8 ± 1.0%) in response to 5 °C warming, while only the latter is consistent with a meta-analysis of 149 field warming observations (1.6 ± 4.0%). Comparing multiple subsets of cellulose incubations (i.e., 6, 30, 90, 180, 360, 480 and 729-day) revealed comparable projections to the observed long-term SOC changes under warming only on 480- and 729-day. Integrating multi-year datasets of soil incubations (e.g., > 1.5 years) with microbial models can thus achieve more reasonable parameterization of key microbial processes and subsequently boost the accuracy and confidence of long-term SOC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Grayscale projection two-photon lithography using sub-diffraction motifs for ultrafast and precise nanoscale 3D printing

Rapid and high-fidelity nanoscale 3D printing is highly desirable, but it is difficult due to the tradeoff between speed and accuracy. Although optical projection techniques can massively scale up printing, fidelity is compromised due to the difficulty in precisely controlling the light dosage over the entire field. This challenge is typically addressed by using multiple projections, but it slows down printing. Here, we present grayscale projection two-photon lithography to overcome this tradeoff. Despite using a binary mask, it enables projecting more than 15,000 focal spots, each with independently tunable intensity. It advantageously leverages constraints imposed by optical diffraction to achieve grayscale tuning over the entire field at once. By directly tuning the focal spot intensities, we demonstrate suppression of proximity effects, compensation of non-uniform illumination, compensation of stitching artefacts, and rapid 3D printing with a single femtosecond pulse per layer. We demonstrate printing of nanowires as thin as 55 nm and achieve rates of 1.7 billion voxels/s and 215 mm 3 /hr.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerated data-driven materials science with the Materials Project

The Materials Project was launched formally in 2011 to drive materials discovery forwards through high-throughput computation and open data. More than a decade later, the Materials Project has become an indispensable tool used by more than 600,000 materials researchers around the world. This Perspective describes how the Materials Project, as a data platform and a software ecosystem, has helped to shape research in data-driven materials science. We cover how sustainable software and computational methods have accelerated materials design while becoming more open source and collaborative in nature. Next, we present cases where the Materials Project was used to understand and discover functional materials. We then describe our efforts to meet the needs of an expanding user base, through technical infrastructure updates ranging from data architecture and cloud resources to interactive web applications. Finally, we discuss opportunities to better aid the research community, with the vision that more accessible and easy-to-understand materials data will result in democratized materials knowledge and an increasingly collaborative community.

Horton, Matthew K↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-local detection of coherent Yu–Shiba–Rusinov quantum projections

Probing spatially confined quantum states from afar—a long-sought goal to minimize external interference—has been proposed to be feasible in condensed-matter systems through the coherent projection of the state. This can be achieved by engineering the eigenstates of the electron sea that surrounds the quantum state using cages built atom by atom, the so-called quantum corrals. However, the demonstration of the coherent nature of the projection and manipulation of its quantum composition are still important goals. Here we show this for the coherent projection of a Yu–Shiba–Rusinov quantum state that is induced by a magnetic impurity, using the eigenmodes of corrals on the surface of a superconductor. This enables us to manipulate the particle–hole composition of the projected state by tuning the corral eigenmodes through the Fermi energy. Our results demonstrate a controlled non-local method for the detection of magnet–superconductor hybrid quantum states.

quantum mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using nuclear observations to improve climate research and GHG emission estimates – the NuClim project

Project NuClim (Nuclear observations to improve Climate research and GHG emission estimates) aims to use high-quality measurements of atmospheric radon activity concentration and ambient radioactivity to advance climate science and improve radiation protection and nuclear surveillance capabilities. It is supported by new metrological capabilities developed in the EMPIR project 19ENV01 traceRadon. This work reviews the scientific objectives of project NuClim in terms of both climate science and radiological protection, and provides an overview of the NuClim field campaign and the various nuclear measurements being implemented within the scope of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

The GALAXIE all-optical FEL project

We describe a comprehensive project, funded under the DARPA AXiS program, to develop an all-optical table-top X-ray FEL based on dielectric acceleration and electromagnetic undulators, yielding a compact source of coherent X-rays for medical and related applications. The compactness of this source demands that high field (>GV/m) acceleration and undulation-inducing fields be employed, thus giving rise to the project's acronym: GV/m AcceLerator And X-ray Integrated Experiment (GALAXIE). There are numerous physics and technical hurdles to surmount in this ambitious scenario, and the integrated solutions include: a biharmonic photonic TW structure, 200 micron wavelength electromagnetic undulators, 5 {mu}m laser development, ultra-high brightness magnetized/asymmetric emittance electron beam generation, and SASE FEL operation. We describe the overall design philosophy of the project, the innovative approaches to addressing the challenges presented by the design, and the significant progress towards realization of these approaches in the nine months since project initialization.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Linearized Jastrow-style fluctuations on spin-projected Hartree-Fock

The accurate and efficient description of strong electronic correlations remains an important objective in electronic structure theory. Projected Hartree-Fock theory, where symmetries of the Hamiltonian are deliberately broken and projectively restored, all with a mean-field computational scaling, shows considerable promise in this regard. However, the method is neither size extensive nor size consistent; in other words, the correlation energy per particle beyond broken-symmetry mean field vanishes in the thermodynamic limit, and the dissociation limit of a molecule is not the sum of the fragment energies. These two problems are closely related. Recently, Neuscamman [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 203001 (2012)] has proposed a method to cure the lack of size consistency in the context of the antisymmetrized geminal power wave function (equivalent to number-projected Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov) by using a Jastrow-type correlator in Hilbert space. Here, we apply the basic idea in the context of projected Hartree-Fock theory, linearizing the correlator for computational simplicity but extending it to include spin fluctuations. Results are presented for the Hubbard Hamiltonian and for some simple molecular systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Spin-flip configuration interaction singles with exact spin-projection: Theory and applications to strongly correlated systems

Spin-flip approaches capture static correlation with the same computational scaling as the ordinary single reference methods. Here, we extend spin-flip configuration interaction singles (SFCIS) by projecting out intrinsic spin-contamination to make it spin-complete, rather than by explicitly complementing it with spin-coupled configurations. We give a general formalism of spin-projection for SFCIS, applicable to any spin states. The proposed method is viewed as a natural unification of SFCIS and spin-projected CIS to achieve a better qualitative accuracy at a low computational cost. While our wave function ansatz is more compact than previously proposed spin-complete SF approaches, it successfully offers more general static correlation beyond biradicals without sacrificing good quantum numbers. It is also shown that our method is invariant with respect to open-shell orbital rotations, due to the uniqueness of spin-projection. We will report benchmark calculations to demonstrate its qualitative performance on strongly correlated systems, including conical intersections that appear both in ground-excited and excited-excited degeneracies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Design and delivery of the diamond double double bend achromat project

A major project is underway at Diamond Light Source to remove one of the 24 Double Bend Achromat (DBA) Storage Ring cells and replace it with a Double Double Bend Achromat (DDBA). In this way a new Insertion Device (ID) straight can be created and so ID light can be produced and delivered to a beamline previously only capable of receiving Bending Magnet (BM) radiation. This project is in support of the micro-focus Protein Crystallography (MX) beamline VMX-m which is scheduled to take users towards the end of 2017. This paper describes the Engineering Design of the DDBA project in more detail and gives the current status of the project.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Merging symmetry projection methods with coupled cluster theory: Lessons from the Lipkin model Hamiltonian

Coupled cluster and symmetry projected Hartree-Fock are two central paradigms in electronic structure theory. However, they are very different. Single reference coupled cluster is highly successful for treating weakly correlated systems but fails under strong correlation unless one sacrifices good quantum numbers and works with broken-symmetry wave functions, which is unphysical for finite systems. Symmetry projection is effective for the treatment of strong correlation at the mean-field level through multireference non-orthogonal configuration interaction wavefunctions, but unlike coupled cluster, it is neither size extensive nor ideal for treating dynamic correlation. We here examine different scenarios for merging these two dissimilar theories. We carry out this exercise over the integrable Lipkin model Hamiltonian, which despite its simplicity, encompasses non-trivial physics for degenerate systems and can be solved via diagonalization for a very large number of particles. We show how symmetry projection and coupled cluster doubles individually fail in different correlation limits, whereas models that merge these two theories are highly successful over the entire phase diagram. In conclusion, despite the simplicity of the Lipkin Hamiltonian, the lessons learned in this work will be useful for building an ab initio symmetry projected coupled cluster theory that we expect to be accurate in the weakly and strongly correlated limits, as well as the recoupling regime.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Removing instabilities in the hierarchical equations of motion: Exact and approximate projection approaches

The hierarchical equations of motion (HEOM) provide a numerically exact approach for computing the reduced dynamics of a quantum system linearly coupled to a bath. We have found that HEOM contains temperature-dependent instabilities that grow exponentially in time. In the case of continuous-bath models, these instabilities may be delayed to later times by increasing the hierarchy dimension; however, for systems coupled to discrete, nondispersive modes, increasing the hierarchy dimension does little to alleviate the problem. We show that these instabilities can also be removed completely at a potentially much lower cost via projection onto the space of stable eigenmodes; furthermore, we find that for discrete-bath models at zero temperature, the remaining projected dynamics computed with few hierarchy levels are essentially identical to the exact dynamics that otherwise might require an intractably large number of hierarchy levels for convergence. Recognizing that computation of the eigenmodes might be prohibitive, e.g., for large or strongly coupled models, we present a Prony filtration algorithm that may be useful as an alternative for accomplishing this projection when diagonalization is too costly. We present results demonstrating the efficacy of HEOM projected via diagonalization and Prony filtration. Finally, we discuss issues associated with the non-normality of HEOM.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification of an improved equation-free projective integration method for neoclassical plasma-profile evolution in tokamak geometry

A brute-force, long-time gyrokinetic simulation of plasma profile evolution in magnetic fusion devices is not desirable due to large computational resource requirements and a possible accumulation of numerical error. The equation-free projective integration method of Keverekidis et al. [Commun. Math. Sci. 1(4), 715–762 (2003)] is one of the outstanding candidates in projecting micro-scale simulations to a longer timescale. However, its application to tokamak plasma has not been fruitful due to the appearance of spurious transient oscillations in the lifting process, which are present when the kinetic simulations are initialized with a simplified model distribution function and which make the kinetic simulations to deviate from the desired paths. In this work, a kinetically informed lifting algorithm is added to the equation-free projective integration method, which is then verified in the electrostatic gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGCa [R. Hager and C. S. Chang, Phys. Plasmas 23, 042503 (2016)] for a neoclassical ion heat transport problem with adiabatic electrons. This new lifting operator is demonstrated to control spurious transients, enabling an over four-times reduction in the overall computing time in the time-evolution of the ion temperature profile in an axisymmetric toroidal plasma. Further reduction in the computing time is found to be limited due to the stability properties of the linear least squares projective integrator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linear ion-scale microstability analysis of high and low-collisionality NSTX discharges and NSTX-U projections

Linear gyrokinetic simulations were conducted to investigate ion-gyroradius-scale micro-instability predictions for high-beta NSTX discharges and NSTX-U projections that span over an order of magnitude variation in collisionality. A complex mix of microtearing modes and hybrid trapped electron modes/kinetic ballooning modes (TEM/KBM) is predicted for all experimental or projected conditions. Ion temperature gradient (ITG) instabilities are typically stable in the NSTX discharges investigated, consistent with the observed neoclassical ion thermal transport. ITG thresholds inferred from the simulations are typically much higher than the experimental NSTX gradients, as well as the projected gradients in the NSTX-U scenario, which assumed ion temperatures limited by neoclassical transport only. The analysis suggests ITG instabilities are unlikely to contribute significant anomalous thermal losses in high-beta, lower collisionality NSTX-U scenarios. On the other hand, the NSTX experimental profiles and NSTX-U projections are predicted to be very close to the predicted onset of unstable KBM at most radii investigated. The proximity of the various discharges to the KBM instability threshold implies it may play an important role in setting profile shapes and limiting global energy confinement. Here, it remains to be understood and predicted how KBM contributes to multi-channel transport (thermal and particle transport, for both ions and electrons) in a way that is consistent with experimental inferences.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry-projected spin-AGP methods applied to spin systems

Symmetry-projected wave function methods capture static correlation by breaking and restoring the symmetries of a system. In this article, we present the symmetry-projected spin antisymmetrized geminal power (spin-AGP) state projected onto space group symmetry as well as complex conjugation, spin-flip, and time-reversal symmetries. The method is benchmarked on the 1D XXZ model and the 2D J 1 − J 2 model with square and triangular lattices. Our results indicate that symmetry projection methods provide a powerful tool for frustrated spin systems.

Antisymmetrized geminal power↗