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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An assessment of the net value of CSP systems integrated with thermal energy storage

Within this study, we evaluate the operational and capacity value—or total system value—for multiple concentrating solar power (CSP) plant configurations under an assumed 33% renewable penetration scenario in California. We calculate the first-year bid price for two CSP plants, including a 2013 molten-salt tower integrated with a conventional Rankine cycle and a hypothetical 2020 molten-salt tower system integrated with an advanced supercritical carbon-dioxide power block. The overall benefit to the regional grid, defined in this study as the net value, is calculated by subtracting the first-year bid price from the total system value.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Impact of CCS Readiness on the Evolution of China's Electric Power Sector

In this study, GCAM-China is exercised to examine the impact of CCS availability on the projected evolution of China’s electric power sector under the Paris Increased Ambition policy scenario developed by Fawcett et al. based on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the COP-21 Paris Agreement. This policy scenario provides a backdrop for understanding China’s electric generation mix over the coming century under several CCS availability scenarios: CCS is fully available for commercial-scale deployment by 2025; by 2050; by 2075; and CCS is unavailable for use in meeting the modelled mitigation targets through 2100. Without having CCS available, the Chinese electric power sector turns to significant use of nuclear, wind, and solar to meet growing demands and emissions targets, at a cost. Should large-scale CCS deployment be delayed in China by 25 years, the modeled per-ton cost of climate change mitigation is projected to be roughly $420/tC (2010 US dollars) by 2050, relative to $360/tC in the case in which CCS is available to deploy by 2025, a 16% increase. Once CCS is available for commercial use, mitigation costs for the two cases converge, equilibrating by 2085. However, should CCS be entirely unavailable to deploy in China, the mitigation cost spread, compared to the 2025 case, doubles by 2075 ($580/tC and $1130/tC respectively), and triples by 2100 ($1050/tC vs. $3200/tC). However, while delays in CCS availability may have short-term impacts on China’s overall per-ton cost of meeting the emissions reduction target evaluated here, as well as total mitigation costs, the carbon price is likely to approach the price path associated with the full CCS availability case within a decade of CCS deployment. Having CCS available before the end of the century, even under the delays examined here, could reduce the total amount of nuclear and renewable energy that must deploy, reducing the overall cost of meeting the emissions mitigation targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2 -EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulative CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2 -oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2 -EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Efficient Screening of Bi–Metallic Electrocatalysts for Glycerol Valorization

Glycerol is a byproduct of biodiesel production and, as such, it is of limited economic value. By means of electrooxidation, glycerol can be used as a feedstock for scalable hydrogen production, in addition to conversion to value-added products. The development of novel and efficient catalytic electrode materials for the anodic side of the reaction is a key towards a hydrogen-based energy economy. In the present study, a computational screening protocol combining DFT, scaling relations, and microkinetic modeling allows for a rational selection of novel catalysts that can deliver efficient glycerol electrooxidation, low cost of production, and environmental sustainability. Activity and chemical selectivity towards hydrogen production on pure metal catalysts is discussed in terms of volcano-shaped plots. We find that the selectivity in the glycerol oxidation reaction is influenced by a different energy landscape when in the presence of water and best classified by a comparison of O—H and C—H bond-breaking barriers. In addition, we screened 3570 bi-metallic catalysts in the AB (L1 0 ) and A 3 B (L1 2 ) ordered structures for activity, stability, price, and toxicity. By filtering based on the criteria for toxicity, resistance to oxidation, miscibility, and price, we have identified 5 L1 0 structured catalysts (AgPd, AuPd, PtSb, CuPt, and AgPt) and 20 L1 2 catalysts (Ga 3 Ta, In 3 Ta, Ir 3 W, Ir 3 Mo, Cu 3 Pt, Ir 3 Ta, Ir 3 Re, Pd 3 Bi, Pd 3 Cu, Pd 3 W, Pd 3 Co, Pd 3 Sn, Pd 3 Mo, Pd 3 Ag, Pd 3 Ga, Pd 3 Ta, Au 3 Ru, Pd 3 In, Au 3 Ir, and Pd 3 Au) that are all predicted to show high activity. We also identify an additional 37 L1 0 and 92 L1 2 structured electrocatalysts with an anticipated medium-high activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Regional Analysis of Building Distributed Energy Costs and CO2 Abatement: A U.S. - China Comparison

The following paper conducts a regional analysis of the U.S. and Chinese buildings? potential for adopting Distributed Energy Resources (DER). The expected economics of DER in 2020-2025 is modeled for a commercial and a multi-family residential building in different climate zones. The optimal building energy economic performance is calculated using the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER CAM) which minimizes building energy costs for a typical reference year of operation. Several DER such as combined heat and power (CHP) units, photovoltaics, and battery storage are considered. The results indicate DER have economic and environmental competitiveness potential, especially for commercial buildings in hot and cold climates of both countries. In the U.S., the average expected energy cost savings in commercial buildings from DER CAM?s suggested investments is 17percent, while in Chinese buildings is 12percent. The electricity tariffs structure and prices along with the cost of natural gas, represent important factors in determining adoption of DER, more so than climate. High energy pricing spark spreads lead to increased economic attractiveness of DER. The average emissions reduction in commercial buildings is 19percent in the U.S. as a result of significant investments in PV, whereas in China, it is 20percent and driven by investments in CHP. Keywords: Building Modeling and Simulation, Distributed Energy Resources (DER), Energy Efficiency, Combined Heat and Power (CHP), CO2 emissions 1. Introduction The transition from a centralized and fossil-based energy paradigm towards the decentralization of energy supply and distribution has been a major subject of research over the past two decades. Various concerns have brought the traditional model into question; namely its environmental footprint, its structural inflexibility and inefficiency, and more recently, its inability to maintain acceptable reliability of supply. Under such a troubled setting, distributed energy resources (DER) comprising of small, modular, electrical renewable or fossil-based electricity generation units placed at or near the point of energy consumption, has gained much attention as a viable alternative or addition to the current energy system. In 2010, China consumed about 30percent of its primary energy in the buildings sector, leading the country to pay great attention to DER development and its applications in buildings. During the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP), China has implemented 371 renewable energy building demonstration projects, and 210 photovoltaics (PV) building integration projects. At the end of the 12th FYP, China is targeting renewable energy to provide 10percent of total building energy, and to save 30 metric tons of CO2 equivalents (mtce) of energy with building integrated renewables. China is also planning to implement one thousand natural gas-based distributed cogeneration demonstration projects with energy utilization rates over 70percent in the 12th FYP. All these policy targets require significant DER systems development for building applications. China?s fast urbanization makes building energy efficiency a crucial economic issue; however, only limited studies have been done that examine how to design and select suitable building energy technologies in its different regions. In the U.S., buildings consumed 40percent of the total primary energy in 2010 [1] and it is estimated that about 14 billion m2 of floor space of the existing building stock will be remodeled over the next 30 years. Most building?s renovation work has been on building envelope, lighting and HVAC systems. Although interest has emerged, less attention is being paid to DER for buildings. This context has created opportunities for research, development and progressive deployment of DER, due to its potential to combine the production of power and heat (CHP) near the point of consumption and delivering multiple benefits to customers, such as cost

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Regression-based approach to modeling emerging HVAC technologies in EnergyPlus: A case study using a Vuilleumier-cycle heat pump

This paper presents a regression-based approach for modeling emerging heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) technologies using the user-defined coil object in the building simulation software EnergyPlus. The approach can use output from HVAC system models or experimental data to create regression-based performance curves, which are then used within the building simulation. The regression approach is an alternative to modeling new HVAC technologies directly in EnergyPlus or performing co-simulation with a system model in a separate program. The proposed approach connects component and system level designs, and their associated performance, with annual energy use and costs in a variety of climates. This study focused on a Vuilleumier-cycle heat pump for a commercial building. We describe (1) the design and modeling of this system, (2) methods for translating this performance into a simplified model in EnergyPlus, and (3) building energy simulation results in United States climate zones 4-6. The results predict that the Vuilleumier-cycle heat pump will use 34 to 44% less source heating energy than an 80% efficient gas furnace, and more source cooling energy than a SEER 13 air conditioner. Total energy costs are lower when electricity prices are high and natural gas prices are low.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MPC solution for optimal load shifting for buildings with ON/OFF staged packaged units: Experimental demonstration, and lessons learned

Small and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCB) are significant demand response resources, and it is important to develop grid-responsive control algorithms that exploit those resources and create financial benefits for building owners and HVAC service providers. Furthermore, unlike large-sized commercial buildings, there is an opportunity to have universally applicable control solutions for many SMCBs since those buildings have a consistent HVAC system configuration: SMCBs are commonly served by multiple-staged air conditioning units controlled by their own thermostats. Despite the demand response potential and scalability, however, very few control solutions are available for SMCBs. Typical model predictive control (MPC) and heuristic control approaches for cooling load shifting that lower thermostat setpoints before an electric price jump are suitable mainly for large-sized commercial buildings where a continuous capacity modulation is possible, e.g., via dampers in variable air volume terminal units. However, those approaches can cause undesired, high peaks for SMCBs due to the nature of ON/OFF unit staging and narrow thermostat deadbands. This could discourage the use of advanced grid-responsive controls for SMCBs due to the concern of high demand charges, and has to be resolved. This paper presents a MPC solution that overcomes this challenge. It has a hierarchical MPC structure where an upper level MPC is responsible for electrical load shifting in response to an electric price signal while a lower level MPC is responsible for coordinating compressor stages to eliminate unnecessary peaks and follows the setpoints determined by the upper level MPC. In this work, two one-month, comprehensive laboratory tests have been carried out to demonstrate load shifting and cost savings for the algorithm. Interesting trade-offs between energy efficiency and load flexibility were observed and are discussed, and lessons learned for applying MPCs for SMCBs are also presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

Optimal environmental and economic performance trade-offs for fifth generation district heating and cooling network topologies with waste heat recovery

Network topology greatly influences both the economic and environmental performance of fifth generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems. In this study the optimal trade-offs between the environmental and economic performance of 5GDHC network topologies for a five-building district with waste heat recovery were explored. A life cycle assessment method was used to calculate the total life cycle CO 2 emissions (LCCO2) associated with the installation and operation of various network topologies. Twelve months of empirical data from a data center cooling system were analyzed to assess its suitability for integration into a 5GDHC system. The most suitable method for utilizing this waste heat was selected based on the ambient loop warm pipe setpoint, waste heat temperature, and district energy system configuration. A multi-objective optimization algorithm was used to select the 5GDHC network topology that provided the optimal trade-off between LCCO2 and life cycle cost (LCC). A trade-off parameter was employed to weigh the importance of each objective in the selection process. The results showed waste heat from the data center was suitable for integration into the 5GDHC system due to its availability and consistent temperature profile. When return temperatures of 25 °C or higher were available from the liquid-cooled system, direct pre-heating of the ambient loop warm pipe was found to be the most effective waste heat integration method. The selection of the network topology that provided the optimal trade-off between LCCO2 and LCC (optimal trade-off topology) was highly dependent on factors such as fuel prices, CO 2 prices, electricity CO 2 emissions factors, availability of waste heat, embodied CO 2 emissions associated with network installation and network infrastructure costs. Optimal trade-off topologies produced substantial LCCO2 reductions relative to corresponding LCC increases. LCCO2 reduction to LCC increase ratios from 5.78 to 117.79 were identified with CO 2 offset costs ranging from 4.77 to 60.08 ($/tCO 2 e).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Experimental characterization and analysis of phase change material-based thermal energy storage system for refrigerated display case

Refrigerated display cases that are used to store and exhibit food products in supermarkets and retail spaces consume a significant portion of the buildings’ total electricity. Importantly, the refrigeration-related energy cost and demand charges are greatly affected by the time-of-use electricity pricing and demand rates, which are at their maximum during peak hours, typically when refrigeration energy consumption is also high. Using energy storage to shift the refrigeration load from peak to off-peak hours can greatly reduce the operational costs in the supermarket. This study demonstrates a phase change material-based thermal energy storage (TES) system, specifically designed in stackable units, that can be integrated with an open vertical refrigerated display case. We perform numerical and experimental characterization that includes finite-difference modeling for the TES, prototype fabrication, and laboratory evaluation, followed by a preliminary system-level analysis to predict the impact of TES on the refrigerated case performance, energy use, and energy cost. The results show that the dedicated latent TES for refrigerated cases can provide a specific energy of 50.4 Wh/kg and a specific power of 15.5 W/kg. The TES can be charged during 12 h of the off-peak period and discharged at various rates during 4 to 6 h of the peak period, thereby shifting the refrigeration load from the peak to the off-peak period. Consequently, annual cost savings up to 19% can be achieved, depending on the thermal load, the summer/winter peak electricity pricing, and the transition temperature of the phase change material used.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Optimization under uncertainty of a hybrid waste tire and natural gas feedstock flexible polygeneration system using a decomposition algorithm

Market uncertainties motivate the development of flexible polygeneration systems that are able to adjust operating conditions to favor production of the most profitable product portfolio. However, this operational flexibility comes at the cost of higher capital expenditure. A scenario-based two-stage stochastic nonconvex Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) approach lends itself naturally to optimizing these trade-offs. This work studies the optimal design and operation under uncertainty of a hybrid feedstock flexible polygeneration system producing electricity, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins or liquefied (synthetic) natural gas. A recently developed C++ based software framework (named GOSSIP) is used for modeling the optimization problem as well as its efficient solution using the Nonconvex Generalized Benders Decomposition (NGBD) algorithm. Two different cases are studied: The first uses estimates of the means and variances of the uncertain parameters from historical data, whereas the second assesses the impact of increased uncertain parameter volatility. The value of implementing flexible designs characterized by the value of the stochastic solution (VSS) is in the range of 260–405 M$ for a scale of approximately 893 MW of thermal input. Increased price volatility around the same mean results in higher expected net present value and VSS as operational flexibility allows for asymmetric exploitation of price peaks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis

Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗