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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Binary Classification via Accuracy Gain

ABSTRACT Recently, a surge of interest has been given to quantifying epistemic uncertainty (EU), the reducible portion of uncertainty due to lack of data. We propose a novel EU estimator in the binary classification setting, as the posterior expected value of the empirical gain in accuracy between the current prediction and the optimal prediction. In order to validate the performance of our EU estimator, we introduce an experimental procedure where we take an existing dataset, remove a set of points, and compare the estimated EU with the observed change in accuracy. Through real and simulated data experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EU estimator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Pantheon+ Analysis: Evaluating Peculiar Velocity Corrections in Cosmological Analyses with Nearby Type Ia Supernovae

Separating the components of redshift due to expansion and peculiar motion in the nearby universe (z < 0.1) is critical for using Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) to measure the Hubble constant (H 0 ) and the equation-of-state parameter of dark energy (w). Here, we study the two dominant "motions" contributing to nearby peculiar velocities: large-scale, coherent-flow (CF) motions and small-scale motions due to gravitationally associated galaxies deemed to be in a galaxy group. We use a set of 584 low-z SNe from the Pantheon+ sample, and evaluate the efficacy of corrections to these motions by measuring the improvement of SN distance residuals. We study multiple methods for modeling the large and small-scale motions and show that, while group assignments and CF corrections individually contribute to small improvements in Hubble residual scatter, the greatest improvement comes from the combination of the two (relative standard deviation of the Hubble residuals, Rel. SD, improves from 0.167 to 0.157 mag). We find the optimal flow corrections derived from various local density maps significantly reduce Hubble residuals while raising H 0 by ~0.4 km s -1 Mpc -1 as compared to using CMB redshifts, disfavoring the hypothesis that unrecognized local structure could resolve the Hubble tension. We estimate that the systematic uncertainties in cosmological parameters after optimally correcting redshifts are 0.06–0.11 km s -1 Mpc -1 in H 0 and 0.02–0.03 in w which are smaller than the statistical uncertainties for these measurements: 1.5 km s -1 Mpc -1 for H 0 and 0.04 for w.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems

This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.

dynamic load modeling↗

Dynamically consistent hydrography and absolute velocity in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

The problem of mapping a dynamically consistent hydrographic field and associated absolute geostrophic flow in the eastern North Atlantic between 24 deg and 36 deg N is related directly to the solution of the so-called thermocline equations. A nonlinear optimization problem involving Needler's P equation is solved to find the hydrography and resulting flow that minimizes the vertical mixing above about 1500 m in the ocean and is simultaneously consistent with the observations. A sharp minimum (at least in some dimensions) is found, apparently corresponding to a solution nearly conserving potential vorticity and with vertical eddy coefficient less than about 10(exp -5) sq m/s. Estimates of `residual' quantities such as eddy coefficients are extremely sensitive to slight modifications to the observed fields. Boundary conditions, vertical velocities, etc., are a product of the optimization and produce estimates differing quantitatively from prior ones relying directly upon observed hydrography. The results are generally insensitive to particular elements of the solution methodology, but many questions remain concerning the extent to which different synoptic sections can be asserted to represent the same ocean. The method can be regarded as a practical generalization of the beta spiral and geostrophic balance inverses for the estimate of absolute geostrophic flows. Numerous improvements to the methodology used in this preliminary attempt are possible.

Wunsch, Carl↗

Realization of a high luminosity muon beam at the Jefferson Lab

The proton is the major component of the visible matter of our universe, so being able to determine its fundamental properties, such as its charge radius, is of vital importance. In recent years, several experiments have been performed for the accurate measurement of the proton radius with different experimental techniques. The main and most common are based on two different techniques: ep scattering and Lamb shift spectroscopy of regular hydrogen atoms. The latter can also be performed on muonic hydrogen atoms with a significant improvement in accuracy. Recent measurements that use this method have highlighted a discrepancy between the results obtained with the diffusion of electrons and those obtained with the spectroscopic technique leading to the so-called ?proton radius puzzle?. The explanation of why this difference between the measured values exists is still a matter of discussion. The last attempt to address the puzzle was the PRad Experiment. It was performed with a unique experimental setup that gave the scientists an excellent control on the systematic errors that are usually present in electron-proton scattering experiments. This has significantly increased the precision of the measurement, bringing it in the same area as the spectroscopic ones done on muonic hydrogen atoms, which are considered the most precise. However, to solve the puzzle once and for all, even more precise electron scattering measurements are needed. Alternatively, new methods can be used, such as eg. muon-proton scattering at low transferred momenta in order to lower the systematic errors that comes with the measurement. This thesis tries to address this problem by studying the set up of an intense muon beam at the Jefferson Laboratory (JLab) that can be used to carry out a high-precision m ? p scattering experiment. Using Montecarlo simulations I studied the muon production resulting from the interaction of the primary electron beam with the beam-dump at JLab Hall-A. The simulations were performed using the FLUKA package via the FLAIR graphical interface. In this study, I modified an existing geometry (built for the ?Beam Dump eXperiment?) and performed several studies in order to optimize the muon beam parameters. In order to estimate the beam intensity, I studied the muon generation and transportation through the concrete bunker surrounding the Hall-A beam-dump. Detailed studies on muon attenuation and dispersion at different depth allowed me to track the beam profile in space and momentum as a function of the distance from the beam-dump. Last, but not least, I studied a possible tagging system for the muon beam. The tagging system will allow us to know with good precision (O(1=1000)) the energy of each muon of the beam. Based on the results obtained, I created an event generator that incorporates the detailed description of the muon beam (energy, position, emittance) useful to define and optimize the experimental setup for a future measurement of the proton radius at the JLab.

Fulci, Antonino↗

Stochastic gradient descent for optimization for nuclear systems

The use of gradient descent methods for optimizing k-eigenvalue nuclear systems has been shown to be useful in the past, but the use of k-eigenvalue gradients have proved computationally challenging due to their stochastic nature. ADAM is a gradient descent method that accounts for gradients with a stochastic nature. This analysis uses challenge problems constructed to verify if ADAM is a suitable tool to optimize k-eigenvalue nuclear systems. ADAM is able to successfully optimize nuclear systems using the gradients of k-eigenvalue problems despite their stochastic nature and uncertainty. Furthermore, it is clearly demonstrated that low-compute time, high-variance estimates of the gradient lead to better performance in the optimization challenge problems tested here.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Genetic Optimization of Planetary Gearboxes Based on Analytical Gearing Equations

Electric and hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles will require high performance electric motor driven propulsion systems to enable fuel burn and emissions benefits over traditional liquid fuel powered rotorcraft. One key to the design of a high performance electric motor driven propulsion systems is to be able to estimate the mass and efficiency of a gearbox at various motor and propellor operating speeds. Knowing how gearbox mass and efficiency trade with motor and propellor rotational speed, allows motor and propellor RPM to be traded in an overall optimization of the propulsion system. In this paper, a genetic optimization tool for estimating the mass and efficiency of gearboxes is presented. Example results from the tool are presented and compared to existing correlations in use by NASA aircraft design codes.

Thomas Tallerico↗

Differences Between OCO‐2 and GOME‐2 SIF Products From a Model‐Data Fusion Perspective

Space-borne retrievals of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) over land surfaces have recently become a resource for studying and quantifying the broad scale dynamics of gross carbon uptake (gross primary productivity—GPP) across ecosystems. To prepare for the assimilation of SIF data in terrestrial biosphere models, we examine how differences between SIF products (due to differences in acquisition characteristics and processing chain) may affect the optimization of model parameters and the resultant GPP estimate. We compare recent daily mean SIF products (one from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 [OCO-2] and two from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment–2 [GOME-2], GlobFluo [GF] and NASA-v28 [N28], missions), averaged at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and 16-day temporal resolution, at the biome level. Phase differences between these products are relatively small. A first-order correction of the difference in spectral sampling between the two instruments shows that OCO-2 and N28 are consistent in terms of magnitude and amplitude, while GF is twice as large as the others. Using a bias-blind toy data assimilation framework, we analyze how biases between SIF products, and between model and products, can be partially alleviated by optimizing the slope and intercept parameters of a linear GPP-SIF operator. As observation biases can transfer to biases in other optimized process-based parameters and to modeled carbon fluxes— thereby resulting in unidentified inaccurate parameter values—we argue that potential SIF biases should be treated cautiously in real-world experiments in order to achieve realistic and reliable future simulations.

Gross primary production↗

Impact of cyber attacks on distributed compressive sensing based state estimation in power distribution grids

Modern power distribution grids suffer from multiple vulnerabilities due to the tight integration between the physical system and the cyber infrastructure. Sophisticated and malicious cyber attacks continue to adversely impact the grid operation leading to performance degradation, service interruption, and grid failure. State estimation plays an essential role in grid monitoring and advancing cyber-attack situational awareness. In this regard, this paper first proposes a distributed compressive sensing (CS) state estimation approach for an unobservable distribution grid. Further, the proposed distributed CS approach divides the distribution grid into sub-areas to perform local state estimation. Then an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) based iterative information exchange among neighboring areas is employed to complete the estimation process. In this estimation process, the impact of loss of measurement data, false data injection (FDI), replay, and neighborhood cyber-attacks is analyzed. Extensive simulations are performed on the IEEE 37-bus and IEEE 123-bus standard networks to demonstrate the algorithm’s robustness to the aforementioned cyber-attacks. A quantitative analysis of computational complexity and simulation time of the distributed CS based approach is also presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic Multi-Scale, Multi-Level, Multi-Disciplinary Analysis and Optimization of Engine Structures

Aircraft engines are assemblies of dynamically interacting components. Engine updates to keep present aircraft flying safely and engines for new aircraft are progressively required to operate in more demanding technological and environmental requirements. Designs to effectively meet those requirements are necessarily collections of multi-scale, multi-level, multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization methods and probabilistic methods are necessary to quantify respective uncertainties. These types of methods are the only ones that can formally evaluate advanced composite designs which satisfy those progressively demanding requirements while assuring minimum cost, maximum reliability and maximum durability. Recent research activities at NASA Glenn Research Center have focused on developing multi-scale, multi-level, multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods. Multi-scale refers to formal methods which describe complex material behavior metal or composite; multi-level refers to integration of participating disciplines to describe a structural response at the scale of interest; multidisciplinary refers to open-ended for various existing and yet to be developed discipline constructs required to formally predict/describe a structural response in engine operating environments. For example, these include but are not limited to: multi-factor models for material behavior, multi-scale composite mechanics, general purpose structural analysis, progressive structural fracture for evaluating durability and integrity, noise and acoustic fatigue, emission requirements, hot fluid mechanics, heat-transfer and probabilistic simulations. Many of these, as well as others, are encompassed in an integrated computer code identified as Engine Structures Technology Benefits Estimator (EST/BEST) or Multi-faceted/Engine Structures Optimization (MP/ESTOP). The discipline modules integrated in MP/ESTOP include: engine cycle (thermodynamics), engine weights, internal fluid mechanics, cost, mission and coupled structural/thermal, various composite property simulators and probabilistic methods to evaluate uncertainty effects (scatter ranges) in all the design parameters. The objective of the proposed paper is to briefly describe a multi-faceted design analysis and optimization capability for coupled multi-discipline engine structures optimization. Results are presented for engine and aircraft type metrics to illustrate the versatility of that capability. Results are also presented for reliability, noise and fatigue to illustrate its inclusiveness. For example, replacing metal rotors with composites reduces the engine weight by 20 percent, 15 percent noise reduction, and an order of magnitude improvement in reliability. Composite designs exist to increase fatigue life by at least two orders of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art metals.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Optimizing Medical Kits for Spaceflight

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulation outcomes describing the impact of medical events on the mission may be used to optimize the allocation of resources in medical kits. Efficient allocation of medical resources, subject to certain mass and volume constraints, is crucial to ensuring the best outcomes of in-flight medical events. We implement a new approach to this medical kit optimization problem. METHODS We frame medical kit optimization as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing a dynamic programming technique. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 different mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the probability of evacuation and maximizing the Crew Health Index (CHI) for each mission subject to mass and volume constraints. Simulation outcomes using these kits were also compared to outcomes using kits optimized..RESULTS The optimized medical kits generated by the algorithm described here resulted in predicted mission outcomes more closely approached the unlimited-resource scenario for Crew Health Index (CHI) than the implementation in under all optimization priorities. Furthermore, the approach described here improves upon in reducing evacuation when the optimization priority is minimizing the probability of evacuation. CONCLUSIONS This algorithm provides an efficient, effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions using the Integrated Medical Model.

Optimization↗

The Simons Observatory: Combining cross-spectral foreground cleaning with multitracer B -mode delensing for improved constraints on inflation

The Simons Observatory (SO), due to start full science operations in early 2025, aims to set tight constraints on inflationary physics by inferring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization B-modes. Its nominal design including three small-aperture telescopes (SATs) targets a precision σ⁡(r = 0) ≤ 0.003 without delensing. Achieving this goal and further reducing uncertainties requires a thorough understanding and mitigation of other large-scale B-mode sources such as Galactic foregrounds and weak gravitational lensing. We present an analysis pipeline aiming to estimate r by including delensing within a cross-spectral likelihood, and demonstrate it for the first time on SO-like simulations accounting for various levels of foreground complexity, inhomogeneous noise and partial sky coverage. As introduced in an earlier SO delensing paper, lensing B-modes are synthesized using internal CMB lensing reconstructions as well as Planck-like cosmic infrared background maps and LSST-like galaxy density maps. We then extend SO’s power-spectrum-based foreground-cleaning algorithm to include all auto- and cross-spectra between the lensing template and the SAT B-modes in the likelihood function. This allows us to constrain r and the parameters of our foreground model simultaneously. Within this framework, we demonstrate the equivalence of map-based and cross-spectral delensing and use it to motivate an optimized pixel-weighting scheme for power spectrum estimation. We start by validating our pipeline in the simplistic case of uniform foreground spectral energy distributions. In the absence of primordial B-modes, we find that the 1⁢σ statistical uncertainty on r, σ⁡(r), decreases by 37% as a result of delensing. Tensor modes at the level of r = 0.01 are successfully detected by our pipeline. Even when using more realistic foreground models including spatial variations in the dust and synchrotron spectral properties, we obtain unbiased estimates of r both with and without delensing by employing the moment-expansion method. In this case, uncertainties are increased due to the higher number of model parameters, and delensing-related improvements range between 27% and 31%. These results constitute the first realistic assessment of the delensing performance at SO’s nominal sensitivity level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GAINN: The Galaxy Assembly and Interaction Neural Networks for High-redshift JWST Observations

We present the Galaxy Assembly and Interaction Neural Networks (Gainn), a series of artificial neural networks for predicting the redshift, stellar mass, halo mass, and mass-weighted age of simulated galaxies based on James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) photometry. Our goal is to determine the best neural network for predicting these variables at 11 < z < 15. The parameters of the optimal neural network can then be used to estimate these variables for real, observed galaxies. The inputs of the neural networks are JWST filter magnitudes of a subset of five broadband filters (F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W, and F444W) and two medium-band filters (F162M and F182M). We compare the performance of the neural networks using different combinations of these filters, as well as different activation functions and numbers of layers. The best neural network predicted redshift with a normalized rms error of $0.010^{+0.003}_{-0.001}$, stellar mass with rms = $0.089^{+0.044}_{-0.022}$, halo mass with a mean-squared error of $0.022^{+0.014}_{-0.008}$, and mass-weighted age with rms = $12.466^{+5.065}_{-2.408}$. We also test the performance of Gainn on real data from MACS0647JD, an object observed by JWST. Predictions from Gainn for the first projection of the object (JD1) have normalized bias $\langle$Δz$\rangle$ < 0.00228, which is significantly smaller than found with template-fitting methods. We find that the optimal filter combination is F277W, F356W, F162M, and F200W when considering both theoretical accuracy and observational resources from JWST.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How to Estimate Attitude from Vector Observations

The most robust estimators minimizing Wahba's loss function are Davenport's q method and the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method. The q method is faster than the SVD method with three or more measurements. The other algorithms are less robust since they solve the characteristic polynomial equation to find the maximum eigenvalue of Davenport's K matrix. They are only preferable when speed or processor power is an important consideration. Of these, Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) is the most robust and faster than the q method. Robustness is only an issue for measurements with widely differing accuracies, so the fastest algorithms, Quaternion ESTimator (QUEST), EStimator of the Optimal Quaternion (ESOQ), and ESOQ2, are well suited to star sensor applications.

Markley, F. Landis↗

Automating methods for estimating metabolite volatility

The volatility of metabolites can influence their biological roles and inform optimal methods for their detection. Yet, volatility information is not readily available for the large number of described metabolites, limiting the exploration of volatility as a fundamental trait of metabolites. Here, we adapted methods to estimate vapor pressure from the functional group composition of individual molecules (SIMPOL.1) to predict the gas-phase partitioning of compounds in different environments. We implemented these methods in a new open pipeline called volcalc that uses chemoinformatic tools to automate these volatility estimates for all metabolites in an extensive and continuously updated pathway database: the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) that connects metabolites, organisms, and reactions. We first benchmark the automated pipeline against a manually curated data set and show that the same category of volatility (e.g., nonvolatile, low, moderate, high) is predicted for 93% of compounds. We then demonstrate how volcalc might be used to generate and test hypotheses about the role of volatility in biological systems and organisms. Specifically, we estimate that 3.4 and 26.6% of compounds in KEGG have high volatility depending on the environment (soil vs. clean atmosphere, respectively) and that a core set of volatiles is shared among all domains of life (30%) with the largest proportion of kingdom-specific volatiles identified in bacteria. With volcalc , we lay a foundation for uncovering the role of the volatilome using an approach that is easily integrated with other bioinformatic pipelines and can be continually refined to consider additional dimensions to volatility. The volcalc package is an accessible tool to help design and test hypotheses on volatile metabolites and their unique roles in biological systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MOOSE Optimization Module Overview: Application to Residual Stress Inversion in Nuclear Fuel Plates

Manufacturing methods, material selections and unique plate geometries used in low enriched uranium plate fuels for the High Performance Research Reactor (HPRR) have led to concerns about the residual stresses effect on bond strength of the fuel/cladding interfaces and overall fuel performance under irradiation. The current HPRR plate fuel test program performed residual stress calculations using the contour method with experimental displacement data obtained by incrementally cutting the plate fuel. In this work, we use a gradient based inverse optimization module developed within the MOOSE framework to estimate normal and shear residual stresses within the plate fuels using displacement data taken from a cut placed in the HPRR fuel plate. These results are verified against residual stress calculations obtained from the contour method. The inversion protocol used in this work utilizes two meshes to separately discretize the physics and parameter space. This allows a fine mesh to be used to fully resolve the physics and geometry of the forward problem. A coarser mesh is used to resolve the parameter space with spatially varying mesh density determined from a sensitivity analysis. The adaptive resolution of the parameter space essentially has the effect of regularization as it is designed to achieve the bias-variance tradeoff.

42 ENGINEERING↗