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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Climate change is reducing the amount, duration, and extent of snow across high-latitude ecosystems. But, in landscapes where persistent winter snow cover develops, experimental platforms to specifically investigate interactions between warming and changes in snowpack, and impacts on ecosystem processes, have been lacking. We leveraged a whole-ecosystem warming experiment in a boreal peatland forest to quantify how snow duration, depth, and fractional cover vary with warming of up to +9°C. We found that every snow-related quantity we examined declined precipitously as the amount of warming increased. The importance of deep, continuous snow cover for moderating shallow soil temperature is highlighted by an increase in soil temperature variance and the frequency of short-duration freeze-thaw cycles in the warmer plots. We used a paired-plot approach to estimate the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback effect, and demonstrate that albedo-driven warming linked to reduced snow cover varies between December (+0.4°C increase in maximum air temperature) and March (+1.2°C increase) because of differences in insolation. Overall, results show that even modest future warming will have profound impacts on northern winters and cold-season ecosystem processes. Plot-level data from this warming experiment, and emergent relationships between warming and quantities related to snow cover and duration, could be of enormous value for testing and improving the representation of snow processes in simulation models, especially under future climate scenarios that are outside of the range of historically observed variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Electron Temperature and Density Using Van Allen Probe Data: Typical Behavior of Energetic Electrons in the Inner Magnetosphere

Abstract The Earth's inner magnetosphere contains multiple electron populations influenced by different factors. The cold electrons of the plasmasphere, warm plasma that contributes to the ring current, and the relativistic plasma of the radiation belts often seem to behave independently. Using omni‐directional flux and energy measurements from the HOPE and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments aboard the Van Allen Probes, we provide a detailed density and temperature description of the inner magnetosphere, offering a comprehensive statistical analysis of the entire Van Allen Probe era. While number density and temperature data at geosynchronous orbit are available, this study focuses on the warm plasma in the inner magnetosphere . Values of density and temperature are extracted by fitting energy and phase space density to obtain the distribution function. The fitted distributions are related to the zeroth and second moments to estimate the number density and temperature. Analysis has indicated that a two Maxwellian fit is sufficient over a wide range of and that there are two independent plasma populations. The more energetic population has a median number density of approximately and a temperature of around 130 keV, with a temperature peak observed between L * = 4 and L * = 4.5. This population is relatively uniform in magnetic local time (MLT). In contrast, the less energetic warm electron population has a median number density of about and a temperature of 7.4 keV. Strong statistical trends in density and temperature across both L * and MLT are presented, along with potential sources driving these variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Electric Fields Driving Lightning Dart Leader Development With BIMAP‐3D Observations

Abstract In this paper, a numerical dart leader model has been implemented to understand the leader's development and the corresponding electric field changes observed by the 3D broadband mapping and polarization (BIMAP‐3D) system. The model assumes the extending leader channel is equipotential and has a linear charge distribution induced by an ambient electric field. The charge distribution induced by the ambient field can be used to model the electric field change at the ground. We then find the ambient electric field which best fits the field change measurements at the two BIMAP stations. The estimated ambient electric field decreases in the direction of dart leader propagation. Our observations and modeling results are consistent with our earlier hypothesis that dart leader speed is proportional to the electric field at the leader tip. The model also supports our earlier analysis that leader speed variations near branch junctions were due to previous charge deposits near the junctions. The modeled tip electric field is generally lower than the breakdown field unless the pre‐dart‐leader channel has a significant temperature of 3,000 K. This is consistent with the fact that dart leaders typically do not form new branches into the virgin air. Furthermore, the tip field is generally close to the negative streamer stability field at ambient temperatures, explaining the nature of the narrow and well‐defined channel structure. In addition to the charge distribution and the ambient and tip electric field, the development of the channel potential and current distribution are also presented.

3D lightning mapping↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the strength of selection for new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Abstract Controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic becomes increasingly challenging as the virus adapts to human hosts through the continual emergence of more transmissible variants. Simply observing that a variant is increasing in frequency is relatively straightforward, but more sophisticated methodology is needed to determine whether a new variant is a global threat and the magnitude of its selective advantage. We present two models for quantifying the strength of selection for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the background of contemporaneous variants. These methods range from a detailed model of dynamics within one country to a broad analysis across all countries, and they include alternative explanations such as migration and drift. We find evidence for strong selection favoring the D614G spike mutation and B.1.1.7 (Alpha), weaker selection favoring B.1.351 (Beta), and no advantage of R.1 after it spreads beyond Japan. Cutting back data to earlier time horizons reveals that uncertainty is large very soon after emergence, but that estimates of selection stabilize after several weeks. Our results also show substantial heterogeneity among countries, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unified theoretical framework for black carbon mixing state allows greater accuracy of climate effect estimation

Black carbon (BC) plays an important role in the climate system because of its strong warming effect, yet the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain owing to the complex mixing state of aerosols. Here we build a unified theoretical framework to describe BC’s mixing states, linking dynamic processes to BC coating thickness distribution, and show its self-similarity for sites in diverse environments. The size distribution of BC-containing particles is found to follow a universal law and is independent of BC core size. A new mixing state module is established based on this finding and successfully applied in global and regional models, which increases the accuracy of aerosol climate effect estimations. Our theoretical framework links observations with model simulations in both mixing state description and light absorption quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A deep neural network regressor for phase constitution estimation in the high entropy alloy system Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Mn-Nb-Ni

High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) are composed of more than one principal element and constitute a major paradigm in metals research. The HEA space is vast and an exhaustive exploration is improbable. Therefore, a thorough estimation of the phases present in the HEA is of paramount importance for alloy design. Machine Learning presents a feasible and non-expensive method for predicting possible new HEAs on-the-fly. A deep neural network (DNN) model for the elemental system of: Mn, Ni, Fe, Al, Cr, Nb, and Co is developed using a dataset generated by high-throughput computational thermodynamic calculations using Thermo-Calc. The features list used for the neural network is developed based on literature and freely available databases. A feature significance analysis matches the reported HEAs phase constitution trends on elemental properties and further expands it by providing so far-overlooked features. The final regressor has a coefficient of determination ( r 2 ) greater than 0.96 for identifying the most recurrent phases and the functionality is tested by running optimization tasks that simulate those required in alloy design. The DNN developed constitutes an example of an emulator that can be used in fast, real-time materials discovery/design tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the randomness of quantum circuit ensembles up to 50 qubits

Random quantum circuits have been utilized in the contexts of quantum supremacy demonstrations, variational quantum algorithms for chemistry and machine learning, and blackhole information. The ability of random circuits to approximate any random unitaries has consequences on their complexity, expressibility, and trainability. To study this property of random circuits, we develop numerical protocols for estimating the frame potential, the distance between a given ensemble and the exact randomness. Our tensor-network-based algorithm has polynomial complexity for shallow circuits and is high-performing using CPU and GPU parallelism. We study 1. local and parallel random circuits to verify the linear growth in complexity as stated by the Brown–Susskind conjecture, and; 2. hardware-efficient ansätze to shed light on its expressibility and the barren plateau problem in the context of variational algorithms. Our work shows that large-scale tensor network simulations could provide important hints toward open problems in quantum information science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating energy consumption and GHG emissions in the U.S. food supply chain for net-zero

This work provides a database of the U.S. food system’s energy consumption and GHG emissions at the national and state levels by food supply chain (FSC) stage, fuel type, and food commodity. We estimate that the U.S. FSC consumed a total 4660 TBTU (4900 PJ) of site energy, 7130 TBTU (7500 PJ) of primary energy, and generated 970 MMT of GHG emissions in 2016. Among all the stages, on-farm production is the largest energy consumer (31% primary energy) and GHG emissions contributor (70%), largely due to raising animals. Optimizing distribution can reduce the stage’s energy consumption and GHG emissions and increase products’ shelf-life. Reducing food loss and waste is another good option, as it decreases the amount of food necessary to grow, thus impacting the overall FSC. The database can help stakeholders identify stage- and region-specific strategies and measures to curtail the environmental footprint of the U.S. food system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase estimation algorithm for the multibeam optical metrology

Unitary Fourier transform lies at the core of the multitudinous computational and metrological algorithms. Here we show experimentally how the unitary Fourier transform-based phase estimation protocol, used namely in quantum metrology, can be translated into the classical linear optical framework. The developed setup made of beam splitters, mirrors and phase shifters demonstrates how the classical coherence, similarly to the quantum coherence, poses a resource for obtaining information about the measurable physical quantities. Our study opens route to the reliable implementation of the small-scale unitary algorithms on path-encoded qudits, thus establishing an easily accessible platform for unitary computation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Label-free X-ray estimation of brain amyloid burden

Amyloid plaque deposits in the brain are indicative of Alzheimer’s and other diseases. Measurements of brain amyloid burden in small animals require laborious post-mortem histological analysis or resource-intensive, contrast-enhanced imaging techniques. We describe a label-free method based on spectral small-angle X-ray scattering with a polychromatic beam for in vivo estimation of brain amyloid burden. Our findings comparing 5XFAD versus wild-type mice correlate well with histology, showing promise for a fast and practical in vivo technique.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nanoscale defect evaluation framework combining real-time transmission electron microscopy and integrated machine learning-particle filter estimation

Observation of dynamic processes by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is an attractive technique to experimentally analyze materials’ nanoscale phenomena and understand the microstructure-properties relationships in nanoscale. Even if spatial and temporal resolutions of real-time TEM increase significantly, it is still difficult to say that the researchers quantitatively evaluate the dynamic behavior of defects. Images in TEM video are a two-dimensional projection of three-dimensional space phenomena, thus missing information must be existed that makes image’s uniquely accurate interpretation challenging. Therefore, even though they are still a clustering high-dimensional data and can be compressed to two-dimensional, conventional statistical methods for analyzing images may not be powerful enough to track nanoscale behavior by removing various artifacts associated with experiment; and automated and unbiased processing tools for such big-data are becoming mission-critical to discover knowledge about unforeseen behavior. We have developed a method to quantitative image analysis framework to resolve these problems, in which machine learning and particle filter estimation are uniquely combined. The quantitative and automated measurement of the dislocation velocity in an Fe-31Mn-3Al-3Si autunitic steel subjected to the tensile deformation was performed to validate the framework, and an intermittent motion of the dislocations was quantitatively analyzed. The framework is successfully classifying, identifying and tracking nanoscale objects; these are not able to be accurately implemented by the conventional mean-path based analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of the orientation of stress in the Earth’s crust without earthquake or borehole data

Abstract Mechanical stress acting in the Earth’s crust is a fundamental property that is important for a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. The orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress can be estimated by inverting earthquake source mechanisms and measured directly from borehole-based measurements, but large regions of the continents have few or no observations. Here we present an approach to determine the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress by measuring stress-induced anisotropy of nonlinear susceptibility, which is the derivative of elastic modulus with respect to strain. Laboratory and Earth experiments show that nonlinear susceptibility is azimuthally dependent in an anisotropic stress field and is maximum in the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress. We observe this behavior in the Earth—in Oklahoma and New Mexico, U.S.A, where maximum nonlinear susceptibility coincides with the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress measured using traditional methods. Our measurements use empirical Green’s functions and solid-earth tides and can be applied at different temporal and spatial scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved constraints on hematite refractive index for estimating climatic effects of dust aerosols

Abstract Uncertainty in desert dust composition poses a big challenge to understanding Earth’s climate across different epochs. Of particular concern is hematite, an iron-oxide mineral dominating the solar absorption by dust particles, for which current estimates of absorption capacity vary by over two orders of magnitude. Here, we show that laboratory measurements of dust composition, absorption, and scattering provide valuable constraints on the absorption potential of hematite, substantially narrowing its range of plausible values. The success of this constraint is supported by results from an atmospheric transport model compared with station-based measurements. Additionally, we identify substantial bias in simulating hematite abundance in dust aerosols with current soil mineralogy descriptions, underscoring the necessity for improved data sources. Encouragingly, the next-generation imaging spectroscopy remote sensing data hold promise for capturing the spatial variability of hematite. These insights have implications for enhancing dust modeling, thus contributing to efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

A framework for data-driven solution and parameter estimation of PDEs using conditional generative adversarial networks

We employ and adapt the image-to-image translation concept based on conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) for learning a forward and an inverse solution operator of partial differential equations (PDEs). We focus on steady-state solutions of coupled hydromechanical processes in heterogeneous porous media and present the parameterization of the spatially heterogeneous coefficients, which is exceedingly difficult using standard reduced-order modeling techniques. We show that our framework provides a speed-up of at least 2,000 times compared to a finite-element solver and achieves a relative root-mean-square error (r.m.s.e.) of less than 2% for forward modeling. For inverse modeling, the framework estimates the heterogeneous coefficients, given an input of pressure and/or displacement fields, with a relative r.m.s.e. of less than 7%, even for cases where the input data are incomplete and contaminated by noise. The framework also provides a speed-up of 120,000 times compared to a Gaussian prior-based inverse modeling approach while also delivering more accurate results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗