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Seance de formation de l'USAID en Haiti n3: Expansion des capacites [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88837 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications at from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89408 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89412 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88838 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89389 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advancements in Development and Testing of Thermal Power Dispatch Simulators

Flexible plant operations and generation (FPOG) offer nuclear power plants (NPPs) the chance to leverage alternative, non-electric revenue streams while ensuring their continued role as reliable, clean, and constant sources of baseload electrical power. The excess thermal energy generated from NPPs during periods of low electricity demand can be channeled as raw materials to numerous industrial processes via a thermal power dispatch (TPD) system. Hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) is an optimal use case based on technical and economic feasibility. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have conducted previous works that developed and implemented TPD system models within the GSE Solutions Generic Pressurized Water Reactor (GPWR) simulator to support human-in-the-loop (HITL) scenario-based evaluations. The first part of this report documents modifications made to the GPWR TPD model and HMI from the previous iteration in line with a new Sargent and Lundy (S&L) TPD design with an automatic control system. The was done in collaboration with Westinghouse using their three-loop pressurizer water reactor (W3LPWR) simulator which contains an industrial grade automatic control system for the TPD. This was installed in the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL. The second part of the report documents findings from an all-hands-on-deck integration and verification workshop that was conducted in the HSSL over several days. The research team comprised INL human factors and TPD experts, a nuclear engineer from GSE Solutions who implemented the revised TPD model for GPWR, the human-machine interface (HMI) prototyping and human factors team from the University of Idaho, and personnel with operations experience with pressurized water reactors. The workshop provided time and expertise to conduct the final activities to bring the operations, HMI, and simulator into a functional state. The goals of the integration and verification workshop were: 1. to install the revised GPWR TPD model into the HSSL 2. verify the TPD HMI prototype was functional 3. integrate the HTSE Simulink model to GPWR. 3. Issues were identified for resolution, but overall the workshop accomplished its goal to integrated and verify the majority of the intended functional. Future work will resolve the identified issues and use the integrated simulation to support an evaluation and demonstration in the next fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - September 2024 Meeting Notes

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. Commercial nuclear power plants. A collaborative U.S. and Japanese effort was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy to identify Daiichi examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. This document summarizes information presented at and findings, action items, and recommendations by U.S. and Japanese experts in reactor safety and plant operations during the September 2024 Forensics Effort meeting. Significant safety insights were obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties and knowledge gaps in severe accident modeling progression, these insights continue to be used to assess whether additional updates are needed in guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional safety and economic benefits to the operating fleet and new light water reactor (LWR) and non-LWR designs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Data Center Market Report

The data center market is poised to explode in the coming decade due to undeniable drivers such as continued adoption of generative AI, increased data storage needs, and enterprise integration of AI in numerous industries [1] [2] [3]. Scalable power and increased computational capacity are at the forefront of considerations for hyperscalers, the major cloud service providers in this space. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is uniquely poised to help with informed decision making for data center market leaders during this phase of explosive expansion. National grid modeling expertise and cutting edge innovations in computer cooling systems place LLNL in an enviable position for creating economic impact in the data center industry by leveraging its expertise in these areas which can help the data center market keep up with growing demand.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact Analysis of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse Coupling Effects on Power Grid Protection Relays

Protection relays are important equipment used for protection, control, and metering functions in the power grid. These relays are used to protect critical and difficult-to-replace equipment, like generators, transformers, and capacitor banks. Once the protection devices are disturbed or damaged, a high risk of power generation interruption occurs. Therefore, it is important and necessary to study the relay’s immunity to electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events. As a preliminary step toward empirical experimentation on actual equipment, this manuscript outlines an economical and efficient methodology for evaluating the impact of an EMP. An impedance measurement strategy was employed to model the equipment, setting the stage for subsequent immunity analyses. These analyses included the pulse current injection (PCI) method, which utilized an injecting probe to introduce the transient, and frequency domain electromagnetic (FEKO) simulation, which integrated electromagnetic coupling effects into the transient simulation. The impedance measurement and simulation results in this paper provide a reliable basis for gauging equipment performance in the face of HEMP threats. The results obtained using the PCI and FEKO simulations demonstrated the performance of different port responses under a high-altitude EMP, indicating the requirement for some protection to ensure the reliable operation of relays.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Global anthropogenic emissions (CAMS-GLOB-ANT) for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service simulations of air quality forecasts and reanalyses

Anthropogenic emissions are the result of many different economic sectors, including transportation, power generation, industrial, residential and commercial activities, waste treatment and agricultural practices. Air quality models are used to forecast the atmospheric composition, analyze observations and reconstruct the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the previous decades. In order to drive these models, gridded emissions of all compounds need to be provided. This paper describes a new global inventory of emissions called CAMS-GLOB-ANT, developed as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS; https://doi.org/10.24380/eets-qd81, Soulie et al., 2023). The inventory provides monthly averages of the global emissions of 36 compounds, including the main air pollutants and greenhouse gases, at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° in latitude and longitude, for 17 emission sectors. The methodology to generate the emissions for the 2000–2023 period is explained, and the datasets are analyzed and compared with publicly available global and regional inventories for selected world regions. Depending on the species and regions, good agreements as well as significant differences are highlighted, which can be further explained through an analysis of different sectors as shown in the figures in the Supplement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

History Matching and Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope is ongoing. After more than 3 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is less than that of the same polymer used in a polymer pilot in Argentina.

Wang, Xindan↗

Techno-Economic Comparison of Molten-Salt Electrolysis and Carbothermic Reduction for the Production of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon

Metallurgical-grade silicon (MG-Si) is an important source material for many industrial applications, including the manufacture of alloys, solar photovoltaics, and electronics. The process to refine raw materials into MG-Si is energy-intensive, with the predominant method of submerged-arc furnaces requiring energy consumption of approximately 11–13 kWh/kg Si. Recent research has discussed promising methods for reducing the energy required for the silicon production process, including the use of molten-salt electrolysis (MSE), a technique that offers potential savings in energy consumption without requiring carbon inputs for the process. This paper presents a techno-economic study of a potential industrial-scale MSE plant for MG-Si production to evaluate the trade-offs between capital and operating costs of the system. Capital costs are sourced from recent MG-Si plants and an existing cost model developed for MSE processes that includes the size of the plant and the operating temperature among its inputs. The results show that MSE technology has the potential to be an economically cost-competitive option for MG-Si production if the technology successfully scales to industrial production and matures enough to allow for financing costs similar to that of a comparably sized submerged-arc furnace plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Influence of Diffuse and Ground-Reflected Irradiance on the Spectral Modeling of Solar Reference Cells

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a key component for solar thermal applications to bridge the gap between the demand for thermal energy and the supply of solar energy, whose availability depends on the time of day and season. Thus, cost-effective packed-bed thermal containers filled with a solid storage medium have been proposed for high-temperature sensible heat storage as materials are abundant and relatively cheap. Thus, it is necessary to investigate their performance and temperature profiles during the charge-discharge cycle. Several models are available for this purpose. Typically, the more detailed a model, the greater the computational effort required to solve it, and hence a time-efficient model is needed to prevent excessively long computation times for long-term analysis. At the more basic level, the common Hughes E-NTU model and the less realistic simplified Infinite-NTU model are very important for their less time and computational effort. In this paper, the appropriateness of employing the Infinite-NTU model was evaluated to investigate the performance of a typical and scalable rock-bed TES as a case study. The results presented provide a methodology to quickly test the validity of the model and predict the temperature profile for the case under study. Accordingly, such simple charge-discharge cycle thermal performance predictions are important to plan, design, and rapidly deploy a reliable and economical solar thermal system for the supply of valuable heat to high-temperature demanding applications of power generation and industrial processes as part of a rapid shift towards non-polluting renewable energy. Keywords: Solar Thermal, TES, Packed-bed, NTU model, Temperature profile

PV modeling↗

Multi-Fidelity Stochastic Economic Dispatch for Operating Low Carbon Power Grids

Grid operators can address the inherently stochastic nature of renewables by solving a two-stage stochastic programming model that minimizes the cost of dispatch decisions while accounting for the complex grid dynamics. It is common to use a sample average approximation to estimate the expectation of the second stage costs in this model. However, the large sample count needed for numerical accuracy makes effective modeling large-scale electric grids computationally intractable. We introduce a control variate multi-fidelity estimator for the second-stage recourse that enables high quality dispatch decisions in real-time with a reduced computational burden. We obtain a hierarchy of model fidelities by linearizing the AC power flow system representation to DC power flow, and by relaxing transmission and voltage network constraints. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on a synthetic grid with 73 buses against a deterministic baseline with persistence forecast and a high-fidelity reference. Our analysis shows a computational speed-up of 7.62x with a minimal loss in accuracy. The multi-fidelity method is well suited to fidelity combinations that use a simplified network topology in their lower fidelity model and is an attractive option for applications where accurate grid modeling needed on a limited computational budget.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗