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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

RACEE: Port Lions Community Energy Efficiency Project

The City of Port Lions is one of several villages located on Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Founded in 1964, Port Lions was built through the joint efforts of the Bureau of Indian Affairs, Lions International, the Public Health Service, and other organizations for the displaced residents of Afognak which was destroyed by a tsunami caused by the Good Friday Earthquake.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior [Slides]

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better integrate friction constitutive laws for faults to improve our ability to predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites. We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, using lab measurements of friction parameters, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. These simulations will enable exploration of various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reverse Time Migration of Explosion-generated Infrasound and Ground-Coupled Airwaves

Accurately locating sources of seismic and infrasonic energy is integral to global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions. Infrasound arrivals times can be used to calculate the origins of events that generate acoustic energy. Picking times of emergent infrasound arrivals, however, can be difficult and prone to uncertainty. Reverse time migration (RTM) is a waveform based location method that does not rely on picked arrival times. Here we use RTM to locate a known chemical explosion that generated acoustic and acoustic-to-seismic signals on 26 and 108 receivers, respectively. All location predictions are less than 24 km from the known location with time errors of less than three minutes. We find strong overall agreement between our results and those of existing RTM and arrival time based methods. Our initial results suggest that RTM is a promising method of event location using acoustic arrivals recorded on both infrasound and seismic instrumentation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Seismic Shake Table Test Plan

The Spent Fuel Waste Disposition (SFWD) program is planning to conduct a full-scale seismic shake table test on the dry storage systems of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) to close the gap related to seismic loads on fuel assemblies in dry storage systems. This test will allow for quantifying the strains and accelerations on surrogate fuel assembly hardware and cladding during earthquakes of different magnitudes and frequency content. Full-scale testing is needed because a dry storage system is a complex and highly nonlinear system making it hard to predict (model) the responses to seismic excitations. The non-linearity arises from the multiple spatial gaps in the system – between fuel rods and the basket, between the basket and dry storage canister, between the dry storage canister and the storage cask (overpack), and ventilation gaps. The non-linearities pose significant limitations on the value of tests with scaled systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Dynamic Time Warping Can Assist Conventional Cross-correlation

Waveform cross-correlation is a sensitive phase-matched filtering technique that can detect seismic events for nuclear explosion monitoring. However, there are outstanding challenges with correlation detectors, most notably a direct dependence on the completeness of the waveform template library. To ameliorate these challenges, we investigate how dynamic time warping (DTW) may make waveform correlation more robust. DTW analyzes the differences between two time series and attempts to “warp” one time series relative to another in a recursive manner. We apply DTW to synthetic earthquake and recorded explosion templates to expand the capability of correlation detectors. We explore what conditions (e.g., source, station distance, frequency bands) and/or DTW algorithms generate stronger correlation scores. We show that DTW performs well on noisy signals and can dramatically improve the cross-correlation coefficient between a template and data-stream waveform. We conclude with recommendations on how to utilize DTW in nuclear monitoring detection.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rock Valley Direct Comparison Relocation Working Group Location Results and Recommendations

Work accomplished: Collected and compared historic data for the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence; Compared preliminary and prior location work from different location algorithms, phase pick sets, station constellations, and velocity models; Selected a common set of stations that could be used across all location methods for consistency; Reviewed 8 different sets of phase picks and converged on a single, reviewed set of picks for all common stations; Evaluated four pre-existing regional velocity models and incorporated new and preliminary results for five new velocity models that provide information on the very shallow (< 2km) structure near station RTPP; Compared location results from different methods while using the common sets of picks, stations, and velocity models

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Catalog of Temporally Localized Systematic Deviations in Global Body Wave Travel-Time Measurements

Accurate measurements of the arrival times of seismic waves are crucial for seismological analyses such as robust locations of earthquakes, characterization of seismic sources, and high-fidelity imaging of the Earth’s interior. However, these travel-time measurements can sometimes be contaminated by timing errors at the stations which record this data. In this study, we apply a classical approach, based on identifying time-dependence in measured body wave arrival times, to identify these timing errors in a dataset on the order of 107 individual measurements. We find timing deviations at a subset of the stations in our dataset and document the temporal location, extent, and severity of these errors, finding errors at 83 stations, and impacting ~100,000 measurements. This catalog of deviations may enable future investigators to obtain a more accurate dataset through the implementation of quality control measures to eliminate the contaminated data we have identified.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Tables for Infrasound Event Catalogs with a Focus on Machine Learning

Natural and anthropogenic sources such as volcanoes, earthquakes, auroral processes, chemical and nuclear explosions, rocket launches, and aircraft can generate infrasound, sound with frequencies less than 20 Hz. Both the availability of infrasound data and interest in machine learning (ML) applications have grown in recent years. Large, open-source datasets are essential to solving complex ML problems, but the field of infrasound is lacking in this arena. To increase the utility of ML for infrasound, here we present new tables for infrasound event catalogs. It is the aim that these tables be incorporated into both existing and future infrasound processing pipelines to generate large datasets ripe for use with ML/DL methods.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Friction Experiment Data Analysis

The Spent Fuel Waste Disposition (SFWD) program under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is planning a seismic shake table test of full-scale dry storage systems of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) to close the gap related to the seismic loads on the fuel assemblies in dry storage systems. This test will allow for quantifying the strains and accelerations on surrogate fuel assembly during representative earthquakes. A concrete layer will be installed on the shake table before the test to simulate conditions representative of an ISFSI pad. In the shake table tests with the vertical cask, the cask will be free-standing because this is representative of all, except two, ISFSIs in the U.S. with vertical dry storage casks. The static and dynamic friction coefficients between the steel bottom of the cask and the concrete layer on the shake table are important parameters that will affect cask behavior during the test. These parameters must be known for the pre- and post-test modelling, data analysis, and model validation. The friction experiment was performed at the Engineering Department of the University of New Mexico (UNM) to determine the friction coefficients between a steel plate with the same finish as the bottom of the vertical cask manufactured for the test and different concrete surfaces. In this experiment the steel plate was fixed and the concrete sample was pulled over the plate with a constant displacement rate using an MTS machine. This allowed for collecting continuous horizontal force data over the length of the steel plate. Four displacement rates and three vertical loads were used. The tests were performed with four concrete blocks with different degrees of the surface roughness - light sandblast, light to medium sandblast, medium bush hammer, and heavy sandblast. The total number of tests was 48. The data were used to calculate static and dynamic friction coefficients.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Regional Phase Amplitude Model of 2-D Attenuation for North America

We analyzed seismic attenuation patterns across the North America using over 70,000,000 Lg wave amplitudes recorded by the various networks at frequencies of 0.1-32 Hz. Our inversion solved for laterally varying attenuation, site terms, moments, and apparent stress following Phillips et al., (2016). The inversion was anchored by independently constrained: corner frequencies (via coda spectral ratios) to control the attenuation-stress tradeoff and moment measurements of teleseismic (GCMT, USGS) and regional (St. Louis University and UC Berkeley) earthquakes to provided absolute scaling. The quality factor (Q) shows clear regional patterns: low values in coastal, volcanic, and tectonically active regions, and high values in stable areas like the Great Plains and major plateaus throughout North America. These 2-D Q models enable improved regional source characterization, magnitude estimation, and yield determination.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Azerbaijan

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) underpin the determination of seismic loads in most contemporary seismic provisions of building codes around the world. Modern building codes are migrating towards using the entire uniform hazard spectrum at a range of vibration periods (typically up to 4 s or 10 s) rather than a single peak value such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), thus requiring a larger range of PSHA outputs. The hazard maps in the current version of the building code of Azerbaijan (2011) are in terms of intensity and peak ground acceleration. Recognizing the need for an up-to-date seismic hazard assessment in the country, Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) under the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) undertook, in coordination with the Republican Seismic Survey Center of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences and the Azerbaijan Scientific Research Institute of Construction and Architecture, a PSHA study that reflects new seismic data recorded locally and recent research conducted nationally and regionally since the last update to the building code. The PSHA framework for this project was designed to help develop a new earthquake catalogue, to incorporate a novel characterization of ground motions that specifically reflects the attenuation characteristics in the eastern Caucasus, and to generate hazard information in a form that is useful for an update of the current building code or the development of a new building code for Azerbaijan. The project also aimed to provide training and support for the local seismologists and engineers related to the seismic hazard models, probabilistic seismic hazard results and their use towards changes in the building code.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NA-22 Quarterly Report: IST for Extended Deterrence (Q4FY24)

Department of Energy (DOE) scientists have long enjoyed technical collaboration with Japanese colleagues – valuing their technical and scientific prowess in materials science and engineering, large-scale, scientific computing, and many other areas. In particular, NNSA’s laboratories are attractive partners for this effort because they have a heritage of performing high quality, basic research; they work with an awareness of the dual use nature of emerging science and technology; and, importantly, they work with deep national security sensibilities through engagement with NNSA and other national security mission responsibilities. Other DOE laboratories with significant national security bona fides are also significant collaborators. In FY23 a Trilateral Leaders Summit was convened at Camp David. The DOE was given responsibility for “Trilateral National Laboratories Cooperation: The United States, Japan, and the ROK will drive new trilateral cooperation between the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Laboratories and counterpart laboratories—supported by a budget of at least $6 million—to advance knowledge, strengthen scientific collaboration, and spearhead innovation in support of the three countries’ shared interests. Scientists and innovators from the three countries will advance collaborative projects on priority critical and emerging technology areas; potential areas of cooperation include advanced computing, artificial intelligence, materials research, and climate and earthquake modeling among other technology areas.”

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adjoint waveform tomography of East Asia for improved waveform prediction

We present a preliminary version of the East Asia Tomography (EAT) model, an adjoint waveform tomography model of East and Southeast Asia. We used SPiRaL (Simmons et al., 2021) as our starting model and source parameters for 238 earthquakes from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue (Ekström et al., 2012). After 50 iterations on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Lassen supercomputer, we converge on a model with a minimum period of 50 seconds. The preliminary model shows improved slab structure compared to SPiRaL and shows significantly reduced misfit. In later versions of the model, we aim to harness techniques proposed in other studies to improve waveform predictions that travel through the ocean (e.g., Wehner et al., 2022) and use relative amplitude-based misfit functions (e.g., Tao et al., 2018) to better constrain Earth structure. We hope to iterate the current extent of the model to 25 seconds minimum period before iterating to shorter periods for a smaller subregion of the full model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Storage Site Mapping Inquiry Tool (MapIT)

To date, 48 projects, consisting of 139 wells, are currently under review with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for Class VI – wells used for geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. The number of applications submitted is expected to increase in coming years with the increase of the 45Q tax credit available to projects that initiate construction prior to 2033. The amount of data collected to submit a Class VI permit is vast, and often disparate, coming from state, federal, and commercial entities, as well as field-specific data collected within an area of interest. When preparing for site selection and permitting, the initial aggregation of relevant public data can be time intensive. The Carbon Storage Site Mapping Inquiry tool (MapIT) was created to support and accelerate the discovery and accessibility of open-source data and information available across the USA. Data was aggregated and organized based on data types described within the EPA UIC Class VI permit documentation. The online tool enables users to explore hundreds of geospatial data layers and connect to additional external resources, leveraging API and REST services where possible to ensure updates to data in real time. MapIT enables users to explore state and federal data related to geologic, geophysical, structural, hydrologic, and contextual information. In addition to displaying spatial data and linking to external resources, MapIT leverages custom widgets to ensure that internal data and external data are discoverable and accessible. The widgets connect users to resources such as the USGS publications and the USGS Earthquake Catalog based on a user-defined location. This talk will describe data aggregation workflows, data types, data preparation, and tool development for MapIT. The Carbon Storage Site Mapping Inquiry Tool and underlying database are valuable, intuitive resources that empower government, academic, commercial and industry stakeholders to explore, analyze, and acquire carbon storage related data.

Morkner, Paige↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Temperature Effects on GS-13 Short Period Sensors Utilizing Sandia's Seismic Sensor Temperature Testbed

Sandia National Laboratories has fabricated a Seismic Sensor Temperature Testbed (SSTT) suitable for exposing sensors under test to a range of reasonably stable temperatures while a co-located reference sensor is maintained at room temperature. The testbed has proven sufficiently quiet to allow recording of high-coherence signals from regional earthquakes in the passband of the seismometers, allowing a direct comparison of signals between the sensors under test and the reference sensor.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database: Spatial Datasets to Support Carbon Storage Resource Assessments

Presentation slides on &quot;Basin-Scale Structural Features Database: Spatial Datasets to Support Carbon Storage Resource Assessments&quot; for CCUS 2025 Annual Meeting. The Basin-Scale Structural Features database contains a series of basin-scale spatial datasets representing structural features, including faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes. Designed to support carbon storage feasibility and resources assessments for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, the database leverages publicly available data resources from authoritative sources (e.g. US Geological Survey, State Geologic Surveys), and aims to help users better understand basin-scale structural features, as well as potential data gaps in areas with sparse information.

basin scale↗