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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring Plant Acclimation and Improving Model Generalizability With Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning of Photosynthesis

Net photosynthesis (A N ) is a key component of the global carbon cycle influencing climate feedback over decadal scales. Although plant acclimation to environmental changes can modify A N , traditional vegetation models in Earth system models (ESMs) often rely on plant functional type (PFT)-specific parameterizations or simplified acclimation assumptions limiting generalizability across time, space, and PFTs. In this study, we developed a differentiable photosynthesis model to learn the environmental dependencies of V c,max25 (maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C, representing photosynthetic capacity), as this genre of hybrid physics-informed machine learning can seamlessly train neural networks and process-based equations together. Compared to PFT-specific parameterization of V c,max25 , learning the environment dependencies of key photosynthetic parameters improved model spatiotemporal generalizability. Applying environmental acclimation to V c,max25 led to substantial variations in global mean A N indicating the need to address acclimation in ESMs. The model effectively captured multivariate observations (V c,max25 , A N , and stomatal conductance (g s )) simultaneously with multivariate constraints, improving generalization across space and PFTs. It also learned sensible acclimation relationships of V c,max25 to different environmental conditions. The model explained more than 54%, 57%, and 62% of the variance of A N , g s , and V c,max25 , respectively, presenting a first global-scale spatial test benchmark of A N and g s . These results highlight the potential for differentiable modeling to enhance process-based modules in ESMs and effectively leverage information from large, multivariate data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability

Snow plays a critical role in carbon cycling, vegetation dynamics, and permafrost hydrology at high latitudes by influencing surface energy exchange. Predicting snow distribution patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of Arctic ecosystems, yet scaling process-level knowledge to landscape predictions remains challenging. Here, we analyze snow depth (2019 and 2022), terrain elevation, and vegetation height from a watershed on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, to examine how topography and shrubs shape snow redistribution across spatial scales. We find that snow depth is strongly coupled to terrain at scales below ∼60 m but becomes increasingly decoupled at larger scales. The topographic model of snow depth variation, which transforms terrain data to align with these scale-dependent snow patterns, is well correlated with local snow depth variations (linear fit R 2 > 0.5 for 85% of 100-m patches). A machine learning reconstruction of shrub canopy snow trapping reveals a simple exponential relationship between canopy structure and snow accumulation ( R 2 = 0.59), highlighting the combined influence of topography and vegetation on snow distribution. Together, these empirical relationships capture much of the observed snow variability in the watershed ( R 2 = 0.49, root mean square error (RMSE) = 30 cm), though systematic limitations persist in areas of strong scour and at coarser scales where wind-terrain interactions are more complex. These findings provide a framework for more efficient snow depth prediction and offer insights to improve snow-vegetation feedback representation in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Mechanisms Driving Differences in the Characteristics of Precipitation in the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework With 2D Versus 3D Cloud Resolving Model Configurations

Abstract In this study, we compare the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM) multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with the cloud resolving model (CRM) configured in two (2dMMF) and three (3dMMF) dimensions. We explore how CRM dimensionality impacts the representation of mean and extreme precipitation characteristics. Our results show that tropical mean precipitation patterns are better represented in 3dMMF compared to observations (Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrivals for GPM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project One Degree Daily products), while 2dMMF better captures extreme precipitation intensity, with systematic land‐ocean differences in precipitation and cloud‐associated variables. These differences are attributed to the co‐occurrence of CRM throttling (i.e., suppressed convection in due to smaller numbers of CRM columns and domain size) and dilution (i.e., 3‐D cloud circulations with increased entrainment and lower precipitation efficiency) effects. Overall, throttling results in more low‐level humidity in 2dMMF and dilution contributes to more high clouds with less precipitation efficiency in 3dMMF. Since throttling occurs more strongly over the ocean than land, the 3dMMF tends to have less cloud liquid and precipitation over the ocean and more cloud ice and precipitation over land. These results may serve as a guide for choosing the CRM structure to reduce precipitation and cloud‐related biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELM–Wet: Inclusion of a Wet–Landunit With Sub–Grid Representation of Eco–Hydrological Patches and Hydrological Forcing Improves Methane Emission Estimations in the E3SM Land Model (ELM)

Wetlands are the largest emitters of biogenic methane (CH 4 ) and represent the highest source of uncertainty in global CH 4 budgets. Here, we aim to improve the realism of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Earth System Model land surface model, ELM, thereby reducing uncertainty of CH 4 flux predictions. We develop an updated version, ELM-Wet, where we activate a separate landunit for wetlands that handles multiple wetland-specific eco-hydrological patch functional types. We introduce more realistic hydrological forcing through prescribing site-level constraints on surface water elevation, which allows resolving different sustained inundation depth for different patches, and if data exists, prescribing inundation depth. We modified the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance per leaf area for different vegetation types. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the developed wet-landunit. Site-level simulations of a coastal non-tidal freshwater wetland in Louisiana were performed with the updated model. Eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from 2012 to 2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. Patch-specific chamber flux observations and observations of CH 4 concentration profiles in the soil porewater from 2021 were used for evaluation of the model performance. Our results show that ELM-Wet reduces the model's CH 4 emission root mean squared error by up to 33% and is able to represent inter-daily CO 2 and CH 4 flux variability across the wetland's eco-hydrological patches, including during periods of extreme dry or wet conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2

Abstract The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly‐westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi‐scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.

E3SM↗
DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part II: Case Studies

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper that documents the Climate Model version 4X (CM4X) hierarchy of coupled climate models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Part I of this paper is presented in Griffies et al. (2025a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004861 ). Here we present a suite of case studies that examine ocean and sea ice features that are targeted for further research, which include sea level, eastern boundary upwelling, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice, Southern Ocean circulation, and North Atlantic circulation. The case studies are based on experiments that follow the protocol of version 6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis reveals a systematic improvement in the simulation fidelity of CM4X relative to its CM4.0 predecessor, as well as an improvement when refining the ocean/sea ice horizontal grid spacing from the 0.25° of CM4X‐p25 to the 0.125° of CM4X‐p125. Even so, there remain many outstanding biases, thus pointing to the need for further grid refinements, enhancements to numerical methods, and/or advances in parameterizations, each of which target long‐standing model biases and limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Soil Microbial Dynamics and Organo‐Mineral Interactions in the E3SM Land Model (ELM‐ReSOM)

Explicit representation of soil microbial processes and interactions with biotic and abiotic processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) remains limited, despite their importance in biogeochemical cycles. To address this gap, which hinders prediction of global biogeochemial cycling and responses to atmospheric conditions, we integrated a microbe- and mineral-surface-explicit model, the Reaction-network-based model of soil organic matter and Microbes (ReSOM), into the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SM) land model (ELM). Here, we describe ELM-ReSOM and show a case study at a conifer forest in California. ELM-ReSOM accurately simulated surface CO 2 fluxes and SOM stocks, demonstrating improved representations of microbial and mineral interactions compared to the default ELM. We examined ELM-ReSOM sensitivity to microbial traits, enzyme properties, and organo-mineral interactions. Microbial traits such as the maximum mortality rate, transporter-density scaling factor, and maximum monomer assimilation rate were strong controllers of heterotrophic respiration, while these microbial traits and enzyme-related properties collectively influenced SOM stocks. Mineral surfaces primarily affected SOM stocks by adsorbing enzymes, thereby limiting depolymerization. Synergies among processes led to stronger impacts of parameters when evaluated together versus separately (i.e., most parameters had greater indirect than direct effects). For example, due to interactions of microbial necromass with mineral surface adsorption, the indirect effect of the maximum microbial mortality rate was 33% larger than its direct effect on SOM stock. Thus, microbial and enzyme dynamics and their interactions with mineral surfaces play critical roles in SOM cycling. Tackling the challenges of microbe-explicit models will advance understanding and modeling of SOM dynamics.

Tao, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Biases in Simulated Cloud Radiative Effects in E3SMv3

This study systematically investigates biases in cloud radiative effects (CREs) within the recently released Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3). Compared to its previous version (E3SMv2), E3SMv3 shows excessively strong shortwave CRE over tropical and subtropical oceans, the Southern Ocean, and the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, which is primarily caused by an overestimation of optically intermediate low clouds. The model also displays excessive longwave CRE over the Maritime Continent and other tropical deep convection regions, resulting from an overestimation of optically thick high clouds. Implementing the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme for stratiform clouds played the most significant role in these cloud changes. In addition, using a double-moment scheme for convective clouds contributed to the increase in intermediate low clouds and optically thick clouds in tropical deep convection regions. Error metrics for total cloud amount (E TCA ), cloud properties (E ctp-τ ), and cloud properties weighted by their SW and LW radiative impacts (E SW and E LW ) indicate that E3SMv3's ability to reproduce observed cloud radiative effect of low, middle, and high clouds has not been improved compared to E3SMv2. Nevertheless, the performance of E3SMv3 remains well within the spread of CMIP6 models, with E SW and E LW values smaller than those in most CMIP6 models. This study underscores the importance of integrating diverse satellite observations for robust cloud evaluation and using cloud-radiation relationships as consistency check for model errors. It suggests that further model developments focus on improving cloud microphysics and their interactions with radiation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

What CMIP6 Models Tell Us About the Impact of AMOC Variability on the Arctic

In this paper we address the question whether variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its associated heat transport at mid-latitudes impacts the Arctic Earth system. To that end, we perform coherence analysis on time series of ocean heat transport, AMOC strength, and Arctic climate metrics across a large number of models from the CMIP6 ensemble. We find that, on multidecadal timescales, the majority of CMIP6 models indeed display a statistically significant relationship between AMOC at mid-latitudes (45 °N) and metrics like Arctic surface air temperatures and sea ice. However, our results do not support the narrative that heat transport anomalies at lower latitudes propagate northward toward the Arctic. Instead, our results confirm that variability in meridional ocean heat transport arises in the subpolar North Atlantic and propagates southward and northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs

Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms of Projected Changes in Thunderstorm Downburst Environments Across the United States

Responses of downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) to global warming were investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) under a high‐emission scenario through the year 2100. DCAPE is projected to increase by 5%–12% on average in most areas, independently of wind shear. A diagnostic of downdraft buoyancy is introduced to understand the mechanisms of DCAPE responses. Much of the increase in mean DCAPE is temperature‐driven, with additional contributions from changes in relative humidity and downdraft origin heights. However, extreme values increase at much faster rates than can be explained by local warming. In winter, the latitude of significant DCAPE and CAPE shifts poleward by more than 5° due to larger changes in downburst environments within midlatitude cyclones. The projected increase in cold‐season extremes indicates an interaction between weather events and warming trends that increases the potential for downbursts and straight‐line winds in winter.

Williams, Ian N. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dampening of the Precipitation Response to Aerosol Pollution From Turbulence in Cumulus Clouds

Using aircraft observations and a cloud model with particle‐based microphysics, it is shown that the enhancement of drop collision‐coalescence from turbulence in clouds not only leads to earlier onset of rain in warm cumulus clouds as past studies have suggested, but also significantly dampens the precipitation susceptibility to aerosol loading. Enhanced drop coalescence from turbulence substantially increases the production of drizzle embryos just above cloud base, which in turn act as seeds that accelerate rain drop growth at mid and upper cloud levels even in highly polluted conditions. In contrast, pollution aerosols strongly inhibit rainfall when the commonly assumed gravitational‐only collision kernel is used and turbulent coalescence is neglected. Overall, turbulence‐enhanced drop coalescence strongly influences the response of warm cumulus clouds and precipitation to aerosol loading, suggesting that the effects of turbulent coalescence should be included in Earth system model representations of aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interactions and aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant [NSF National Center for At↗