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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Software Transition Project Retrospectives and the Application of SEL Effort Estimation Model and Boehm's COCOMO to Complex Software Transition Projects

The Multimission Image Processing Subsystem (MIPS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has managed transitions of application software sets from one operating system and hardware platform to multiple operating systems and hardware platforms. As a part of these transitions, cost estimates were generated from the personal experience of in-house developers and managers to calculate the total effort required for such projects. Productivity measures have been collected for two such transitions, one very large and the other relatively small in terms of source lines of code. These estimates used a cost estimation model similar to the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) Effort Estimation Model. Experience in transitioning software within JPL MIPS have uncovered a high incidence of interface complexity. Interfaces, both internal and external to individual software applications, have contributed to software transition project complexity, and thus to scheduling difficulties and larger than anticipated design work on software to be ported.

SEL Boehm COCOMO↗

Developing novel electrodes with ultralow catalyst loading for high-efficiency hydrogen production in proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells

Hydrogen plays more crucial roles for decarbonizing the planets and meeting the climate challenges because of its high energy density and zero-emission. It can be produced with proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells (PEMECs) driven by sustainable and renewable energy resources. Although PEMECs have a number of advantages, including high purity production, quick response, and the ability to operate at high pressure facilitating the gas delivering, their performance and cost greatly hinder their commercial-scale applications. To achieve high-efficiency and cost-reduced hydrogen production in PEMECs, we proposed thin engineered liquid/gas diffusion layers (LGDLs) and associated electrodes, i.e., catalyst-coated LGDLs (CCLGDLs), over conventional porous transport layers (PTLs) and catalyst-coated membranes (CCMs). The research approaches in this project are based on material synthesis, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations, component design and treatment, numerical modeling, and cost analysis. The thin and tunable LGDLs (TT-LGDLs) and CCLGDLs were successfully developed with great performance improvement as demonstrated in lab-scale, bench-scale, and system-scale electrolyzer tests. The electrode thickness was reduced from 370 µm to less than 100 µm with simplified fabrication processes. With the catalytically enhanced Ir-based catalyst coating, the as-developed CCLGDLs with a catalyst loading of 0.34 mg Ir /cm 2 achieved a cell performance of 1.77 V at 2 A cm -2 , exhibiting the catalyst mass activity enhanced by >20 times with significant catalyst saving over conventional catalyst cell design. In-situ PEMEC characterizations, including the current distribution mapping and high-speed and multiscale visualizations, were conducted for a deeper understanding of mass transport and electrochemical reactions within an electrolyzer with LGDLs and CCLGDLs. A 2D cell model was developed and validated for the enhanced performance on TT-LGDL through reducing ohmic losses due to nonuniform hydration and water transport. Further, the cost analysis results have shown a path to move beyond equivalency and surpass costs associated with the project baseline. In this project, the design and fabrication of TT-LGDLs and CCLGDLs will contribute to the performance enhancement, manufacturing simplification, and cost reduction for PEMECs and other energy conversion devices, thus shortening their pathways towards commercialization. This project also provides a good foundation for furthering the in-situ reaction interface research.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Environmental and Operational Costs

This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on environmental and operational costs. A linear climate model was first used to convert climate effects of carbon dioxide emissions and aircraft contrails to changes in Absolute Global Temperature Potential, a metric that measures the mean surface temperature change due to aircraft emissions and persistent contrail formations. The concept of social cost of carbon and the carbon auction price from recent California's cap-and-trade system were then used to relate the carbon dioxide emissions and contrail formations to an environmental cost index. The strategy for contrail reduction is based on minimizing contrail formations by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. The strategy uses a user-defined factor to trade off between contrail reduction and additional fuel burn and carbon dioxide emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction but also more fuel burn and carbon emissions. The strategy is considered favorable when the net environmental cost benefit exceeds the operational cost. The results show how the net environmental benefit varies with different decision-making time-horizon and different carbon cost. The cost models provide a guidance to select the trade-off factor that will result in the most net environmental benefit.

social cost of carbon↗

QES-Plume v1.0: a Lagrangian dispersion model

Low-cost simulations providing accurate predictions of transport of airborne material in urban areas, vegetative canopies, and complex terrain are demanding because of the small-scale heterogeneity of the features influencing the mean flow and turbulence fields. Common models used to predict turbulent transport of passive scalars are based on the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model. The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost framework developed to provide high-resolution wind and concentration fields in a variety of complex atmospheric-boundary-layer environments. Part of the framework, QES-Plume, is a Lagrangian dispersion code that uses a time-implicit integration scheme to solve the generalized Langevin equations which require mean flow and turbulence fields. Here, QES-Plume is driven by QES-Winds, a 3D fast-response model that computes mass-consistent wind fields around buildings, vegetation, and hills using empirical parameterizations, and QES-Turb, a local-mixing-length turbulence model. In this paper, the particle dispersion model is presented and validated against analytical solutions to examine QES-Plume’s performance under idealized conditions. In particular, QES-Plume is evaluated against a classical Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in uniform flow, the Lagrangian scaling of dispersion in isotropic turbulence, and a non-Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in a power-law boundary-layer flow. In these cases, QES-Plume yields a maximum relative error below 6 % when compared with analytical solutions. In addition, the model is tested against wind-tunnel data for a uniform array of cubical buildings. QES-Plume exhibits good agreement with the experiment with 99 % of matched zeros and 59 % of the predicted concentrations falling within a factor of 2 of the experimental concentrations. Furthermore, results also emphasize the importance of using high-quality turbulence models for particle dispersion in complex environments. Finally, QES-Plume demonstrates excellent computational performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Surrogate models for linear response

Linear response theory is a well-established method in physics and chemistry for exploring excitations of many-body systems. In particular, the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) provides a powerful microscopic framework by building excitations on top of the mean-field vacuum; however, its high computational cost limits model calibration and uncertainty quantification studies. Here, we present two complementary QRPA surrogate models and apply them to study response functions of finite nuclei. One is a reduced-order model that exploits the underlying QRPA structure, while the other utilizes the recently developed parametric matrix model algorithm to construct a map between the system’s Hamiltonian and observables. Our benchmark applications, the calculation of the electric dipole polarizability of 180 Yb and the 𝛽-decay half-life of 80 Ni, show that both emulators can achieve 0.1%–1% accuracy while offering a 6–7 orders of magnitude speedup compared to state-of-the-art QRPA solvers. These results demonstrate that the developed QRPA emulators are well positioned to enable Bayesian calibration and large-scale studies of computationally expensive physics models describing the properties of many-body systems.

Beta decay↗

Providing Levelized Cost and Waiting Time Inputs for HDV Hydrogen Refueling Station Planning: A Case Study of U.S. I-75 Corridor

Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.

Liu, Yuandong↗

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Investigating Application of LiDAR for Nuclear Power Plants

Many evaluation, assessment, and modeling tasks at nuclear power plants require spatial in-formation; this often requires physical visits to locations within the facility because the 2D or 3D schematics and current models do not contain enough detail or do not capture as-built and real-world conditions. These visits require extensive manual labor for not only the requesting party, but also support groups, such as security. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) mapping is trying to solve that problem by providing very detailed 3D models for low costs. However, the use of these models can be very limited because either component reference information is missing and too costly to add or there is no way to extract specific spatial data needed for other tools. This report outlines two main efforts. First, to reduce the effort of “Tagging” data in large 3D models, a general Application Programming Interface (API) was developed to import a variety of existing plant database information into a 3D-visualization engine. Filters allow the user to have only zone-specific items listed; then, they can simply click and assign the information to a specific spot or component in the 3D model. The second part of the work is the development of an interface for importing pieces from the3D-LiDAR model into other systems needed for modeling and simulation, outlined around fire modeling. This interface allows for the retrieval of item location and boundaries, enabling the auto generation of models for varying tools.

3D Modelling↗

Accounting for uncertainty in RCCE species selection

A framework is presented to quantify, based on Bayesian evidence, the relative plausibility of species se- lection options in rate-controlled constrained equilibrium (RCCE) reduced chemical models, accounting for uncertainty in the kinetic parameters and experimental data used to refine them. This approach bal- ances the joint goals of matching available data and avoiding overfitting, which is well-understood to limit extrapolative capacity for true prediction. The methodology is applied to homogeneous autoigni- tion, where predictions are known to be particularly sensitive to chemical model details, specially at low temperatures. It is first introduced for hydrogen–air autoignition using an established mechanism, then demonstrated in two applications of methane–air autoignition using the larger GRI-1.2 mechanism. This larger mechanism significantly increases the computational cost of model selection (though not of the subsequent application in predictions), which is alleviated with a time-scale-guided pre-sorting strategy. Uses and extensions of this new formulation are discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Modeling and Analysis of a Heat Pump Clothes Dryer with Thermal Energy Storage

Clothes drying is an energy-intensive process that causes significant electricity consumption and carbon emissions in the US. Approximately 83% of Households in the US own a tumble clothes dryer at home and 80% of dryers are electrical resistance dryers with low energy efficiency. Heat pump technology makes it possible for highly efficient and clean drying. Additionally, the ventless design of heat pump clothes dryers (HPCD) provides more installation flexibility. HPCD involves three primary mediums: wet clothes, a closed air loop, and a refrigerant circuit. The evaporator is used to dehumidify the wet air and the condenser is used to re-heat the dry air. One of the critical technological barriers to HPCD market penetration is its long drying time, primarily due to the relatively low discharging temperature and the slow response during the warm-up period. In this study, the thermal energy storage (TES) technology is adopted to address this challenge by providing pre-heating of air prior to the condenser to increase the operating temperature of the process air. The heat pump will charge the phase change material (PCM) in the TES device with heating energy during clothes washing and the PCM will discharge the stored heat to facilitate air heating during clothes drying. To analyze the optimal design and potential for energy saving and drying time reduction, a mathematical model of the HPCD system was developed. The HPCD is a highly dynamic system with a coupled heat and mass transfer and heat pumping cycle. This paper provides solutions to simulate the transient behavior of the system while maintaining low computational cost. The modeling result indicates reduced energy consumption and drying time by integrating TES with HPCD, as compared to electrical resistance dryers. The study can provide significant insights into improving building flexibility with TES and smart appliances.

Liu, Xiaoli↗

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Economics of electric vehicle corridor fast charging in the United States

Corridor direct-current fast charging (DCFC) stations enable long-distance electric vehicle travel, yet their economics remain uncertain due to high capital costs, low initial utilization, and exposure to utility demand charges. This study evaluates the long-term economics of corridor DCFC across the United States, incorporating capital and operating expenses-including charging equipment and real-world utility tariffs-alongside modeled station utilization, financial incentives, and ancillary retail revenue. In the Baseline scenario, modeled breakeven costs for corridor DCFC average $\$$0.42/kWh over 20 years, yet fewer than half of stations reach cost parity with gasoline on a per-mile basis. Utilization is the primary driver of cost variation, with low-utilization stations costing roughly six times more per kilowatt-hour than the national average. Excluding stations that fail to reach cost parity reduces National Highway System coverage within 50 miles from 94% to 67%, underscoring the trade-off between market-driven deployment and comprehensive network coverage. These results provide guidance for charging providers, utilities, planners, and policymakers seeking to develop and sustain a financially viable national corridor charging network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Budget-Constrained Sizing of Renewable and Energy Storage Systems for Farm-Scale Ammonia Production Within the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

In the transition toward sustainable agriculture, farms have emerged as eco-friendly pioneers, harnessing clean hybrid wind and solar systems to improve farm performance. A concern in this paradigm is the effective sizing of renewable energy systems to ensure optimal energy use within budget considerations. This research focuses on optimizing renewable energy sizing in small-scale ammonia production to meet specific farm demands and enhance local resilience, emphasizing the interplay between environmental and economic factors. These findings promise increased energy efficiency and sustainability in this innovative agricultural sector. Additionally, our approach considers small-scale ammonia plant needs and the dynamic relationships between ammonia, water, and farm demands. Simulations demonstrate substantial cost savings in farm electricity consumption. Specifically, scenarios with renewable energy integration in the farm can reduce at least 13% electricity cost compared to a grid-dependent system in the 15-year simulation.

ammonia↗

Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technoeconomic Analysis

This report presents the results of technoeconomic analysis that advances understanding of the potential of small modular reactors and microreactors, collectively referred to as small reactors (SRs) in this report, in microgrids. This analysis was conducted using a proxy model for SR in microgrids based on the datapoints that were identified and explored in a predecessor report “Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technical Studies Guidance.” The results and the subsequent comparative analysis in this report show that SRs could be a cost-competitive generation option when capital costs are modeled considering potential economies of scale in sizing. If the CO 2 tax is imposed on carbon fuels, SRs would be even more attractive than gas generators. Then, SRs in microgrids would play a pivotal role in reducing the carbon footprint at the local distribution level. However, it is particularly important to identify the most suitable use cases for early adoption and the right balance of generation mix with other clean technologies as SRs achieve a level of technological and financial maturity.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Industry Level Feasibility of LiDAR Data into Fire Modeling Using Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D)

Many evaluation, assessment, and modeling tasks at nuclear power plants require spatial information this often requires physical visits to locations within the facility because the 2D or 3D schematics and current models do not contain enough detail or do not capture as-built and real-world conditions. These visits require extensive manual labor for not only the requesting party, but support groups such as security. LIDAR mapping is trying to solve that problem by providing very detailed 3D models for low costs. However, the use of these models can be very limited because either component reference information is missing and too costly to add, or there is no way to extract specific spatial data needed for other tools. This report presents Idaho National Lab's work with Environmental Intellect (Ei) covering two main efforts. First, to reduce the effort of "tagging" data in large 3D models. By using both existing plant database information, and artificial intelligence (AI) to find and read equipment labels. This research explores the ability of to provide a simple way for the user to tag items and verify plant data, capturing both the speed of AI and human verification. The second part of the work is the development of an interface for importing pieces needed for Modeling & Simulation. Analysis work such as that for fire, flood, or physical security all require spatial or 3D models in various levels of detail. This interface will allow for the retrieval of item location or boundaries, enabling the auto generation of models for varying tools. The application program interface (API) of the fire risk investigation in 3D (FRI3D) was used to test feasibility of exporting the LiDAR tagged spatial information. Outcomes from this work provide preliminary data to determine if the tools and methods could provide substantial industry benefit if fully matured.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

RapidClave Technology Demonstrations-II Kevlar Composite Vehicle Floor

This Demonstration’s objective was to develop enhanced methods to produce a complex preform comprised of Kevlar fabric and thermoplastic adhesive and rapidly consolidate the preform into the desired functional shape of a vehicular floor protection system. The approach and outcome goals were to reduce the tooling cost by 50% and shorten the processing time by 50% using the RapidClave® to consolidate the part rather than an autoclave. UDRI partnered with O’Gara Armoring who currently produces one piece Kevlar floor composite laminates that offer enhanced impact resistance at lighter weights as compared to steel. These laminates are constructed by hand layup of 3000 denier K29 fiber in a plain weave architecture with a thermoplastic film adhesive layer manufactured by Barrday and will be referred to as semi-preg throughout this paper. The current process is labor intensive and costly. Current production rates are only about one per month but an improved process is expected to enable product growth. A 50% reduction in tooling cost was achieved through the use of additive tooling, and the RapidClave® process enabled a 60% reduction in cycle time. Further cost savings were realized through the implementation of a preforming process that resulted in a 65% reduction in labor hours. This new approach for manufacturing reinforced vehicle floors has been partially implemented by O’Gara with plans to continue work on additional vehicle models. The cost savings has potential for increasing O’Gara’s production to reach new markets, and lead to job creation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Financial and economic determinants of collective action: The case of wastewater management

Where public environmental funds support development of wastewater infrastructure, funding institutions ensure the economic use of funds, while the beneficiaries minimize their own costs. In rural areas, there is often a choice between decentralized or centralized (multi-village) systems: if the centralized system is most economic, then only this system is eligible for public funding. However, its implementation requires a voluntary cooperation of the concerned communities, who need to organize themselves to develop and run the infrastructure. The paper analyzes the social determinants of collaboration in a generic case study, using the following variables: method of (economic) assessment, modeled by the social discount rate, funding policy, modeled by the funding rate, and users' self-organization, modeled by cost sharing. In a borderline situation, where the centralized system turns out to be most economic, but this assessment is contingent on the assessment method, collective action may fail: the advantages of collective action from funding are too small to outweigh organizational deficiencies. Considering in this situation sanitation as a human right, authors recommend using innovative forms of organization and, if these fail, reassessing either the amount of funding or the eligibility for funding of more acceptable alternatives. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A generic case study models collective action and funding in wastewater management. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Determinants of success: economic assessment, funding policy and self-organization. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Success indicators: conflict rate, funds needed to make cost shares fair. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Method for analyzing centralized vs. decentralized disputes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer If collective action has less benefits, innovative cost sharing may ensure success.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗