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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Mitigating the noise of DESI mocks using analytic control variates

In order to address fundamental questions related to the expansion history of the Universe and its primordial nature with the next generation of galaxy experiments, we need to model reliably large-scale structure observables such as the correlation function and the power spectrum. Cosmological N-body simulations provide a reference through which we can test our models, but their output suffers from sample variance on large scales. Fortunately, this is the regime where accurate analytic approximations exist. To reduce the variance, which is key to making optimal use of these simulations, we can leverage the accuracy and precision of such analytic descriptions using Control Variates (CV). The power of control variates stems from utilizing inexpensive but highly correlated surrogates of the statistics one wishes to measure. The stronger the correlation between the surrogate and the statistic of interest, the larger the variance reduction delivered by the method. We apply two control variate formulations to mock catalogs generated in anticipation of upcoming data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) to test the robustness of its analysis pipeline. Our CV-reduced measurements offer a factor of 5-10 improvement in the measurement error compared with the raw measurements. We explore the relevant properties of the galaxy samples that dictate this reduction and comment on the improvements we find on some of the derived quantities relevant to Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of Global Horizontal Irradiance in Version 3 of the National Solar Radiation Database

We report an analysis that compares global horizontal irradiance (GHI) estimates from version 3 of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB v3) with surface measurements of GHI at a wide variety of locations over the period spanning from 2005 to 2012. The NSRDB v3 estimate of GHI are derived from the Physical Solar Model (PSM) which employs physics-based models to estimate GHI from measurements of reflected visible and infrared irradiance collected by Geostationary Operational Environment Satellites (GOES) and several other data sources. Because the ground measurements themselves are uncertain our analysis does not establish the absolute accuracy for PSM GHI. However by examining the comparison for trends and for consistency across a large number of sites, we may establish a level of confidence in PSM GHI and identify conditions which indicate opportunities to improve PSM. We focus our evaluation on annual and monthly insolation because these quantities directly relate to prediction of energy production from solar power systems. We find that generally, PSM GHI exhibits a bias towards overestimating insolation, on the order of 5% when all sky conditions are considered, and somewhat less (-3%) when only clear sky conditions are considered. The biases persist across multiple years and are evident at many locations. In our opinion the bias originates with PSM and we view as less credible that the bias stems from calibration drift or soiling of ground instruments. We observe that PSM GHI may significantly underestimate monthly insolation in locations subject to broad snow cover. We found examples of days where PSM GHI apparently misidentified snow cover as clouds, resulting in significant underestimates of GHI during these days and hence leading to substantial understatement of monthly insolation. Analysis of PSM GHI in adjacent pixels shows that the level of agreement between PSM GHI and ground data can vary substantially over distances on the order of 2 km. We conclude that the variance most likely originates from dramatic contrasts in the ground's appearance over these distances.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Method for remotely sensing turbulence of planetary atmospheres

Based on variances of log-amplitude and phase fluctuations of radio occultation data received from orbital and fly-by missions, structure constant for Venusian planetary atmosphere has been estimated with high-confidence factor. Analysis indicates that effects of inhomogeneity, finite size, and superrefractivity of atmospheric turbulence cannot be ignored.

Woo, R. T.↗

An application of the IMC software to controller design for the JPL LSCL Experiment Facility

A software package which Integrates Model reduction and Controller design (The IMC software) is applied to design controllers for the JPL Large Spacecraft Control Laboratory Experiment Facility. Modal Cost Analysis is used for the model reduction, and various Output Covariance Constraints are guaranteed by the controller design. The main motivation is to find the controller with the 'best' performance with respect to output variances. Indeed it is shown that by iterating on the reduced order design model, the controller designed does have better performance than that obtained with the first model reduction.

Zhu, Guoming↗

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Mann, Michael E.↗

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

B. D. Loomis↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

Loomis, B. D.↗

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification with Applications in Wind Turbine Aerodynamics: Preprint

The propagation of input uncertainty through engineering models allows designers to better understand the range of possible outcomes resulting from design decisions. This could lead to greater trust between modelers and stakeholders in the wind energy industry. In this study, we apply multilevel-multifidelity Monte Carlo sampling to flow over an airfoil, assuming uncertainty in the inflow conditions, and characterize the associated computational savings compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches. The truth model is provided by an airfoil simulation with a very fine computational time step, and auxiliary lower-level models are provided by simulations with coarser time steps. Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes and detached eddy simulations are used to obtain two different model fidelities. The primary quantity of interest for this analysis is the lift force, which is examined for a range of angles of attack. We launch an initial set of 'trial' samples to determine the optimal allocation of model evaluations, and these trial evaluations are used to inform a larger sampling effort. Using the multilevel-multifidelity approach, we achieve roughly an order of magnitude variance reduction in expected lift as compared to the standard Monte Carlo approach with an equivalent computational cost.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dependence of Achievable Plan Quality on Treatment Technique and Planning Goal Refinement: A Head-and-Neck Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Application

Purpose: To develop a practical workflow for retrospectively analyzing target and normal tissue dose–volume endpoints for various intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) delivery techniques; to develop technique-specific planning goals to improve plan consistency and quality when feasible. Methods and Materials: A total of 165 consecutive head-and-neck patients from our patient registry were selected and retrospectively analyzed. All IMRT plans were generated using the same dose–volume guidelines for TomoTherapy (Tomo, Accuray), TrueBeam (TB, Varian) using fixed-field IMRT (TB-IMRT) or RAPIDARC (TB-RAPIDARC), or Siemens Oncor (Siemens-IMRT, Siemens). A MATLAB-based dose–volume extraction and analysis tool was developed to export dosimetric endpoints for each patient. With a fair stratification of patient cohort, the variation of achieved dosimetric endpoints was analyzed among different treatment techniques. Upon identification of statistically significant variations, technique-specific planning goals were derived from dynamically accumulated institutional data. Results: Retrospective analysis showed that although all techniques yielded comparable target coverage, the doses to the critical structures differed. The maximum cord doses were 34.1 ± 2.6, 42.7 ± 2.1, 43.3 ± 2.0, and 45.1 ± 1.6 Gy for Tomo, TB-IMRT, TB-RAPIDARC, and Siemens-IMRT plans, respectively. Analyses of variance showed significant differences for the maximum cord doses but no significant differences for other selected structures among the investigated IMRT delivery techniques. Subsequently, a refined technique-specific dose–volume guideline for maximum cord dose was derived at a confidence level of 95%. The dosimetric plans that failed the refined technique-specific planning goals were reoptimized according to the refined constraints. We observed better cord sparing with minimal variations for the target coverage and other organ at risk sparing for the Tomo cases, and higher parotid doses for C-arm linear accelerator–based IMRT and RAPIDARC plans. Conclusion: Patient registry–based processes allowed easy and systematic dosimetric assessment of treatment plan quality and consistency. Our analysis revealed the dependence of certain dosimetric endpoints on the treatment techniques. Technique-specific refinement of planning goals may lead to improvement in plan consistency and plan quality.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis on Inverse Water-Rock Reactions with NETPATH

Methods were developed to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity for NETPATH inverse water-rock reaction models and to calculate dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 groundwater travel times. The NETPATH models calculate upgradient groundwater mixing fractions that produce the downgradient target water chemistry along with amounts of mineral phases that are either precipitated or dissolved. Carbon-14 groundwater travel times are calculated based on the upgradient source-water fractions, carbonate mineral phase changes, and isotopic fractionation. Custom scripts and statistical code were developed for this study to facilitate modifying input parameters, running the NETPATH simulations, extracting relevant output, postprocessing the results, and producing graphs and summaries. The scripts read userspecified values for each constituent’s coefficient of variation, distribution, sensitivity parameter, maximum dissolution or precipitation amounts, and number of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo methods for analysis of parametric uncertainty assign a distribution to each uncertain variable, sample from those distributions, and evaluate the ensemble output. The uncertainty in input affected the variability of outputs, namely source-water mixing, phase dissolution and precipitation amounts, and carbon-14 travel time. Although NETPATH may provide models that satisfy the constraints, it is up to the geochemist to determine whether the results are geochemically reasonable. Two example water-rock reaction models from previous geochemical reports were considered in this study. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the change in output caused by a small change in input, one constituent at a time. Results were standardized to allow for sensitivity comparisons across all inputs, which results in a representative value for each scenario. The approach yielded insight into the uncertainty in water-rock reactions and travel times. For example, there was little variation in source-water fraction between the deterministic and Monte Carlo approaches, and therefore, little variation in travel times between approaches. Sensitivity analysis proved very useful for identifying the most important input constraints (dissolved-ion concentrations), which can reveal the variables that have the most influence on source-water fractions and carbon-14 travel times. Once these variables are determined, more focused effort can be applied to determining the proper distribution for each constraint. Second, Monte Carlo results for water-rock reaction modeling showed discrete and nonunique results. The NETPATH models provide the solutions that satisfy the constraints of upgradient and downgradient water chemistry. There can exist multiple, discrete solutions for any scenario and these discrete solutions cause grouping of results. As a result, the variability in output may not easily be represented by a single distribution or a mean and variance and care should be taken in the interpretation and reporting of results.

phase dissolution and precipitation amounts↗

Testing and validation of multi‐lidar scanning strategies for wind energy applications

Abstract Several factors cause lidars to measure different values of turbulence than an anemometer on a tower, including volume averaging, instrument noise and the use of a scanning circle to estimate the wind field. One way to avoid the use of a scanning circle is to deploy multiple scanning lidars and point them toward the same volume in space to collect velocity measurements and extract high‐resolution turbulence information. This paper explores the use of two multi‐lidar scanning strategies, the tri‐Doppler technique and the virtual tower technique, for measuring 3‐D turbulence. In summer 2013, a vertically profiling Leosphere WindCube lidar and three Halo Photonics Streamline lidars were operated at the Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site to test these multi‐lidar scanning strategies. During the first half of the field campaign, all three scanning lidars were pointed at approximately the same point in space and a tri‐Doppler analysis was completed to calculate the three‐dimensional wind vector every second. Next, all three scanning lidars were used to build a ‘virtual tower’ above the WindCube lidar. Results indicate that the tri‐Doppler technique measures higher values of horizontal turbulence than the WindCube lidar under stable atmospheric conditions, reduces variance contamination under unstable conditions and can measure high‐resolution profiles of mean wind speed and direction. The virtual tower technique provides adequate turbulence information under stable conditions but cannot capture the full temporal variability of turbulence experienced under unstable conditions because of the time needed to readjust the scans. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Newman, Jennifer F.↗

Variance-based sensitivity indices for stochastic models with correlated inputs

The goal of this article is the formulation of the principles of one of the possible strategies in implementing correlation between input random variables so as to be usable for algorithm development and the evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity analysis. With regard to the types of stochastic computational models, which are commonly found in structural mechanics, an algorithm was designed for effective use in conjunction with Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity indices are evaluated for all possible permutations of the decorrelation procedures for input parameters. The evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity coefficients is illustrated on an example in which a computational model was used for the analysis of the resistance of a steel bar in tension with statistically dependent input geometric characteristics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Analysis of Small-Scale Atmospheric Gravity Waves Using UARS MLS Radiance Measurements

Gravity waves play an important role in determining atmospheric circulation and small-scale mixing. Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) 63-GHz radiances can be used to calculate small-scale wave variances at 30-80 km altitudes. The major results from this new data set are summarized in the following: (1) MLS radiance fluctuations are contributed mostly by gravity waves of small (about 100 km) horizontal and large (>10 km) vertical scales. (2) MLS observations show that variance enhancements are strongly correlated with the stratospheric polar vortices, tropospheric deep convection zones, and surface topography. (3) As expected for gravity wave propagation, the normalized wave variances grow exponentially with height in the stratosphere but saturate in the mesosphere. (4) The long-term variations of the wave variance are dominated by an annual cycle in the stratosphere and a semiannual cycle in the mesosphere. (5) Separate analyses of the ascending and descending measurements show that the variances are sensitive to wave propagation directions. The subtropical variances, which are associated with deep convection, are likely caused by the gravity waves that propagate upward and eastward in the westward background wind. Additional information contained in the original.

Wu, Dong L.↗

Bias Impact Analysis and Calibration of UAV-Based Mobile LiDAR System with Spinning Multi-Beam Laser Scanner

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is a technology that uses laser beams to measure ranges and generates precise 3D information about the scanned area. It is rapidly gaining popularity due to its contribution to a variety of applications such as Digital Building Model (DBM) generation, telecommunications, infrastructure monitoring, transportation corridor asset management and crash/accident scene reconstruction. To derive point clouds with high positional accuracy, estimation of mounting parameters relating the laser scanners to the onboard Global Navigation Satellite System/Inertial Navigation System (GNSS/INS) unit, i.e., the lever-arm and boresight angles, is the foremost and necessary step. This paper proposes a LiDAR system calibration strategy for a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-based mobile mapping system that can directly estimate the mounting parameters for spinning multi-beam laser scanners through an outdoor calibration procedure. This approach is based on the use of conjugate planar/linear features in overlapping point clouds derived from different flight lines. Designing an optimal configuration for calibration is the first and foremost step in order to ensure the most accurate estimates of mounting parameters. This is achieved by conducting a rigorous theoretical analysis of the potential impact of bias in mounting parameters of a LiDAR unit on the resultant point cloud. The dependency of the impact on the orientation of target primitives and relative flight line configuration would help in deducing the configuration that would maximize as well as decouple the impact of bias in each mounting parameter so as to ensure their accurate estimation. Finally, the proposed analysis and calibration strategy are validated by calibrating a UAV-based LiDAR system using two different datasets—one acquired with flight lines at a single flying height and the other with flight lines at two different flying heights. With this being said, the calibration performance is evaluated by analyzing correlation between the estimated system parameters, the a-posteriori variance factor of the Least Squares Adjustment (LSA) procedure and the quality of fit of the adjusted point cloud to planar/linear features before and after the calibration process.

3D point clouds↗

Statistical Modeling and Analysis of k -Layer Coverage of Two-Dimensional Materials in Inkjet Printing Processes

Two-dimensional layered materials/flakes, also known as crystalline atom-thick layer nanosheets, have recently been receiving great attention in electronics fabrication due to their unique and intriguing properties. The k-layer coverage area (i.e., the area covered by k number of overlapping layers) of the printed flake pattern significantly impacts on the properties of the printed electronics. In this work, we constructed a statistical model to describe the k-layer coverage of randomly distributed two-dimensional materials. A series of results are obtained to provide not only the expectation but also the variance of the coverage area. The boundary effects on the random flakes coverage are also studied. In addition, an approximated statistical testing approach is also developed in this work to detect abnormal coverage patterns. Furthermore, the case studies based on simulated data and real flakes images obtained from the inkjet printing process demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model and analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

In this paper, we present a methodology to predict the shape of solute breakthrough curves in heterogeneous aquifers at early times and/or under high degrees of heterogeneity, both cases in which the classical macrodispersion theory may not be applicable. The methodology relies on the observation that breakthrough curves in heterogeneous media are generally well described by lognormal distributions, and mean breakthrough times can be predicted analytically. The log-variance of solute arrival is thus sufficient to completely specify the breakthrough curves, and this is calibrated as a function of aquifer heterogeneity and dimensionless distance from a source plane by means of Monte Carlo analysis and statistical regression. Using the ensemble of simulated groundwater flow and solute transport realizations employed to calibrate the predictive regression, reliability estimates for the prediction are also developed. Additional theoretical contributions include heuristics for the time until an effective macrodispersion coefficient becomes applicable, and also an expression for its magnitude that applies in highly heterogeneous systems. Finally, it is seen that the results here represent a way to derive continuous time random walk transition distributions from physical considerations rather than from empirical field calibration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Compositional effects on cure kinetics, mechanical properties and printability of dual-cure epoxy/acrylate resins for DIW additive manufacturing

Interest in 3D printing of thermoset resins has increased significantly in recent years. One approach to additive manufacturing of thermoset resins is printing dual-cure resins with direct ink write (DIW). Dual-cure resins are multi-component resins which employ an in situ curable constituent to enable net-shape fabrication while a second constituent and cure mechanism contribute to the final mechanical properties of the printed materials. In this work, the cure kinetics, green strength, printability, and print fidelity of dual-cure epoxy/acrylate thermoset resins are investigated. Resin properties are evaluated as a function of acrylate concentration and in situ UV exposure conditions. The acrylate cure kinetics are probed using photo-differential scanning calorimetry and the impacts of resin composition and UV cure profile on the acrylate extent of conversion are presented. Continuous and pulsed UV cure profiles are shown to affect total conversion due to variances in radical efficiency at different UV intensities and acrylate concentrations. The effects of acrylate concentration on the kinetics of the epoxy thermal cure and the final mechanical properties are also investigated using dynamic mechanical analysis and three-point bend measurements. The glass transition temperature is dependent on formulation, with increasing acrylate content decreasing the T g . However, the room temperature shear moduli, flexural moduli, strength, strain-to-failure, and toughness values are relatively independent of resin composition. The similarity of the final properties allows for greater flexibility in resin formulation and in situ cure parameters, which can enable the printing of complex parts that require high green strength. We found that the in situ UV print intensities and exposure profiles that are necessary to achieve the best print quality are not, in most cases, the conditions that maximize conversion of the acrylate network. Lastly, this highlights the importance of developing optimized resin compositions which enable complete cure of the acrylate network by promoting acrylate dark cure or thermal cure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗