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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability

Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.

Coburn, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2025

Widening of Wind Stress Anomalies Amplifies ENSO in a Warming Climate

Abstract Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the twenty-first century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread. Most commonly, changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific are invoked to explain these changes of ENSO. Here, we show that changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies associated with ENSO are potentially as important as these background state changes. Specifically, changes in the magnitude, meridional width, and zonal structure of wind stress anomalies can explain approximately 53% of the intermodel variance in the projected change of ENSO magnitude through the twenty-first century as well as 43% in ENSO periodicity changes. Among these changes in the wind structure, the meridional widening of wind anomalies plays the most important role. To demonstrate that these changes are indeed critical, we develop a hybrid model of ENSO based on the Community Earth System Model, version 2, which incorporates a dynamical ocean coupled to a simplified statistical atmosphere within the tropical Pacific. In the absence of external forcing and corresponding mean-state changes, the imposed changes in wind stress anomalies in this hybrid model result in an increase of ENSO amplitudes of nearly 10% along the equator. Our results are also theoretically supported by a recharge-oscillator model that incorporates the meridional wind structure. Thus, changes in the structure of wind stress anomalies, together with changes in the mean state, likely play a critical role in the projected strengthening of ENSO.

Stuivenvolt-Allen, Jacob [Yale University, New Hav↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) and Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS) Instrument Handbook

The radar wind profiler (RWP) is an active remote-sensing instrument that can routinely, and virtually unattended, observe wind and turbulence in the troposphere through scattering from clear-air irregularities of the atmospheric refractive index (Gage and Balsley 1978). The principle of Doppler radars in general is based on sending electromagnetic pulses in the vertical and several tilted directions (vertical and oblique beams) and measuring the signal that is scattered back by atmospheric turbulence at all heights and received at the antenna. The RWPs provides measurements of backscattered signal strength and wind profiles nominally between 0.1 km and 6 km. The RWP operation assumes that the wind field is homogeneous over the spatial separation of the antenna beams, which is a safe assumption under stable atmospheric conditions. However, the wind may be different between the beams due to significant changes in the wind field, resulting in erroneous wind calculations. Therefore, the radial measurements are averaged over a sufficient time period to validate the assumption of homogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Terrain-Influenced Winds and Fire-Fire Interactions in Wildland Fire Simulations [Dissertation]

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards Universal Non-Dimensional Characterization of the Oscillatory Dynamics of Wind Turbine Rotors of Multiple Sizes

One concern in the field of Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWTs) is what control strategies are needed to handle gust pulses in the wind to prevent extreme oscillations of the blades to reduce fatigue stress, prevent blade rupture, and extend the turbine’s operational life. In order to design innovative control strategies to modify the blade’s oscillatory response, it is crucial to establish the fundamental vibrational behavior of the blades when excited by gust pulses of different frequencies and amplitudes present in the fluctuating wind inflow. In a series of previous works, the authors presented a novel Reduced-Order Characterization (ROC) technique that provided an energy-based characterization of the fundamental modes of oscillation of wind turbine rotors when excited by combinations of wind gust pulses of different frequencies and amplitudes. The main focus of the present work is to extend these original notions of energy-based ROC to a universal technique expressed in terms of non-dimensional quantities that could be applied to turbines of any size, operating in any set of wind conditions, as long as they share geometrical and material similarity. The ROC technique provides a simple formula that is capable of predicting the dominant vibrational modes of a blade with sufficient precision to be useful in the determination of a control decision that can be computed in real time, an aspect of fundamental importance in dealing with rapid fluctuations in wind conditions.

Yates, North (ORCID:000900052204261X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of föhn winds in eastern Antarctic Peninsula rapid ice shelf collapse

Ice shelf collapse reduces buttressing and enables grounded glaciers to contribute more rapidly to sea-level rise in a warming climate. The abrupt collapses of the Larsen A (1995) and B (2002) ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) occurred, at least for Larsen B, when long-period ocean swells damaged the calving front and the ice shelf was inundated with melt lakes that led to large-scale hydrofracture cascades. During collapse, field and satellite observations indicate föhn winds were present on both ice shelves. Here we use a regional climate model and machine learning analyses to evaluate the contributory roles of föhn winds and associated melt events prior to and during the collapses for ice shelves on the AP. Föhn winds caused about 25 % ± 3 % of the total annual melt in just 9 d on Larsen A prior to and during collapse and were present during the Larsen B collapse, which helped form extensive melt lakes. At the same time, the off-coast wind direction created by föhn winds helped melt and physically push sea ice away from the ice shelf calving fronts that allowed long-period ocean swells to reach and damage the front, which has been theorized to have ultimately triggered collapse. Collapsed ice shelves experienced enhanced surface melt driven by föhn winds over a large spatial extent and near the calving front, whereas SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves are affected less by föhn-wind-induced melt and do not experience large-scale melt ponds. These results suggest SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves may be less likely to experience rapid collapse due to föhn-driven melt so long as surface temperatures and föhn occurrence remain within historical bounds.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind redistribution of snow impacts the Ka- and Ku-band radar signatures of Arctic sea ice

Wind-driven redistribution of snow on sea ice alters its topography and microstructure, yet the impact of these processes on radar signatures is poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of snow redistribution over Arctic sea ice on radar waveforms and backscatter signatures obtained from a surface-based, fully polarimetric Ka- and Ku-band radar at incidence angles between 0° (nadir) and 50°. Two wind events in November 2019 during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition are evaluated. During both events, changes in Ka- and Ku-band radar waveforms and backscatter coefficients at nadir are observed, coincident with surface topography changes measured by a terrestrial laser scanner. At both frequencies, redistribution caused snow densification at the surface and the uppermost layers, increasing the scattering at the air–snow interface at nadir and its prevalence as the dominant radar scattering surface. The waveform data also detected the presence of previous air–snow interfaces, buried beneath newly deposited snow. The additional scattering from previous air–snow interfaces could therefore affect the range retrieved from Ka- and Ku-band satellite altimeters. With increasing incidence angles, the relative scattering contribution of the air–snow interface decreases, and the snow–sea ice interface scattering increases. Relative to pre-wind event conditions, azimuthally averaged backscatter at nadir during the wind events increases by up to 8 dB (Ka-band) and 5 dB (Ku-band). Results show substantial backscatter variability within the scan area at all incidence angles and polarizations, in response to increasing wind speed and changes in wind direction. Our results show that snow redistribution and wind compaction need to be accounted for to interpret airborne and satellite radar measurements of snow-covered sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heliostat Consortium: Gap Analysis on Wind Load for Achieving a Fully Competitive Heliostat Industry

The Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) Wind Load Subtask was initiated with the aim of bringing research work pertaining to wind load measurement, characterization, and prediction taking place across several tasks, including Advanced Manufacturing, Components and Controls, and Field Deployment. The cross-cutting wind load subtopic in the HelioCon roadmap report [1] highlighted standardized methods and tools that are needed for a more detailed understanding of the static and dynamic loads on a heliostat. This will enable cost reduction of wind-dependent heliostat components to avoid unnecessarily conservative, overly constrained designs and increase field efficiency/reliability, to reduce the risk of component failures due to high-wind events (>15 m/s). Gaps related to heliostat wind load include site characterization for wind measurements, critical load cases for heliostat design, turbulence impacts on heliostat tracking error, testing of heliostat array configurations, understanding spatial variation of maximum loads across the solar field, and heliostat field layout and operating strategies. The recommended highest-priority pathway as first steps taken by HelioCon to address these gaps are to develop site characterization guidelines for heliostat design and field load measurements.

Emes, Matthew (ORCID:0000000341474387)↗
NASA NTRS1972

Ultimate wind sensing capabilities of the jimsphere and other rising balloon systems

The error in the magnitude of the horizontal wind field as computed for balloons with linear and quadratic rise rates ascending through a light, moderate, or severe wind field is derived. The rise rate function of the Jimsphere is analyzed as a special case. Figures are presented of wind error versus altitude for each rise rate and wind field, assuming linear smoothing. The ultimate capability of rising balloon systems for measuring wind from the surface to 18 kilometers can be determined from the data and the wind accuracy can be computed by knowing only the rise rate behavior versus altitude. The radii of smooth and roughened spheres needed to achieve the desired rise rate at various altitudes are derived. The radii for smooth and roughened balloons for tow-meter-per-second to 20-meter-per-second rise rates at 10 and 14 km altitudes, and the wind-following capability for each are tabulated.

Luers, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Computation of the wind by forced adjustment to the height field.

Experimental study of the problem of the forced adjustment of the wind field to the height field with the Mintz-Arakawa two-level atmospheric general circulation model. In all but one of the experiments, the height field was assumed to be perfectly observed at 6-hr intervals, over a time period of one day or less, and from these height data the vector wind field was computed by forced dynamical adjustment. In one experiment, the temperature alone was prescribed. The winds computed in these experiments were compared with the 'control' winds of the general circulation simulation. The best agreement between the computed and the control winds was obtained when the time-differencing scheme in the governing finite-difference equations of motion had a large rate of damping of high-frequency motions. This damping rate also determined the optimum fraction and frequency of restoration of the height (or temperature) fields. With strong damping, total restoration at every time step gave the most rapid rate of wind error reduction and the smallest asymptotic limit of the wind error.

Mesinger, F.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Wind shear near the ground and aircraft operations.

The variance of wind shear in the first 150-200 m of the atmosphere is a function of the direction of the mean wind relative to the flight path, the zenith angle of the flight path, the standard deviation of the three components of the turbulence velocity vector, the surface friction velocity, the stability properties of the atmospheric boundary layer, and the heights above natural grade of the beginning and end points of the portion of the flight path over which the shear is to be calculated. The results are applied by calculating wind shear for various risks of occurrence assuming wind shear is a Gaussian process, and it is shown that turbulence produces significantly large dispersions in wind shear about the mean wind shear. The results are interpreted in terms of the ICAO interim shear criteria for reporting wind shear in qualitative terms.

Fichtl, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Proposed geomagnetic control of semiannual waves in the mesospheric zonal wind

The polar semiannual oscillation in zonal wind can explain midwinter weakening of the polar vortex and the relatively short stratospheric and mesospheric summar easterlies. The phase of the wind oscillation is equinoctial, as is the phase of the semiannual component in magnetic storm activity. For a given altitude, the contours of amplitude of the semiannual wind oscillation have less variability in geomagnetic than in geographic coordinates. It is suggested that polar wind oscillations are caused by the semiannual maxima in magnetic storm activity which lead to electron dissociation of O2 into O, in turn increasing ozone more rapidly than the dissociation of N2 destroys ozone, and thereby inducing a semiannual variation in the thermal and wind fields. This implies that geomagnetic processes may cause or affect the development of sudden warmings. As the tropical semiannual wind oscillation is symmetric about the geomagnetic equator, the same processes may also influence the location of the tropical wind wave.

Belmont, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The limitations of wind measurement accuracy for balloon systems

The error in horizontal wind field measurements as computed from the trajectory of balloons with linear and quadratic rise rates (as functions of altitude) has been derived. Balloon trajectories through light, moderate, and severe wind fields have been considered. Figures are presented which show the wind error vs altitude for various rise rates in each wind field, assuming linear smoothing of the trajectory data. The rise rate profile of the Jimsphere is analyzed as a special case. The results and figures presented are useful in determining the ultimate capability of rising balloon systems in general and for the Jimsphere system in particular for measuring wind from the surface to 18 km. Using the figures presented, it is possible to estimate the wind accuracy that can be achieved by any type of rising balloon by knowing only its rise rate behavior vs altitude. In addition, the results can be used in balloon design to determine what rise rate function is needed to achieve specified wind accuracies. A table is presented which shows the balloon radius for smooth and roughened spheres needed to achieve 2 to 20 m/sec rise rates at 10 and 14 km altitudes.

Luers, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A brief summary of the attempts to develop large wind-electric generating systems in the U.S.

Interest in developing large wind-electric generating systems in the United States was stimulated primarily by one man, Palmer C. Putnam. He was responsible for the construction of the largest wind-power system ever built - the 1250 kilowatt Smith-Putnam wind-electric plant. The existence of this system prompted the U.S. Federal Power Commission to investigate the potential of using the winds as a source energy. Also, in 1933 prior to Putnam's effort, there was an abortive attempt by J. D. Madaras to develop a wind system based on the Magnus effect. These three projects comprise the only serious efforts in America to develop large wind driven plants. In this paper, the history of each project is briefly described. Also discussed are some of the reasons why wind energy was not seriously considered as a major source of energy for the U.S.

Savino, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The Third Solar Wind Conference: A summary

The Third Solar Wind Conference consisted of nine sessions. The following subjects were discussed: (1) solar abundances; (2) the history and evolution of the solar wind; (3) the structure and dynamics of the solar corona; (4) macroscopic and microscopic properties of the solar wind; (5) cosmic rays as a probe of the solar wind; (6) the structure and dynamics of the solar wind; (7) spatial gradients; (8) stellar winds; and (9) interactions with objects in the solar wind. The invited and contributed talks presented at the conference are summarized.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Venus wind and temperature structure - The Venera 8 data

Our analysis of the Venera 8 measurements yields equatorial morning terminator horizontal and vertical winds that are similar in a number of respects to the winds we obtained from our analysis of the Venera 7 measurements. The lower boundary of the horizontal retrograde '4-day' wind is defined by a 50-60% decrease in wind speed in the vicinity of 44 km, and there exists a retrograde wind 'plateau' of 15- to 40-m/s winds extending from 40 km down to the vicinity of 18 km, where the winds decrease rapidly to the order of 0.1 m/s near the surface. Updrafts of 2-5 m/s exist in the vicinity of 20-30 km and are apparently associated with a slightly superadiabatic lapse rate.

Ainsworth, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The solar wind as deduced from lunar samples

Lunar surface samples, which have been exposed to the solar wind, can be used to obtain information on the recent and past solar wind. Some of the more important conclusions reached are: The D/H ratio in the solar wind is smaller than 0.000003. The isotopic composition of C, Ar (except Ar-40), and Kr in the solar wind and on the earth are the same within approximately plus or minus 3%. Terrestrial Ne is enriched in the heavier isotopes relative to solar wind Ne. The average solar wind flux in the past was probably higher than at present. The average solar wind energy has varied in the past; however, no long time trend is apparent. Evidence for a secular decrease of the He-4/He-3 ratio with time exists.

Eberhardt, P.↗