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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

The program on radiative inputs of the sun to the Earth (rise)

General concerns about changes in the Earth's climate and in the ozone layer have increased the importance of measuring and understanding variations in the sun's radiative outputs. These outputs appear, for instance, at the top of the list of global change forcing agents in the recent FY-90 document on the U.S. Global Change Program. Significant advances have been made over the past decade in radiometry of the total solar irradiance. Photometry of light variations in stars similar to the sun, but much younger, is providing new insights into the sun's variations in luminosity and UV radiation at previous epochs of interest to paleoclimate studies. Measurement of the sun's 11-year output variability in the ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet still possess a challenge of great importance. All of these topics are addressed by the program on Radiative Inputs of the Sun to Earth (RISE). RISE is a 5-year program of observations, data analysis, and theory, that has been defined at two workshops held in Boulder, Colorado in November 1987, and in Tucson, Arizona in October 1989. These meetings involved about 60 solar and atmospheric physicists, and stellar astronomers. A proceedings of the 1987 workshop was issued in early 1988. A substantial component of the program, consisting of ground-based observations, data analysis, and theory, is directed at the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the program is seeking a FY-92 funding start at the NSF. RISE also makes recommendations on measurements required from NASA and NOAA satellites.

Foukal, Peter V.↗

The effects of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gases on twentieth century Sahel precipitation

Abstract There is little scientific consensus on the importance of external climate forcings—including anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases (GHG)—relative to each other and to internal variability in dictating past and future Sahel rainfall. We address this query by relating a 3-tiered multi-model mean (MMM) over the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 “twentieth century” and pre-Industrial control simulations to observations. The comparison of single-forcing and historical simulations highlights the importance of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over GHG in generating forced Sahel rainfall variability in models. However, the forced MMM only accounts for a small fraction of observed variance. A residual consistency test shows that simulated internal variability cannot explain the residual observed multidecadal variability, and points to model deficiency in simulating multidecadal variability in the forced response, internal variability, or both.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Sensor Requirements for Monitoring Essential Biodiversity Variables of Coastal Ecosystems

The biodiversity and high productivity of coastal terrestrial and aquatic habitats are the foundation for important benefits to human societies around the world. These globally distributed habitats need frequent and broad systematic assessments, but field surveys only cover a small fraction of these areas. Satellite-based sensors can repeatedly record the visible and near-infrared reflectance spectra that contain the absorption, scattering, and fluorescence signatures of functional phytoplankton groups, colored dissolved matter, and particulate matter near the surface ocean, and of biologically structured habitats (floating and emergent vegetation, benthic habitats like coral, seagrass, and algae). These measures can be incorporated into Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), including the distribution, abundance, and traits of groups of species populations, and used to evaluate habitat fragmentation. However, current and planned satellites are not designed to observe the EBVs that change rapidly with extreme tides, salinity, temperatures, storms, pollution, or physical habitat destruction over scales relevant to human activity. Making these observations requires a new generation of satellite sensors able to sample with these combined characteristics: (1) spatial resolution on the order of 30 to 100-m pixels or smaller; (2) spectral resolution on the order of 5 nm in the visible and 10 nm in the short-wave infrared spectrum (or at least two or more bands at 1,030, 1,240, 1,630, 2,125, and/or 2,260 nm) for atmospheric correction and aquatic and vegetation assessments; (3) radiometric quality with signal to noise ratios (SNR) above 800 (relative to signal levels typical of the open ocean), 14-bit digitization, absolute radiometric calibration less than 2%, relative calibration of 0.2%, polarization sensitivity less than 1%, high radiometric stability and linearity, and operations designed to minimize sunglint; and (4) temporal resolution of hours to days. We refer to these combined specifications as H4 imaging. Enabling H4 imaging is vital for the conservation and management of global biodiversity and ecosystem services, including food provisioning and water security. An agile satellite in a 3-d repeat low-Earth orbit could sample 30-km swath images of several hundred coastal habitats daily. Nine H4 satellites would provide weekly coverage of global coastal zones. Such satellite constellations are now feasible and are used in various applications.

aquatic↗

An ecologically-constrained deep learning model for tropical leaf phenology monitoring using PlanetScope satellites

In tropical forests, leaf phenology signals leaf-on/off status and exhibits considerable variability across scales from a single tree-crown to the entire forest ecosystem. Such phenology signals importantly regulate large-scale biogeochemical cycles and regional climate. PlanetScope CubeSats data with a 3-m resolution and near-daily global coverage provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor both fine- and ecosystem-scale phenology variability along large environmental gradients. However, a scalable method that accurately characterizes leaf phenology from PlanetScope with biophysically meaningful metrics remains lacking. Here we developed an index-guided, ecologically constrained autoencoder (IG-ECAE) method to automatically derive a deciduousness metric (i.e. percentage of tree canopies with leaf-off status within an image pixel) from PlanetScope. The IG-ECAE first estimated the reflectance spectra of leafy/leafless canopies based on their spectral indices characteristics, then used the derived reflectance spectra to guide an autoencoder deep learning method with additional ecological constraints to refine the reflectance spectra, and finally used linear spectral unmixing to estimate the relative abundance of leafless canopies (or deciduousness) per PlanetScope image pixel. We tested the IG-ECAE method at 16 tropical forest sites spanning multiple continents and a large precipitation gradient (1470-2819 mm year -1 ). Among these sites, we evaluated the PlanetScope-derived deciduousness with corresponding measures derived from WorldView-2 (n=9 sites) and local phenocams (n=9 sites). Our results show that PlanetScope-derived deciduousness agrees: 1) with that derived from WorldView-2 at the patch level (90m×90m) with r 2 =0.89 across all sites; and 2) with that derived from phenocams to quantify ecosystem-scale seasonality with r 2 ranging from 0.62-0.96. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of IG-ECAE in characterizing the wide variability in deciduousness across scales from pixels to forest ecosystems, and from a single date to the full annual cycle, indicating the potential for using high-resolution satellites to track the large-scale phenological patterns and response of tropical forests to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing of a Loop Heat Pipe Subjective to Variable Accelerations: Temperature Stability - Part 2

The effect of accelerating forces on the performance of loop heat pipes (LHP) is of interest and importance to terrestrial and space applications. LHP's are being considered for cooling of military combat vehicles and for spinning spacecraft. In order to investigate the effect of an accelerating force on LHP operation, a miniature LHP was installed on a spin table. Variable accelerating forces were imposed on the LHP by spinning the table at different angular speeds. Several patterns of accelerating forces were applied, i.e. continuous spin at different speeds and periodic spin at different speeds and frequencies. The resulting accelerations ranged from 1.17 g's to 4.7 g's. This paper presents the second part of the experimental study, i.e. the effect of an accelerating force on the LHP operating temperature. It has been known that in stationary tests the LHP operating temperature is a function of the evaporator power and the condenser sink temperature when the compensation temperature is not actively controlled. Results of this test program indicate that any change in the accelerating force will result in a chance in the LHP operating temperature through its influence on the fluid distribution in the evaporator, condenser and compensation chamber. However, the effect is not universal, rather it is a function of other test conditions. A steady, constant acceleration may result in an increase or decrease of the operating temperature, while a periodic spin will lead to a quasi-steady operating temperature over a sufficient time interval. In addition, an accelerating force may lead to temperature hysteresis and changes in the temperature oscillation. In spite of all these effects, the LHP continued to operate without any problems in all tests.

Ku, Jentung↗

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data: Part III. Using Combined PCA to Compare Spatiotemporal Variability of MODIS, MISR and OMI Aerosol Optical Depth

Satellite measurements of global aerosol properties are very useful in constraining aerosol parameterization in climate models. The reliability of different data sets in representing global and regional aerosol variability becomes an essential question. In this study, we present the results of a comparison using combined principal component analysis (CPCA), applied to monthly mean, mapped (Level 3) aerosol optical depth (AOD) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). This technique effectively finds the common space-time variability in the multiple data sets by decomposing the combined AOD field. The results suggest that all of the sensors capture the globally important aerosol regimes, including dust, biomass burning, pollution, and mixed aerosol types. Nonetheless, differences are also noted. Specifically, compared with MISR and OMI, MODIS variability is significantly higher over South America, India, and the Sahel. MODIS deep blue AOD has a lower seasonal variability in North Africa, accompanied by a decreasing trend that is not found in either MISR or OMI AOD data. The narrow swath of MISR results in an underestimation of dust variability over the Taklamakan Desert. The MISR AOD data also exhibit overall lower variability in South America and the Sahel. OMI does not capture the Russian wild fire in 2010 nor the phase shift in biomass burning over East South America compared to Central South America, likely due to cloud contamination and the OMI row anomaly. OMI also indicates a much stronger (boreal) winter peak in South Africa compared with MODIS and MISR.

satellite observation↗

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Acetone in the atmosphere: Distribution, sources, and sinks

Acetone (CH3COCH3) was found to be the dominant nonmethane organic species present in the atmosphere sampled primarily over eastern Canada (0-6 km, 35 deg-65 deg N) during ABLE3B (July to August 1990). A concentration range of 357 to 2310 ppt (= 10(exp -12) v/v) with a mean value of 1140 +/- 413 ppt was measured. Under extremely clean conditions, generally involving Arctic flows, lowest (background) mixing ratios of 550 +/- 100 ppt were present in much of the troposphere studied. Correlations between atmospheric mixing ratios of acetone and select species such as C2H2, CO, C3H8, C2Cl4 and isoprene provided important clues to its possible sources and to the causes of its atmospheric variability. Biomass burning as a source of acetone has been identified for the first time. By using atmospheric data and three-dimensional photochemical models, a global acetone source of 40-60 Tg (= 10(exp 12) g)/yr is estimated to be present. Secondary formation from the atmospheric oxidation of precursor hydrocarbons (principally propane, isobutane, and isobutene) provides the single largest source (51%). The remainder is attributable to biomass burning (26%), direct biogenic emissions (21%), and primary anthropogenic emissions (3%). Atmospheric removal of acetone is estimated to be due to photolysis (64%), reaction with OH radicals (24%), and deposition (12%). Model calculations also suggest that acetone photolysis contributed significantly to PAN formation (100-200 ppt) in the middle and upper troposphere of the sampled region and may be important globally. While the source-sink equation appears to be roughly balanced, much more atmospheric and source data, especially from the southern hemisphere, are needed to reliably quantify the atmospheric budget of acetone.

Singh, H. B.↗

ML Pipeline (Machine Learning Pipeline) [SWR-22-35]

The Machine Learning Pipeline (ML Pipeline) allows the user to fit a model to predict a dependent variable, y, based on a feature set, X. ML Pipeline gives the ability to automatically generate features with its Feature Engineering function, automatically select the most important features with its Feature Selection function, fit the model with its Fit function, and evaluate the model with its Evaluate function. ML Pipeline's functionality can not only help the user predict values for the desired variable it also gives the user a better understanding of which features are important and how effective the model is. ML Pipeline accomplishes all this, while remaining simple to use and interpret.

Schiek, Andrew↗

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D↗

Performance of 12Ah aerospace nickel-cadmium cells of design variable groups

The design variable program of NASA is a systematic approach to evaluate the performance of 12Ah aerospace nickel-cadmium cells of 9 important cell designs. These cells were life cycled in a Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) regime for 3 to 4 years. Representative cells taken from the design variable groups after different cycling periods have been examined. The results show that: (1) positive swelling and carbonate content in the electrolyte increases as a function of the number of cycles, (2) electrolyte distribution follows the order NEG greater than POS greater than SEP, 3) control and no PQ groups outperformed the rest of the groups and (4) the polypropylene group shows very heavy cadmium migration and poor performance.

Vasanth, K. L.↗

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Term Stochasticity Combines With Short-Term Variability in Assembly Processes to Underlie Rice Paddy Sustainability

Revealing temporal patterns of community assembly processes is important for understanding how microorganisms underlie the sustainability of agroecosystem. The ancient terraced rice paddies at Longji provide an ideal platform to study temporal dynamics of agroecosystem sustainability due to their chronosequential records of soil physicochemistry and well-archived microbial information along 630-year rice cultivation. We used statistical null models to evaluate microbial assembly processes along the soil chronosequences of Longji rice paddies through time. Stochastic and deterministic assembly processes jointly governed microbial community composition within successional eras (less than 250 years), and within-era determinism was mainly driven by soil fertility and redox conditions alone or in combination. Conversely, across successional eras (i.e., over 300 years), stochasticity linearly increased with increasing duration between eras and was eventually predominant for the whole 630 years. We suggest that the impact of stochasticity vs. determinism on assembly is timescale-dependent, and we propose that the importance of stochastic assembly of microbial community at longer timescales is due to the gradual changes in soil properties under long-term rice cultivation, which in turn contribute to the sustainability of paddy ecosystem by maintaining a diverse community of microorganisms with multi-functional traits. In total, our results indicate that knowledge on the timescales at which assembly processes govern microbial community composition is key to understanding the ecological mechanisms generating agroecosystem sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global Relationships Among Traditional Reflectance Vegetation Indices (NDVI and NDII), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Soil Moisture Variability on Weekly Time Scales

Monitoring the effects of water availability on vegetation globally using satellites is important for applications such as drought early warning, precision agriculture, and food security as well as for more broadly understanding relationships between water and carbon cycles. In this global study, we examine how quickly several satellite-based indicators, assumed to have relationships with water availability, respond, on timescales of days to weeks, in comparison with variations in root-zone soil moisture (RZM) that extends to about 1 m depth. The satellite indicators considered are the normalized difference vegetation and infrared indices (NDVI and NDII, respectively) derived from reflectances obtained with moderately wide (20–40 nm) spectral bands in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) and evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from thermal infrared observations and normalized by a reference ET. NDVI is primarily sensitive to chlorophyll contributions and vegetation structure while NDII may contain additional information on water content in leaves and canopy. ET includes both the loss of root zone soil water through transpiration (modulated by stomatal conductance) as well as evaporation from bare soil. We find that variations of these satellite-based drought indicators on time scales of days to weeks have significant correlations with those of RZM in the same water-limited geographical locations that are dominated by grasslands, shrublands, and savannas whose root systems are generally contained within the 1 m RZM layer. Normalized ET interannual variations show generally a faster response to water deficits and enhancements as compared with those of NDVI and NDII, particularly in sparsely vegetated regions.

Joanna Joiner↗

Recent Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Variability and Its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation in Reanalyses and Seasonal Forecasts

Sea ice is considered an important indicator of climate change. Interest has focused on the trend towards reduced sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, particularly during summer months. In the Southern Hemisphere, sea ice has also received attention due to a trend towards increasing cover, in opposition to the Northern Hemisphere and to climate model projections. This all changed in the austral spring 2016, when the Southern Ocean sea ice cover dropped dramatically, and has remained consistently at below average values up to the present. Here I review some of the issues and perceived causes of the 2016 sea ice reduction. Several studies have suggested a change in surface winds, which would allow warmer waters to move upwards in the water column and towards the surface. Results from the GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) ocean data assimilation system are consistent with this hypothesis, and indicate a significant warming of subsurface waters occurred in the winter of 2016, and has remained in place.

Polar↗

Modeling of Condensations in Coronal Loops Produced by Nanoflares with Variable Frequency and Location

The presence of condensations in active regions has the potential to be an important diagnostic of coronal heating. We present the results of models of nanoflare heated coronal loops using the 1-D hydrodynamic ARGOS code. The nanoflares are modeled by discrete pulses of energy along the loop. We explore the occurrence of cold condensations due to the effective equivalent of thermal non-equilibrium (TNE) in loops with steady heating, and examine its dependence on nanoflare timing and intensity and also nanoflares location along the loop, including of randomized distributions of nanoflares. We find that randomizing nanoflare distributions, both in time/intensity and location, tends to diminish the likelihood of condensations compared to regularly occurring nanoflares with the same average properties, but that condensations can sometimes occur in regimes where regular nanoflares would not produce TNE. Also, the condensations stay in the loop for a shorter amount of time when the nanoflares distributions are random. These properties can be used in the future to investigate diagnostics of coronal heating mechanisms.

T A Kucera↗

Bridging Scales in Bioenergy and Catalysis: A Review of Mesoscale Modeling Applications, Methods, and Future Directions

Between the molecular and reactor scales, which are familiar to the chemical engineering community, lies an intermediate regime, here termed the “mesoscale,” where transport phenomena and reaction kinetics compete on similar time scales. Bioenergy and catalytic processes offer particularly important examples of mesoscale phenomena owing to their multiphase nature and the complex, highly variable porosity characteristic of biomass and many structured catalysts. In this review, we overview applications and methods central to mesoscale modeling as they apply to reaction engineering of biomass conversion and catalytic processing. A brief historical perspective is offered to put recent advances in context. Applications of mesoscale modeling are described, and several specific examples from biomass pyrolysis and catalytic upgrading of bioderived intermediates are highlighted. Methods including reduced order modeling, finite element and finite volume approaches, geometry construction and import, and visualization of simulation results are described; in each category, recent advances, current limitations, and areas for future development are presented. Owing to improved access to high-performance computational resources, advances in algorithm development, and sustained interest in reaction engineering to sustainably meet societal needs, we conclude that a significant upsurge in mesoscale modeling capabilities is on the horizon that will accelerate design, deployment, and optimization of new bioenergy and catalytic technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗