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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

An ICME Modeling Framework for Titanium/Tungsten-Carbide Metal Matrix Composites

This report describes a collaborative project to develop a validated, predictive model for the high temperature mechanical properties of a titanium-matrix, tungsten-carbide/cobalt-reinforced metal matrix composite. The modeling approach was to first develop a detailed, microstructural model linking the material structure and the interfacial debonding properties to the effective properties of the material. The project then completed a throughput simulation campaign to generate a large number of simulations for discrete microstructures and different debonding parameters. Finally, the project trained a fast, Gaussian process surrogate model against this simulation database to provide a quick model linking the material compositions, structure, and processing parameters to the resulting material properties. This model was validated against high temperature tensile test data on a few particular composite compositions. The tests validate the model predictions for ultimate tensile strength and uniform elongation/ductility, meaning the final surrogate model can now be used to tune the material composition and processing parameters to identify optimal composite compositions for particular applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Applying 3D Geologic Modeling Workflows to the Argillite Reference Case (Rev. 1)

The objective of this short report is to document the application of our 3D geologic modeling workflow to an argillite (shale) host rock. Over the past four years, our team at Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a geologic modeling workflow that can be applied to generic alluvial basins such as those found in the western United States. In “frontier” or “exploratory” basins where data are sparse, the first steps are to collect, evaluate and integrate available subsurface data into conceptual geologic models. Those models form the basis for constructing the geologic framework model, a 3D geocellular model ideally constrained by seismic and borehole data. To date we have constructed our models using “synthetic” well data derived from conceptual models, without the prospect of validating our workflow using “real” subsurface data. We were tasked to investigate whether our workflow designed for alluvial basin sediments could be applied to other potential repository host rocks. This task also provided the opportunity to work with high-quality subsurface data collected specifically for siting and evaluating a nuclear waste repository. Nagra, the Swiss governmental agency responsible for the disposal of the nation’s radioactive waste, generously provided us with data from two deep boreholes drilled through their argillaceous target formation. The aim of our proof-of-concept demonstration is to evaluate whether geostatistical methods offer a viable approach to property modeling in argillaceous rocks. Nagra provided us with the well data on the condition that we maintain confidentiality with all transferred information and results. Fortunately, Nagra posts numerous technical reports on its public website that describe the subsurface geology in great detail. All of the information and illustrations in this report related to the Swiss repository enterprise are taken from the Nagra public website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Simple Data-Centric Methodology for Producible Geothermal Well Determinations: Preprint

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has traditionally lacked a standardized methodology for determining if a newly drilled geothermal well is "producible," a designation essential for deciding whether a lease should be "held by production." This is a straightforward problem to solve in oil and gas: Demonstrate that a well is economically viable, meaning it produces sufficient oil or gas to exceed direct operating costs and lease-related expenses, such as rentals or minimum royalties. In geothermal, the problem is more complex: Geothermal wells are tightly coupled with the downstream infrastructure - specifically, the power plant, which is often not designed until well after a lease is deemed as "held by production." Although this designation is critical for advancing geothermal power plant development on BLM-managed lands, current geothermal well assessments often rely on ad hoc approaches that can be complex, operator-biased, and heavy in assumptions related to economic viability. To address this, we have developed two complementary methodologies: a minimum power requirement-based approach and a productivity index (PI)-based approach. These methods leverage key flow test data - pressure, temperature, flow rate, and specific enthalpy - to provide reliable and standardized producible well determinations. The minimum power requirement-based approach evaluates wells against specific power output thresholds informed by reservoir experts and the associated temperature requirements. The PI-based approach assesses well productivity using widely accepted reservoir engineering metrics, proposing a threshold of 2.5 kg/s/bar. Both methods are data-driven and grounded in empirical production data from operational geothermal wells, avoiding uncertain economic assumptions while maintaining decision-making accuracy. Wells falling below key performance thresholds (i.e., PI, specific power) are deemed non-producible. These methodologies aim to streamline BLM's decision-making process, reduce nontechnical barriers to geothermal energy adoption, and enable regulatory expansion into states lacking geothermal expertise. Preliminary results indicate clear trends and thresholds in production data that provide actionable insights for evaluating well producibility. Validation using well completion report (WCR) data is ongoing, with promising results demonstrating the potential for these standardized methodologies to impact geothermal development significantly.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Correction for Neutral Pressure-Driven Signal in Radiated Power Measurements on Proto-MPEX

A pinhole camera using four-channel resistive bolometers was designed and implemented on the Prototype Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (Proto-MPEX) to measure the plasma radiated power. Quantification of the radiated power is required for comprehensive power balance assessments but faces unique challenges on linear plasma devices due to weak absolute signal, compared to typical use in toroidal fusion plasmas, and high neutral pressure changes. Around 1 mTorr, the pressure-driven signal contribution was shown to overwhelm the radiated power signal in Proto-MPEX, found to be ~3 μW . Since the pressure-driven signals could not be predicted from first principle arguments, the signals were corrected using empirical models that take two experimental pressure measurements and the raw bolometer signal to reveal the radiated power signals. Four “gas-only” Proto-MPEX shots were taken, without the radio frequency (rf) plasma discharge, to train, optimize, and validate empirical models. The data included two pressure measurements at different locations along with the bolometer signal. Multiple models were tested; partial least-squares regression with a cross correlation method to account for the time offset in the pressure measurements provided the best combination of accuracy and stability. The model was validated to have a modeling error of 0.0036 V, which was lower than 10% of the expected radiated power signal. The model was tested on a different “gas-only” shot with a complete time-series data. For plasma operation shots, the corrected bolometer measurements were compared with an absolute extreme ultraviolet photodiode measurement and similarities and differences are discussed.

Lee, Seungsup↗

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling, Load Profile Validation, and Assessment of Solar-Rooftop Energy Potential for Low-and-Moderate-Income Communities in the Caribbean

This document presents the modeling of load profile consumption for Low-and-Moderate-Income (LMI) communities in the Caribbean Islands, as well as an assessment of the solar-rooftop energy potential. In this work, real data, together with synthetic and electricity bill data, were collected to validate and improve the load profile models. The solar-rooftop energy potential was obtained through a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) software called the PVWatts calculator, and mathematical analysis. The analysis of rooftop solar energy potential was conducted to enable the minimum size of solar power systems to fit the energy demand in the community. The results obtained allow estimation of the capacity of the energy system for each house or an entire community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fast and Accurate Frequency Response Estimation for Large Power System Disturbances Using Second Derivative of Frequency Data

Accurate Frequency Response Estimation (FRE) is critical to reliability risk management of large power system disturbances. This letter proposes a measurement-driven approach for FRE by calculating the second derivative of frequency from synchrophasor data. Compared with conventional methods, the proposed method has major advantages of low computational burden and high accuracy, which makes it appropriate for real-time FRE in bulk power systems. The effectiveness of this method is validated with actual synchrophasor data on 96 confirmed historical power system disturbances in the U.S. eastern interconnection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Visual Analytic Platform for Interactive Validation of Human Mobility Simulations

Human mobility insights guide domain experts in an array of decisions, including critical infrastructure design, disaster response, epidemic modeling, national security, and policy making. Due to the inherent noise and privacy concerns in real-world individual-level mobility data, it is often preferred to leverage simulators that generate synthetic mobility data instead. However, it is critical to inspect and validate the output of such simulators to ensure the synthetic data is aligned with the characteristics of the population and the area of interest known to domain experts. While there exist many quantitative approaches for validating synthetic data, we argue it is also important to also validate such data qualitatively to capture aspects that are known to domain experts but difficult to quantify. In this work, we demonstrate a visual analytic platform that empowers domain experts to interact with their simulation outputs along spatial and temporal dimensions. By augmenting automated techniques and human skills, our visual analytic platform is a step towards interactive capabilities for model steering and quality control of mobility simulators.

Monadjemi, Shayan↗

Control Strategies and Validation in the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP)

The Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) is a tool that simulates hybrid power plants in various configurations, and also calculates the financial feasibility of these plants. This report outlines an overview of HOPP and the energy storage dispatch strategies available. It then presents three case studies which demonstrate different applications of HOPP. The first case looks at the profitability of hybrid power plants in different locations in the USA. The second case examines the availability of hybrid power plants to provide energy reliability services. The third case presents a plant that produces both hydrogen and electricity, and demonstrates a dispatch strategy that chooses the most profitable energy vector based on price signals. The next section shows the validation of HOPP on operational data, using data from both unit-scale and utility-scale power plants. This validation process demonstrated that HOPP can simulate the power output of both wind and solar PV plants at both scales with comparable fidelity to an existing commercial software tool. Finally, HOPP is applied in a field test which applies an optimal dispatch strategy to a physical battery in a unit-scale hybrid plant at NREL. HOPP's optimal dispatch strategy, applied in a real-world setting, improved this hybrid plant's ability to meet a load signal while minimizing operational costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Machine Learning-based Prediction of Departure from Nucleate Boiling Power for the PSBT Benchmark

Machine Learning (ML) has seen an exponential growth in its applications due to its advanced data driven prediction capabilities. The study presents a data-driven approach as a preliminary attempt to predict the power at which departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) occurs in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) by constructing an advanced ML algorithm that takes outlet pressure, inlet temperature and inlet mass flux as the input features. DNB is a critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon seen in PWRs. The experimental data from the PWR subchannel and bundle tests (PSBT) benchmark is first used to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the DNB power, which produces a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.89 kW/m when tested on a blind subset of the PSBT data. Since the PSBT dataset is relatively small to train an accurate ANN, a data augmentation methodology based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) is used to expand the training dataset. By assuming that the real data follows a certain distribution, GANs try to learn that underlying distribution to generate similar synthetic data to augment the database and to improve the predictive capabilities of the ANN. The data generated from GANs are validated using 1-nearest neighbor and kernel maximum mean discrepancy. To further ensure data from GAN is similar to PSBT, the data is tested and filtered out using the sub-channel thermal-hydraulic code CTF. The results indicate that with the addition of 120 data points from GAN the RMSE reduces to 4.84 kW/m showing promising results for future developments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

HED Hydrodynamics in the Common Modeling Framework

Within the Common Modeling Framework (CMF), the HED Hydrodynamics Project has implemented a common methodology, or "Authority", for modeling high energy density (HED) experiments by extending development of the Eulerian Applications Project code Authority, "EAPA," to include relevant physics models, customization tools and templates, and in situ and post-processing capabilities. Additionally, several models for small-scale HED experiments were successfully added to the CMF and simulations reproduce the results of preexisting, benchmarked input decks. We expect use of the CMF to improve our effectiveness in developing predictive capabilities for experiments ranging from small-scale planar single-interface, single-shock to multi-interface, multi-shock configurations and up through multi-shell inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Additionally, this will strengthen our ability to design future targeted experiments. Using the CMF infrastructure and Authorities for HED modeling has three key impacts. First, it enables a version-controlled, pedigreed and archived base model for each experiment with tools that allow easy setup, execution and analysis of simulations to assess and/or expose sensitivities to various parameters. Second, having a common base set of inputs and physics definitions helps identify systematic differences between models in the codes and experimental data to support code validation, and build confidence in our predictive capabilities. Finally, designed to work in concert with multiple programs and projects including PEM, IC, OES, V&V and DSW, the CMF supports improved collaboration and integration through shared model definitions, data, simulations and results, enhancing the workflow required to underwrite the knowledge base and capabilities ultimately required for stockpile stewardship

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Early Data Release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) completed its 5 month Survey Validation in 2021 May. Spectra of stellar and extragalactic targets from Survey Validation constitute the first major data sample from the DESI survey. This paper describes the public release of those spectra, the catalogs of derived properties, and the intermediate data products. In total, the public release includes good-quality spectral information from 466,447 objects targeted as part of the Milky Way Survey, 428,758 as part of the Bright Galaxy Survey, 227,318 as part of the Luminous Red Galaxy sample, 437,664 as part of the Emission Line Galaxy sample, and 76,079 as part of the Quasar sample. In addition, the release includes spectral information from 137,148 objects that expand the scope beyond the primary samples as part of a series of secondary programs. Here, we describe the spectral data, data quality, data products, Large-Scale Structure science catalogs, access to the data, and references that provide relevant background to using these spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Expanding Access to Science Participation: A FAIR Framework for Petascale Data Visualization and Analytics

The massive data generated by scientists daily serve as both a major catalyst for new discoveries and innovations, as well as a significant roadblock that restricts access to the data. Here, our paper introduces a new approach to removing Big Data barriers and democratizing access to petascale data for the broader scientific community. Our novel data fabric abstraction layer allows user-friendly querying of scientific information while hiding the complexities of dealing with file systems or cloud services. We enable FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) access to datasets such as NASA’s petascale climate datasets. Our paper presents an approach to managing, visualizing, and analyzing petabytes of data within a browser on equipment ranging from the top NASA supercomputer to commodity hardware like a laptop. Our novel data fabric abstraction utilizes state-of-the art progressive compression algorithms and machine-learning insights to power scalable visualization dashboards for petascale data. The result provides users with the ability to identify extreme events or trends dynamically, expanding access to scientific data and further enabling discoveries. We validate our approach by improving the ability of climate scientists to visually explore their data via three fully interactive dashboards. We further validate our approach by deploying the dashboards and simplified training materials in the classroom at a minority-serving institution. These dashboards, released in simplified form to the general public, contribute significantly to a broader push to democratize the access and use of climate data.

Computer science↗

Real-time reconstruction of ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes: A pilot study

This study presents a pilot investigation into a novel method for reconstructing real-time ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes (M < 4.5), removing the need for computationally expensive source characterization and simulation processes to assess ground shaking. Small magnitude earthquakes, which occur frequently and can be modeled as point sources, provide ideal conditions for evaluating real-time reconstruction methods. Utilizing sparse observation data, the method applies the Gappy Auto-Encoder (Gappy AE) algorithm for efficient field data reconstruction. This is the first study to apply the Gappy AE algorithm to earthquake ground motion reconstruction. Numerical experiments conducted with SW4 simulations demonstrate the method’s accuracy and speed across varying seismic scenarios. The reconstruction performance is further validated using real seismic data from the Berkeley area in California, USA, demonstrating the potential for practical application of real-time earthquake data reconstruction using Gappy AE. As a pilot investigation, it lays the groundwork for future applications to larger and more complex seismic events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Based Metamodel for Faster Life Cycle Assessment of Large Portfolio of Buildings

Managing a large portfolio of buildings involves decisions on reuse, retrofit, renovation, rehabilitation, and new construction, influenced by trade-offs between performance metrics such as cost, time, and operational flexibility over the building's life cycle. Traditional life cycle assessment tools for evaluating these metrics can be labor- and compute-intensive, requiring extensive data and modeling for each building. Metamodels (or surrogate models) using machine learning have been explored as faster alternatives, but training these models has been hindered by the limited availability of comprehensive data on key life cycle metrics. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly deep learning techniques like zero-shot and few-shot learning, allow models to learn from sparse or limited data. We propose a machine learning-based metamodel that leverages these techniques for rapid estimation of key building life cycle metrics. This presentation will cover the model architecture, data collection, training, and validation processes, along with an ongoing case study applied to a large portfolio of buildings. We will discuss the model's performance in terms of accuracy, compute time, limitations, and its potential for expanding to additional life cycle metrics. This data-driven approach offers a promising direction for the rapid evaluation of large building portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fan and Pump Efficiency in Modelica based on the Euler Number

Simulation programs often assume constant hydraulic efficiency for fan or pump models when performance curves are unavailable. This is inaccurate because the hydraulic efficiency varies with the operation condition. It therefore consistently underestimates the power draw at off-design conditions at which the hydraulic efficiency drops. Use of a modified Euler number allows computing the hydraulic efficiency and shaft power with limited data. Others showed the validity of the modified Euler number for fan efficiency calculations. We show that it is also applicable for pumps, and present its implementation in Modelica for a fan or pump model. Here, the only input required from the user is one data point at which the hydraulic efficiency is at its maximum. The reported method is applicable regardless of the type, size, or operational region of the fan or pump. Across a sample of eighteen sets of pump data and seven sets of fan data, the errors of the computed power from interpolated data were within 15% for the range of 20% - 70% of maximum flow rate and 40% - 90% of maximum pressure rise, excluding outliers.

component model↗

2.3.3.404 - National Lab and University Collaboration for MHK Instrumentation and Data Processing Tools

Field and laboratory validation, testing, demonstration, and operation are critical steps for increasing the technology readiness level of marine energy (ME) converters because they provide high-quality testing and performance data that are critical information used to feed all aspects of technology development. This project, in partnership with industry, enables the marine and hydrokinetic energy (MHK) community to reliably and efficiently collect, process, manage, and share quality data by facilitating access to and development of instrumentation, guidelines and data processing/QA tools. Under this project, open-source data processing code (MHKiT) and tools (ME Data Pipeline, MRE Code Hub, PRIMRE Code Catalog), instrumentation (loads measurements), data acquisition systems (miniDAQ), and measurement guidance tools (Telesto, high EMI guidance) were developed to facilitate the collection and processing of quality laboratory and field data. Overall, this project is intended to improve the quality of the data collected during laboratory and field demonstration projects by standardizing the collection and processing techniques, as well as by improving access to instrumentation, code, and measurement guidance. Quality data will, in turn, lead to improved knowledge capture following ME device testing.

data processing↗