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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

An error-controlled adaptive time-stepping method for particle advancement in coupled CFD-DEM simulations

Coupled Computational-Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) and Discrete-Element-Method (DEM) models provide an accurate description of multiphase physical systems where a solid granular particle phase exists in an underlying gaseous continuous medium. The time integration of the granular phase in these simulations is typically handled using an explicit scheme with a constant time-step among all particles that is invariant in time to resolve inter-particle collisions. A locally third-order accurate adaptive time integration technique for particles that employs an embedded locally second-order scheme for error determination is presented in this work. The particle time-step size is dynamically adapted based on solution error, thus leading to significant savings in computational time. The efficacy of our scheme is quantified using four test cases of varying complexity (binary collision, homogeneous cooling system, fluidized bed and hopper discharge). The adaptive time-stepping method exhibits improved performance (~ 2–3 times in most of the cases studied) compared to three commonly used non-adaptive time-step methods (first-order Euler-explicit, second-order Adams-Bashforth and third-order Runge-Kutta schemes), while maintaining the same level of accuracy and parallel scalability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-field modeling of stored-energy-driven grain growth with intra-granular variation in dislocation density

Abstract We present a phase-field (PF) model to simulate the microstructure evolution occurring in polycrystalline materials with a variation in the intra-granular dislocation density. The model accounts for two mechanisms that lead to the grain boundary migration: the driving force due to capillarity and that due to the stored energy arising from a spatially varying dislocation density. In addition to the order parameters that distinguish regions occupied by different grains, we introduce dislocation density fields that describe spatial variation of the dislocation density. We assume that the dislocation density decays as a function of the distance the grain boundary has migrated. To demonstrate and parameterize the model, we simulate microstructure evolution in two dimensions, for which the initial microstructure is based on real-time experimental data. Additionally, we applied the model to study the effect of a cyclic heat treatment (CHT) on the microstructure evolution. Specifically, we simulated stored-energy-driven grain growth during three thermal cycles, as well as grain growth without stored energy that serves as a baseline for comparison. We showed that the microstructure evolution proceeded much faster when the stored energy was considered. A non-self-similar evolution was observed in this case, while a nearly self-similar evolution was found when the microstructure evolution is driven solely by capillarity. These results suggest a possible mechanism for the initiation of abnormal grain growth during CHT. Finally, we demonstrate an integrated experimental-computational workflow that utilizes the experimental measurements to inform the PF model and its parameterization, which provides a foundation for the development of future simulation tools capable of quantitative prediction of microstructure evolution during non-isothermal heat treatment.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Logical error rates for the surface code under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions

With fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) on the horizon, it is critical to understand sources of logical errors in plausible hardware implementations of quantum error-correcting codes. Detailed error modeling of computational instructions on particular FTQC architectures will enable the better prediction of error propagation in FT-encoded quantum circuits while revealing where greater attention is needed in hardware design. In this work, we consider logical error rates for the surface code implemented on a hypothetical grid-based trapped-ion quantum charge-coupled device architecture. Specifically, we construct logical channels for the idling surface code and examine its diamond error under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions. We include the coherent dephasing noise that is known to accumulate during physical qubit idling and transport in these systems, determining idling and transport durations using the time-resolved output of an open-source trapped-ion surface code compiler. To estimate expectation values of logical Pauli observables following hardware circuits containing non-Clifford sources of noise, we utilize a Monte Carlo technique to sample from an underlying quasiprobability distribution of Clifford circuits that we independently simulate in a phase-sensitive fashion. We verify error suppression up to code distance 𝑑 = 11 at coherent dephasing rates near and below those of current-generation trapped-ion quantum computers and find that logical error rates align with those of analogous fully stochastic simulations in this regime. Exploring higher dephasing rates at 𝑑 = 3−5, we find evidence for growing coherent rotations about all three logical Pauli axes, increased diagonal logical error process matrix elements relative to those of stochastic simulations, and a reduced dephasing rate threshold. Overall, our work paves a way toward realistic hardware emulation of small fault-tolerant quantum processes, e.g., members of an FTQC instruction set.

Quantum benchmarking↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetism and its coexistence with superconductivity in CaK(Fe 0.949 Ni 0.051 ) 4 As 4 : Muon spin rotation/relaxation studies

Here, the magnetic response of Ca K ( Fe 0.949 Ni 0.051 ) 4 As 4 was investigated by means of the muon spin rotation/relaxation. The long-range commensurate magnetic order sets in below the Néel temperature T N = 50.0 ( 5 ) K. The density-functional theory calculations have identified three possible muon stopping sites. The experimental data were found to be consistent with only one type of magnetic structure, namely, the long-range magnetic spin-vortex-crystal order with the hedgehog motif within the a b plane and the antiferromagnetic stacking along the c direction. The value of the ordered magnetic moment at T ≈ 3 K was estimated to be m Fe = 0.38 ( 11 ) μ B ( μ B is the Bohr magneton). A microscopic coexistence of magnetic and superconducting phases accompanied by a reduction of the magnetic order parameter below the superconducting transition temperature T c ≃ 9 K is observed. Comparison with 11, 122, and 1144 families of Fe-based pnictides points to existence of correlation between the reduction of the magnetic order parameter at T → 0 and the ratio of the transition temperatures T c / T N . Such correlations were found to be described by Machida's model for coexistence of itinerant spin-density-wave magnetism and superconductivity [K. Machida, J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 50 , 2195 (1981) ; S. L. Bud'ko et al. , Phys. Rev. B 98 , 144520 (2018) ].

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solar Resource and Infrastructure Assessment for the Town of Wendell

This report is a solar resource and infrastructure assessment for the town of Wendell, Massachusetts. The assessment was funded through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Solar Energy Innovation Network (NREL SEIN) Solar in Rural Communities Program, as part of a project to develop a Community-Informed Proactive Solar Siting and Financing Model. As a first step, the project lead organization, UMass Clean Energy Extension prepared an assessment of existing infrastructure, resources, and potential solar development opportunities in participating municipalities, including Wendell. This assessment was designed to describe relevant bylaws and infrastructure within the town, identify the types of solar facilities that could be developed, and quantify the total space available for each type of facility. In this report, we reviewed existing electricity grid infrastructure, and the potential to interconnect additional solar facilities. At the present time, both distribution lines providing electricity to Wendell are over-saturated with authorized and proposed solar projects, and cannot accommodate additional solar projects to interconnect to the grid. It appears that National Grid is planning an upgrade to the Wendell Depot substation, which might then allow in-process projects are to proceed, and potentially free up additional capacity for new, large projects. Meanwhile, most three-phase lines could likely accommodate additional small-to-medium scale projects (under 200 kW), and most single-phase lines could likely accommodate additional projects under 50 kW in size. This description represents the local grid infrastructure as it is - planning for future scenarios of development could include recommendations for areas of grid infrastructure improvement to allow siting of distributed generation in locations preferred by the community. Future scenarios may also include the addition energy storage and other "non-wires alternatives."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal design of chemoepitaxial guideposts for the directed self-assembly of block copolymer systems using an inexact Newton algorithm

Directed self-assembly (DSA) of block copolymers (BCPs) is one of the most promising developments in the cost-effective production of nanoscale devices. The process makes use of the natural tendency for BCP melts to form nanoscale structures upon phase separation. The phase separation can be directed through the use of chemically patterned substrates to promote the formation of morphologies that are essential to the production of semiconductor devices. Moreover, the design of substrate pattern can be formulated as an optimization problem for which we seek optimal substrate designs that effectively produce given target morphologies. In this paper, we adopt a phase field model given by a nonlocal Cahn–Hilliard partial differential equation (PDE) based on the minimization of the Ohta–Kawasaki free energy, and present an efficient PDE-constrained optimization framework for the optimal design problem. The design variables are the locations of circular- or strip-shaped guiding posts that are used to model the substrate chemical pattern. To solve the ensuing optimization problem, we propose a variant of an inexact Newton conjugate gradient algorithm tailored to this problem. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our computational strategy on numerical examples that span a range of target morphologies. Owing to our second-order optimizer and fast state solver, the numerical results demonstrate five orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost over previous work. The efficiency of our framework and the fast convergence of our optimization algorithm enable us to rapidly solve the optimal design problem in not only two, but also three spatial dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A 3D helical filament surrogate model for 3D tokamak equilibria

A novel approach for efficient representation of three-dimensional (3D) tokamak equilibria is investigated, where a set of helical current filaments occupying the plasma region are employed to resolve deviations from the two-dimensional (2D) axi-symmetric state. A discrete set of 3D filaments, located at rational surfaces for a given toroidal mode number n and following the 2D equilibrium field lines (thus forming closed current loops), are found to provide a surrogate model of 3D equilibria with reasonable accuracy. Specifically, application of the filament model to 3D perturbed equilibria, due to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) in DIII-D and MAST-U discharges, reveals that (1) a single helical filament per rational surface is sufficient; (2) 21 such helical filaments are capable of representing the n = 2 3D response field in MAST-U with less than 10% relative error as compared to that computed by a full magnetohydrodynamic code; (3) optimizing currents (both amplitude and phase) flowing in 3D filaments with fixed geometry, the highest accuracy fitting is found to depend on the characteristics of the 3D equilibria such as the coil current phasing of the RMP coils in our case studies. Here, whis filament approach is also applicable for generating surrogate models of other type of 3D tokamak equilibria, including those during the initial phase of the plasma disruption.

MARS-F↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase field modeling of dislocations and obstacles in InSb

We present a phase-field dislocation dynamics (PFDD) model informed by first-principle calculations to elucidate the competitive dislocation nucleation and propagation between the glide and shuffle sets in InSb diamond cubic crystal. The calculations are directly informed with generalized stacking fault energy curves on the (111) slip plane for both the “glide set,” with the smaller interplanar spacing, and the “shuffle set,” with the larger interplanar spacing. The formulation also includes elastic anisotropy and the gradient term associated with the dislocation core. The PFDD calculations show that under no stress the equilibrium structure of screw glide set dislocations dissociates into Shockley partials, while those of the shuffle set dislocations do not dissociate, remaining compact. The calculated dislocation core widths of these InSb dislocations agree well with the measured values for other semiconductor materials, such as Si and GaN. We find that a shuffle set dislocation emits from a dislocation source at an applied stress about three times smaller than that needed to emit leading and trailing partials successively on the glide set plane. Once the partial dislocations in the glide set are emitted, they propagate faster than the shuffle set perfect dislocation at the same stress level.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adsorption Equilibrium, Kinetics, and Column Breakthrough Data of Acetic Acid, Butyric Acid, and Lactic Acid on IRN-78 Ion-exchange Resin at Initial pH ~3 – 7 and Temperature 25 – 55 °C

This work presents systematic aqueous-phase adsorption equilibrium, kinetics, and column breakthrough measurements with three key biointermediates that are common compounds in many bioprocesses. Adsorption equilibrium experiments were carried out with acetic acid, butyric acid, and lactic acid on a commercial ion-exchange resin, Amberlite IRN-78, at wide ranges of acid concentration (8-500 mmol/L), initial pH (similar to 3-7), and temperature (25-55 degrees C), simulating the effluent characteristics from different fermenter operations. The kinetics and column breakthrough experiments were conducted at an initial pH of 6 and a concentration of 200 mmol/L. The equilibrium study shows a higher loading at the initial pH < pK(a) and a lower loading at the initial pH > pK(a). Overall removal varies between 16 and 99% depending on the initial pH, temperature, and organic acid concentration and type. The study further indicates monolayer adsorption at the equilibrium pH > 10 and multilayer adsorption at the equilibrium pH < 6. The thermodynamic modeling of adsorption isotherm data was carried out using Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. IRN-78 presents fast adsorption kinetics as the maximum loading was attained in <= 10 min and nearly the same breakthrough time for all three organic acids involved in this study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary design overview and performance assessment of the ITER low-field side reflectometer

The design of the ITER low-field side reflectometer (LFSR) has matured to a complete end-to-end preliminary design. LFSR will supply three key plasma measurements: (1) electron density profile, (2) electron density fluctuations, and (3) poloidal rotation. Simultaneous measurements of the three quantities are enabled by an array of six monostatic antennas which inject from an equatorial port on the outboard side of the ITER vessel. Low-loss transmission lines, consisting of corrugated, overmoded waveguide and miter bends, transmit the 30–165 GHz, O- and X-mode signals to and from the ITER plasma. Integrated transmission-line components serve a range of purposes, such as protection from high-power stray radiofrequency radiation, accommodation of transmission-line displacement, and simultaneous measurement of reference and plasma phases during the discharge. Broadband transmission signals are realized by full-band microwave transceivers combined with quasi-optical multiplexing. A field-programmable gate array (FPGA) processor demodulates the profile reflectometer signals, enabling real-time density profile measurements for plasma control system feedback. A full-scale transmission line test facility provides an integrated environment to assess the performance of critical LFSR components. Theoretical modeling together with insertion loss measurements provide the basis for a comprehensive power budget, which accounts for transmitted output power, transmission-line losses, antenna coupling, and plasma effects. Results indicate that high signal-to-noise ratios are achievable with the current design. A synthetic reflectometer model, using real design parameters and baseline ITER profiles, has been developed to estimate the return signal. With evolving microwave and data acquisition technologies, full-band, ultrafast sweeps (<1 μs) will be realizable for ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling DOE Standard Canister Configurations with Updated Surface Chemistry

Road-ready and final disposition packaging configurations for the advanced test reactor (ATR) fuel currently specifies storage within helium backfilled DOE sealed standard canisters. The aluminum cladding of the ATR fuel contains an oxyhydroxide layer of boehmite/bayerite that generates hydrogen when subjected to irradiation. Understanding the effect of this hydrogen buildup over time to important for long term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have built a coupled CFD-chemical model to simulate the temperature gas phase concentrations within the DOE sealed standard canisters. These models have coupled the temperature conditions to both the gas phase radiolysis chemistry and the surface chemistry associated with the oxyhydroxide layer. Continued experimental work has identified trends for aluminum surrogate samples with oxyhydroxide layers for tests done at higher dose rates. At low initial doses a fast generation rate of hydrogen occurs which starts to roll over to a lower generation rate as the total dose applied in increased. A previous study created a small-scale chemical model was built to replicate a mini-canister surrogate system at SRNL as well as for the smaller capsule tests performed at INL. The previous iteration of the model utilized step function for its G-values for the hydrogen generation over a 200-year period. This model makes an update to the surface chemistry to account for theorized surface chemistry reactions allowing for oxygen to remain bounded to the oxyhydroxide layer. As additional experiments continue, the kinetic fits may be adjusted to adapt to new data. Three canister configurations are modeled – the base 18-inch, 15-foot DOR standard canister with 30 ATR fuel elements, an 18-inch, 10-foot DOE standard canister with 32 ATR fuel elements and a 24-inch, 10-foot DOE standard canister with 40 ATR fuel elements. In previous reports, the primary sensitivity of the canister conditions was identified as the decay heat of the fuel and the dried condition of the fuel. Only these parameters are studied in the report. For the nominal case with dried fuel, the hydrogen generation is only about 2%, so it is even less than the flammability limit if it were exposed to oxygen. For the densely packed 18-inch case the total hydrogen concentration is only around 4% with the nominal decay heat. For the densely packed 24-inch case the total hydrogen concentration is only 2.5%, roughly 20% higher than the original packing design, and still under flammability conditions if exposed to oxygen.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Covariant Density Functionals of Nuclear Matter for Compact Star Simulations

We generate three families of extended covariant density functionals of nuclear matter that have varying slope of symmetry energy and skewness at nuclear saturation density, but otherwise share the same basic parameters (symmetry energy, compressibility, saturation parameters, etc.) with the standard DDME2, DD2, and MPE functionals. Tables of the parameters of these new density functionals are given, which can be straightforwardly used in DDME2, DD2, and MPE parameterization-based codes. Furthermore, we provide tables of a large number of equations of state (81 for each family) that can be used in astrophysical simulations to assess the impact of variations of the not-well-known slope of symmetry energy and skewness of nuclear systems on the astrophysics of compact objects. We also provide tables of computed integral parameters (mass, radius, and tidal deformability) that can be used, e.g., for modeling gravitational waveforms. Finally, for the extended DDME2-based parameterization, we implement a first-order phase transition to quark matter to obtain a family of equations of state that accommodates a phase transition to quark matter. Analogous tables of the equations of state and integral parameters are provided for this case as well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete quantum geometry and intrinsic spin Hall effect

We show that the quantum geometry of the Fermi surface can be numerically described by a three-dimensional discrete quantum manifold. This approach not only avoids singularities in the Fermi sea, but it also enables the precise computation of the intrinsic Hall conductivity resolved in spin, as well as any other local properties of the Fermi surface. The method assures numerical accuracy when the Fermi level is arbitrarily close to singularities, and it remains robust when Kramers degeneracy is protected by symmetry. Furthermore, the approach is demonstrated by calculating the anomalous Hall and spin Hall conductivities of a two-band lattice model of a Weyl semimetal and a full-band ab initio model of zinc-blende GaAs.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Production for Maximum Structural Efficiency With Respect to Fiber Orientation With Increased Understanding of Hybrid Fiber Flow Behavior

Discontinuous fiber-reinforced thermoplastic composites have gained considerable attention in automotive, aerospace, and other industries, due to their high-rate of production combined with their ability to attain complex and intricate shapes. Among other high-rate thermoplastic manufacturing processes, injection-molding is one of the most common manufacturing methods due to fast production and high surface finishing of complex geometries. Fiber orientation in discontinuous fiber composites plays a pivotal role in determining the mechanical, electrical, and thermomechanical properties, underscoring the necessity to comprehend fiber orientation in injection molded parts. Among different fiber types, glass and carbon fibers are most common in the composite industries. The recent trend of hybrid composites comprising both glass fiber (GF) and carbon fiber (CF) is also gaining importance in the automotive industry. Hybrid fiber options allow designers to optimize the balance between glass and carbon fibers by leveraging the high durability and low cost of GF while the strength and lightweight properties of CF. Consequently, comparing the fiber oriented distribution (FOD) of injection molded composites containing GF, CF, and a hybrid of GF/CF is critical to investigating the local mechanical properties of intricate structures for high-end applications. In Phase I of this project, FOD in injection-molded panels with respect to distance from the gate was analyzed using X-ray computed tomography (X-CT) for GF, CF, and hybrid CF/GF (CGF) reinforced nylon 66. To understand the reason behind the FOD with different fiber types, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and rheology were performed. Samples were extracted at three locations: near the gate, center, and opposite end. Thickness of the layers of typical skin-shell-core type FOD varies with fiber type and location. GF achieved flow direction alignment (in shell) earlier than viscous CF and CGF near the gate, whereas CF showed the highest flow-direction alignment at the center due to shear induced orientation. At the opposite end, GF experienced more backflow than others indicating faster mold filling owing to its lower viscosity. Hybrid CGF exhibited GF-dominated center and CF-dominated end region. The numerical model used to obtain FOD and rheological predictions for the CF and GF composites served to corroborate the trends observed in the experimental trials. The FOD responses across fiber types and location were reflected in their longitudinal and transverse properties. Only GF showed higher longitudinal modulus over transverse modulus near the gate attributed to rapid alignment, whereas CF and CGF exhibited opposite trend. However, fountain flow enhanced the longitudinal modulus over transverse modulus with the distance for all, particularly for CF. This study offers insights into mold filling behavior of different fibers which are critical in optimizing injection molding conditions for tailored final properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexocaloric effect in superelastic materials

We present a combined theoretical–experimental study of flexocaloric effects in superelastic materials exhibiting structural transitions. We study a Ginzburg–Landau model combined with a vibrational model for a beam near a ferroelastic transition loaded with a three-point bending setup. We also perform experiments on a Cu–Al–Ni single crystal undergoing a martensitic transition. We measure bent beam profiles, vertical force vs vertical deflection during a slow isothermal process, time evolution of the bending and unbending amplitudes, and the evolution of temperature profiles. We also compute the evolution of heat source and heat sink profiles. Finally, we study the location of acoustic emission events during the bending/unbending experiment. Our observations are consistent with the model predictions and allow us to identify the main physical parameters relevant for flexocaloric applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toroidal modeling of plasma flow damping and density pump-out by RMP during ELM mitigation in HL-2A

Reduction of both the plasma density and toroidal flow speed, due to application of the predominantly n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number) resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) for controlling the edge localized mode in the HL-2A tokamak, is numerically investigated utilizing the quasi-linear initial-value code MARS-Q (Liu et al 2013 Phys. Plasmas 20 042503). Simulation results reveal that the neoclassical toroidal viscosity (NTV) due to three dimensional fields plays the key role in modifying the plasma momentum and particle transport in the HL-2A discharge. By comparing the modeling results with the measured density pump-out in the experiment, the electron NTV particle flux model, in combination with the free-boundary condition for the axisymmetric change of the density at the plasma edge, is found to yield the best agreement in terms of both the pump-out level and the overall time scale. Further sensitivity studies show that the simulated density pump-out level is reasonably robust against variations in the model assumptions, including the particle diffusion model and the non-ambipolar versus ambipolar NTV particle flux. The latter however affects the time scale for reaching the steady state solution. Finally, it is found that the plasma edge-peeling response, the NTV torque, as well as the plasma momentum and particle transport, all are sensitive to the toroidal phase difference between the upper and lower rows of the RMP coil currents in HL-2A, with the 30 ∘ coil phasing producing the minimal side effects on the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗