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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Lidar Measurements and High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling of Coastally Trapped Disturbances off the Coast of California

Coastally Trapped disturbances (CTDs) are shifts in wind direction from the pre-dominant direction to equatorward to poleward for a period of time. These CTDs occur during the warm season off the California coast and impact coastal weather conditions and planned offshore wind plants. This study assesses the characteristics of CTD events as observed by lidar and other offshore buoys, then evaluates the ability of modeling systems to capture the correct characteristics, leveraging model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational modeling system and the NOW-23 (National Offshore Wind) model dataset. CTDs were analyzed for October 2020 and May through to October of 2021, identifying 18 unique CTD events, confirmed by a nearby National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy. The HRRR model captured most of these events, but the NOW-23 model output contained only 12 events. Composites of the wind, temperature, and pressure perturbations pre-, during, and post-event demonstrated the diminishment in wind speed, particularly for the alongshore component. Although the NOW-23 model captured the alongshore wind component and pressure perturbations well, the cross-shore wind component and temperature perturbations varied substantially. When the turbulent kinetic energy deviation and wind shear was positive across all levels pre-event, the NOW-23 modeling system was less likely to capture the CTD event. In contrast, the events that were captured by the model tended to have negative wind shear aloft pre-event.

coastal meteorology↗

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum computing and preconditioners for hydrological linear systems

Modeling hydrological fracture networks is a hallmark challenge in computational earth sciences. Accurately predicting critical features of fracture systems, e.g. percolation, can require solving large linear systems far beyond current or future high performance capabilities. Quantum computers can theoretically bypass the memory and speed constraints faced by classical approaches, however several technical issues must first be addressed. Chief amongst these difficulties is that such systems are often ill-conditioned, i.e. small changes in the system can produce large changes in the solution, which can slow down the performance of linear solving algorithms. We test several existing quantum techniques to improve the condition number, but find they are insufficient. We then introduce the inverse Laplacian preconditioner, which improves the scaling of the condition number of the system from O(N) to O($\sqrt{N}$) and admits a quantum implementation. These results are a critical first step in developing a quantum solver for fracture systems, both advancing the state of hydrological modeling and providing a novel real-world application for quantum linear systems algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supporting Arctic Research, Engagement, and Policy With GMAO’s Next Generation Reanalysis & Prediction Systems

Modeling efforts at NASA aim to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve our ability to predict climate, weather, and natural hazards. These efforts are particularly relevant for communities, scientists and stakeholders working and living in the Arctic. Here, we highlight current and planned Earth system prediction and data assimilation products from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We invite feedback and discussion on GMAO’s model and reanalysis development in support of Arctic research, engagement, and policy.

Lauren C Andrews↗

Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM). This methodology and corresponding model, known as a Goal-Function Tree (GFT), provides a means to represent, decompose, and elaborate system goals and functions in a rigorous manner that connects directly to design through use of state variables that translate natural language requirements and goals into logical-physical state language. The state variable-based approach also provides the means to directly connect FM to the design, by specifying the range in which state variables must be controlled to achieve goals, and conversely, the failures that exist if system behavior go out-of-range. This in turn allows for the systems engineers and SHM/FM engineers to determine which state variables to monitor, and what action(s) to take should the system fail to achieve that goal. In sum, the GFT representation provides a unified approach to early-phase SE and FM development. This representation and methodology has been successfully developed and implemented using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program. It enabled early design trade studies of failure detection coverage to ensure complete detection coverage of all crew-threatening failures. The representation maps directly both to FM algorithm designs, and to failure scenario definitions needed for design analysis and testing. The GFT representation provided the basis for mapping of abort triggers into scenarios, both needed for initial, and successful quantitative analyses of abort effectiveness (detection and response to crew-threatening events).

Patterson, Jonathan D.↗

Challenges and alternatives to empirical orthogonal functions for earth system data

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to gridded Earth system data enables users to diagnose modes of variability with relative ease. Yet, many challenges to interpretation exist such that they must be used with awareness and intention when applied to gridded climate data, especially with large ensembles. Utilizing data from two different Earth system modelling large ensemble frameworks, the Energy Exoscale Earth System Model and the Community Earth System Model, as well as reanalysis data, common EOF pitfalls are summarized and discussed. Challenges include erroneous mode swapping, sign flipping, and the temporal variability of the centers of action. For modes of variability with similar contribution to variance, mode swapping is not uncommon. Sign flipping can occur with almost any mode where the pattern is correct, but the sign is arbitrary. Although the variability of the center of action is not necessarily problematic, it potentially complicates interpretation over multi-century timescales. A wide variety of alternative methods to EOFs exist, but fitness-for-purpose must be evaluated. Additionally, illustrations of alternative methods and examples of proper use are provided. Alternative methods fit into three categories: EOF variants, linear methods, and multilinear methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System Value Model of a Launch Vehicle

System value provides a mathematical representation of stakeholder’s preferences for the system. System value represents the utility that the system provides to the stakeholders. For a launch vehicle, important values are revenue generated through successful payloads, mission reliability, and the ability to accommodate payloads without modification to the payload instruments or spacecraft bus. This paper considers the value provided by a heavy lift launch vehicle to the satellite industry and to human exploration. An estimate is developed for a generic launch vehicle value in terms of impact to the Gross Domestic Product. Thermo-economics are applied in the calculation of system value. Mission reliability considers both successful delivery and on time delivery (i.e., operational availability). Payload accommodation considers mainly the diameter of the payload fairing for various types of missions.

Barth, Andrew↗

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

Propulsion system mathematical model for a lift/cruise fan V/STOL aircraft

A propulsion system mathematical model is documented that allows calculation of internal engine parameters during transient operation. A non-realtime digital computer simulation of the model is presented. It is used to investigate thrust response and modulation requirements as well as the impact of duty cycle on engine life and design criteria. Comparison of simulation results with steady-state cycle deck calculations showed good agreement. The model was developed for a specific 3-fan subsonic V/STOL aircraft application, but it can be adapted for use with any similar lift/cruise V/STOL configuration.

Cole, G. L.↗

System, method, and computer program for creating an internal conforming structure

A system for creating an internal formation of a tubular structure having an inner surface via additive manufacturing. The system broadly includes a computer modeling system and an additive manufacturing system. The computer modeling system may include a processor for generating a lattice cellular component via computer-aided design software according to inputs received from a user. The processor may also generate an internal formation lattice structure based on the lattice cellular component and modify the lattice structure to follow and/or conform to the curvature of the inner surface of the outer wall of the tubular structure. The additive manufacturing system may be configured to produce the lattice structure and the tubular structure via additive manufacturing material deposited layer by layer according to the lattice structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗

Using Board Games as Subject Matter for Developing Expertise in Model-Based Systems Engineering

As more organizations transition from traditional document-centric systems engineering to a model-based approach, many are challenged to train their staff in new languages, tools, and methodologies, and manage the expectations of stakeholders and their expected model outcomes. In particular, challenges associated with learning a new modeling language and developing skills in the 'art' of modeling present organizations with formidable obstacles to realizing this transition. This paper hypothesizes that systems engineers may more readily learn how to correctly model with SysML, and develop intuition about the art of modeling and using patterns, if their learning references a commonly and thoroughly-understood subject matter, such as a board game. This paper presents a case for the use of board games as subject matter for new modelers, demonstrates the concept with a sample model of Hasbro's popular board game, Monopoly, and discusses the limitations of this approach and potential adaptations that may broaden the applicability of the learned skills to projects.

Systems Engineering↗

Development of an 8-cm engineering model thruster system

Electric propulsion has been shown to offer major advantages over the techniques currently employed for the control of earth satellites. For a user to realize these advantages, however, requires the availability of a proven, operationally flight-ready propulsion system. Currently an Engineering Model of an 8-cm ion thruster propulsion system is under development. The system includes the thruster unit with its associated reservoir, thruster gimbaling subsystem, and power processing unit. This paper describes the EM System with special emphasis on hardware design and system performance.

Herron, B. G.↗

What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enabler 1 and 2 engine system design modeling and comparisons

Viewgraphs on Enabler 1 and 2 engine system design modeling and comparisons are presented. The objective of this research was to define a near-term solid-core nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) engine system scaling database. A unified set of performance, weight, and size scaling data are identified and documented. Results should be useful to meet initial mission and concept design study requirements.

Pelaccio, Dennis G.↗