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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Update of ASHRAE Standard 140 Section 5.2 and Related Sections (BESTEST Building Thermal Fabric Test Cases)

This report documents new work intended to update the current building thermal fabric software-to-software comparative test specifications and example results of ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140-2017, Sections 5.2.1, 5.2.2, 5.2.3, and related supporting sections. The Building Energy Simulation Test and Diagnostic Method (BESTEST) test specification and example results that provide the basis for these Standard 140 sections were originally published in 1995. The state of the art in building energy simulation modeling has advanced since then. Additionally, comments on the test specification over the years highlighted ambiguities, further necessitating the update to the original work. This new work was conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with a working group of international experts associated with the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standing Standard Project Committee (SSPC) 140. SSPC 140 is responsible for ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140. The new work, presented in this report, defined the test cases and specifications such that building energy simulation programs with time steps of one hour or less can perform the tests. Revisions to the test specification and update of example results follow the vetting process of iterative field trials established for previous BESTEST work that has been adapted for ASHRAE Standard 140.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Climatic Controls on Soil Carbon Accumulation and Loss in a Dryland Ecosystems

Arid and semiarid ecosystems drive year-to-year variability in the strength of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink, yet there is uncertainty about how soil C gains and losses contribute to this variation. For this work, to address this knowledge gap, we embedded C-depleted soil mesocosms, containing litter or biocrust C inputs, within an in situ dryland ecosystem warming experiment. Over the course of one year, changes in microbial biomass and total soil organic C pools were monitored alongside hourly measurements of soil CO 2 flux. We also developed a biogeochemical model to explore the mechanisms that gave rise to observed soil C dynamics. Field data and model simulations demonstrated that water exerted much stronger control on soil biogeochemistry than temperature, with precipitation events triggering large CO 2 pulses and transport of litter- and biocrust-derived C into the soil profile. We expected leaching of organic matter would result in steady accumulation of C within the mineral soil over time. Instead, the size of the total organic C pool fluctuated throughout the year, largely in response to microbial growth: increases in the size of microbial biomass were negatively correlated with the quantity of C residing in the top 2 cm, where most biogeochemical changes were observed. Our data and models suggest that microbial responses to precipitation events trigger rapid metabolism of dissolved organic C inputs, which strongly limit accumulation of autotroph-derived C belowground. Accordingly, changes in the magnitude and/or frequency of precipitation events in this dryland ecosystem could have profound impacts on the strength of the soil C sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nek5000 developments in support of industry and the NRC

This year, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation program (NEAMS) thermal-hydraulics verification and validation (V&V) work has focused in three areas of Nek5000 V&V-driven development. First, in a close collaborative effort with the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff, we have continued V&V efforts for the HYMERES-2 project using the OECD/NEA sponsored testing in the PSI PANDA facility. This year’s focus of ANL-NRC collaboration involves Nek5000 setups and validation for a range of problems relevant to and including the HYMERES-2 benchmark from PSI. The primary outcome of this year efforts is a more efficient geometry and inlet modeling simplification after a careful sensitivity study of the inlet profiles and pipe geometries. The resulting modeling choice of a short recycling/fully-developed turbulent inlet is within the experimental uncertainty estimate. This finding simplifies the next step of the cross-V&V HYMERES-2 project. In addition, the ANL team continue to provide assistance to the NRC staff in the form of Nek5000 application support in general and on the use of the HPC platforms of ALCF and INL in particular. This supports the NRC’s assessment of Nek5000 for use with the NRC Blue CRAB code suite. Second, we have implemented and tested more robust model of URANS, namely the k – τ model, a variant of the k-ω model, along with other improvements to RANS Nek5000 modeling in general. Because of its demonstrated robustness and stability, the k – τ model is the only RANS model that has been implemented in the new GPU version of the Nek5000 code, nekRS. Lastly, we report the initial implementation of Jacobian-free Newton Krylov approach to the direct Newton method for steady fluid solvers aimed at acceleration of RANS modeling and at IC improvement for LES campaigns. Also leveraging the Exascale Computing Project (ECP) ANL/CEED & SMR team’s software development effort to support NEAMS problems at large scale of the advanced computing architectures, NekRS, a GPU variant of Nek5000, built on top of kernels from libParanumal using OCCA for portability, has been successfully run on the full system of Summit (4608 nodes, 27648 GPUs).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Predicting ductility of Mg/SiCp nanocomposite under multiaxial loading conditions based on unit cell modeling

This article presents an investigation on the ductility of Mg/SiCp under nine different multiaxial loading conditions based on a unit cell (or called representative volumetric element, RVE) finite element model. The constitutive relationship of magnesium matrix is characterized by a model combined Lode angle dependent plasticity model with the CPB06 plasticity model, which is able to describe the tension-compression asymmetry in magnesium matrix. The debonding of the matrix-particle interface and matrix fracture are considered by the modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) fracture model. Simulation results show that the interface debonding and subsequent matrix fracture are responsible for the ductility and fracture of nanocomposite. The computational results with parametric studies are compared and well correlated with experimental data, and it finally gives a stress-based full fracture locus of Mg/SiCp nanocomposite.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Influence of the Instantaneous Collapse of Tailings Pond on Downstream Facilities

To evaluate the evolutionary processes guiding the formation of the tailings‐water mixtures produced by the instantaneous collapse of tailings ponds and the influence of these on downstream facilities, a 2D simulation model with reasonable boundary and working conditions derived from actual engineering practice was built in this study, and the relationship between dam‐break elevation and impact on downstream facilities was also analyzed to determine the relevant mechanism of influence. Computational results indicated that lowering the dam‐break elevation caused the maximum velocity and flooding depth, along with the flooded area at monitoring points, to gradually increase. The occurrence times of maximum velocity and flooding depth were also gradually moved forward as the breaking elevation was reduced; this effect is directly related to the increase in the total potential energy at the lower break elevations. Further simulations of sand‐prevent dams with different heights located downstream from a tailings pond were carried out to identify methods for mitigating the impact of dam failure. The results revealed that increasing the height of the sand‐prevent dam reduced the production of tailings mixtures. Based on the results, the construction of a sand‐prevent dam with a crest elevation equal to that of the starter dam was recommended.

Wang, Sha (ORCID:0000000324875445)↗

Compounding effects of Lake and urbanization on summer precipitation in the Greater Chicago area

Here, this study explores the impacts of Lake Michigan and Chicago's urbanization on precipitation patterns over the Greater Chicago Area, using 22 years of observational data and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations focused on an early summer rain event. Observational analysis reveals that urban areas consistently experience more precipitation than the adjacent southern Lake Michigan region throughout the year, particularly before 2015. However, this disparity has narrowed since 2016 due to a more rapid increase in heavy precipitation over the lake compared to urban areas. Specifically, lake precipitation has risen by 25 mm per year, compared to 15 mm per year over urban areas. Additionally, the number of days with precipitation exceeding 5 mm per day has been rising at a rate of 1.34 days per year over the lake and 0.84 days per year over urban areas. Modeling experiments reveal that both urbanization and lake effects, including lake breezes, enhance precipitation over urban areas, primarily through convergence induced by interactions between land and lake breezes. In contrast, these same factors suppress precipitation over the lake. The suppression results from Lake Michigan's stable environment, characterized by cooler surface temperatures, limited evaporation in early summer, and a high-pressure anomaly over the lake driven by urban heating, which creates upward motion over urban areas and downward motion over the lake, further influencing precipitation patterns.

Coastal urban↗

Residual Stress Modeling and Advanced Diffraction Measurements of 347H Steel Weldments

The 347H stainless steel is a primary high-temperature material for many energy and power generation industries. Stress relief cracking (SRC) has been a particular concern in welding of this material. The residual stress induced by welding and its evolution during post-welding heat treatment (PWHT) and subsequent operating and service conditions is one of the primary factors contributing to SRC. The lifetime of welded structure components is also controlled by the precipitation kinetics that accompanies PWHT, stress relaxation process, and long-term aging and complex synergistic factors. Various theories have been proposed in the past to explain SRC. However, a widely accepted approach to predicting the entire damage evolution and the resulting performance reduction is still lacking. This study is to demonstrate a reliable solution for two critical issues that affect the predictions. First, the residual stress distribution obtained from both simulation and neutron diffraction is compared, which increases the accuracy of mechanical analysis simulation model and therefore builds a solid basis for the lifetime prediction model. Second, the generation, evolution, and annihilation of precipitates are monitored by the synchrotron diffraction experiment. Preliminary results demonstrate the critical importance of precipitation kinetics on the residual stress distribution/redistribution during heat treatments.

Yang, Yi↗

Modeling framework for evaluating the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on hydrologic exchange fluxes and residence time for a large-scale river section over a long-term period

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEF) at the river and subsurface interface and their residence times (RT) in subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems. In this study, a modeling framework is developed for coupling the three-dimensional (3D) multi-phase surface, subsurface flow transport, and numerical tracer model for RT in a large-scale river section over a long period. The framework is utilized to evaluate the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on HEFs and RT for a 30 km section of the Columbia River in Washington State over a three-year period. Based on comparisons between model simulations with and without considering hydrodynamic pressure, we found that hydrodynamic pressure increases the net HEFs by 7% with river gaining water from the subsurface domain, and leads to slight reduction of RT.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Geologic Constraints on the Timing of Late Holocene Ice Thickening in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

Abstract Constraining past West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) change helps validate numerical models simulating future ice sheet dynamics. Following rapid deglaciation during the mid‐Holocene, ice near Thwaites Glacier was ∼35 m thinner than present; however, the timing of ice regrowth to its present configuration remains unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we present cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages of cobbles from the surface of a moraine situated between Thwaites and Pope glaciers. We infer that the moraine formed and stabilized in the Late Holocene (∼1.4 ka) when a small glacier thickened. We also present a novel reconstruction of WAIS volume constrained by sea‐level data, which demonstrates that moraine formation coincided with a large‐scale WAIS readvance. Our new geologic constraints will help inform models of the solid Earth response to surface mass loading, improving our understanding of ice sheet dynamics in a vulnerable part of WAIS.

Nichols, Keir A. [Imperial College London London U↗

Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition in the Amazon (Final Report)

The frequent and extensive deep cloud formations over the Amazon Basin provide a vast area of atmospheric heating in the Tropics, forcing large-scale global circulations on daily to secular time scales. Motivated by the importance of these systems to the global climate system and the well-documented seasonal cycle in rainfall over the Amazon Basin, this study focused on improving understanding of the processes governing these systems on seasonal time scales and their impact on the typical growth of convection from early afternoon through evening, termed the shallow-to-deep transition. This study is based on observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) near Manacapuru, Brazil collected during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015, together with total column water vapor (CWV) and surface meteorological observations from a dense Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network within 50 km of the AMF site provided by the CHUVA Program collected in coordination with the GOAmazon campaign. The specific objectives of this study were to address the following questions: 1) What environmental conditions support the shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Central Amazon? 2) How does the relative importance of these conditions compare during the wet and dry seasons? 3) How are these conditions modulated by basin-scale transient forcing? 4) How well are these processes captured by regional model simulations convective resolving scale? Our main hypothesis was that intra-seasonal atmospheric disturbances were a primary driver of rainfall during the wet season in the Central Amazon, while localized surface heating of the land was the primary driver of enhanced rainfall during the dry season. Overall, our findings supported our hypothesis, with the convectively active phase of atmospheric Kelvin waves strongly favoring the development of larger, more organized rain systems during the wet season, while localized isolated deep convection dominated the types of rain events seen during the dry season. These results have implications for the predictability of rainfall over the Central Amazon and for its representation in climate and weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Muon Energy Estimation Using a Detailed Model of Multiple Coulomb Scattering in the MicroBooNE LArTPC

We present an improved technique for estimating a muon's energy by measuring the deflections along its path inside the MicroBooNE detector from multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). This approach implements several innovations that better capture detector non-idealizations compared to previous MCS-based muon energy estimators. As a result, it achieves improved resolution, reduced bias, and better data-model agreement. Using model simulation, for fully contained events the estimated bias is within 1\% and the estimated resolution narrows from 10\% to 4.3\% as muon energy increases from 0.1\,GeV to 2\,GeV. For events with particles exiting the detector volume, at least a meter of reconstructed muon track, and a muon energy below 2\,GeV, the estimated bias is less than 2\% and the estimated resolution varies from 7\% to 17\% over muon energy. These demonstrate significant improvements over the performance of previous work using an MCS-based energy estimator at MicroBooNE~\cite{mcs_2017}, which exhibited approximately twice worse resolution and a bias of 20\% over the same energy region. Data-model goodness-of-fit studies are used to validate the estimator's performance on data, showing good agreement within model uncertainties.

Cooper-Troendle, London [U. Pittsburgh (main); Fer↗

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Shallow Cloud Populations on Transitions to Deep Convection in the Amazon

Abstract In this study, a pair of convection-permitting (2-km grid spacing), month-long, wet-season Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations with and without the eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme are performed for a portion of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) 2014/15 field campaign period. EDMF produces an ensemble of subgrid-scale convective plumes that evolve in response to the boundary layer meteorological conditions and can develop into shallow clouds. The objective of this study is to determine how different treatments of shallow cumulus clouds (i.e., with and without EDMF) impact the total cloud population and precipitation across the Amazonian rain forest, with emphasis on impacts on the likelihood of shallow-to-deep convection transitions. Results indicate that the large-scale synoptic conditions in the EDMF and control simulations are nearly identical; however, on the local scale their rainfall patterns diverge drastically and the biases decrease in EDMF. The EDMF scheme significantly increases the frequency of shallow clouds, but the frequencies of deep clouds are similar between the simulations. Deep convective clouds are tracked using a cloud-tracking algorithm to examine the impact of shallow cumulus on the surrounding ambient environment where deep convective clouds initiate. Results suggest that a rapid increase of low-level cloudiness acts to cool and moisten the low to midtroposphere during the day, favoring the transition to deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility of using reactive silicate particles with temperature-responsive coatings to enhance the security of geologic carbon storage

The large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage will require minimizing the risk of CO 2 leakage. Here we report on a novel strategy to seal leakage pathways by injecting functionalized reactive calcium silicate (CaSiO 3 ) particles. The particles consist of a mineral silicate core within a temperature-sensitive Poly(N,N-dimethylaminoethyl methacrylate) coating that limits contact between the core and the surrounding CO 2 (aq) above a switching temperature making them relatively unreactive deep in the subsurface. If the CO 2 leaks to shallower depths and cooler temperatures, the coatings would extend and enable the silicate core to react with CO 2(aq) to form solid carbonate precipitates that reduce the permeability of the fracture or flow path. A combined laboratory- and simulation-based investigation was conducted to explore key early-stage research questions related to the feasibility of this leakage management strategy. Sand columns were injected with either coated or uncoated CaSiO 3 particles and the permeability was measured before and after exposure to CO 2 . Experiments were conducted at 35 °C and 70 °C, a range that spans the switching temperature for the coatings. Results show that at the cooler temperature the coating effectively enabled reaction and permeability reduction. At higher temperatures, the coated particles limited mineral carbonation and the permeability decrease was minimal compared to columns with uncoated particles. Here, the morphology and location of the precipitates provides insight about permeability evolution. Model simulations of 2D radial particle transport from an injection point provided insight into the effects of particle size, coating properties, and concentrations of particles in several representative rock formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A robust aerosol impact on clouds along the subtropical to tropical transition

Marine clouds undergo a transition from subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) to shallow cumulus (Cu) and eventually to deep convective (DC) systems as air masses advect from the subtropics towards the deep tropics. How aerosols modulate this Lagrangian cloud evolution remains largely uncertain. Here we use both 5 years of satellite observations mapped along 8 d Lagrangian trajectories and complementary large-eddy simulations from 9 initiation locations across the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Pacific, and Southeast Atlantic. This Lagrangian framework allows us to quantify the aerosol effect and its co-variability with meteorological conditions on cloud microphysics, macrophysics, and top-of-atmosphere radiation through the full Sc-Cu-DC transition. We show that increasing aerosol concentrations leads to deeper and more reflective clouds throughout this cloud transition. Examining the thermodynamic evolution along the trajectory indicates a well-known trend: enhanced moistening near the boundary-layer top and lower free troposphere under polluted conditions, suggesting that part of the co-variability between aerosol and meteorological conditions may be internally driven. The agreement between model simulations and satellite data alongside the multi-basin coherence of the results indicates that aerosols systematically amplify cloud depth and reflectivity during the subtropical–to–tropical cloud transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure of an Atmospheric River over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Australia-Tasmania and the Southern Ocean during the Austral summer on 28-29 January 2018 during the SOCRATES campaign is analyzed using both a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream-V dropsonde measurements and GPM radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and mid-latitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a mid-latitude frontal system that extended to 60°S over the Southern Ocean reaching the associated low pressure system 850 km off the east coast of Antarctica – effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from > 70% over the Australian continent, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 10% poleward of 60°S. Precipitation in the AR conformed to a seeder-feeder model, the seeder precipitation forming primarily from tropical sourced moisture above the altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the feeder precipitation sourced from mid-latitude sourced moisture below the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m-1s-1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January 29, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world’s largest river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures in Austral summer.

Rauber, Robert M.↗