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DOE OSTI2024

Estimated impacts of forest restoration scenarios on smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers in California

Abstract As wildfires continue to worsen across western United States, forest managers are increasingly employing prescribed burns as a way to reduce excess fuels and future wildfire risk. While the ecological benefits of these fuel treatments are clear, little is known about the smoke exposure tradeoffs of using prescribed burns to mitigate wildfires, particularly among at-risk populations. Outdoor agricultural workers are a population at increased risk of smoke exposure because of their time spent outside and the physical demands of their work. Here, we assess the smoke exposure impacts among outdoor agricultural workers resulting from the implementation of six forest management scenarios proposed for a landscape in the Central Sierra, California. We leverage emissions estimates from LANDIS-II to model daily PM 2.5 concentrations with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) and link those to agricultural employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find a u-shaped result, in that moderate amounts of prescribed burning result in the greatest reduction in total smoke exposure among outdoor agricultural workers, particularly during months of peak agricultural activity due to wildfire-specific smoke reductions. The reduction in total smoke exposure, relative to scenarios with the least amount of management, decreases as more prescribed burning is applied to the landscape due to the contributions of the fuel treatments themselves to overall smoke burden. The results of this analysis may contribute to preparedness efforts aimed at reducing smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers, while also informing forest management planning for this specific landscape.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Beyond mass: detecting secondary halo properties with galaxy-galaxy lensing

ABSTRACT Secondary halo properties beyond mass, such as the mass accretion rate (MAR), concentration, and the half mass scale, are essential in understanding the formation of large-scale structure and dark matter haloes. In this paper, we study the impact of secondary halo properties on the galaxy-galaxy lensing observable, ΔΣ. We build an emulator trained on N-body simulations to model ΔΣ and quantify the impact of different secondary parameters on the ΔΣ profile. We focus on the impact of MAR on ΔΣ. We show that a 3σ detection of variations in MAR at fixed halo mass could be achieved with the Hyper Suprime Cam survey assuming no baryonic effects and a proxy for MAR with scatter <1.5. We show that the full radial profile of ΔΣ depends on secondary properties at fixed halo mass. Consequently, an emulator that can perform full shape fitting yields better than two times improvement upon the constraints on MAR than only using the outer part of the halo. Finally, we highlight that miscentring and MAR impact the radial profile of ΔΣ in a similar fashion, implying that miscentring and MAR need to be modelled jointly for unbiased estimates of both effects. We show that present-day lensing data sets have the statistical capability to place constraints on halo MAR within our assumptions. Our analysis opens up new possibilities for observationally measuring the assembly history of the dark matter haloes that host galaxies and clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the deformation mechanisms in Ni-based superalloys with using crystal plasticity finite element method

Nl-based superalloy is considered as a good candidate due to its excellent resistance to elevated temperature deformation for long term period application. Understanding the deformation and failure mechanisms of Ni-Based superalloys is very helpful for providing design guidelines for processing Ni-based superalloys. Experimental characterization indicates that the deformation mechanisms of Ni based superalloy is strongly microstructure dependent. Besides, damage transform from the void nucleation to the macro cracks by voids growth leading to the failure of the Ni-based superalloys are also showing strong microstructure sensitivity. Therefore, this work focuses on the prediction and comprehension of the deformation and void growth behavior in Ni based superalloy at different working conditions via crystal plasticity finite element modeling and simulation. Physically based crystal plasticity frameworks were developed for newly Ni- based superalloy Haynes 282. It was found that dislocation shearing through the precipitates were acting as the main contributor to the strength of Haynes 282 at room temperature and 815°C. Our analysis of the creeping behavior of Haynes 282 exhibited that resistance of general climb replaced by the resistance induced by the deposited climb dislocation density. In addition, in the study of void growth behavior, our simulation results demonstrated that as the main loading axis perpendicular to the grain boundary (GB), voids grow more slowly on tilt GBs in bicrystals than those in single and bicrystals with twist GBs. And tilt GBs would promote the void grow into irregular shape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simulating competition in the US bioeconomy to produce hard‐to‐electrify transportation fuels using limited biomass resources

This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno-economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost-optimized scenarios, while low-carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas-minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stimuli-responsive petroleum cement composite with giant expansion and enhanced mechanical properties

Shrinkage, as an inherent property of cement during the curing process, has been a concern in the oil & gas industry for centuries. Therefore, expansive cement has been studied for many decades, primarily through incorporation of expansive additives. Nevertheless, traditional expansive additives are not able to achieve the required expansive ratio or maintain a good mechanical property for the cement composite at extreme underground condition. Accordingly, a new generation of expansive additive, which not only has the required expansion, but also work at the downhole high temperature and high pressure environment, and maintain or even enhance the mechanical property, is highly desired. In this work, a high enthalpy storage shape memory polymer (SMP) as a new class of expansive additive is investigated. It is found that the cement composite achieves 1.4% circumferential expansion by only 6% by weight of SMP additives. The compressive strength and flexural strength are also enhanced at the same time, which is hardly achievable by other expansive additives with the same concertation. Good pumpability is also proved by rheological study. The mechanism controlling the enhanced properties is reveled through morphological study and element mapping analysis at the SMP/cement interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

An analytical method for identifying synergies between behind-the-meter battery and thermal energy storage

Electric utilities build generation capacity to meet the highest demand period, and they often pass on the costs associated with these peaking generators to building owners through demand charges. Building owners can minimize these demand charges by shifting energy use away from peak periods with behind-the-meter storage. This storage can include batteries, which can directly shift the metered load, or thermal energy storage, which can shift thermal-driven electric loads like air conditioning. However, there is a lack of research on how best to combine battery and thermal energy storage. In this study, we develop an analytical sizing method to calculate the potential demand reduction and annualized cost savings for different combinations of thermal and battery energy storage sizes. We show that adding batteries to a thermal energy storage system can increase the total system's load shaving potential. This is particularly true when the building has onsite photovoltaic generation or electric vehicle charging, which add significant variability to the load shape. We also show that for a given total storage size, selecting a higher fraction of thermal energy storage can significantly lower the cycling of the battery, and therefore extend the battery life. This, combined with the expected lower first cost of thermal energy storage materials compared to batteries, shows that hybrid energy storage systems can outperform a standalone battery or standalone thermal storage system. Assuming the thermal storage has a capital cost 6x lower than the battery, our analysis shows that the optimal system is 71% thermal energy storage and 29% battery energy storage for a scenario with electric vehicle charging. The annualized cost savings for this system are $48.6 k/yr, whereas an equivalently sized standalone thermal energy storage system would provide annualized cost savings of $28.5 k/yr and a standalone battery would lead to savings of $8.72 k/yr. The hybrid system also reduces battery cycling by 52% compared to a standalone battery, extending battery lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Characteristic Droplet Size Distributions in Large Eddy Simulations of Stratocumulus Clouds

Cloud processes relevant to radiative and precipitation properties depend on the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution. Recent holographic observations revealed that cloud droplet populations do not have the same size distribution shapes throughout but form regions of characteristic distributions with similar microphysical properties. We investigate the existence and properties of these characteristic distributions within Large‐Eddy Simulations of stratocumulus clouds using Lagrangian and bin microphysics schemes. Distribution types are identified, revealing localized characteristic distributions that vary on the scale of the largest convective cell for simulations with bin microphysics. The results from the Lagrangian microphysics scheme hint at similar behavior. Compared to observations, the simulated clouds are much more uniform. Analysis of the LES results suggests a connection to the local entrainment rate, so the poorly resolved entrainment interface in LES may be a cause of the uniformity. The uniformity of the large‐scale forcing could also be a factor.

cloud droplet size distributions↗

DOE OSTI2023

First measurement of the forward rapidity gap distribution in pPb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 8.16 TeV

For the first time at LHC energies, the forward rapidity gap spectra from proton-lead collisions for both proton and lead dissociation processes are presented. The analysis is performed over 10.4 units of pseudorapidity at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 8.16 TeV , almost 300 times higher than in previous measurements of diffractive production in proton-nucleus collisions. For lead dissociation processes, which correspond to the pomeron-lead event topology, the EPOS-LHC generator predictions are a factor of 2 below the data, but the model gives a reasonable description of the rapidity gap spectrum shape. For the pomeron-proton topology, the EPOS-LHC , QGSJET II , and HIJING predictions are all at least a factor of 5 lower than the data. The latter effect might be explained by a significant contribution of ultraperipheral photoproduction events mimicking the signature of diffractive processes. These data may be of significant help in understanding the high energy limit of quantum chromodynamics and for modeling cosmic ray air showers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Study of e + e − → π + π − π 0 at s from 2.00 to 3.08 GeV at BESIII

With the data samples taken at center-of-mass energies from 2.00 to 3.08 GeV with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, a partial wave analysis on the e + e − → π + π − π 0 process is performed. The Born cross sections for e + e − → π + π − π 0 and its intermediate processes e + e − → ρ π and ρ ( 1450 ) π are measured as functions of s . The results for e + e − → π + π − π 0 are consistent with previous results measured with the initial state radiation method within one standard deviation, and improve the uncertainty by a factor of ten. By fitting the line shapes of the Born cross sections for the e + e − → ρ π and e + e − → ρ ( 1450 ) π , a structure with mass M = 2119 ± 11 ± 15 MeV / c 2 and width Γ = 69 ± 30 ± 5 MeV is observed with a significance of 5.9 σ , where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones are systematic. This structure can be interpreted as an excited ω state. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on January 22, 2019, leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area were studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system which developed over the Java Sea. Low-Level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92 % of December-January-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, which the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is eight times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

Latos, Beata↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the Contribution of Microbial Taxa and Organic Matter Molecular Formulas to Ecological Assembly

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the assembly of communities has long been the goal of many ecological studies. While several studies have evaluated community wide ecological assembly, fewer have focused on investigating the impacts of individual members within a community or assemblage on ecological assembly. Here, we adapted a previous null model β-nearest taxon index (βNTI) to measure the contribution of individual features within an ecological community to overall assembly. This new metric, called feature-level βNTI (βNTI feat ), enables researchers to determine whether ecological features (e.g., individual microbial taxa) contribute to divergence, convergence, or have insignificant impacts across spatiotemporally resolved metacommunities or meta-assemblages. Using βNTI feat , we revealed that unclassified microbial lineages often contributed to community divergence while diverse groups (e.g., Crenarchaeota, Alphaproteobacteria, and Gammaproteobacteria) contributed to convergence. We also demonstrate that βNTI feat can be extended to other ecological assemblages such as organic molecules comprising organic matter (OM) pools. OM had more inconsistent trends compared to the microbial community though CHO-containing molecular formulas often contributed to convergence, while nitrogen and phosphorus-containing formulas contributed to both convergence and divergence. A network analysis was used to relate βNTI feat values from the putatively active microbial community and the OM assemblage and examine potentially common contributions to ecological assembly across different communities/assemblages. This analysis revealed that P-containing formulas often contributed to convergence/divergence separately from other ecological features and N-containing formulas often contributed to assembly in coordination with microorganisms. Additionally, members of Family Geobacteraceae were often observed to contribute to convergence/divergence in conjunction with both N- and P-containing formulas, suggesting a coordinated ecological role for family members and the nitrogen/phosphorus cycle. Overall, we show that βNTI feat offers opportunities to investigate the community or assemblage members, which shape the phylogenetic or functional landscape, and demonstrate the potential to evaluate potential points of coordination across various community types.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integral analysis of the effect of material dimension and composition on tokamak neutronics *

Abstract The neutronics performance of a tokamak has been identified as an important factor in designing a fusion power plant. The design of the tokamak should not only meet operational parameters such as sufficient tritium breeding, but also safety parameters such as low structural material activation. This paper investigates the impacts of the neutronics metrics for the ARC-class tokamak, a compact tokamak with an immersion blanket, by perturbing the first five layers of structural material—first wall, inner vacuum vessel, coolant salt channel, neutron multiplier, and outer vacuum vessel. The goal of this work is to provide insight into shaping and scaling the flux on each layer to obtain optimized operational and safety metrics through quantification of the responses from each perturbation. Results show that increased first wall thickness can increase the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) in specific configurations with high 6 Li enrichments and that vacuum vessels decrease TBR for low- 6 Li enrichment configurations. It was also found that the neutron multiplier can either increase or decrease TBR depending on the configuration. The response of metrics to the change in layer thickness and enrichment also varies depending on the vacuum vessel material. The integral impacts of 6 Li enrichment, layer thicknesses, and vacuum vessel material choice are investigated and presented in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Experimental and Computational Analysis of NEAMS Pebble Bed Reactors

The Advanced High-Temperature Pebble Bed Reactor concept leverages a particle-based fuel format consisting of discrete spherical graphite pebbles arrayed in a packed bed architecture. Thermal regulation achieved via flow of gas (e.g., helium) or liquid (e.g., molten salt) coolants through the void spaces between pebbles in the bed (characteristic pebble diameters: ~ 6 cm, gas cooled; ~ 3 cm, liquid cooled). This design is of interest owing to inherent advantages including passive safety features and highly efficient heat transfer characteristics that enable high power densities to be achieved. Fully leveraging these advantages requires a fundamental understanding of the complex coolant flow structure within the pebble-shaped fuel bed. Unfortunately, complexities associated with non-invasively probing the micro-scale flow phenomena within the complex network of void spaces between pebbles have hindered efforts to characterize the underlying transport phenomena. Without this fundamental foundation, it becomes challenging to rationally construct macroscopic transport models based upon volume averages of micro-scale parameters that accurately capture the observed flow behavior. Consequently, this lack of fundamental knowledge has limited previous work to coarse comparisons between theory and extremely limited experimental data. Moreover, these comparisons have been made only in terms of integral or macroscopic results. Therefore, multipoint measurements with a high level of spatial and temporal resolution are critically needed to fully map the complex flow patterns and to provide data at high spatial density to permit accurate volume averaging in the pebble bed. For this project, we performed a coordinated experimental and computational effort to quantitatively map the full-field velocity and temperature fields in the interstitial spaces within the pebble bed. The major accomplishments of this project included the important knowledge acquired for the flow mixing and heat transfer in the interstitial pore scales, the effects of flow mixing in the near-wall and far-wall regions, and the by-pass flows of pebble bed systems. The produced high-resolution experimental data (not broadly available in existing literature) were then used for the numerical studies enabling the refinement and validation of standard simulation tools (Nek5000).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Method for Rapid Modeling of Distortion in Laser Powder Bed Fusion Metal Additive Manufacturing Parts

The simulation and modeling of part-level distortion and residual stress in diverse metal additive manufacturing (AM) geometries has great potential to enable the rapid adoption of this technology in engineering design. Moreover, the use of additive manufacturing component libraries (CLs) offer a computationally efficient means of quantifying these part-level defects resultant from AM processing. We report on how the individual simulations of simple shapes, potential entries in a CL, can be superimposed to provide an indication of distortion and residual stresses in complex geometries. Laser powder bed fusion AM was used to construct test geometries of varied shapes and their combinations in the form of CLs in an effort to characterize location-dependent and feature-dependent distortion distributions. Blue light scanning was used to experimentally measure 3D distortions in order to investigate the interaction between the component shapes and local boundary conditions. Overall, part-level distortions were highly dependent on test component geometry, local boundary conditions, and shape combination. Commercial finite element software was used to verify experimental trends and to make predictions of distortion. The use of CLs resulted in over 20 times savings in computational cost while reproducing overall trends in distortion for test geometry assemblies. Therefore, it is anticipated that the use of CLs for L-PBF AM geometries has demonstrated potential to facilitate efficient simulations of full component AM assemblies, thereby reducing the need for costly trial-and-error-type experimental analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of cross-section uncertainties on supernova neutrino spectral parameter fitting in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

A primary goal of the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is to measure the 𝒪⁡(10) MeV neutrinos produced by a Galactic core-collapse supernova if one should occur during the lifetime of the experiment. The liquid-argon-based detectors planned for DUNE are expected to be uniquely sensitive to the 𝜈 𝑒 component of the supernova flux, enabling a wide variety of physics and astrophysics measurements. A key requirement for a correct interpretation of these measurements is a good understanding of the energy-dependent total cross section 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) for charged-current 𝜈 𝑒 absorption on argon. In the context of a simulated extraction of supernova 𝜈 𝑒 spectral parameters from a toy analysis, we investigate the impact of 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) modeling uncertainties on DUNE’s supernova neutrino physics sensitivity for the first time. We find that the currently large theoretical uncertainties on 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) must be substantially reduced before the 𝜈𝑒 flux parameters can be extracted reliably; in the absence of external constraints, a measurement of the integrated neutrino luminosity with less than 10% bias with DUNE requires 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) to be known to about 5%. The neutrino spectral shape parameters can be known to better than 10% for a 20% uncertainty on the cross-section scale, although they will be sensitive to uncertainties on the shape of 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ). A direct measurement of low-energy 𝜈𝑒-argon scattering would be invaluable for improving the theoretical precision to the needed level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗