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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

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NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗

NASA NTRS2016

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synthesis of Amino Acid Precursors with Organic Solids in Planetesimals with Liquid Water

Amino acids are important ingredients of life that would have been delivered to Earth by extraterrestrial sources, e.g., comets and meteorites. Amino acids are found in aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrites in good part in the form of precursors that release amino acids after acid hydrolysis. Meanwhile, most of the organic carbon (greater than 70 weight %) in carbonaceous chondrites exists in the form of solvent insoluble organic matter (IOM) with complex macromolecular structures. Complex macromolecular organic matter can be produced by either photolysis of interstellar ices or aqueous chemistry in planetesimals. We focused on the synthesis of amino acids during aqueous alteration, and demonstrated one-pot synthesis of a complex suite of amino acids simultaneously with IOM via hydrothermal experiments simulating the aqueous processing

Kebukawa, Y↗

NASA NTRS2017

Angular Normalization of GOME-2 Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Observation as a Better Proxy of Vegetation Productivity

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been regarded as a promising proxy for gross primary productivity (GPP) over land. Considerable uncertainties in GPP estimation using remotely sensed SIF exist due to variations in the Sun-satellite view observation geometry that could induce unwanted variations in SIF observation. In this study, we normalize the far-red Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 SIF observations on sunny days to hot spot direction (SIF(h)) to represent sunlit leaves and compute a weighted sum of SIF (SIF(t)) from sunlit and shaded leaves to represent the canopy. We found that SIF(h) is better correlated with sunlit GPP simulated by a process-based ecosystem model and SIF(t) is better correlated with the simulated total GPP than the original SIF observations. The coefficient of determination (R(exp 2)) are increased by 0.04 +/- 0.03, and 0.07 +/- 0.04 on a global average using SIF(h) and SIF(t), respectively. The most significant increases of the R(exp 2) (0.09 +/- 0.04 for SIF(t) and 0.05 +/- 0.03 for SIF(h)) appear in deciduous broadleaf forests.

Australia↗

NASA NTRS2018

Spatial Variations in Crop Growing Seasons Pivotal to Reproduce Global Fluctuations in Maize and Wheat Yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.

Maize↗

NASA NTRS2018

Computational Aerothermodynamic Environments for the Mars 2020 Entry Capsule

The simulation tools and processes used to generate aerothermodynamic environment definitions for the Mars 2020 entry capsule are presented. The Mars 2020 capsule leverages the heritage Mars Science Laboratory design, but the entry will follow a different trajectory, landing at a different location and altitude on Mars. The general strategy for creating the Mars 2020 mission-specific environments follows from the Mars Science Laboratory experience. The primary difference is that now the effects of shock-layer radiation are modeled, with particular concern for the backshell.

Wise, Adam J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Design Methodology for Optimizing and Integrating Composite Materials in Gear Structures

The application of composite materials to gear structures is complex because of the gear shape, the need for precise dimensional tolerances, and the complex dynamic load condition. Methods are presented in this work to design and optimize an integrated composite hub-web structure that can be used as part of a hybrid composite-steel gear. The composite hub-web structure is a planar structure with a large decrease in thickness from the hub to the rim. Methods for design and optimization of this variable-thickness structure are presented along with a method for forming braided prepreg material to conform to the shape of this structure. A layered approach is presented that integrates cut plies or filler materials for thickness buildup with continuous-fiber layers for the primary load path. An additional gear design concept is presented that has an axially extended continuous-fiber composite structure that can be combined with the planar structure. A proposed optimization methodology is introduced where an optimized design is output for each type of optimization simulation. Through this process, composite knowledge can be incorporated in the optimization, and more control is given over the design during the process. The methods in this study provide a tool for designing and optimizing composite structures for gears and other high-power-density applications.

optimization↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Mapping of PM2.5 Episodes in the Wintertime San Joaquin Valley: A "Static" Model Using Column Water Vapor

The use of satellite Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from imaging spectrometers has been successful in quantifying and mapping high PM2.5 (particulate matter mass <2.5Âµm diameter) episodes for pollution abatement and health studies. However, some regions have high PM2.5 but poor estimation success. The challenges in using Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from imaging spectrometers to characterize PM2.5 worldwide was especially evident in the wintertime San Joaquin Valley (SJV). The SJV's attendant difficulties of high-albedo surfaces and very shallow, variable vertical mixing also occur in other significantly polluted regions around the world. We report on more accurate PM2.5 maps for the whole-winter period in the SJV, Nov 14, 2012?Dec 11, 2013. Intensive measurements by including NASA aircraft were made for several weeks in that winter, the DISCOVER-AQ California mission.We found success with a relatively simple method based on calibration and checking with surface monitors and a characterization of vertical mixing, and incorporating specific understandings of the region's climatology. We estimate PM2.5 to within ~7Âµgm?3 RMSE and with R values of ~0.9, based on remotely sensed MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) observations, and that certain further work will improve that accuracy. Mapping is at 1km resolution. This allows a time sequence of mapped aerosols at 1km for cloud-free days. We describe our technique as a "static estimation". Estimation procedures like this one, not dependent on well-mapped source strengths or on transport error, should help full source-driven simulations by deconstructing processes. They also provide a rapid method to create a long-term climatology.Essential features of the technique are (a) daily calibration of the AOT to PM2.5 using available surface monitors, and (b) characterization of mixed-layer dilution using column water vapor (CWV, otherwise "precipitable water"). We noted that on multi-day timescales both water vapor and particles share near-surface sources and both fall to very low values with altitude; indeed, both are largely removed by precipitation. The existence of layers of H2O or aerosol not within the mixed layer adds complexity, but mixed-effects statistical regression captures essential proportionality of PM2.5 and the ratio variable (AOT/CWV). Accuracy is much higher than previous statistical models, and can be extended to the whole Aqua-satellite data record. The maps and time-series we show suggest a repeated pattern for large valleys like the SJV ? progressive stabilization of the mixing height after frontal passages: PM2.5 is somewhat more determined by day-by-day changes in mixing than it is by the progressive accumulation of pollutants (revealed as increasing AOT).

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Development and Analysis of the Automated Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool Parametric Study Wrapper

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) Safety Group at the Johnson Space Center analyzes reentering spacecraft at the end of life. The program primarily used by ODPO in this effort is the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). ORSAT utilizes shape primitives as well as a variety of other parameters (material, size, thickness, aerodynamic mass, orbit inclination, etc.) to simulate the reentry process and ultimately, to determine if a spacecraft could be hazardous to the population on the ground. The NASA ODPO plans to automate the ORSAT process to run multiple ORSAT input files either concurrently or consecutively. This type of automation program will provide several benefits. First, there is a need to run large parametric studies for ORSAT analysts to gain a greater understanding of reentering object’s sensitivity to certain input variables. Secondly, a database of pre-run ORSAT cases will be used to develop a survivability model, which could be made available to spacecraft developers as a design for demise (D4D) tool. The recently completed Automated Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (AutoORSAT) Wrapper is currently being used to build a survivability database, the first step in developing a survivability model. Already, the data that AutoORSAT has produced provides a greater understanding of the sensitivity of variables such as the initial temperature of the spacecraft, spacecraft breakup altitude, and the aerodynamic mass of spacecraft.

Smith, Andrew N.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Agricultural Breadbaskets Shift Poleward Given Adaptive Farmer Behavior Under Climate Change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

adaptation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hourly Carbon Fluxes Estimation Using the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Data Over the Conterminous USA

Tremendous efforts by Fluxnet scientists over the past few decades have made thousands of site-years of carbon flux observations available for advancing our understanding of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. One of key Fluxnet measurements is net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as it is directly related to carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems. However, carbon flux estimation studies using satellite remote sensing have focused mainly on daily Gross Primary Production (GPP). The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. Because daily NEE is close to zero value, the carbon flux models using the polar orbiting satellite data have not been well used for NEE estimation. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors (e.g., GOES Advanced Baesline Imager (ABI) and Himawari Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI)) provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES ABI data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous USA. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and, in particular, solar radiation that is directly derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Fluxnet data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

Geostationary satellite↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Carbon Flux Model Using ABI Data Over the Conterminous US

The satellite-driven carbon flux estimation has been playing important role to estimate continental-scale carbon budget. One of the biggest recent advances in the satellite-driven carbon flux modeling is utilization of high-frequent geostationary satellites to estimate diurnal cycle in carbon fluxes. The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous US. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation were derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Ameriflux data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

geostationary satellite↗

NASA NTRS2023

Acoustics of a Supersonic Mach 1.4 Axisymmetric Spike Inlet

An inlet for a supersonic commercial aircraft is analyzed for noise radiation in low-speed configuration, with auxiliary inlet open. Duct mode amplitudes generated by the fan are determined by post-processing a URANS simulation and become a boundary condition to the inlet. Far-field sound is modeled using commercial acoustics finite element software. The effect of inlet geometry and acoustic liners is simulated and discussed. Absolute levels for inlet tone noise are predicted.

Supersonics↗

NASA NTRS2023

2023 Astrophotonics Roadmap: Pathways to Realizing Multi-Functional Integrated Astrophotonic Instruments

Photonic technologies offer numerous functionalities that can be used to realize astrophotonic instruments. The most spectacular example to date is the ESO Gravity instrument at the Very Large Telescope in Chile that combines the light-gathering power of four 8 m telescopes through a complex photonic interferometer. Fully integrated astrophotonic devices stand to offer critical advantages for instrument development, including extreme miniaturization when operating at the diffraction-limit, as well as integration, superior thermal and mechanical stabilization owing to the small footprint, and high replicability offering significant cost savings. Numerous astrophotonic technologies have been developed to address shortcomings of conventional instruments to date, including for example the development of photonic lanterns to convert from multimode inputs to single mode outputs, complex aperiodic fiber Bragg gratings to filter OH emission from the atmosphere, complex beam combiners to enable long baseline interferometry with for example, ESO Gravity, and laser frequency combs for high precision spectral calibration of spectrometers. Despite these successes, the facility implementation of photonic solutions in astronomical instrumentation is currently limited because of (1) low throughputs from coupling to fibers, coupling fibers to chips, propagation and bend losses, device losses, etc, (2) difficulties with scaling to large channel count devices needed for large bandwidths and high resolutions, and (3) efficient integration of photonics with detectors, to name a few. In this roadmap, we identify 24 key areas that need further development. We outline the challenges and advances needed across those areas covering design tools, simulation capabilities, fabrication processes, the need for entirely new components, integration and hybridization and the characterization of devices. To realize these advances the astrophotonics community will have to work cooperatively with industrial partners who have more advanced manufacturing capabilities. With the advances described herein, multi-functional integrated instruments will be realized leading to novel observing capabilities for both ground and space based platforms, enabling new scientific studies and discoveries.

astrophotonics↗

NASA NTRS2024

Time-dependent Photoionization Modeling of Warm Absorbers: High-resolution Spectra and Response to Flaring Light Curves

Time-dependent photoionization modeling of warm absorber (WA) outflows in active galactic nuclei can play an important role in understanding the interaction between WAs and the central black hole. The WA may be out of the equilibrium state because of the variable nature of the central continuum. In this paper, with the help of time dependent photoionization modeling, we study how the WA gas properties change with time and how it reacts to changing radiation fields. Incorporating a flaring incident light curve, we investigate the behavior of WAs using a photoionization code that simultaneously and consistently solves the time-dependent equations of level population, heating and cooling, and radiative transfer. We simulate the physical processes in the gas clouds, such as ionization, recombination, heating, cooling, and the transfer of ionizing radiation through the cloud and present high-resolution time-resolved absorption spectra. We demonstrate that time-dependent radiative transfer is important and the calculations that omit this effect quantitatively and systematically underestimate the absorption. Time-dependent photoionization models provide crucial insights into the characteristics of WAs and can be used to constrain their density and spatial distribution.

Astrophysicists↗

NASA NTRS2024

Time-Dependent Photoionization Modeling of Warm Absorbers: High-Resolution Spectra and Response to Flaring Light Curves

Dev R. Sadaula↗

DOE OSTI2024

System Modeling of Frost/Defrost Cycles in Heat Pumps

Accurately modeling frost/defrost cycles is crucial for guiding heat exchanger design, appropriately sizing the compressor, and quantifying seasonal energy consumption for heating. While previous modelling studies of frosting cycle have predominantly focused on the component level of fin-and-tube coils, there has been limited development of models for system defrosting cycles. This study enhances the existing knowledge by improving a detailed, segment-to-segment heat exchanger model to simulate frost/defrost cycles for both fin-and-tube coils and microchannel heat exchangers. Furthermore, it integrates this component-level model into a steady-state/quasi-steady-state system modeling framework to simulate complete frost/defrost processes, i.e. the ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). This comprehensive approach will unveil differences in coil types, and their interactions with the outdoor fan. It will also predict energy consumption patterns and time intervals associated with these processes.

Shen, Bo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydride Reprecipitation in Prototypical 17x17 PWR Fuel Rods after Simulated Vacuum Drying Conditions

Light water reactor (LWR) fuel rod cladding picks up hydrogen as it oxidizes in reactor. Once the hydrogen concentration exceeds the solubility limit, zirconium hydride platelets precipitate, generally in the circumferential direction. In preparation for dry storage, elevated temperatures can dissolve some of the circumferential hydrides, which during cooling can then reprecipitate in a direction perpendicular to the hoop stress (radially). From 2019 to 2024, ORNL published a series of reports that included metallographic observations of cladding after a thermal transient to 400°C followed by slow cooling. The simulated dry storage process was performed on three full-length 17x17 PWR fuel rods at their as-discharged rod internal pressure. There were two important observations from the metallographic examinations of these heat-treated rods: (1) the propensity for hydride reorientation is strongly influenced by nearby as-discharged precipitated hydrides, (2) the radial hydrides observed near the cladding inner diameter were often associated with cracks in the pellet. Subsequent modeling using the BISON fuel performance code that considered the effects of pellet cracks and pellet-cladding bonding observed in high-burnup fuel support the conclusion that pellet cracks enhance the local hoop stress in the cladding creating preferential sites for hydride reorientation, and that the influence of the pellet cannot be ignored in accurate fuel rod performance predictions.

Montgomery, Rose [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286038936)↗