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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Using Financial Contracts to Facilitate Informal Leases Within a Western United States Water Market Based on Prior Appropriation

The ability to reallocate water to higher-value uses during drought is an increasingly important “soft-path” tool for managing water resources in an uncertain future. In most of the Western United States, state-level water market institutions that enable reallocation also impose substantial transaction costs on market participants related to regulatory approval and litigation. These transaction costs can be prohibitive for many participants in terms of both costs and lengthy approval periods, limiting transfers and reducing allocation efficiency, particularly during drought crises periods. This manuscript describes a mechanism to reduce transaction costs by adapting an existing form of informal leases to facilitate quicker and less expensive transfers among market participants. Instead of navigating the formal approval process to lease a water right, informal leases are financial contracts for conservation that enable more junior holders of existing rights to divert water during drought, thereby allowing the formal transfer approval process to be bypassed. The informal leasing approach is tested in the Upper Colorado River Basin, where drought and institutional barriers to transfers lead to frequent shortages for urban rights holders along Colorado's Front Range. Informal leases are facilitated via option contracts that include adaptive triggers and that define volumes of additional, compensatory, releases designed to mitigate impacts to instream flows and third parties. Results suggest that more rapid reallocation of water via informal leases could have resulted in up to $222 million in additional benefits for urban rights holders during the historical period 1950–2013.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Benthic Habitat Monitoring Approach for Marine and Hydrokinetic Sites (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the work completed as part of the Standardized and Cost-Effective Benthic Habitat Mapping and Monitoring Tools for MHK Environmental Assessments project funded by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under contract DE-EE007826 to Integral Consulting Inc. The overall goal of this project was to demonstrate a consistent, repeatable, and semi-automated seafloor and sediment mapping approach for rapidly characterizing benthic physical and biological/habitat conditions to support marine environmental assessments for marine and hydrokinetic energy sites. The approach evaluated combines sediment profile imaging and plan view (SPI/PV) technology with multibeam echosounder surveys as an effective and low-cost benthic habitat mapping protocol. A key innovation was the development of a semi-automated computer vision system that standardizes the extraction of data from the SPI/PV images. Other elements of the project were SPI camera hardware modifications, including the design and fabrication of a prototype “power” SPI camera to improve camera prism penetration in firm substrates, and outreach to agency regulators and other stakeholders on this habitat mapping approach. This technical report consists of five main subsections that summarize: 1) the benthic mapping approach; 2) benthic mapping results from the three areas’ surveys; 3) the development and performance of the image processing algorithms; 4) SPI camera hardware improvements and prototype testing; and 5) the regulatory outreach efforts.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Code Coverage Status of the ARC Code PERSENT

The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system supports users in their fast reactor design goals by providing neutronic, thermal-hydraulic, and structural analysis capabilities. PERSENT fulfills the role of generating reactivity coefficients for a given time point of a REBUS calculation usable in a point kinetics based safety analysis capability. PERSENT also provides a sensitivity coefficient capability on eigenvalue, reactivity worth, and several other key coefficients that are used in the follow-on safety analysis. Given a co-variance matrix, PERSENT can carry out the uncertainty quantification to indicate the amount of error in the reactivity coefficients derived from the errors in the cross section measurements. With continued improvement of computational resources, many of the geometry modeling capabilities in DIF3D that were primarily used in low order schemes are not really needed anymore. Today, the diffusion and transport capabilities of DIF3D-VARIANT are primarily used in the reactor design process with some scattered usage of DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-Nodal. PERSENT is part of the ARC code system and is built around DIF3D-VARIANT and the flux solution it provides. The purpose of the present work is to identify a set of test problems for PERSENT and assess the code coverage of PERSENT for those test problems. PERSENT treats the DIF3D executable as an external executable and thus the code coverage considerations only need to focus on the PERSENT source code and only a fraction of the connected modules in the existing ARC software library. The goal is to document what parts of the existing PERSENT code are touched by the set of test problems and which are not. Because the verification work done on PERSENT was focused on the most common uses of PERSENT for fast reactor analysis, the code coverage assessment of those capabilities is the highest priority. This will ensure that nothing is being missed by the existing verification test problems that users of PERSENT rely upon. The code coverage analysis of PERSENT was performed with the Code Coverage Tool of the Intel Fortran compiler which requires modifications to the compilation of PERSENT. The detailed coverage tables are given for each submodule of PERSENT. Most of the uncovered parts/files could be easily ignored because they are either for error message and debugging output or not needed by PERSENT today. Only a few uncovered parts of PERSENT deserve extending the verification test suite.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Particulate Transport for Delivery of Solid Amendments into the Subsurface: FY24 Status Report

For particulate-based amendments to be viable for field-scale remediation at the Hanford Site (e.g., 200 DV-1 Operable Unit), particles need to be delivered a sufficient radial distance from an injection well and retained at concentrations high enough for effective treatment. An accurate description of the particle radius of influence (ROI) is critical for developing an overall remediation strategy. However, field-scale particle simulations are currently limited due to insufficient simulation capabilities and a lack of experimental data to validate and parameterize particle transport models. To help build toward field-scale deployment, this fiscal year (FY) we have (1) developed a pre screening tool to estimate particle transport, (2) implemented particle transport models within PFLOTRAN, and (3) conducted preliminary estimations of particle ROI. While field-scale numerical simulations will ultimately be necessary before remedy design and field implementation, we have developed a pre-screening tool that offers valuable estimations of expected particle injectability and ROI in a 1-D system. The advantage of the tool is that it does not require extensive laboratory experiments and instead makes predictions based solely on routine laboratory measurements. This tool can assist in down-selection and decision-making by identifying which particle amendment systems are worth pursuing in future laboratory experiments, such as 1-D column tests and beyond. With any system, scaling up from the lab to the field presents challenges. Currently, there is no field data available for model calibration or validation. However, the theoretical particle models being developed herein are the best tools available to guide progress toward field deployment. To help bridge this gap and verify model predictions, larger-scale lab experiments are being proposed. To advance simulation capabilities, six particle transport models are being integrated into the reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN. These include colloid filtration theory (CFT) and five additional particle transport models (M1-M5). Each model, from M1 to M5, progressively incorporates additional particle transport and retention processes. Ultimately, the simplest model capable of accurately describing 1-D column data will be selected and parameterized. During FY24, the CFT and M1 model have been fully implemented within PFLOTRAN. Using an existing 1 D column experiment, the two currently implemented particle transport models (CFT and M1), and associated parameters, were fit to this experiment. While simpler model formulations are helpful for estimations, these formulations could not fully describe particle transport and retention behavior in the previous 1-D column experiment. Thus, additional complexities will need to be considered, which will be accounted for in the M2-M5 model formulations. Additionally, because a viscous, shear thinning fluid was required to keep particles in suspension, considerations for flow will also need to also be accounted for. Therefore, a new immiscible two-phase flow mode is currently being implemented in PFLOTRAN. With some modifications, this new flow module could also support simulation of non-Newtonian liquid amendments, foams, and emulsions. We also estimated the expected ROI of solid amendments using 1-D simulations. The average predicted ROI was approximately 15 ft for micron-sized zero valent iron (mZVI) suspended in xanthan gum (XG). Using the pre screening tool and ROI estimates, additional amendment-delivery laboratory characterization and experiments are proposed. The results from additional experiments can be used to validate and parametrize particulate transport model formulations, which will ultimately provide predictive capabilities for field amendment-delivery systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

An empirical investigation of organic software product lines

Abstract Software product line engineering is a best practice for managing reuse in families of software systems that is increasingly being applied to novel and emerging domains. In this work we investigate the use of software product line engineering in one of these new domains, synthetic biology. In synthetic biology living organisms are programmed to perform new functions or improve existing functions. These programs are designed and constructed using small building blocks made out of DNA. We conjecture that there are families of products that consist of common and variable DNA parts, and we can leverage product line engineering to help synthetic biologists build, evolve, and reuse DNA parts. In this paper we perform an investigation of domain engineering that leverages an open-source repository of more than 45,000 reusable DNA parts. We show the feasibility of these new types of product line models by identifying features and related artifacts in up to 93.5% of products, and that there is indeed both commonality and variability. We then construct feature models for four commonly engineered functions leading to product lines ranging from 10 to 7.5 × 10 20 products. In a case study we demonstrate how we can use the feature models to help guide new experimentation in aspects of application engineering. Finally, in an empirical study we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of automated reverse engineering on both complete and incomplete sets of products. In the process of these studies, we highlight key challenges and uncovered limitations of existing SPL techniques and tools which provide a roadmap for making SPL engineering applicable to new and emerging domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Tools for Customizing Heat Treatment of Additively Manufactured Aerospace Components

Laser-bed powder fusion (LBPF) additive manufacturing is increasingly being used to produce components of complex geometries using the Ni-base superalloy Inconel 718. The composition and the microstructure of the alloy are currently well optimized for wrought components made using conventional manufacturing processes such as rolling, forging, extrusion, etc. The attractive mechanical properties of the alloy result from the underlying austenitic matrix with fine equiaxed grains, and a high density and uniform distribution of the precipitation hardening phase, γ". Heat treatment steps such as homogenization, solutioning and aging are well documented for the wrought alloy. However, when the same wrought alloy compositions are used for the additive manufacturing (AM) processes, the asprocessed microstructure is significantly different, because of the different thermal history associated with LBPF, including rapid solidification and multiple temperature excursions that lead to multiple re-melting and reheating in the solid state. Rapid solidification introduces potential non-equilibrium effects at the moving solid-liquid interfaces that impact the extent of solute segregation, as well as the morphology of the dendritic grains that form. In order to recover the target mechanical properties, AM components have to undergo post-process heat treatments. However, such heat treatments have to be custom designed for the AM process and the component geometry because of the expected vast differences in the microstructure at various locations of a component with complex geometry. The homogenization and precipitation steps should be optimized for the component so that target mechanical properties can be obtained throughout the part. The objective of this research is to utilize High Performance Computing in phase field simulations of microstructure evolution during post-processing of AM components. The physics-based modeling will be beneficial in reducing the experimental effort required for heat treatment process selection, optimization, and certification, thus leading to a significant reduction in energy consumption for AM and post-processing heat treatment. The optimization study will help identify heat treatments steps that are critical for development of a final desired microstructure with the minimum energy input. This combined with shortening of the production cycle (time-to-market) by reducing the number of failed parts (property targets), and reduction in the number of iterations for process optimization, will enable 30-40% savings in the energy costs. Phase field simulations of the degree of homogenization and the effect of local matrix composition on the nucleation and growth of competing precipitating phases were performed using the Microstructure Evolution Using Massively Parallel Phase Field Simulations code developed in-house at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The simulations were able to successfully capture the kinetics of nucleation and growth, and morphologies of various precipitating phases as a function of local matrix compositions and composition gradients characteristic of local microstructures arising from location-dependent variations in the thermal conditions. Future work will involve extending the simulations to a length scale consisting of multiple dendrites, so that the effect of homogenization on the coarsening of the dendrites can be simulated and used as an additional input to the optimization of the heat treatment process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Dynamic Networks Experiments: Virtual Experiments to Quantify Gains in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

We describe an ongoing series of virtual experiments conducted collaboratively by four United States National Laboratories: Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These Dynamic Network Experiments (DNEs) provide an experimental framework to evaluate the potential impact of new research tools on nuclear explosion monitoring. The second DNE (DNE2), completed in 2024, exploited waveform data (seismic, infrasound, and electromagnetic) that was recorded by multi-modal sensors within and near the Nevada National Security Site and synthetic radionuclide signatures over multiple time periods. During the execution of DNE2, we processed and analyzed data through a multi-stage event processing pipeline that ingested raw data, performed quality control, detected signals, built events from these signals, located these events, and characterized the events’ source types and sizes. For each stage and over the entire event processing pipeline, we evaluated performance changes by comparing the performance of new data processing methods, models, and algorithms against a baseline. We also performed an additional execution phase to assess event processing pipeline function, speed, and efficiency against that of an expert analyst, including computational and manual efforts. Finally, we assessed the impact and effort of modern computing infrastructure on the monitoring pipeline. This paper describes key elements of the DNEs, from formulation through execution, as demonstrated in DNE2. The DNEs introduce several novel concepts to quantitatively measure the potential impact of new methods on explosion monitoring, including the collaborative design of multi-modal datasets, performance and logistical metrics, and integrated analyses.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced PGM-free Cathode Engineering for High Power Density and Durability

Polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs) are among the most promising technologies for future electric vehicles by using clean H2 with much-improved energy conversion efficiency, longer range, and rapid refueling. However, due to a large amount of platinum group metal (PGM) catalyst used in their electrodes, their prohibitively high cost hinders broad commercialization of PEFCs for transportation. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop low-cost, high-performance PGM-free cathode catalysts that have the potential to dramatically transform the economics of PEFC commercialization by reducing catalyst costs by one to two orders of magnitude. However, before PGM-free cathodes become viable, several technical challenges associated with PGM-free cathodes must be addressed, including insufficient activity and stability of the catalysts, as well as severe water flooding and large transport losses in the electrodes. Overcoming those barriers and ultimately meeting the challenging automotive PEFC performance targets was the focus of this comprehensive research and development effort on new PGM-free cathodes. To this end, we assembled a team including leading researchers from universities and industry with different but complementary expertise and capabilities. The project combined three novel and promising approaches: Advanced metal-organic framework (MOF)-derived M-N-C catalysts with a high activity and impressive durability, Novel PGM-free specific cathode architectures and fabrication strategies capable of addressing the substantial flooding and transport resistances in thicker cathodes by introducing engineered hydrophobicity through additives and support layers, and Advanced electrode ionomers with high proton conductivity for low ohmic losses across the electrode and more uniform catalyst utilization. The implementation of these new materials and electrode designs was supported by a suite of advanced experimental and simulation tools that allows us to identify performance and durability bottlenecks, devise solutions, and establish rational material design and synthesis targets. These methods include advanced electrochemical characterization, high-resolution imaging, and multi-scale modeling. In addition, the project team leveraged a broad cross-section of the ElectroCat consortium’s national laboratory facilities and expertise in advancing these materials and design strategies. Finally, the industry partners on the project facilitated the evaluation of scaled-up synthesis and manufacturing in the United States. Over its four-year period, the project made significant year-over-year advances in PGM-free cathode performance and viability. A combination of high activity and highly durable catalysts were developed through novel catalyst synthesis strategies, which met several performance and durability targets. More specifically, a catalyst prepared from MOFs and Fe2O3 nanoparticles with ammonium chloride and chemical vapor deposition treatments yielded a significant advancement in PGM-free cathode durability. Several novel strategies for fabricating cathodes were demonstrated, including those designed to reduce flooding and thickness of the cells for significantly increased volumetric power density. An optimized cathode with high conductivity ionomer and tuned ink processing for hydrophobicity yielded high fuel cell performance with new levels power density and maximum current. The scientific studies and modeling assessment also provided an outlook for future efforts, including a focus on catalysts with an increased density of the highly stable active sites developed in this project.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proximity Portability and in Transit , M-to-N Data Partitioning and Movement in SENSEI [Book Chapter]

In high-performance parallel in situ processing, the term in transit processing refers to those configurations where data must move from a producer to a consumer that runs on separate resources. In the context of parallel and distributed computing on an HPC platform one of the central challenges is to determine a mapping of data from producer ranks to consumer ranks. This problem is complicated by the heterogeneity that arises in producer-consumer pairs, such as when producer and consumer codes have different levels of concurrency, different scaling characteristics, or different data models. The resulting mapping and movement of data from M producer to N consumer ranks can have a significant impact on aggregate application performance, particularly when the data consumer requires only a subset of the overall data for its task. This chapter focuses on the design considerations that underlie SENSEI’s implementation to this challenging problem. These design considerations extend the core SENSEI architecture and include ideas like the need to accommodate flexibility in the choice of different partitioning methods, the ability for a data consumer to request and receive only the subset of data needed for its particular operation, and the ability to leverage any of several different data transport tools. The idea of proximity portability, being able to use different data transport methods as part of an in transit workflow, is illustrated through the use of three different transport layers where switching from one transport tool to another is accomplished with only a configuration file change. Here, the chapter also includes a performance analysis summary showing the performance gains that are possible in terms of multiple metrics, such as memory footprint, time to solution, and amount of data moved, when using optimized partitioners in an in transit setting, gains that are made possible by the implementation shaped by specific design considerations.

Bethel, E. Wes↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Framework for Machine-Learning-Enabled 13 C Fluxomics

13 C metabolic flux analysis (MFA) has emerged as a powerful tool for synthetic biology. This optimization-based approach suffers long computation time and unstable solutions depending on the initial guess. Here, we develop a machine-learning-based framework for 13 C fluxomics. Specifically, training and test data sets are generated by metabolic network decomposition and flux sampling, in which flux ratios at metabolic nodes and simulated labeling patterns of metabolites are used as training targets and features, respectively. To improve prediction accuracy and simplify the model, automated processes are developed for flux ratio selection based on solvability and feature screening based on importance. We found that predictive performance can be significantly improved using both amino acids and central carbon metabolites in comparison with amino acids alone. Together with measured external fluxes, the predicted flux ratios determine the mass balance system, yielding global flux distributions. This approach is validated by flux estimation using both simulated and experimental data in comparison with canonical 13 C MFA. The approach represents a reliable fluxomics method readily applicable to high-throughput metabolic phenotyping, which highlights the advances of intelligent learning algorithms in synthetic biology, specifically in the Test and Learn stage of the Design-Build-Test-Learn cycle.

13C metabolic flux analysis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of the Arrhenius parameters between conventional hydrothermal and microwave-assisted synthesis methods for tin oxide nanoparticles

Microwave (MW) irradiation has emerged as a powerful tool for accelerating materials synthesis, yet the origins of its specific influence on reaction kinetics remain elusive. While multiple studies have attributed the observed enhancements in reaction rates under MW heating to reduced activation energies, other accounts have suggested modifications to the Arrhenius pre-exponential factor as the predominant cause. Distinguishing between these parameters in modern applications of MW processing in nanomaterials requires experimental approaches capable of resolving the dynamic and nuanced structural kinetics that govern MW-assisted chemistry. Here, we combine in-situ synchrotron X-ray total scattering with pair distribution function (PDF) analysis to track the structural evolution of SnO 2 nanoparticles synthesized via MW-assisted and conventional hydrothermal conditions. Avrami modeling and Arrhenius analysis suggest that although MW irradiation yields a higher apparent activation energy, the enhanced crystallization is better explained by a pre-exponential factor several orders of magnitude larger than that of conventional heating. These findings suggest that the MW field induces a higher frequency of successful molecular rearrangements rather than lowering the intrinsic activation barrier. The results contribute further insights clarifying the role of the applied MW field for materials design where MW-specific effects can be deliberately harnessed. Furthermore, this work presents a framework promoting the utility of in-situ PDF characterization coupled with kinetic analysis for developing more sophisticated descriptions of nanoscale transformations for MW-driven reaction kinetics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Template Discovery Using Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

Modeling adversarial activities is a critical component of developing high-con?dence indicators of efforts to acquire, fabricate, proliferate, and/or deploy weapons of mass terror (WMTs). Current approaches to generating representative patterns of interest (a.k.a templates) from the real-world domains involve a Subject Matter Expert (SME)-guided manual process. The goal of Data-Driven Template Discovery (DDTD) is to use a (potentially small) set of SME generated templates to discover other previously unknown and interesting templates in an attributed graph. A template is an activity pattern describing a set of interactions among a group of nodes in the graph. The motivation behind DDTD is to expand the original set of templates, without having SMEs craft all the templates by hand. DDTD also provides seed templates to SMEs, to help them construct larger, high-?delity, and scenario-oriented templates. In these cases, obtaining a larger set of templates that are related (contain similar signals) to the original set is of great value. In this work, we propose to use Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNs) to discover new templates that are heavily related to the original set. GCNs are a family of Neural Network (NN) architectures especially designed to work directly on graphs. In contrast to the traditional NNs, that require considerable amounts of labeled data, GCNs do not require a big labeled training set because they can directly leverage the graph structure instead. This property makes GCNs the perfect tool for creating activity templates.

Joaristi, Mikel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-based modeling and information-theoretic sensor and settings selection for tool wear detection in precision machining

Precision machining of metals is an energy intensive process with applications and impacts across the manufacturing industry. The energy efficiency, product yield, and maintenance of the precision machine require a digital twin that can assist with prognostics and health management. In this report a physics-based model is developed and validated against face milling data, and then used for the timely and precise inference of machining faults that cannot be measured directly. Computer numerical control (CNC) measurements of power and force are used through this physics-based machining model to predict deviations of the outputs of power consumption and cutting forces during normal operation. A model-based fault detection and isolation methodology is applied to determine the optimal (traditional and available) sensor suite and the test settings (admissible input values) that improve the inference of tool wear in face milling. The optimal sensor suite and input test settings are obtained by solving a mixed integer non-linear program that optimizes information-theoretic metrics relevant to the detection and isolation of tool wear from steady-state or transient machining measurements. Dynamic time warping and k—NN classification are then used to validate the robustness of the optimal design for fault detection test design, including the optimal sensor suite.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

OLEDs on planarized light outcoupling-enhancing structures in plastic

Light extraction from OLEDs remains a challenge. While consumer demand for OLEDs in display technology continues to grow as prices decline, commercial use of OLEDs in solid state lighting (SSL) applications is lagging due to low light extraction, which results in low efficiency. Previous studies have been directed toward increasing the light extraction factor η out , but cost effective approaches that will enable high throughput and potential upscaling, as well as elucidation of the extraction process, are still lagging. One promising approach is the use of buried light extraction enhancing patterns that are planarized with a high refractive index (RI) layer. When adding substrate mode extracting means, the highest external quantum efficiencies (EQEs) were achieved using a complex approach of planarized vacuum nano holes. Here we present η out -enhancing planarized extraction structures (PES) in plastic. While plastic substrates currently present long-term stability issues and other drawbacks, as we show, they provide a tool for simple, inexpensive, and rapid generation of various enhancing structures that importantly can be transferred to the preferred rigid and flexible glass substrates. Moreover, plastic substrates are attractive for biomedical applications. The successful structures we present are easily scalable periodic corrugations, e.g., with pitch a ~ 4.25 µm and pitch/depth ratio a/h ~2.4 planarized by a layer of RI ~1.9, resulting in maximal EQEs exceeding 60% for a green OLED and 48.5% for a white OLED. Comparable increased EQEs were achieved for structures with a ~ 15 and 16 µm, and a/h ~ 2.1 and 4, respectively. Enhanced extraction was also observed with a very simply fabricated quasiperiodic nanohole array, and surprisingly, with a random shallow design. The latter is at variance with simulations based on diffraction only. Results are discussed in terms of a, h, and structural parameters together with scattering matrix simulations to assess the effect of various PES parameters and the nanoparticle-embedded planarizing layer on η out . The experiments and simulations indicate contributions of diffraction, reflection, and scattering to EQE enhancement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon source–driven metabolic and regulatory remodeling defines phenomic states in Lipomyces starkeyi

Lipomyces is a genus of oleaginous yeasts with potential for contributing to reliable biomanufacturing supply chains. However, progress in advanced strain designs and engineering efforts are still constrained by a lack of understanding of the underlying molecular drivers of Lipomyces phenotypes. To address this gap, we collected a suite of multi-omic data to dissect how carbon source availability reshapes the metabolic network, lipid allocation, and regulatory architecture of Lipomyces starkeyi. We observed that glucose promotes biosynthetic and proliferative processes supported by abundant energy and carbon intermediates, xylose enhances redox-balancing mechanisms centered on the pentose phosphate pathway, and glycerol activates respiratory metabolism, ß-oxidation, and the glyoxylate cycle. Lipid species distributions remained consistent in both nitrogen replete and depleted conditions across the carbon sources, indicating robust production mechanisms. Regulatory protein identification and network analysis revealed glycerol-driven respiratory growth favors regulatory programs integrating stress tolerance, redox balance, and lipid-associated metabolism, whereas xylose growth activates compensatory transcriptional responses aimed at maintaining mitochondrial function. Nitrogen limitation modulates the strength of these responses but does not fundamentally alter their direction, reinforcing carbon source as the dominant driver of regulatory architecture. Taken together, this data enhances the understanding of Lipomyces molecular rearrangements and provides a foundation for further development of predictive phenotypic tools in this genus.

Biotechnology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of an Attenuated Total Reflectance–Ultraviolet–Visible Probe for the Online Monitoring of Dark Solutions

Optical spectroscopy is a valuable tool for on-line monitoring of a variety of processes. Ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectroscopy in particular, can monitor the concentration of analytes as well as identify speciation and oxidation state. However, it can be difficult to impossible to employ UV-vis based sensors on chemical systems that are very dark (i.e., high optical density) as exceedingly short pathlengths are required (for transmission approaches) or effective means of backscattering are needed (for reflectance approaches). Examples of processes that would benefit significantly from the use of optical sensors and encounter these challenges include used nuclear fuel recycling and molten salts with high concentrations of dissolved uranium. Utilizing an attenuated total reflectance (ATR) UV-vis approach can overcome these challenges and allow for the measurement of solutions orders of magnitude more concentrated than transmission UV-vis. However, determining ideal sensor specifications for varied processes can be time consuming and expensive. Here, in this study, we evaluate the ability for a novel ATR-UV-vis probe to measure very concentrated solutions of Co(II) and Ni(II) nitrate as well as organic dyes (methylene blue, acid red 1, and crystal violet). This sensor design provides a modular method for exploring possible “pathlengths” by altering the exposed ATR fiber length. Also studied were approaches to loading and measuring the sensor cell. These results are compared to a traditional 1 cm cuvette measured by transmission UV-vis. It was found that the ATR-UV-vis probe was capable of measuring solutions 600 times more concentrated than the 1 cm cuvette. Advanced data analysis in the form of multivariate curve resolution (MCR) was used to analyze the speciation of methylene blue over a large concentration range. The application of this novel ATR-UV-vis probe to the interrogation of dark solutions is a promising avenue for use in on-line monitoring of nuclear processes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗