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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of structure and cation ordering in an ordered normal-inverse double spinel

Abstract Spinels represent an important class of technologically relevant materials, used in diverse applications ranging from dielectrics, sensors and energy materials. While solid solutions combining two “single spinels” have been explored in a number of past studies, no ordered “double” spinels have been reported. Based on our first principles computations, here we predict the existence of such a double spinel compound MgAlGaO 4 , formed by an equimolar mixing of MgAl 2 O 4 normal and MgGa 2 O 4 inverse spinels. After studying the details of its atomic and electronic structure, we use a cluster expansion based effective Hamiltonian approach with Monte Carlo simulations to study the thermodynamic behavior and cation distribution as a function of temperature. Our simulations provide strong evidence for short-ranged cation order in the double spinel structure, even at significantly elevated temperatures. Finally, an attempt was made to synthesize the predicted double spinel compound. Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometry and X-ray diffraction Rietveld refinements were performed to characterize the single-phase chemical composition and local configurational environments, which showed a favorable agreement with the theoretical predictions. These findings suggest that a much larger number of compounds can potentially be realized within this chemical space, opening new avenues for the design of spinel-structured materials with tailored functionality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the formation of fractionally doped perovskite oxides by a function-confined machine learning method

Abstract Fractionally doped perovskites oxides (FDPOs) have demonstrated ubiquitous applications such as energy conversion, storage and harvesting, catalysis, sensor, superconductor, ferroelectric, piezoelectric, magnetic, and luminescence. Hence, an accurate, cost-effective, and easy-to-use methodology to discover new compositions is much needed. Here, we developed a function-confined machine learning methodology to discover new FDPOs with high prediction accuracy from limited experimental data. By focusing on a specific application, namely solar thermochemical hydrogen production, we collected 632 training data and defined 21 desirable features. Our gradient boosting classifier model achieved a high prediction accuracy of 95.4% and a high F1 score of 0.921. Furthermore, when verified on additional 36 experimental data from existing literature, the model showed a prediction accuracy of 94.4%. With the help of this machine learning approach, we identified and synthesized 11 new FDPO compositions, 7 of which are relevant for solar thermochemical hydrogen production. We believe this confined machine learning methodology can be used to discover, from limited data, FDPOs with other specific application purposes.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Testing the predictive power of theory for Pd x Ir (100-x) alloy nanoparticles for the oxygen reduction reaction

Here, density functional theory (DFT) calculations of O and OH binding energies on triatomic surface ensembles of Pd x Ir (100-x) nanoalloys successfully predicted the overall trend in experimental oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) activity as a function of nanoparticle (NP) composition. Specifically, triatomic Pd 3 ensembles were found to possess optimal O and OH binding energies and were predicted to be highly active sites for the ORR, rivaling that of Pt(111). However, DFT calculations suggest that the O binding energy increases at active sites containing Ir, thereby decreasing ORR activity. Pd x Ir (100-x) nanoalloys were synthesized using a microwave-assisted method and their activity towards the ORR was tested using rotating disk voltammetry (RDV). As predicted, the bimetallic electrocatalysts exhibited worse catalytic activity than the Pd-only NPs. The strong qualitative correlation between the theoretical and experimental results demonstrates that the activity of individual active sites on the surface of NPs can serve as a proxy for overall activity. This is a particularly useful strategy for applying DFT calculations to electrocatalysts that are too large for true first-principle analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the chemical reactivity of organic materials using a machine-learning approach

Stability and compatibility between chemical components are essential parameters that need to be considered in the selection of functional materials in configuring a system. In configuring devices such as batteries or solar cells, not only the functionality of individual constituting materials such as electrodes or electrolyte but also an appropriate combination of materials which do not undergo unwanted side reactions is critical in ensuring their reliable performance in long-term operation. While the universal theory that can predict the general chemical reactivity between materials is long awaited and has been the subject of studies with a rich history, traditional ways proposed to date have been mostly based on simple electronic properties of materials such as electronegativity, ionization energy, electron affinity and hardness/softness, and could be applied to only a small group of materials. Moreover, prediction has often been far from accurate and has failed to offer general implications; thus it was practically inadequate as a selection criterion from a large material database, i.e. data-driven material discovery. Herein, we propose a new model for predicting the general reactivity and chemical compatibility among a large number of organic materials, realized by a machine-learning approach. As a showcase, we demonstrate that our new implemented model successfully reproduces previous experimental results reported on side-reactions occurring in lithium–oxygen electrochemical cells. Furthermore, the mapping of chemical stability among more than 90 available electrolyte solvents and the representative redox mediators is realized by this approach, presenting an important guideline in the development of stable electrolyte/redox mediator couples for lithium–oxygen batteries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast predictions of liquid-phase acid-catalyzed reaction rates using molecular dynamics simulations and convolutional neural networks

The rates of liquid-phase, acid-catalyzed reactions relevant to the upgrading of biomass into high-value chemicals are highly sensitive to solvent composition and identifying suitable solvent mixtures is theoretically and experimentally challenging. We show that the complex atomistic configurations of reactant–solvent environments generated by classical molecular dynamics simulations can be exploited by 3D convolutional neural networks to enable accurate predictions of Brønsted acid-catalyzed reaction rates for model biomass compounds. We develop a 3D convolutional neural network, which we call SolventNet, and train it to predict acid-catalyzed reaction rates using experimental reaction data and corresponding molecular dynamics simulation data for seven biomass-derived oxygenates in water–cosolvent mixtures. We show that SolventNet can predict reaction rates for additional reactants and solvent systems an order of magnitude faster than prior simulation methods. This combination of machine learning with molecular dynamics enables the rapid, high-throughput screening of solvent systems and identification of improved biomass conversion conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Graphical Gaussian Process Regression Model for Aqueous Solvation Free Energy Prediction of Organic Molecules in Redox Flow Battery

The solvation free energy of organic molecules is a critical parameter in determining emergent properties such as solubility, liquid-phase equilibrium constants, and pKa and redox potentials in an organic redox flow battery. In this work, we present a machine learning (ML) model that can learn and predict the aqueous solvation free energy of an organic molecule using Gaussian process regression method based on a new molecular graph kernel. To investigate the performance of the ML model on electrostatic interaction, the nonpolar interaction contribution of solvent and the conformational entropy of solute in solvation free energy, three data sets with implicit or explicit water solvent models, and contribution of conformational entropy of solute are tested. We demonstrate that our ML model can predict the solvation free energy of molecules at chemical accuracy with a mean absolute error of less than 1 kcal/mol for subsets of the QM9 dataset and the Freesolv database. To solve the general data scarcity problem for a graph-based ML model, we propose a dimension reduction algorithm based on the distance between molecular graphs, which can be used to examine the diversity of the molecular data set. It provides a promising way to build a minimum training set to improve prediction for certain test sets where the space of molecular structures is predetermined.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model for a nanoscale switch accurately predicts thermal actuation behavior

Manipulation of temperature can be used to actuate DNA origami nano-hinges containing gold nanoparticles. We develop a physical model of this system that uses partition function analysis of the interaction between the nano-hinge and nanoparticle to predict the probability that the nano-hinge is open at a given temperature. The model agrees well with experimental data and predicts experimental conditions that allow the actuation temperature of the nano-hinge to be tuned over a range of temperatures from 30 °C to 45 °C. Additionally, the model identifies microscopic interactions that are important to the macroscopic behavior of the system, revealing surprising features of the system. This combination of physical insight and predictive potential is likely to inform future designs that integrate nanoparticles into dynamic DNA origami structures or use strand binding interactions to control dynamic DNA origami behavior. Furthermore, our modeling approach could be expanded to consider the incorporation, stability, and actuation of other types of functional elements or actuation mechanisms integrated into nucleic acid devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Excursions During in situ Oxidative Regeneration of Packed Bed Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Catalyst

Ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) uses a secondary reactor to upgrade biomass pyrolysis vapors to stabilized CFP oils with reduced oxygen content. In one configuration, the secondary reactor is operated as a packed-bed swing reactor system which allows coke-deactivated beds to be decarbonized in situ while other beds remain online for vapor upgrading. In situ decarbonization must be done carefully to avoid irreversible deactivation and/or physical degradation of catalyst pellets. Given that packed bed reactors are well known to have poor heat transfer characteristics, this is a critical issue impacting scaleability and commercial viability of the technology. To predict thermal excursions during regeneration, finite element computational models have been built to assist in scaling up oxidative decarbonization of a Pt/TiO2 CFP catalyst (0.5 mm spheres) from a bench scale packed bed with 100 g of catalyst to a pilot scale packed bed with 2 kg of catalyst and internal cooling tubes. Based on transient measurements of outlet temperature and effluent CO2 concentration, and using an assumed coke profile and activation energy, this paper demonstrates that specific combinations of effective thermal conductivity and wall heat transfer coefficient can fit bench scale oxidative regeneration data equally well. For the upscaled 2 kg bed, four bench-scale “best fit” parameter pairs give different predictions for location and magnitude of thermal excursions, with the maximum computed bed temperature gradients ranging from 30 °C cm-1 to as high as 3000 °C cm-1. The larger the fraction of heat removal by conduction through the cooling tubes, the greater the differences between the parameter pairs. The modelling results presented in this paper cast doubt on the industrial viability of the proposed combination of catalyst, bed and regeneration process, and point to the need for alternate reactor designs. However, there is considerable uncertainly in some of the key model parameters. The reliability of model predictions can be increased by adding more temperature measurements at key bed locations, testing additional variations in process conditions, performing careful bed dissections to determine the true coke profile, and perhaps most importantly, directly measuring the effective thermal conductivity of the catalyst pellets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate prediction of carbon dioxide capture by deep eutectic solvents using quantum chemistry and a neural network

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion are a significant source of greenhouse gas, contributing in a major way to global warming and climate change. Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration is gaining much attention as a potential method for controlling these greenhouse gas emissions. Among the environmentally friendly solvents, deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have demonstrated the potential capability for carbon capture. To establish a theoretical framework for DES activity, thermodynamics modeling and solubility predictions are significant factors to anticipate and understand the system behavior. Here, in this study, we combine the COSMO-RS model with machine learning techniques to predict the solubility of CO 2 in various deep eutectic solvents. A comprehensive data set was established comprising 1973 CO 2 solubility data points in 132 different DESs at a variety of temperatures, pressures, and DES molar ratios. This data set was then utilized for the further verification and development of the COSMO-RS model. The CO 2 solubility (ln(x CO 2 )) in DESs calculated with the COSMO-RS model differs significantly from the experiment with an average absolute relative deviation (AARD) of 23.4%. A multilinear regression model was developed using the COSMO-RS predicted solubility and a temperature-pressure dependent parameter, which improved the AARD to 12%. Finally, a machine learning model using COSMO-RS-derived features was developed based on an artificial neural network algorithm. The results are in excellent agreement with the experimental CO 2 solubilities, with an AARD of only 2.72%. The ML model will be a potentially useful tool for the design and selection of DESs for CO 2 capture and utilization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A graph neural network-state predictive information bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) approach for learning molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

Molecular dynamics simulations offer detailed insights into atomic motions but face timescale limitations. Enhanced sampling methods have addressed these challenges but even with machine learning, they often rely on pre-selected expert-based features. Here, in this work, we present a Graph Neural Network-State Predictive Information Bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) framework, which combines graph neural networks and the state predictive information bottleneck to automatically learn low-dimensional representations directly from atomic coordinates. Tested on three benchmark systems, our approach predicts essential structural, thermodynamic and kinetic information for slow processes, demonstrating robustness across diverse systems. The method shows promise for complex systems, enabling effective enhanced sampling without requiring pre-defined reaction coordinates or input features.

Zou, Ziyue↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computing chemical potentials with machine-learning-accelerated simulations to accurately predict thermodynamic properties of molten salts

The successful design and deployment of next-generation nuclear technologies heavily rely on thermodynamic data for relevant molten salt systems. However, the lack of accurate force fields and efficient methods has limited the quality of thermodynamic predictions from atomistic simulations. Here we propose an efficient free energy framework for computing chemical potentials, which is the central free energy quantity behind many thermodynamic properties. We accelerate our simulations without sacrificing accuracy by using machine learning interatomic potentials trained on density functional theory (DFT) data. Using lithium chloride as our model system, we compute chemical potentials with DFT-accuracy for solid and liquid phases by transmuting ions into noninteracting particles. Notably, in the liquid phase, we demonstrate consistency whether we transmute one ion pair or the entire system into ideal gas particles. By locating the temperature where the chemical potential of solid and liquid phases cross, we predict a melting point of 880 ± 18 K for lithium chloride, which is remarkably close to the experimental value of 883 K. With this successful demonstration, we lay the foundation for high-throughput thermodynamic predictions of many properties that can be derived from the chemical potentials of the minority and majority components in molten salts.

Gibson, Luke D. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2022

TDCOSMO. IX. Systematic comparison between lens modelling software programs: time delay prediction for WGD 2038-4008

The importance of alternative methods for measuring the Hubble constant, such as time-delay cosmography, is highlighted by the recent Hubble tension. It is paramount to thoroughly investigate and rule out systematic biases in all measurement methods before we can accept new physics as the source of this tension. In this study, we perform a check for systematic biases in the lens modelling procedure of time-delay cosmography by comparing independent and blind time-delay predictions of the system WGD 2038-4008 from two teams using two different software programs: GLEE and LENSTRONOMY. The predicted time delays from the two teams incorporate the stellar kinematics of the deflector and the external convergence from line-of-sight structures. The un-blinded time-delay predictions from the two teams agree within 1.2σ, implying that once the time delay is measured the inferred Hubble constant will also be mutually consistent. However, there is a ~4σ discrepancy between the power-law model slope and external shear, which is a significant discrepancy at the level of lens models before the stellar kinematics and the external convergence are incorporated. We identify the difference in the reconstructed point spread function (PSF) to be the source of this discrepancy. When the same reconstructed PSF was used by both teams, we achieved excellent agreement, within ~0.6σ<, indicating that potential systematics stemming from source reconstruction algorithms and investigator choices are well under control. We recommend that future studies supersample the PSF as needed and marginalize over multiple algorithms or realizations for the PSF reconstruction to mitigate the systematics associated with the PSF. A future study will measure the time delays of the system WGD 2038-4008 and infer the Hubble constant based on our mass models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning prediction of self-diffusion in Lennard-Jones fluids

In this work, different machine learning (ML) methods were explored for the prediction of self-diffusion in Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluids. Using a database of diffusion constants obtained from the molecular dynamics simulation literature, multiple Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Net (ANN) regression models were developed and characterized. The role and improved performance of feature engineering coupled to the RF model development was also addressed. The performance of these different ML models was evaluated by comparing the prediction error to an existing empirical relationship used to describe LJ fluid diffusion. It was found that the ANN regression models provided superior prediction of diffusion in comparison to the existing empirical relationships.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Study of self-interaction errors in density functional predictions of dipole polarizabilities and ionization energies of water clusters using Perdew-Zunger and locally scaled self-interaction corrected methods

Here, we studied the effects of self-interaction error (SIE) on the static dipole polarizabilities of water clusters modelled with three increasingly sophisticated, non-empirical density functional approximations (DFAs), viz. the local spin density approximation (LDA), the Perdew-Burke-Ernzherof (PBE) generalized-gradient approximation (GGA), and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA, using the Perdew-Zunger self-interaction-correction (PZ-SIC) energy functional in the Fermi-Lowdin orbital SIC (FLO-SIC) framework. Our results show that while all three DFAs overestimate the cluster polarizabilities, the description systematically improves from LDA to PBE to SCAN. The self-correlation free SCAN predicts polarizabilities quite accurately with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.58 Bohr 3 with respect to coupled cluster singles and doubles (CCSD) values. Removing SIE using PZ-SIC correctly reduces the DFA polarizabilities, but over-corrects, resulting in underestimated polarizabilities in SIC-LDA, -PBE, and -SCAN. Finally, we applied a recently proposed local-scaling SIC (LSIC) method using a quasi self-consistent scheme and using the kinetic energy density ratio as an iso-orbital indicator. The results show that the LSIC polarizabilities are in excellent agreement with mean absolute error of 0.08 Bohr 3 for LSIC-LDA and 0.06 Bohr 3 for LSIC-PBE with most recent CCSD polarizabilities. Likewise, the ionization energy estimates as an absolute of highest occupied energy eigenvalue predicted by LSIC are also in excellent agreement with CCSD(T) ionization energies with MAE of 0.4 eV for LSIC-LDA and 0.04 eV for LSIC-PBE. The LSIC-LDA predictions of ionization energies are comparable to the reported GW ionization energies while the LSIC-PBE ionization energies are more accurate than reported GW results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning prediction of electron density and temperature from He I line ratios

We propose to utilize machine learning to predict the electron density, ne, and temperature, T e , from He I line intensity ratios. In this approach, training data consist of measured He I line ratios as input and ne and T e measured using other diagnostic(s) as desired output, which is a Langmuir probe in our study. Support vector machine regression analysis is, then, performed with the training data to develop a predictive model for n e and T e , separately. It is confirmed that n e and T e predicted using the developed models agree well with those from the Langmuir probe in the ranges of 0.28 × 10 18 ≤ n e (m -3 ) ≤ 3.8 × 10 18 and 3.2 ≤ T e (eV) ≤ 7.5. The developed models are, further, examined with an evaluation data, which are not included in the training data, and are found to well reproduce absolute values and radial profiles of probe-measured n e and T e .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward the predictive discovery of ambipolarly dopable ultra-wide-band-gap semiconductors: The case of rutile GeO 2

Ultrawide-band-gap (UWBG) semiconductors are promising for fast, compact, and energy-efficient power-electronics devices. Their wider band gaps result in higher breakdown electric fields that enable high-power switching with a lower energy loss. Yet, the leading UWBG semiconductors suffer from intrinsic materials' limitations with regard to their doping asymmetry that impedes their adoption in CMOS technology. Improvements in the ambipolar doping of UWBG materials will enable a wider range of applications in power electronics as well as deep-UV optoelectronics. These advances can be accomplished through theoretical insights on the limitations of current UWBG materials coupled with the computational prediction and experimental demonstration of alternative UWBG semiconductor materials with improved doping and transport properties. As an example, we discuss the case of rutile GeO2 (r-GeO 2 ), a water-insoluble GeO 2 polytype, which is theoretically predicted to combine an ultra-wide gap with ambipolar dopability, high carrier mobilities, and a higher thermal conductivity than β-Ga 2 O 3 . The subsequent realization of single-crystalline r-GeO 2 thin films by molecular beam epitaxy provides the opportunity to realize r-GeO 2 for electronic applications. Future efforts toward the predictive discovery and design of new UWBG semiconductors include advances in first-principles theory and high-performance computing software, as well as the demonstration of controlled doping in high-quality thin films with lower dislocation densities and optimized film properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗