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DOE OSTI2023

Dispatch analysis of flexible power operation with multi-unit small modular reactors

The relevance of nuclear power plant flexible power operation (FPO) is rising due to increased penetration of variable renewables. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) such as NuScale are envisaged to have multiple units on one site. This provides opportunities for coordinating FPO between units, but also introduces challenges as common services (e.g., refueling equipment) must be shared between units and fuel loadings may be standardized. It is therefore important to quantify whether FPO with SMRs is economically beneficial. Here, this paper quantifies the economics of FPO on different timescales to analyze refueling outages of such multi-unit SMRs. A 24-h price-taker profit maximization of SMR operation is first solved considering revenues from wholesale power and ancillary service (AS) markets. The results are then used to find the most profitable operation strategy over several years for multiple units at the site accounting for the physics and materials limits on NPP operation, including refueling outages. Results show a small but appreciable participation of nuclear into AS, contributing 4% of revenues. Due to the longer fuel cycle, over a decade of operation the units’ refueling outages drifted by 3 months, ultimately leading to refueling during summer.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data assimilation in operator algebras

We develop an algebraic framework for sequential data assimilation of partially observed dynamical systems. In this framework, Bayesian data assimilation is embedded in a nonabelian operator algebra, which provides a representation of observables by multiplication operators and probability densities by density operators (quantum states). In the algebraic approach, the forecast step of data assimilation is represented by a quantum operation induced by the Koopman operator of the dynamical system. Moreover, the analysis step is described by a quantum effect, which generalizes the Bayesian observational update rule. Projecting this formulation to finite-dimensional matrix algebras leads to computational schemes that are i) automatically positivity-preserving and ii) amenable to consistent data-driven approximation using kernel methods for machine learning. Moreover, these methods are natural candidates for implementation on quantum computers. Applications to the Lorenz 96 multiscale system and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in a climate model show promising results in terms of forecast skill and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor Operated Valves 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-operated valves (MOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trend was identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year). The following decreasing trends were identified for MOVs for the most recent 10-year period: • Low-demand MOV FTOC failure probability • Low-demand MOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Air Operated Valves 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of air operated valves (AOVs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The AOV failure modes considered are fail to open or close (FTOC), fail to operate or control (FTOP), and spurious operation (SO). The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for AOVs for the most recent 10 year period: • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOC demands (demands per reactor year) • High demand AOV frequency of FTOC demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for AOVs for the most recent 10 year period: • Low demand AOV FTOC failure probability • Low demand AOV FTOP failure rate • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOC events (failures per reactor year) • Low demand AOV frequency of FTOP events.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational Resilience of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated-Energy Microgrids

The increasing prevalence and severity of wildfires, severe storms, and cyberattacks is driving the introduction of numerous microgrids to improve resilience locally. While distributed energy resources (DERs), such as small-scale wind and solar photovoltaics with storage, will be major components in future microgrids, today, the majority of microgrids are backed up with fossil-fuel-based generators. Small modular reactors (SMRs) can form synergistic mix with DERs due to their ability to provide baseload and flexible power. The heat produced by SMRs can also fulfill the heating needs of microgrid consumers. This paper discusses an operational scheme based on distributed control of flexible power assets to strengthen the operational resilience of SMR-DER integrated-energy microgrids. A framework is developed to assess the operational resilience of SMR-DER microgrids in terms of system adaptive real-power capacity quantified as a response area metric (RAM). Month-long simulation results are shown with a microgrid developed in a modified Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)-30 bus system. The RAM values calculated along the operational simulation reflect the system resilience in real time and can be used to supervise the microgrid operation and reactor’s autonomous control.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Hyper-Spectral Networking Concept of Operations and Future Air Traffic Management Simulations

The NASA sponsored Hyper-Spectral Communications and Networking for Air Traffic Management (ATM) (HSCNA) project is conducting research to improve the operational efficiency of the future National Airspace System (NAS) through diverse and secure multi-band, multi-mode, and millimeter-wave (mmWave) wireless links. Worldwide growth of air transportation and the coming of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will increase air traffic density and complexity. Safe coordination of aircraft will require more capable technologies for communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS). The HSCNA project will provide a foundation for technology and operational concepts to accommodate a significantly greater number of networked aircraft. This paper describes two of the HSCNA projects technical challenges. The first technical challenge is to develop a multi-band networking concept of operations (ConOps) for use in multiple phases of flight and all communication link types. This ConOps will integrate the advanced technologies explored by the HSCNA project and future operational concepts into a harmonized vision of future NAS communications and networking. The second technical challenge discussed is to conduct simulations of future ATM operations using multi-bandmulti-mode networking and technologies. Large-scale simulations will assess the impact, compared to todays system, of the new and integrated networks and technologies under future air traffic demand.

communication link modeling↗

NASA NTRS2023

Strategic Deconfliction of Small Unmanned Aircraft Using Operational Volume Blocks at Crossing Waypoints

In this research, first, analytical case studies are performed to understand the parameters on which the minimum temporal separation between unmanned aircraft at crossing waypoints is dependent for enabling strategic deconfliction. The analytical expressions show that the minimum temporal separation is a function of the length and width of operational volume blocks, the relative positions of the active operational volume blocks, groundspeed of unmanned aircraft, and the incoming crossing angle. Next, the parametric study shows that the impact of the incoming crossing angle on the minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint increases with an increase in the width of the operational volume blocks. Finally, simulation studies are performed to understand the impact of operational volume block sizing, on-demand departure rate, minimum departure time separation, and the incoming crossing angle on the average ground delay of unmanned aircraft traveling on two routes with a single crossing waypoint and identical on-demand departure rate. Each unmanned aircraft’s estimated time of arrival at a crossing waypoint is adjusted by introducing a ground delay in departure time; no other controls (e.g., speed adjustments) are applied for strategic deconfliction. Simulation studies show that the impact of the minimum temporal separation at a crossing waypoint on the average ground delay of flights is negligible if the minimum departure time separation is at least two times the minimum temporal separation. Therefore, with an increase in minimum departure time separation at a depot, the impact of increased length of operational volume blocks enclosing the crossing waypoint on the ground delay is offset to an extent.

Operational intent↗

NASA NTRS2023

Strategic Deconfliction of Small Unmanned Aircraft Using Operational Volume Blocks at Crossing Waypoints

Operational Intent↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rejection of low-molecular weight neutral organics is highly sensitive to reverse osmosis system design and operation

A computational model was developed to investigate the significance of system design and operating conditions on the rejection of neutral, low-MW organics by reverse osmosis for potable reuse. Here, the model demonstrated that the decrease in local rejection as net driving pressure decreases is substantially greater for moderately rejected compounds than for highly rejected compounds. At recovery values less than 70%, the local permeate concentration can exceed the pressure vessel feed concentration for moderately rejected compounds. System-level rejection of moderately rejected compounds is likewise substantially more sensitive to operating conditions than highly rejected compounds. The findings highlight a drawback of relying on rejection results from bench-scale testing that operates at low recovery, which invariably has higher rejection than full-scale systems operating at similar pressure. The analysis demonstrates a trade-off in which the low-pressure, high-recovery operation desired for potable reuse systems can be detrimental to the removal of low-MW neutral organics. The removal of low-MW neutral organics can be improved if organics rejection is explicitly evaluated during the design process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Operator Theoretic Methods for Phase Space Learning and Analysis

This paper uses data-driven operator theoretic approaches to explore the global phase space of a dynamical system. In this work, we defined conditions for discovering new invariant subspaces in the state space of a dynamical system starting from an invariant subspace based on the spectral properties of the Koopman operator. When the system evolution is known locally in several invariant subspaces in the state space of a dynamical system, a phase space stitching result is derived that yields the global Koopman operator. Additionally, in the case of equivariant systems, a phase space stitching result is developed to identify the global Koopman operator using the symmetry properties between the invariant subspaces of the dynamical system and time-series data from any one of the invariant subspaces. Finally, these results are extended to topologically conjugate dynamical systems; in particular, the relation between the Koopman tuple of topologically conjugate systems is established. The proposed results are demonstrated on several second-order nonlinear dynamical systems including a bistable toggle switch. Our method elucidates a strategy for designing discovery experiments: experiment execution can be done in many steps, and models from different invariant subspaces can be combined to approximate the global Koopman operator.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging operator learning to accelerate convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method

We propose a new deflation strategy to accelerate the convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method for solving parametric large-scale linear systems of equations. Unlike traditional deflation techniques that rely on eigenvector approximations or recycled Krylov subspaces, we generate the deflation subspaces using operator learning, specifically the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet). To this aim, we introduce two complementary approaches for assembling the deflation operators. The first approach approximates near-null space vectors of the discrete PDE operator using the basis functions learned by the DeepONet. The second approach directly leverages solutions predicted by the DeepONet. To further enhance convergence, we also propose several strategies for prescribing the sparsity pattern of the deflation operator. Here, a comprehensive set of numerical experiments encompassing steady-state, time-dependent, scalar, and vector-valued problems posed on both structured and unstructured geometries is presented and demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed DeepONet-based deflated PCG method, as well as its generalization across a wide range of model parameters and problem resolutions.

Deflation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operation-adversarial scenario generation

This paper proposes a modified conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) model to generate net load scenarios for power systems that are statistically credible, conditioned by given labels (e.g., seasons), and, at the same time, “stressful” to the system operations and dispatch decisions. The measure of stress used in this paper is based on the operating cost increases due to net load changes. The proposed operation-adversarial cGAN (OA-cGAN) internalizes a DC optimal power flow model and seeks to maximize the operating cost and achieve a worst-case data generation. The training and testing stages employed in the proposed OA-cGAN use historical day-ahead net load forecast errors and has been implemented for the realistic NYISO 11-zone system. In conclusion, our numerical experiments demonstrate that the generated operation-adversarial forecast errors lead to more cost-effective and reliable dispatch decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of the burning-plasma operational space in ITER by using a control-oriented core-SOL-divertor model

In future tokamaks, the control of burning plasmas will require careful regulation of the plasma density and temperature. Along with the design of effective burn-control systems, understanding how the fusion power varies in the density-temperature space is vital for the operation of fusion power plants. Here in this work, the steady-state operational space of ITER is studied using a control-oriented core-plasma model coupled to a two-point model of the scrape-off-layer (SOL) and divertor regions. The two models are coupled through the exchange of input-output parameters. The deuterium and tritium recycling from the wall are output parameters of the SOL-divertor model that are used as input parameters in the core-plasma density balance. Furthermore, the separatrix temperature, which is an output parameter of the SOL-divertor model, is incorporated into the radial core-plasma temperature profiles. Therefore, the temperature-dependent power balance of the plasma core is intimately linked to the SOL-divertor model. Both the power entering the SOL from the core, as determined by the core-plasma power balance, and the separatrix density, as dictated by the core-plasma density balance, are input parameters to the SOL-divertor model. They are control knobs in the SOL-divertor model that can be regulated using the core-plasma actuators: auxiliary power and pellet injection. There are various operational limitations, such as the saturation of the aforementioned actuators, that will prevent ITER from accessing certain high-fusion plasma regimes. The achievable tritium concentration in the fueling lines and the maximum sustainable heat load on the divertor will impose further restrictions. By accounting for these limitations, the ITER operational space is computed based on the coupled core-SOL-divertor model and visualized using Plasma Operation Contour (POPCON) plots that map performance metrics, such as the fusion to auxiliary power ratio, over the density-temperature space. Comparisons are drawn between plasmas with different recycling, confinement, and SOL-divertor conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Continuous-time look-ahead flexible ramp scheduling in real-time operation

This paper develops a novel continuous-time look-ahead optimization model for co-optimizing balancing energy and flexible ramp products in real-time power systems operation. In addition, a continuous-time day-ahead operation model is developed to commit and schedule an adequate subset of generating units for providing balancing energy and ramping requirements in real-time operation. The up and down flexible ramp products are defined as continuous-time decision trajectories that continuously supply the real-time up and down ramping requirements of the system. The deliverability of flexible ramp products is secured through reserving the respective power requirements in generation capacity constraints of generating units. A function space solution method is proposed to reduce the dimensionality of day-ahead and real-time models through projecting them into finite-dimensional function spaces spanned by Bernstein polynomials, where the real-time operation decisions are modeled with a higher accuracy level than day-ahead decisions. Simulations are conducted on the IEEE-RTS system using CAISO load data, and the numerical results showcase the effectiveness of the proposed model in supplying the energy and flexible ramp requirements and avoiding ramping scarcity in the system, while reducing the operation costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗