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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Historical sensible-heat-flux variations key to predicting future hydrologic sensitivity

Under anthropogenic climate change (CC), the global hydrological cycle intensifies at a rate known as hydrologic sensitivity (HS). Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit substantial uncertainty in HS. Past work suggests that another form of HS, derived from internal climate variability (IV), is useful for constraining this uncertainty. However, these two forms of HS are weakly related. Here we show that decomposing HS under both CC and IV, based on the global energy budget, provides insight into the likely range of future HS. We find that sensible heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is not accounted for in the atmospheric energy budget under IV, masking the connection between HS under IV and CC. Removing this term, a closer relationship emerges. We use observations in conjunction with this relationship to suggest an upward shift in the likely range of future HS (66% confidence interval: 2.00–2.36 W m -2 K -1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving GCM Predictability of Mixed-Phase Clouds and Aerosol Interactions at High Latitudes with ARM Observations

The goal of this project is to improve the predictability of mixed-phase clouds and aerosol interactions in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) through comparison with the ARM observations. There are three main objectives of the proposed study: (1) Improve the representation of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds; (2) Test the performance of ice microphysics in CESM-CAM6 with the ARM observations in northern and southern high latitudes; and (3) Examine mixed-phase cloud microphysics-aerosol-turbulence-radiation interactions in CESM-CAM6. In this project, we have (1) Improved the representation of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds in CESM-CAM6 by implementing the marine organic aerosol (MOA) and treating the ice nucleating particles (INPs) from MOA and its impacts on mixed-phase clouds. We made a first attempt to represent different secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms in a GCM (CESM2-CAM6). We found that misrepresentation of these ice formation processes in global climate models (GCMs) leads to too weak negative cloud feedback over the Southern Ocean (SO) and too high climate sensitivity in the models. In addition to ice formation processes, we improved the treatment of ice depositional growth through the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process by considering the subgrid heterogeneous distributions between liquid droplets and ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds; (2) Tested the performance of our improved representations of ice microphysics with the ARM observations at high latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Worldwide Population Genomics Reveal Long-Term Stability of the Mitochondrial Genome Architecture in a Keystone Marine Plant

Mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) of flowering plants are composed of multiple chromosomes. Recombination within and between the mitochondrial chromosomes may generate diverse DNA molecules termed isoforms. The isoform copy number and composition can be dynamic within and among individual plants due to uneven replication and homologous recombination. Nonetheless, despite their functional importance, the level of mitogenome conservation within species remains understudied. Whether the ontogenetic variation translates to evolution of mitogenome composition over generations is currently unknown. Here we show that the mitogenome composition of the seagrass Zostera marina is conserved among worldwide populations that diverged ca. 350,000 years ago. Using long-read sequencing, we characterized the Z. marina mitochondrial genome and inferred the repertoire of recombination-induced configurations. To characterize the mitochondrial genome architecture worldwide and study its evolution, we examined the mitogenome in Z. marina meristematic region sampled in 16 populations from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Our results reveal a striking similarity in the isoform relative copy number, indicating a high conservation of the mitogenome composition among distantly related populations and within the plant germline, despite a notable variability during individual ontogenesis. Our study supplies a link between observations of dynamic mitogenomes at the level of plant individuals and long-term mitochondrial evolution.

(sub)stoichiometric shifting↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Marine Planktonic Archaea: Then and Now

In 1977, Woese and Fox leveraged molecular phylogenetic analyses of ribosomal RNAs and identified a new microbial domain of life on Earth, the Archaebacteria (now known as Archaea). At the time of their discovery, only one archaebacterial group, the strictly anaerobic methanogens, was known. But soon, other phenotypically unrelated microbial isolates were shown to belong to the Archaea, many originating from extreme habitats, including extreme halophiles, extreme thermophiles, and thermoacidophiles. Since most Archaea seemed to inhabit extreme or strictly anoxic habitats, it came as a surprise in 1992 when two new lineages of archaea were reported to be abundant in oxygen rich, temperate marine coastal waters and the deep ocean. Since that time, studies of marine planktonic archaea have revealed many more surprises, including their unexpected ubiquity, unusual symbiotic associations, unpredicted physiologies and biogeochemistry, and global abundance. In this Perspective, early work conducted on marine planktonic Archaea by my lab group and others is discussed in terms of the relevant historical context, some of the original research motivations, and surprises and discoveries encountered along the way.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Moist Potential Vorticity Model for Midlatitude Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Land

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the midlatitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bones mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate midlatitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Last, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. In conclusion, the model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Intelligent Adaptable Monitoring Package. Final Report

The “Intelligent Adaptable Monitoring Package” project was a four-year effort that demonstrated the feasibility of integrated sensing packages at tidal and wave energy sites. Such integration is generally required by the breadth of sensors required to understand environmental effects at marine energy sites and the operational difficulty of deploying, maintaining, and recovering such sensors. Over the course of the project, the Adaptable Monitoring Package (AMP) was deployed in multiple settings, each corresponding to a project budget period: - Budget Period 1: Demonstration of cabled deployment at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Marine Science Laboratory. The deployment highlighted AMP hardware endurance over a 4-month deployment in a tidally-dominated environment and laid the groundwork for machine learning algorithms to detect and classify targets present in active sonar data. - Budget Period 2: Demonstration of an autonomous deployment at PacWave South off the coast of Newport, Oregon. The deployment highlighted the stability of AMP hardware and software, with the autonomous package collecting data on a duty cycle over a 1.5-month deployment. - Budget Period 3: Demonstration of an autonomous deployment powered by a wave energy converter at the U.S. Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site. The deployment highlighted the potential of wave energy to power ocean observatories and led to the development of machine learning algorithms to detect and classify targets in optical camera data. In aggregate, this project’s greatest success was demonstrating the AMP’s flexibility in a range of deployment scenarios. Each budget period represented a “first of a kind” demonstration of integrated instrumentation – cabled AMP, autonomous AMP, wave-energy powered AMP – and each deployment helped to identify and set goals for the next. Further, despite the exploratory nature of these deployments, each one achieved high system up-time and proved that flexible integration of multiple sensors in a single package represents a viable strategy for marine energy environmental monitoring. The key lessons learned from the project are: - Without continuous power, either from a shore cable or in situ source, many of the benefits of integration are lost (If continuous power is not available, the ability to detect rare events is lost, as is the ability to minimize the risk of behavioral changes through adaptive sensing. However, even on a duty cycle, there is still value in being able to acquire synchronous data from multiple sensors.); and - Observations from a moving platform present substantially greater data processing challenges than those from stationary platforms. Finally, these deployments also demonstrate an important truth: successful integration alone does not guarantee that relevant data are collected. To grow the knowledge base about environmental interactions with marine energy converters, integrated systems, like the AMP, need to include the right sensor mix and connect the data pipelines to effective processing algorithms. These deployments establish a strong foundation for future collaborations with the environmental research community: not only to understand the environmental effects of marine energy, but also to improve our general ability to study life in the sea.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Evolution Modulated by Atlantic Forcing

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a strong influence on tropical Atlantic variability, but it is also affected by Atlantic forcing. Previous research has proposed three Atlantic precursors for ENSO: the North tropical Atlantic, the equatorial Atlantic, and the entire tropical Atlantic. However, the relative importance of these Atlantic precursors for ENSO remains unclear. Here, we present evidence from a set of multimodel partial ocean assimilation experiments that equatorial Atlantic cooling is the main contributor for weakening equatorial zonal winds in the Indo-Pacific sector and subsequent ocean warming in the tropical Pacific. Opposite tendencies occur for a warmer equatorial Atlantic. The equatorial Atlantic affects the interbasin climate seesaw between the Atlantic and Pacific through an atmospheric zonal Wavenumber 1 pattern. However, model mean state biases and systematic errors prevent a precise assessment of the response times for the equatorial Pacific trade winds to Atlantic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parameterization of the Elevated Convection With a Unified Convection Scheme (UNICON) and Its Impacts on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation

To improve the simulation of nocturnal precipitation, we develop a parameterization for the elevated convection that is launched from the level of maximum grid-mean moist static energy, when grid-mean vertical flow is upward at the launching interface. The parameterized elevated convection is forced by both cold pool-driven and partially resolved external mesoscale organized flows. Properties of the external mesoscale flow are estimated from grid-mean vertical velocity and three dimensional advection tendencies of temperature and moisture. The new parameterization is implemented into a unified convection scheme (UNICON) and tested for both the single-column case at the Southern Great Plain (SGP) site in US and in global simulations. At the SGP site, the parameterized elevated convection strengthens nocturnal convection, increases nocturnal precipitation, and better simulates the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation. It appears that the elevated and surface-based convections interact with each other by stabilizing the atmospheric column, which affects subsequent convection. Global simulation shows that the elevated convection mostly occurs over the continents during the night, and also over the oceanic mid-latitude warm air advection and storm track regions during summer. Without degrading global mean climate, the elevated convection improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation in the mid-US but simulates somewhat strong nocturnal precipitation in northeastern Asia. It seems that a key to simulate observed nocturnal precipitation is to appropriately parameterize the impacts of external organized flow on the elevated convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatio–Temporal Coarse–Graining Decomposition of the Global Ocean Geostrophic Kinetic Energy

We expand on a recent determination of the first global energy spectrum of the ocean’s surface geostrophic circulation using a coarse-graining (CG) method. We compare spectra from CG to those from spherical harmonics by treating land in a manner consistent with the boundary conditions. While the two methods yield qualitatively consistent domain-averaged results, spherical harmonics spectra are too noisy at gyre-scales (> 1000 km). More importantly, spherical harmonics are inherently global and cannot provide local information connecting scales with currents geographically. CG shows that the extra-tropics mesoscales (100–500 km) have a root-mean-square (rms) velocity of ~15 cm/s, which increases to ~30–40 cm/s locally in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and to ~16–28 cm/s in the ACC. There is notable hemispheric asymmetry in mesoscale energy-per-area, which is higher in the north due to continental boundaries. We estimate that ≈25–50% of total geostrophic energy is at scales smaller than 100 km, and is un(der)-resolved by pre-SWOT satellite products. Spectra of the time-mean circulation show that most of its energy (up to 70%) resides in stationary eddies with characteristic scales smaller than (< 500 km). This highlights the preponderance of ‘standing’ small-scale structures in the global ocean due to the temporally coherent forcing by boundaries. By coarse-graining in space and time, we compute the first spatio-temporal global spectrum of geostrophic circulation from AVISO and NEMO. These spectra show that every length-scale evolves over a wide range of time-scales with a consistent peak at ≈200 km and ≈2–3 weeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nutrient supply controls the linkage between species abundance and ecological interactions in marine bacterial communities

Nutrient scarcity is pervasive for natural microbial communities, affecting species reproduction and co-existence. However, it remains unclear whether there are general rules of how microbial species abundances are shaped by biotic and abiotic factors. Here we show that the ribosomal RNA gene operon (rrn) copy number, a genomic trait related to bacterial growth rate and nutrient demand, decreases from the abundant to the rare biosphere in the nutrient-rich coastal sediment but exhibits the opposite pattern in the nutrient-scarce pelagic zone of the global ocean. Both patterns are underlain by positive correlations between community-level rrn copy number and nutrients. Furthermore, inter-species co-exclusion inferred by negative network associations is observed more in coastal sediment than in ocean water samples. Nutrient manipulation experiments yield effects of nutrient availability on rrn copy numbers and network associations that are consistent with our field observations. Based on these results, we propose a “hunger games” hypothesis to define microbial species abundance rules using the rrn copy number, ecological interaction, and nutrient availability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation Variability Amplitude across Time Scales

Here, objective performance metrics that measure precipitation variability across time scales from subdaily to interannual are presented and applied to Historical simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. Three satellite-based precipitation estimates (IMERG, TRMM, and CMORPH) are used as reference data. We apply two independent methods to estimate temporal variability of precipitation and compare the consistency in their results. The first method is derived from power spectra analysis of 3-hourly precipitation, measuring forced variability by solar insolation (diurnal and annual cycles) and internal variability at different time scales (subdaily, synoptic, subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual). The second method is based on time averaging and facilitates estimating the seasonality of subdaily variability. Supporting the robustness of our metric, we find a near equivalence between the results obtained from the two methods when examining simulated-to-observed ratios over large domains (global, tropics, extratropics, land, or ocean). Additionally, we demonstrate that our model evaluation is not very sensitive to the discrepancies between observations. Our results reveal that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in general overestimate the forced variability while they underestimate the internal variability, especially in the tropical ocean and higher-frequency variability. The underestimation of subdaily variability is consistent across different seasons. The internal variability is overall improved in CMIP6, but remains underestimated, and there is little evidence of improvement in forced variability. Increased horizontal resolution results in some improvement of internal variability at subdaily and synoptic time scales, but not at longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Technique for Estimating Liquid Droplet Diameter and Liquid Water Content in Stratocumulus Clouds Using Radar and Lidar Measurements

This paper describes a technique for estimating the liquid water content (LWC) and a characteristic particle diameter in stratocumulus clouds using radar and lidar observations. The uncertainty in LWC estimate from radar and lidar measurements is significantly reduced once the characteristic particle diameter is known. The technique is independent of the drop size distribution. It is applicable for a broad range of W-band reflectivity Z between -30 and 0 dBZ and all values of lidar backscatter β observations. No partitioning of cloud or drizzle is required on the basis of an arbitrary threshold of Z as in prior studies. A method for estimating droplet diameter and LWC was derived from the electromagnetic simulations of radar and lidar observations. In situ stratocumulus cloud and drizzle probe spectra were input to the electromagnetic simulation. The retrieved droplet diameter and LWC were validated using in situ measurements from the southeastern Pacific Ocean. The retrieval method was applied to radar and lidar measurements from the northeastern Pacific. Uncertainty in the retrieved droplet diameter and LWC that are due to the measurement errors in radar and lidar backscatter measurements are 7% and 14%, respectively. The retrieved LWC was validated using the concurrent G-band radiometer estimates of the liquid water path.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗