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DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Tool Development and Validation for Solar Industry Process Heat Using Particle Thermal Energy Storage

U.S. industry sectors used 26.2 quadrillion Btu and accounted for 33% of total energy consumption in 2021 according to the Energy Information Agency. Industrial process heat accounts for 70% of industrial energy use with application temperatures ranging from 60 degrees -1100 degrees C. Industry processes, heavily relying on fossil fuels of cheap coal or natural gas, differ widely in operating conditions and load requirements which makes them difficult to standardize and imposes great challenges in decarbonization. Industry processes require reliable energy supply and vary widely in temperature ranges. Storing energy from renewable sources is necessary to improve reliability and to mitigate renewable intermittency when replacing carbon fuel-based heat supplies to achieve energy savings and reduce emissions. To this end, we have developed a particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) technology using low-cost and highly stable silica sand as a storage medium. The economic and performance-based analysis is key for renewable energy sources to reliably supply industry process heat and ultimately displace fossil fuels for decarbonization. The diversified industrial processes need case-by-case analysis and design. Therefore, an adaptive modeling tool is key for renewable power with energy storage to meet industry demands. Thus, a modeling tool to simulate a solar industry process heat system using the particle TES has been developed using the object-oriented equation-based language Modelica and the commercial platform of Modelon Impact. The Modelica-based software tool provides a general simulation environment for the design of reliable solar energy sources integrated with TES for various industrial process applications at different temperatures for economic competence with fossil fuels such as coal and natural gases. It uses both customized and standard component modeling modules in Modelon libraries for the flexibility to be adapted to a specific energy demand application. The particle TES system establishes a uniform energy supply platform with an efficient heat exchanger and particle thermal energy reservoir integrated with renewable powers. The particle TES system can provide a wide temperature range and can have a large storage temperature difference that increases storage energy density; therefore, it can be an adaptable energy storage system integrated with renewable power to supply 24/7 heat for industry decarbonization.

concentrated solar thermal↗

DOE OSTI2022

Desalinating a Real Hyper-Saline Pre-Treated Produced Water via Direct-Heat Vacuum Membrane Distillation

Membrane distillation (MD) is an emerging thermal desalination technology capable of desalinating waters of any salinity. During typical MD processes, the saline feedwater is heated and acts as the thermal energy carrier; however, temperature polarization (as well as thermal energy loss) contributes to low distillate fluxes, low single-pass water recovery and poor thermal efficiency. An alternative approach is to integrate an extra thermal energy carrier as part of the membrane and/or module assembly, which can channel externally provided heat directly to the membrane-feedwater interface and/or along the feed channel length. This direct-heat delivery has been demonstrated to increase single-pass water recovery and enhance the overall thermal efficiency. We developed a bench-scale direct-heated vacuum MD (DHVMD) process to desalinate pre-treated oil and gas "produced water" with an initial total dissolved solids of 115,500 ppm at a feed temperature ranging between 24 and 32 degrees C. We evaluated both water flux and specific energy consumption (SEC) as a function of water recovery. The system achieved a 50% water recovery without significant scaling, with an average flux >6 kg m-2 hr-1 and a SEC as low as 2,530 kJ kg-1. The major species of mineral scales (i.e., NaCl, CaSO4, and SrSO4) that limited the water recovery to 68% were modeled in terms of thermodynamics and identified by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. In addition, we further developed and employed a physics-based process model to estimate temperature, salinity, water transport and energy flows for full-scale vacuum MD and DHVMD modules. Model results show that a direct-heat input rate of 3,600 W can increase single-pass water recovery from 2.1% to 3.1% while lowering the thermal SEC from 7,800 kJ kg-1 to 6,517 kJ kg-1 in an unoptimized module. Finally, the scaling up potential of DHVMD process is briefly discussed.

brine↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing plasma face component thermal response to rotating 3D magnetic fields for SPARC tokamak

Thermal response simulations of plasma-facing components (PFCs) in the SPARC tokamak, performed with the HEAT code, show that three-dimensional (3D) heat loads resulting from stationary n=1 perturbations require highly radiative scenarios, with up to 95% of the power crossing the separatrix (P SOL ) being radiated, to maintain PFC temperatures within acceptable operational limits, whereas the application of slowly rotating 3D fields substantially reduces the thermal loads. The HEAT module, developed to predict heat loads from non-axisymmetric plasmas, is extended to model time-dependent heat flux patterns generated by rotating 3D fields, and a comprehensive thermal analysis is performed on PFCs subjected to both the maximum and minimum power loads, as well as to rotating heat flux distributions, to evaluate the temperature evolution for varying perturbation amplitudes and rotation frequencies. The extension of this analysis to 3D fields with toroidal mode number n=2 shows that this configuration leads to weaker localized heat flux peaks relative to the n=1 case, enabling safe operation with less than 80% of the power radiated when static 3D fields of low amplitude are applied, while using slowly rotating fields at higher amplitudes. These results indicate that n=2 perturbations are generally less detrimental to divertor power exhaust, emphasizing the strong dependence of divertor power exhaust on the characteristics of the applied 3D fields.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2006

T-Shaped Emitter Metal Structures for HBTs Rigorous Estimation of SNR of a PSK Communication Link Advanced Ka-Band Transceiver With Monopulse Tracking EMI Filters for Low-Temperature Applications Lightweight Electronic Camera for Research on Clouds Pilot Weather Advisor System Waveguide Power-Amplifier Module for 80 to 150 GHz Better Back Contacts for Solar Cells on Flexible Substrates Topics covered include:Tunable, Highly Stable Lasers for Coherent Lidar; Improved Photon-Emission-Microscope System; Program Synthesizes UML Sequence Diagrams; Aspect-Oriented Subprogram Synthesizes UML Sequence Diagrams; Updated Computational Model of Cosmic Rays Near Earth; Software for Alignment of Segments of a Telescope Mirror; Simulation of Dropping of Cargo With Parachutes; DAVE-ML Utility Program; Robust Control for the Mercury Laser Altimeter; Thermally Stable Piezoelectric and Pyroelectric Polymers; Combustion Synthesis of Ca3(PO4)2 Net-Shape Surgical Implants; Stochastic Representation of Chaos Using Terminal Attractors; Two High-Temperature Foil Journal Bearings; Using Plates To Represent Fillets in Finite-Element Modeling; Repairing Chipped Silicide Coatings on Refractory Metal Substrates; Simplified Fabrication of Helical Copper Antennas; Graded-Index "Whispering-Gallery" Optical Microresonators; Optical Profilometers Using Adaptive Signal Processing; Manufacture of Sparse-Spectrum Optical Microresonators; Exact Tuning of High-Q Optical Microresonators by Use of UV; Automation for "Direct-to" Clearances in Air-Traffic Control; Improved Traps for Removing Gases From Coolant Liquids; and Lunar Constellation of Frozen Elliptical Inclined Orbits.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modulation of the seasonal cycle in length-of-day and atmospheric angular momentum

Global warming, by definition, changes the atmospheric temperature field. This temperature change is not expected to be uniform, either geographically, or with height in the atmosphere. By the thermal wind equation. changes in the pole-to-equator temperature gradient will cause changes in the atmospheric zonal winds. Numerous previous studies have shown that observed length-of-day (LOD) variations on time scales of a few days to a few years are largely caused by atmospheric zonal wind fluctuations. In particular, seasonal variations in LOD have been previously shown to be dominantly caused by seasonal variations in the atmospheric zonal winds. Here, observed changes in the strength of seasonal LOD and wind-driven atmospheric angular momentum signals during 1962 to 2000 are analyzed and shown to be significantly correlated with each other and with the Southern Oscillation Index.

length of day↗

NASA NTRS2011

Rad-Hard, Miniaturized, Scalable, High-Voltage Switching Module for Power Applications Rad-Hard, Miniaturized

A paper discusses the successful development of a miniaturized radiation hardened high-voltage switching module operating at 2.5 kV suitable for space application. The high-voltage architecture was designed, fabricated, and tested using a commercial process that uses a unique combination of 0.25 micrometer CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) transistors and high-voltage lateral DMOS (diffusion metal oxide semiconductor) device with high breakdown voltage (greater than 650 V). The high-voltage requirements are achieved by stacking a number of DMOS devices within one module, while two modules can be placed in series to achieve higher voltages. Besides the high-voltage requirements, a second generation prototype is currently being developed to provide improved switching capabilities (rise time and fall time for full range of target voltages and currents), the ability to scale the output voltage to a desired value with good accuracy (few percent) up to 10 kV, to cover a wide range of high-voltage applications. In addition, to ensure miniaturization, long life, and high reliability, the assemblies will require intensive high-voltage electrostatic modeling (optimized E-field distribution throughout the module) to complete the proposed packaging approach and test the applicability of using advanced materials in a space-like environment (temperature and pressure) to help prevent potential arcing and corona due to high field regions. Finally, a single-event effect evaluation would have to be performed and single-event mitigation methods implemented at the design and system level or developed to ensure complete radiation hardness of the module.

Adell, Philippe C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO and its Modulation by Composition Feedbacks

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts the large-scale circulation by altering lower stratospheric meridional temperature gradients which alter the propagation of upward propagating planetary waves. Proposed teleconnections of the QBO include impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, long-term projections of the QBO remain highly uncertain. While recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) show that the amplitude of the QBO weakens robustly among models, changes in QBO period and stability remain highly uncertain. Here we examine the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of ModelE, E2.2 also has a higher model top (0.002 hPa) and employs additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Overall, we find that both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO , the former related to increased lower stratospheric momentum fluxes (associated with convection) and the latter associated partly with a stronger residual mean circulation. Experiments integrated using fully interactive chemistry also reveal that ozone feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of the QBO amplitude response. Finally, integrations using fixed (pre-industrial) sea surface temperatures (SST) show that the QBO amplitude responds differently to rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks, as compared to the QBO period.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗

NASA NTRS2008

Constraints on the Emission and Viewing Geometry of the Transient Anomalous X-ray Pulsar XTE J1810-197

The temporal decay of the flux components of the transient anomalous X-ray pulsar XTE J1 810-197 following its 2002 outburst presents a unique opportunity to probe the emission geometry of a magnetar. Toward this goal, we model the magnitude of the pulsar's modulation in narrow spectral bands over time. Following previous work, we assume that the postoutburst flux is produced in two distinct thermal components arising from a hot spot and a warm concentric ring. We include general relativistic effects on the blackbody spectra due to gravitational redshift and light bending near the stellar surface, which strongly depend on radius. This affects the model fits for the temperature and size of the emission regions. For the hot spot, the observed temporal and energy-dependent pulse modulation is found to require an anisotropic, pencil-beamed radiation pattern. We are able to constrain an allowed range for the angles that the line of sight (psi) and the hot spot pole (xi) make with respect to the spin axis. Within errors, this is defined by the locus of points in the xi-psi plane that lie along the line [xi + beta(R)] [psi + [beta(R)] = const, where beta(R) is a function of the radius R of the star. For a canonical value of R = 12 km, the viewing parameters range from psi = xi = 37deg to (psi, xi) = (85deg, 15deg). We discuss our results in the context of magnetar emission models.

Perna, Rosalba↗

DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Monolithic silicon bolometers

A new type of bolometer detector for the millimeter and submillimeter spectral range is described. The bolometer is constructed of silicon using integrated circuit fabrication techniques. Ion implantation is used to give controlled resistance vs temperature properties as well as extremely low 1/f noise contacts. The devices have been tested between 4.2 and 0.3 K. The best electrical NEP measured is 4 x 10 to the -16th W/Hz to the 1/2 at 0.35 K between 1- and 10-Hz modulation frequency. This device had a detecting area of 0.25 sq cm and a time constant of 20 msec at a bath temperature of 0.35 K.

Downey, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Observation and Modeling of the Solar Transition Region: A Quasi-Static Loops Model with Implications for Heating the Lower Transition Region - 1

We report on observations of the solar atmosphere in several extreme ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet bandpasses obtained by the Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array, a rocket borne spectroheliograph, on flights in 1987, 1991, and 1994, spanning the last solar maximum. Quiet sun emission observed in the 171 A - 175 A bandpass, which includes lines of 0Ov, O vi, Fe ix, and Fe x, has been analyzed to test models of the temperatures and geometries of the structures responsible for this emission. Analyses of intensity variations above the solar limb reveal scale heights consistent with a quiet sun plasma temperature of 500 000 K less than or equal to T(sub e) less than or equal to 800 000 K. Intensity modulations in the quiet sun are observed to occur on a scale comparable to the supergranular scale. The structures responsible for the quiet sun EUV emission are modeled as small quasi-static loops. We find that the emission predicted by loop models with maximum temperatures between 700 000 K and 900 000 K are consistent with our observations. We also present a preliminary comparison of the predictions of our models with observations of diagnostic spectral line ratios obtained from previous observers. We discuss the implications a distribution of loops of the type we model here would have for heating the lower transition region. Finally, in fight of the models we calculate here, we briefly review the current state of knowledge concerning the contributions thermal conduction from coronal (T(sub e) greater than or equal to 10(exp 6) K) and upper transition region (10(exp 5) K less than T(sub e) less than 10(esp 6) K) structures make to lower transition region emission. We argue that the evidence which has lead many authors to conclude that the interface of hotter and cooler plasmas makes a negligible contribution to lower transition region emission is much less compelling in light of recent observations and analyses. We further argue that it is the interface of chromospheric material with structures such as loops that have sub-coronal peak temperatures (i.e. less than 900 000 K) that makes the dominant contribution to lower transition region emission in the quiet sun.

Oluseyi, Hakeem M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Critical Issues for Cu(InGa)Se2 Solar Cells on Flexible Polymer Web

Elemental in-line evaporation on glass substrates has been a viable process for the large-area manufacture of CuInSe2-based photovoltaics, with module efficiencies as high as 12.7% [1]. However, lightweight, flexible CuInSe2-based modules are attractive in a number of applications, such as space power sources. In addition, flexible substrates have an inherent advantage in manufacturability in that they can be deposited in a roll-to-roll configuration allowing continuous, high yield, and ultimately lower cost production. As a result, high-temperature polymers have been used as substrates in depositing CuInSe2 films [2]. Recently, efficiency of 14.1% has been reported for a Cu(InGa)Se2-based solar cell on a polyimide substrate [3]. Both metal foil and polymer webs have been used as substrates for Cu(InGa)Se2-based photovoltaics in a roll-to-roll configuration with reasonable success [4,5]. Both of these substrates do not allow, readily, the incorporation of Na into the Cu(InGa)Se2 film which is necessary for high efficiency devices [3]. In addition, polymer substrates, can not be used at temperatures that are optimum for Cu(InGa)Se2 deposition. However, unlike metal foils, they are electrically insulating, simplifying monolithically-integrated module fabrication and are not a source of impurities diffusing into the growing film. The Institute of Energy Conversion (IEC) has modified its in-line evaporation system [6] from deposition onto glass substrates to roll-to-roll deposition onto polyimide (PI) film in order to investigate key issues in the deposition of large-area Cu(InGa)Se2 films on flexible polymer substrates. This transition presented unexpected challenges that had to be resolved. In this paper, two major problems, spitting from the Cu source and the cracking of Mo back contact film, will be discussed and the solution to each will be presented.

Eser, Erten↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Measured Spectrum Variation on Solar Photovoltaic Efficiencies Worldwide

In photovoltaic power ratings, a single solar spectrum, AM1.5, is the de facto standard for record laboratory efficiencies, commercial module specifications, and performance ratios of solar power plants. More detailed energy analysis that accounts for local spectral irradiance, along with temperature and broadband irradiance, reduces forecast errors to expand the grid utility of solar energy. Here, ground-level measurements of spectral irradiance collected worldwide have been pooled to provide a sampling of geographic, seasonal, and diurnal variation. Applied to nine solar cell types, the resulting divergence in solar cell efficiencies illustrates that a single spectrum is insufficient for comparisons of cells with different spectral responses. Cells with two or more junctions tend to have efficiencies below that under the standard spectrum. Silicon exhibits the least spectral sensitivity: relative weekly site variation ranges from 1% in Lima, Peru to 14% in Edmonton, Canada.

energy yield↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temperature Coefficients of Perovskite Photovoltaics for Energy Yield Calculations

Temperature coefficients for maximum power (TPCE), open circuit voltage (VOC), and short circuit current (JSC) are standard specifications included in data sheets for any commercially available photovoltaic module. To date, there has been little work on determining the TPCE for perovskite photovoltaics (PV). We fabricate perovskite solar cells with a TPCE of -0.08 rel %/°C and then disentangle the temperature-dependent effects of the perovskite absorber, contact layers, and interfaces by comparing different device architectures and using drift-diffusion modeling. A main factor contributing to the small TPCE of perovskites is their low intrinsic carrier concentrations with respect to Si and GaAs, which can be explained by its wider band gap. In this work, we demonstrate that the unique increase in Eg with increasing temperatures seen for perovskites results in a reduction in JSC but positively influences VOC. The current limiting factors for the TPCE in perovskite PV are identified to originate from interfacial effects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2008

Thin Film Ceramic Strain Sensor Development for High Temperature Environments

The need for sensors to operate in harsh environments is illustrated by the need for measurements in the turbine engine hot section. The degradation and damage that develops over time in hot section components can lead to catastrophic failure. At present, the degradation processes that occur in the harsh hot section environment are poorly characterized, which hinders development of more durable components, and since it is so difficult to model turbine blade temperatures, strains, etc, actual measurements are needed. The need to consider ceramic sensing elements is brought about by the temperature limits of metal thin film sensors in harsh environments. The effort at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to develop high temperature thin film ceramic static strain gauges for application in turbine engines is described, first in the fan and compressor modules, and then in the hot section. The near-term goal of this research effort was to identify candidate thin film ceramic sensor materials and provide a list of possible thin film ceramic sensor materials and corresponding properties to test for viability. A thorough literature search was conducted for ceramics that have the potential for application as high temperature thin film strain gauges chemically and physically compatible with the NASA GRCs microfabrication procedures and substrate materials. Test results are given for tantalum, titanium and zirconium-based nitride and oxynitride ceramic films.

Wrbanek, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Crystalline-silicon reliability lessons for thin-film modules

The reliability of crystalline silicon modules has been brought to a high level with lifetimes approaching 20 years, and excellent industry credibility and user satisfaction. The transition from crystalline modules to thin film modules is comparable to the transition from discrete transistors to integrated circuits. New cell materials and monolithic structures will require new device processing techniques, but the package function and design will evolve to a lesser extent. Although there will be new encapsulants optimized to take advantage of the mechanical flexibility and low temperature processing features of thin films, the reliability and life degradation stresses and mechanisms will remain mostly unchanged. Key reliability technologies in common between crystalline and thin film modules include hot spot heating, galvanic and electrochemical corrosion, hail impact stresses, glass breakage, mechanical fatigue, photothermal degradation of encapsulants, operating temperature, moisture sorption, circuit design strategies, product safety issues, and the process required to achieve a reliable product from a laboratory prototype.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Spitzer Phase Curves of KELT-1b and the Signatures of Nightside Clouds in Thermal Phase Observations

We observed two full orbital phase curves of the transiting brown dwarf KELT-1b, at 3.6 and 4.5μm, using the Spitzer Space Telescope. Combined with previous eclipse data from Beatty et al., we strongly detect KELT-1b’s phase variation as a single sinusoid in both bands, with amplitudes of 964±36 ppm at 3.6μm and 979±54 ppm at 4.5μm, and confirm the secondary eclipse depths measured by Beatty et al. We also measure noticeable eastward hotspot offsets of 28°.4±3°.5 at 3.6μm and 18°.6±5°.2 at 4.5μm. Both the day–night temperature contrasts and the hotspot offsets we measure are in line with the trends seen in hot Jupiters, though we disagree with the recent suggestion of an offset trend by Zhang et al. Using an ensemble analysis of Spitzer phase curves, we argue that nightside clouds are playing a noticeable role in modulating the thermal emission from these objects, based on:(1)the lack of a clear trend in phase offsets with equilibrium temperature,(2)the sharp day–night transitions required to have non-negative intensity maps, which also resolves the inversion issues raised by Keating& Cowan,(3)the fact that all the nightsides of these objects appear to be at roughly the same temperature of1000 K, while the dayside temperatures increase linearly with equilibrium temperature, and(4)the trajectories of these objects on a Spitzer color–magnitude diagram, which suggest colors only explainable via nightside clouds.

Hot Jupitors↗

DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗