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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Data-driven fuel consumption estimation: A multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Providing guidance and information to drivers to help them make fuel-efficient route choices remains an important and effective strategy in the near term to reduce fuel consumption from the transportation sector. One key component in implementing this strategy is a fuel-consumption estimation model. In this paper, we developed a mesoscopic fuel consumption estimation model that can be implemented into an eco-routing system. Our proposed model presents a framework that utilizes large-scale, real-world driving data, clusters road links by free-flow speed and fits one statistical model for each of cluster. This model includes predicting variables that were rarely or never considered before, such as free-flow speed and number of lanes. We applied the model to a real-world driving data set based on a global positioning system travel survey in the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that the independent variables we chose influence the fuel consumption rates of vehicles. But the magnitude and direction of the influences are dependent on the type of road links, specifically free-flow speeds of links. Here, a statistical diagnostic is conducted to ensure the validity of the models and results. Although the real-world driving data we used to develop statistical relationships are specific to one region, the framework we developed can be easily adjusted and used to explore the fuel consumption relationship in other regions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A theoretical model study of observed correlations between whistler mode waves and energetic electron precipitation events in the magnetosphere

A recently extended test particle computer model of the gyroresonance wave-particle interaction in the magnetosphere is applied to previously reported cases of observed correlations between whistler mode waves and ionospheric responses to particle precipitation. Three different ionospheric effects, namely, X-ray bursts, photoemissions, and D region perturbations, all correlated with VLF waves and believed to be caused by precipitated particles, are considered. The precipitation flux level, the pulse shape, and the associated time delays are computed for the parameters relevant to each case and are compared with values deduced from the data. The results demonstrate that the existing theoretical model can be useful for interpreting experimental results of this kind. Furthermore, the model results and observations, used together, provide a basis for additional diagnostics of the various parameters of the cold and energetic particle distributions in the magnetosphere. For example, when applied to the observed photoemission case (Helliwell et al., 1980) the model results imply that the trapped energetic particle distribution function at the time could be modeled as proportional to E exp -n/2 with n about 3.5 to 6, where E is the particle energy.

Chang, H. C.↗

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

Strahan, Susan E.↗

Analytic solutions for Asay foil trajectories with implications for ejecta source models and mass measurements

We consider the trajectory of an Asay foil ejecta diagnostic for scenarios where ejecta are produced at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through a perfect vacuum to the sensor. We do so by building upon a previously established mathematical framework derived for the analytic study of stationary sensors. First, we derive the momentum conservation equation for the problem, in a form amenable to accelerating sensors, in terms of a generic ejecta source model. The result is an integrodifferential equation of motion for the foil trajectory. This equation yields an easily calculable closed-form implicit solution for the foil trajectory in instant-production scenarios. From there, we derive a boundary condition that particle velocity distributions must satisfy if their associated foil trajectories are to exhibit a smooth initial acceleration, as occurs in some experiments. This condition is identical to one derived previously from a consideration of piezoelectric voltage data obtained in similar experiments. We also compare techniques for inferring accumulated ejecta masses from foil trajectories, first by deriving the exact solution, and then by quantifying the error imposed by a frequently used approximate solution (both subject to the assumption of instantaneous ejecta production). Finally, we examine the common practice of presenting inferred cumulative ejecta masses as a function of implied ejecta velocity, establishing the conditions under which this methodology is most meaningful.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ENSO regulation of far- and mid-infrared contributions to clear-sky OLR

In this work, NASA Aqua-derived thermodynamic profiles, calculated spectral clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and vertical velocity fields from meteorological reanalyses are combined to determine the relative proportion of the far-infrared (FIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectral contributions to the total clear-sky OLR during different phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the ascending branch of the tropical circulation, the spatial variance of upper tropospheric water vapor is shown to be larger during La Niña than El Niño and is consistent with zonal symmetry changes in the tropical waveguide and associated tropical-extratropical mixing. In the descending branch, upper tropospheric water vapor shows weaker coupling to lower layers that is evidenced by changes in the ratio of FIR to MIR in the clear-sky OLR. Diagnostics from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model simulation are generally similar to satellite data, but the ratio of FIR to MIR is 5–10% larger with respect to dynamic regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of laser-produced carbon plasmas relevant to laboratory astrophysics

Experiments, analytic modeling, and numerical simulations are presented here to characterize carbon plasmas produced by high-intensity (10 9 -10 13 W cm -2 ) lasers relevant to experimental laboratory astrophysics. In the large-scale limit, the results agree well with a self-similar isentropic, adiabatic fluid model. Laser-target simulations, however, show small-scale structure in the velocity distribution of different ion species, which is also seen in experiments. These distributions indicate that most of the plasma energy resides in moderate charge states (C +3 –C +4 ), most of the mass resides in the lowest charge states, and the highest charge states move fastest.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Temporal structure of blobs in NSTX

The time dependence of the blob pulse shape and the waiting time between blobs was found using data from the gas puff imaging diagnostic in NSTX. The database used was of 103 shots from 2010 as described in a previous paper (Zweben et al., Phys. Plasmas 29, 012505 (2022).]. The blob pulse shape was well fit by an exponential rise and fall where the average rise time was τ r = 9.0 ± 2.7 μs and the average fall time was τ f = 16.6 ± 5.8 μs. The waiting times between blob pulses above a threshold of three times the mean had a broad distribution with an average of τ w = 1.2 ± 0.85 ms over the database. The blob intermittency parameter γ b = τ d /τ w , where the blob pulse duration was τ d = τ r + τ f , ranged from γ b ~1% to 5% for shots in this database and increased almost linearly with the blob fraction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Measurement of atomic oxygen densities using TALIF on a dielectric barrier discharge: insights into the volume above a micro cavity plasma array

Dielectric barrier discharges, particularly micro cavity plasma arrays, offer significant potential for plasma-catalytic research due to their ability to ignite plasma in direct contact with a catalytic surface, enabling the observation of plasma-surface interactions. A key factor in their application is the generation of reactive species, such as atomic oxygen, within the cavities. These species can interact with both the surface (e.g. for activation or cleaning) and the gas being treated (e.g. for oxidation). Given the central role of oxygen atoms in plasma catalysis and their use as a model for more complex species, this work investigates the transport of these atoms out of the cavities. Two-photon absorption laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy with picosecond laser excitation is performed in the volume above the cavities. The results are compared with a basic diffusion model. The reactor operates with a He/O 2 mixture at a flow rate of 1 slm and atmospheric pressure. Densities of up to 10 16 cm -3 are measured near the surface. Time-dependent measurements show that, at a distance of 350 µm from the surface, a density equilibrium is reached within less than 3 ms of reactor operation. Decay times due to ozone formation after the reactor is turned off are on a similar scale. Spatially resolved measurements show that the oxygen density decreases exponentially from the surface but remains detectable up to approximately 1 mm above the surface, indicating significant application potential. Variations in the O 2 admixture show a density maximum at 0.4%, confirming previous helium state enhanced actinometry measurements within the cavities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TriWaSp: a multi-faceted visible spectroscopy diagnostic on the ST40 tokamak

Here, we present a new state-of-the-art Triple Wavelength Spectrometer (TriWaSp), recently deployed on ST40, a high field low aspect ratio spherical tokamak. The TriWaSp has a range of possible applications due to its flexible design; the current configuration focuses on charge exchange recombination spectroscopy from carbon and neon impurities in the ST40 plasma. This paper discusses the detailed setup of the system and presents initial charge exchange ion temperature measurements using a single line of sight, which show good agreement with other ion temperature diagnostics. Building on these commissioning results and forward modelling of the system, a new observation geometry has been implemented for the next experimental campaign which will considerably improve the localisation of ion temperature and velocity profile measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

HIGH PRECISION K-SHELL PHOTOABSORPTION CROSS SECTIONS FOR ATOMIC OXYGEN: EXPERIMENT AND THEORY

Photoabsorption of atomic oxygen in the energy region below the 1s {sup -1} threshold in X-ray spectroscopy from Chandra and XMM-Newton is observed in a variety of X-ray binary spectra. Photoabsorption cross sections determined from an R-matrix method with pseudo-states and new, high precision measurements from the Advanced Light Source (ALS) are presented. High-resolution spectroscopy with E/{Delta}E Almost-Equal-To 4250 {+-} 400 was obtained for photon energies from 520 eV to 555 eV at an energy resolution of 124 {+-} 12 meV FWHM. K-shell photoabsorption cross section measurements were made with a re-analysis of previous experimental data on atomic oxygen at the ALS. Natural line widths {Gamma} are extracted for the 1s {sup -1}2s {sup 2}2p {sup 4}({sup 4} P)np {sup 3} P Degree-Sign and 1s {sup -1}2s {sup 2}2p {sup 4}({sup 2} P)np {sup 3} P Degree-Sign Rydberg resonances series and compared with theoretical predictions. Accurate cross sections and line widths are obtained for applications in X-ray astronomy. Excellent agreement between theory and the ALS measurements is shown which will have profound implications for the modeling of X-ray spectra and spectral diagnostics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Aging Mechanisms of Broad Area ~800 nm Laser Diodes

Here, this work presents a comprehensive study of early aging behavior (<500 hr) in ~800 nm, phosphide-based laser diodes grown by solid-source MBE with different oxygen concentration levels incorporated into the diode epitaxial layers during growth. The data indicate that lasing characteristics prior to aging are degraded by oxygen introduction, but the gradual power degradation rate after the onset of aging is not a strong function of oxygen at these concentration levels. Devices with oxygen concentrations of ~2.5 × 10 15 cm -3 showed significantly longer delay before the onset of aging (incubation time) than devices with less than 1 × 10 15 cm -3 oxygen. Generation-Recombination current and Laser Beam Induced Current measurements indicate that defect densities and aggregation are suppressed at the facets by oxygen, which can explain longer incubation times. Diagnostic data and parametric fits to diode simulation models show that increased cavity optical loss and defect density are primarily responsible for gradual power degradation during aging, rather than changes in nonradiative recombination. Mechanisms are proposed that explain this behavior, based on density functional theory (DFT) simulations and known recombination-enhanced defect generation phenomena.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Measurement of chromatic aberrations using phase retrieval

We explore the feasibility of measuring chromatic aberrations using a technique based on phase retrieval, primarily for the purpose of diagnostics on the OMEGA EP laser. A computational model and optimization strategy is described, issues of numerical efficiency are addressed, and the potential limitations of the method are studied using mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. As a result, the algorithm performs well in simulation and yields encouraging results in a small-scale laboratory experiment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fundamental studies on initiation and evolution of multi-channel discharges and their application to next generation pulsed power machines.

Future pulsed power systems may rely on linear transformer driver (LTD) technology. The LTD's will be the building blocks for a driver that can deliver higher current than the Z-Machine. The LTD's would require tens of thousands of low inductance ( %3C 85nH), high voltage (200 kV DC) switches with high reliability and long lifetime ( 10 4 shots). Sandia's Z-Machine employs 36 megavolt class switches that are laser triggered by a single channel discharge. This is feasible for tens of switches but the high inductance and short switch life- time associated with the single channel discharge are undesirable for future machines. Thus the fundamental problem is how to lower inductance and losses while increasing switch life- time and reliability. These goals can be achieved by increasing the number of current-carrying channels. The rail gap switch is ideal for this purpose. Although those switches have been extensively studied during the past decades, each effort has only characterized a particular switch. There is no comprehensive understanding of the underlying physics that would allow predictive capability for arbitrary switch geometry. We have studied rail gap switches via an extensive suite of advanced diagnostics in synergy with theoretical physics and advanced modeling capability. Design and topology of multichannel switches as they relate to discharge dynamics are investigated. This involves electrically and optically triggered rail gaps, as well as discrete multi-site switch concepts.

Schwarz, Jens↗

A Computationally Assisted Ar I Emission Line Ratio Technique to Infer Electron Energy Distribution and Determine Other Plasma Parameters in Pulsed Low-Temperature Plasma

In the post-transient stage of a 1-Torr pulsed argon discharge, a computationally assisted diagnostic technique is demonstrated for either inferring the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) if the metastable-atom density is known (i.e., measured) or quantitatively determining the metastable-atom density if the EEDF is known. This technique, which can be extended to be applicable to the initial and transient stages of the discharge, is based on the sensitivity of both emission line ratio values to metastable-atom density, on the EEDF, and on correlating the measurements of metastable-atom density, electron density, reduced electric field, and the ratio of emission line pairs (420.1–419.8 nm or 420.1–425.9 nm) for a given expression of the EEDF, as evidenced by the quantitative agreement between the observed emission line ratio and the predicted emission line ratio. Temporal measurement of electron density, metastable-atom density, and reduced electric field are then used to infer the transient behavior of the excitation rates describing electron-atom collision-induced excitation in the pulsed positive column. The changing nature of the EEDF, as it starts off being Druyvesteyn and becomes more Maxwellian later with the increasing electron density, is key to interpreting the correlation and explaining the temporal behavior of the emission line ratio in all stages of the discharge. Similar inferences of electron density and reduced electric field based on readily available diagnostic signatures may also be afforded by this model.

Franek, James B.↗

THE BINARY BLACK HOLE MODEL FOR MRK 231 BITES THE DUST

Mrk 231 is a nearby quasar with an unusually red near-UV-to-optical continuum, generally explained as heavy reddening by dust. Yan et al. proposed that Mrk 231 is a milliparsec black hole binary with little intrinsic reddening. We show that if the observed FUV continuum is intrinsic, as assumed by Yan et al., it fails by a factor of about 100 in powering the observed strength of the near-infrared emission lines and the thermal near and mid-infrared continuum. In contrast, the line and continuum strengths are typical for a reddened AGN spectral energy distribution (SED). We find that the He i*/P β ratio is sensitive to the SED for a one-zone model. If this sensitivity is maintained in general broadline region models, then this ratio may prove a useful diagnostic for heavily reddened quasars. Analysis of archival Hubble Space Telescope STIS and Faint Object Camera data revealed evidence that the far-UV continuum emission is resolved on size scales of ∼40 pc. The lack of broad absorption lines in the far-UV continuum might be explained if it were not coincident with the central engine. One possibility is that it is the central engine continuum reflected from the receding wind on the far side of the quasar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison of Solar Fine Structure Observed Simultaneously in Ly α and Mg ii h

The Chromospheric Lyman Alpha Spectropolarimeter (CLASP) observed the Sun in H i Ly α during a suborbital rocket flight on 2015 September 3. The Interface Region Imaging Telescope ( IRIS ) coordinated with the CLASP observations and recorded nearly simultaneous and co-spatial observations in the Mg ii h and k lines. The Mg ii h and Ly α lines are important transitions, energetically and diagnostically, in the chromosphere. The canonical solar atmosphere model predicts that these lines form in close proximity to each other and so we expect that the line profiles will exhibit similar variability. In this analysis, we present these coordinated observations and discuss how the two profiles compare over a region of quiet Sun at viewing angles that approach the limb. In addition to the observations, we synthesize both line profiles using a 3D radiation-MHD simulation. In the observations, we find that the peak width and the peak intensities are well correlated between the lines. For the simulation, we do not find the same relationship. We have attempted to mitigate the instrumental differences between IRIS and CLASP and to reproduce the instrumental factors in the synthetic profiles. The model indicates that formation heights of the lines differ in a somewhat regular fashion related to magnetic geometry. This variation explains to some degree the lack of correlation, observed and synthesized, between Mg ii and Ly α . Our analysis will aid in the definition of future observatories that aim to link dynamics in the chromosphere and transition region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗