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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Evaluation of current tropospheric mapping functions by Deep Space Network very long baseline interferometry

To compare the validity of current algorithms that map zenith tropospheric delay to arbitrary elevation angles, 10 different tropospheric mapping functions are used to analyze the current data base of Deep Space Network Mark 3 intercontinental very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) data. This analysis serves as a stringent test because of the high proportion of low-elevation observations necessitated by the extremely long baselines. Postfit delay and delay-rate residuals are examined, as well as the scatter of baseline lengths about the time-linear model that characterizes tectonic motion. Among the functions that utilize surface meteorological data as input parameters, the Lanyi 1984 mapping shows the best performance both for residuals and baselines, through the 1985 Davis function is statistically nearly identical. The next best performance is shown by the recent function of Niell, which is based on an examination of global atmospheric characteristics as a function of season and uses no weather data at the time of the measurements. The Niell function shows a slight improvement in residuals relative to Lanyi, but also an increase in baseline scatter that is significant for the California-Spain baseline. Two variants of the Chao mapping function, as well as the Chao tables used with the interpolation algorithm employed in the Orbit Determination Program software, show substandard behavior for both VLBI residuals and baseline scatter. The length of the California-Australia baseline (10,600 km) in the VLBI solution can vary by as much as 5 to 10 cm for the 10 mapping functions.

Sovers, O. J.↗

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗

Crystal mechanics-based thermo-elastic constitutive modeling of orthorhombic uranium using generalized spherical harmonics and first-order bounding theories

In earlier works, a mathematical procedure for invertible microstructure-property linkages was developed using computationally efficient spectral methods for polycrystalline cubic and hexagonal metals. This paper formulates such invertible microstructure–property linkages for orthorhombic polycrystalline metals relying on the generalized spherical harmonics (GSH) spectral basis. The procedure is used to compute property closures of orthorhombic polycrystals. The closures represent the complete set of theoretically possible combinations of effective properties for a selected material. The procedure relies on the first-order bounding theories and considers orientation distribution functions (ODFs) as the main microstructural descriptor influencing homogenized properties. Numerous examples of these closures involving second-rank thermal expansion and fourth-rank elastic stiffness tensorial properties over a broad range of temperatures are presented for α-uranium (α-U). In doing so, certain key properties of these closures are exploited to facilitate their computation with drastically reduced computational effort. Along with the recently developed GSH-based interpolation procedure for ODFs from coarsely spaced experimental measurement grids to finely spaced finite element mesh resolution grids presented in Barrett et al., the developed computationally efficient ODF-effective property linkages are used to establish a crystal mechanics-based simulation framework coupled with the finite element method (FEM). The ODF dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness tensors are efficiently calculated at every integration point and used by the FEM to predict the overall distortion of a hemispherical part made of α-U during heating. In conclusion, it is shown that the developed framework can be used to simulate microstructurally heterogeneous components under thermo-mechanical loadings in a computationally efficient manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On the precision of automated activation time estimation

We examined how the assignment of local activation times in epicardial and endocardial electrograms is affected by sampling rate, ambient signal-to-noise ratio, and sinx/x waveform interpolation. Algorithms used for the estimation of fiducial point locations included dV/dtmax, and a matched filter detection algorithm. Test signals included epicardial and endocardial electrograms overlying both normal and infarcted regions of dog myocardium. Signal-to-noise levels were adjusted by combining known data sets with white noise "colored" to match the spectral characteristics of experimentally recorded noise. For typical signal-to-noise ratios and sampling rates, the template-matching algorithm provided the greatest precision in reproducibly estimating fiducial point location, and sinx/x interpolation allowed for an additional significant improvement. With few restrictions, combining these two techniques may allow for use of digitization rates below the Nyquist rate without significant loss of precision.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Inner Radiation Belt Representation of the Energetic Electron Environment: Model and Data Synthesis Using the Salammbo Radiation Belt Transport Code and Los Alamos Geosynchronous and GPS Energetic Particle Data

The highly energetic electron environment in the inner magnetosphere (GEO inward) has received a lot of research attention in resent years, as the dynamics of relativistic electron acceleration and transport are not yet fully understood. These electrons can cause deep dielectric charging in any space hardware in the MEO to GEO region. We use a new and novel approach to obtain a global representation of the inner magnetospheric energetic electron environment, which can reproduce the absolute environment (flux) for any spacecraft orbit in that region to within a factor of 2 for the energy range of 100 KeV to 5 MeV electrons, for any levels of magnetospheric activity. We combine the extensive set of inner magnetospheric energetic electron observations available at Los Alamos with the physics based Salammbo transport code, using the data assimilation technique of "nudging". This in effect input in-situ data into the code and allows the diffusion mechanisms in the code to interpolate the data into regions and times of no data availability. We present here details of the methods used, both in the data assimilation process and in the necessary inter-calibration of the input data used. We will present sample runs of the model/data code and compare the results to test spacecraft data not used in the data assimilation process.

Friedel, R. H. W.↗

A scalable framework for efficient coupling of thermal and microstructural simulations in additive manufacturing

Predicting microstructure evolution in metal additive manufacturing (AM) is important for process optimization, but spatiotemporal scale disparities between thermal transport and microstructure evolution create significant challenges for efficient data transfer between simulation codes. To address this, we present Stork, a scalable framework for coupling thermal and microstructural simulations. Stork uses a sparse data representation to identify and store active solidification sub-volumes, enabling highly parallel quad-linear interpolation from coarse thermal grids to fine microstructure grids without large intermediate storage. We demonstrate the framework by coupling the semi-analytic heat transfer code 3DThesis with the time-parallel cellular automata code Toucan. This approach achieves over two orders of magnitude reduction in data generation time and file size compared to prior workflows. Numerical studies show that quad-linear interpolation preserves grain morphology and crystallographic texture in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) simulations for coarsening ratios up to 16. Overall, Stork provides a scalable pathway for high-throughput, component-scale AM simulations on modern high-performance computing systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring Gradient-Based Multi-directional Controls in GANs

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been widely applied in modeling diverse image distributions. However, despite its impressive applications, the structure of the latent space in GANs largely remains as a black-box, leaving its controllable generation an open problem, especially when spurious correlations between different semantic attributes exist in the image distributions. To address this problem, previous methods typically learn linear directions or individual channels that control semantic attributes in the image space. However, they often suffer from imperfect disentanglement, or are unable to obtain multi-directional controls. Furthermore, in this work, in light of the above challenges, we propose a novel approach that discovers nonlinear controls, which enables multi-directional manipulation as well as effective disentanglement, based on gradient information in the learned GAN latent space. More specifically, we first learn interpolation directions by following the gradients from classification networks trained separately on the attributes, and then navigate the latent space by exclusively controlling channels activated for the target attribute in the learned directions. Empirically, with small training data, our approach is able to gain fine-grained controls over a diverse set of bi-directional and multi-directional attributes, and we showcase its ability to achieve disentanglement significantly better than state-of-the-art methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fuzzy spheres in stringy matrix models: quantifying chaos in a mixed phase space

We consider a truncation of the BMN matrix model to a configuration of two fuzzy spheres, described by two coupled non-linear oscillators dependent on the mass parameter μ. The classical phase diagram of the system generically (μ ≠ 0) contains three equilibrium points: two centers and a center-saddle; as μ → 0 the system exhibits a pitchfork bifurcation. We demonstrate that the system is exactly integrable in quadratures for μ = 0, while for very large values of μ, it approaches another integrable point characterized by two harmonic oscillators. The classical phase space is mixed, containing both integrable islands and chaotic regions, as evidenced by the classical Lyapunov spectrum. At the quantum level, we explore indicators of early and late time chaos. The eigenvalue spacing is best described by a Brody distribution, which interpolates between Poisson and Wigner distributions; it dovetails, at the quantum level, the classical results and reemphasizes the notion that the quantum system is mixed. We also study the spectral form factor and the quantum Lyapunov exponent, as defined by out-of-time-ordered correlators. These two indicators of quantum chaos exhibit weak correlations with the Brody distribution. We speculate that the behavior of the system as μ → 0 dominates the spectral form factor and the quantum Lyapunov exponent, making these indicators of quantum chaos less effective in the context of a mixed phase space.

AdS-CFT correspondence↗

SHARP simulation of discontinuities in highly convective steady flow

For steady multidimesional convection, the Quadratic Upstream Interpolation for Convective Kinematics (QUICK) scheme has several attractive properties. However, for highly convective simulation of step profiles, QUICK produces unphysical overshoots and a few oscillations, and this may cause serious problems in nonlinear flows. Fortunately, it is possible to modify the convective flux by writing the normalized convected control-volume face value as a function of the normalized adjacent upstream node value, developing criteria for monotonic resolution without sacrificing formal accuracy. This results in a nonlinear functional relationship between the normalized variables, whereas standard methods are all linear in this sense. The resulting Simple High Accuracy Resolution Program (SHARP) can be applied to steady multidimensional flows containing thin shear or mixing layers, shock waves, and other frontal phenomena. This represents a significant advance in modeling highly convective flows of engineering and geophysical importance. SHARP is based on an explicit, conservative, control-volume flux formation, equally applicable to one, two, or three dimensional elliptic, parabolic, hyperbolic, or mixed-flow regimes. Results are given for the bench-mark purely convective first-order results and the nonmonotonic predictions of second- and third-order upwinding.

Leonard, B. P.↗

Cloud Atlas: Rotational Modulations in the L/T Transition Brown Dwarf Companion HN Peg B

Time-resolved observations of brown dwarfs' rotational modulations provide powerful insights into the properties of condensate clouds in ultra-cool atmospheres. Multi-wavelength light curves reveal cloud vertical structures, condensate particle sizes, and cloud morphology, which directly constrain condensate cloud and atmospheric circulation models. We report results from Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) near-infrared G141 taken in six consecutive orbits observations of HNPeg B, an L/T transition brown dwarf companion to a G0V type star. The best-fit sine wave to the 1.1 to 1.7 micron broadband light curve has the amplitude of and period of hour. The modulation amplitude has no detectable wavelength dependence except in the 1.4 micron water absorption band, indicating that the characteristic condensate particle sizes are large (greater than 1 micron). We detect significantly (4.4 sigma) lower modulation amplitude in the 1.4 micron water absorption band, and find that HN Peg B's spectral modulation resembles those of early T type brown dwarfs. We also describe a new empirical interpolation method to remove spectral contamination from the bright host star. This method may be applied in other high-contrast time-resolved observations with WFC3.

brown dwarf↗

Aeroelastic Calculations of Quiet High- Speed Fan Performed

An advanced high-speed fan was recently designed under a cooperative effort between the NASA Glenn Research Center and Honeywell Engines & Systems. The principal design goals were to improve performance and to reduce fan noise at takeoff. Scale models of the Quiet High-Speed Fan were tested for operability, performance, and acoustics. During testing, the fan showed significantly improved noise characteristics, but a self-excited aeroelastic vibration known as flutter was encountered in the operating range. Flutter calculations were carried out for the Quiet High-Speed Fan using a three-dimensional, unsteady aerodynamic, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbomachinery code named "TURBO." The TURBO code can accurately model the viscous flow effects that can play an important role in various aeroelastic problems such as flutter with flow separation, flutter at high loading conditions near the stall line (stall flutter), and flutter in the presence of shock and boundary-layer interaction. Initially, calculations were performed with no blade vibrations. These calculations were at a constant rotational speed and a varying mass flow rate. The mass flow rate was varied by changing the backpressure at the exit boundary of the computational domain. These initial steady calculations were followed by aeroelastic calculations in which the blades were prescribed to vibrate harmonically in a natural mode, at a natural frequency, and with a fixed interblade phase angle between adjacent blades. The AE-prep preprocessor was used to interpolate the in-vacuum mode shapes from the structural dynamics mesh onto the computational fluid dynamics mesh and to smoothly propagate the grid deformations from the blade surface to the interior points of the grid. The aeroelastic calculations provided the unsteady aerodynamic forces on the blade surface due to blade vibrations. These forces were vector multiplied with the structural dynamic mode shape to calculate the work done on the blade during one vibration period, then this result was converted to an aerodynamic damping. Flutter occurs when the aerodynamic damping becomes negative, if structural damping is ignored. The results of these aeroelastic calculations are summarized in this plot of aerodynamic damping versus mass flow rate at a constant rotational speed. As the backpressure is increased, the mass flow rate through the fan decreases and the fan operating point moves towards the stall line. The aeroelastic calculations showed that the aerodynamic damping decreases as the stall line is approached, as observed during testing. In addition, the aeroelastic calculations with the TURBO code correctly predicted the aeroelastic parameters: the most unstable vibration mode and interblade phase angle, as observed during testing. The Quiet High-Speed Fan demonstrated significant noise reductions during testing, but flutter imposed limits on its operating range. The accurate calculation of the aeroelastic characteristics using the TURBO code is a significant step toward eliminating flutter from the operating range and toward realizing the benefits of reduced fan noise. The aeroelastic calculations described here were performed under a grant by University of Toledo researchers in collaboration with Glenn's researchers.

Bakhle, Milind A.↗

Extension of the Time-Spectral Approach to Overset Solvers for Arbitrary Motion

Forced periodic flows arise in a broad range of aerodynamic applications such as rotorcraft, turbomachinery, and flapping wing configurations. Standard practice involves solving the unsteady flow equations forward in time until the initial transient exits the domain and a statistically stationary flow is achieved. It is often required to simulate through several periods to remove the initial transient making unsteady design optimization prohibitively expensive for most realistic problems. An effort to reduce the computational cost of these calculations led to the development of the Harmonic Balance method [1, 2] which capitalizes on the periodic nature of the solution. The approach exploits the fact that forced temporally periodic flow, while varying in the time domain, is invariant in the frequency domain. Expanding the temporal variation at each spatial node into a Fourier series transforms the unsteady governing equations into a steady set of equations in integer harmonics that can be tackled with the acceleration techniques afforded to steady-state flow solvers. Other similar approaches, such as the Nonlinear Frequency Domain [3,4,5], Reduced Frequency [6] and Time-Spectral [7, 8, 9] methods, were developed shortly thereafter. Additionally, adjoint-based optimization techniques can be applied [10, 11] as well as frequency-adaptive methods [12, 13, 14] to provide even more flexibility to the method. The Fourier temporal basis functions imply spectral convergence as the number of harmonic modes, and correspondingly number of time samples, N, is increased. Some elect to solve the equations in the frequency domain directly, while others choose to transform the equations back into the time domain to simplify the process of adding this capability to existing solvers, but each harnesses the underlying steady solution in the frequency domain. These temporal projection methods will herein be collectively referred to as Time-Spectral methods. Time-Spectral methods have demonstrated marked success in reducing the computational costs associated with simulating periodic forced flows, but have yet to be fully applied to overset or Cartesian solvers for arbitrary motion with dynamic hole-cutting. Overset and Cartesian grid methodologies are versatile techniques capable of handling complex geometry configurations in practical engineering applications, and the combination of the Time-Spectral approach with this general capability potentially provides an enabling new design and analysis tool. In an arbitrary moving-body scenario for these approaches, a Lagrangian body moves through a fixed Eulerian mesh and mesh points in the Eulerian mesh interior to the solid body are removed (cut or blanked), leaving a hole in the Eulerian mesh. During the dynamic motion some gridpoints in the domain are blanked and do not have a complete set of time-samples preventing a direct implementation of the Time-Spectral method. Murman[6] demonstrated the Time-Spectral approach for a Cartesian solver with a rigid domain motion, wherein the hole cutting remains constant. Similarly, Custer et al. [15, 16] used the NASA overset OVERFLOW solver and limited the amount of relative motion to ensure static hole-cutting and interpolation. Recently, Mavriplis and Mundis[17] demonstrated a qualitative method for applying the Time-Spectral approach to an unstructured overset solver for arbitrary motion. The goal of the current work is to develop a robust and general method for handling arbitrary motion with the Time-Spectral approach within an overset or Cartesian mesh method, while still approaching the spectral convergence rate of the original Time-Spectral approach. The viscous OVERFLOW solver will be augmented with the new Time-Spectral algorithm and the capability of the method for benchmark problems in rotorcraft and turbomachinery will be demonstrated. This abstract begins with a brief synopsis of the Time-Spectral approach for overset grids and provides details of e current approach to allow for arbitrary motion. Model problem results in one and two dimensions are included to demonstrate the viability of the method and the convergence properties. Section IV briefly outlines the implementation into the OVERFLOW solver, and the abstract closes with a description of the benchmark test cases which will be included in the final paper.

Leffell, Joshua Isaac↗

BPS Wilson loop in $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 superconformal SU(N) “orientifold” gauge theory and weak-strong coupling interpolation

We consider the expectation value \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) of the circular BPS Wilson loop in \( \mathcal{N} \) = 2 superconformal SU( N ) gauge theory containing a vector multiplet coupled to two hypermultiplets in rank-2 symmetric and antisymmetric representations. This theory admits a regular large N expansion, is planar-equivalent to \( \mathcal{N} \) = 4 SYM theory and is expected to be dual to a certain orbifold/orientifold projection of AdS 5 × S 5 superstring theory. On the string theory side \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) is represented by the path integral expanded near the same AdS 2 minimal surface as in the maximally supersymmetric case. Following the string theory argument in [5], we suggest that as in the \( \mathcal{N} \) = 4 SYM case and in the \( \mathcal{N} \) = 2 SU( N ) × SU( N ) superconformal quiver theory discussed in [19], the coefficient of the leading non-planar 1/ N 2 correction in \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) should have the universal λ 3/2 scaling at large ’t Hooft coupling. We confirm this prediction by starting with the localization matrix model representation for \( \left\langle \mathcal{W}\right\rangle \) . We complement the analytic derivation of the λ 3/2 scaling by a numerical high-precision resummation and extrapolation of the weak-coupling expansion using conformal mapping improved Padé analysis.

1/N Expansion↗

DownScaleBench for developing and applying a deep learning based urban climate downscaling- first results for high-resolution urban precipitation climatology over Austin, Texas

Abstract Cities need climate information to develop resilient infrastructure and for adaptation decisions. The information desired is at the order of magnitudes finer scales relative to what is typically available from climate analysis and future projections. Urban downscaling refers to developing such climate information at the city (order of 1 – 10 km) and neighborhood (order of 0.1 – 1 km) resolutions from coarser climate products. Developing these higher resolution (finer grid spacing) data needed for assessments typically covering multiyear climatology of past data and future projections is complex and computationally expensive for traditional physics-based dynamical models. In this study, we develop and adopt a novel approach for urban downscaling by generating a general-purpose operator using deep learning. This ‘DownScaleBench’ tool can aid the process of downscaling to any location. The DownScaleBench has been generalized for both in situ (ground- based) and satellite or reanalysis gridded data. The algorithm employs an iterative super-resolution convolutional neural network (Iterative SRCNN) over the city. We apply this for the development of a high-resolution gridded precipitation product (300 m) from a relatively coarse (10 km) satellite-based product (JAXA GsMAP). The high-resolution gridded precipitation datasets is compared against insitu observations for past heavy rain events over Austin, Texas, and shows marked improvement relative to the coarser datasets relative to cubic interpolation as a baseline. The creation of this Downscaling Bench has implications for generating high-resolution gridded urban meteorological datasets and aiding the planning process for climate-ready cities.

Singh, Manmeet (ORCID:0000000233747149)↗

Adaptation of a Fast Optimal Interpolation Algorithm to the Mapping of Oceangraphic Data

A fast, recently developed, multiscale optimal interpolation algorithm has been adapted to the mapping of hydrographic and other oceanographic data. This algorithm produces solution and error estimates which are consistent with those obtained from exact least squares methods, but at a small fraction of the computational cost. Problems whose solution would be completely impractical using exact least squares, that is, problems with tens or hundreds of thousands of measurements and estimation grid points, can easily be solved on a small workstation using the multiscale algorithm. In contrast to methods previously proposed for solving large least squares problems, our approach provides estimation error statistics while permitting long-range correlations, using all measurements, and permitting arbitrary measurement locations. The multiscale algorithm itself, published elsewhere, is not the focus of this paper. However, the algorithm requires statistical models having a very particular multiscale structure; it is the development of a class of multiscale statistical models, appropriate for oceanographic mapping problems, with which we concern ourselves in this paper. The approach is illustrated by mapping temperature in the northeastern Pacific. The number of hydrographic stations is kept deliberately small to show that multiscale and exact least squares results are comparable. A portion of the data were not used in the analysis; these data serve to test the multiscale estimates. A major advantage of the present approach is the ability to repeat the estimation procedure a large number of times for sensitivity studies, parameter estimation, and model testing. We have made available by anonymous Ftp a set of MATLAB-callable routines which implement the multiscale algorithm and the statistical models developed in this paper.

Menemenlis, Dimitris↗

Continuum gyrokinetic simulations of edge plasmas in single-null geometries

The first continuum gyrokinetic calculations of electrostatic ion scale turbulence are presented for the case of a diverted tokamak geometry. The simulation model solves the long-wavelength limit of the full-F gyrokinetic equation for ion species coupled to the quasi-neutrality equation for electrostatic potential variations, where a fluid model is used for an electron response. Furthermore, in order to facilitate simulations of highly-anisotropic microturbulence in the presence of strong magnetic shear and a magnetic X-point, a numerical algorithm utilizing a locally field-aligned multiblock coordinate system has been developed and implemented in the 5D finite-volume code COGENT. In this approach, the toroidal direction is divided into blocks, such that within each block, the cells are field-aligned and a non-matching grid interface is allowed at block boundaries. The toroidal angle corresponds to the “coarse” field-aligned coordinate, whereas the poloidal cross section, comprised of the radial and poloidal directions, is finely gridded to resolve short-scale perpendicular turbulence structures and to support accurate re-mapping (interpolation) at block boundaries. The 5D simulations explore cross-separatrix ion scale turbulence in the presence of a self-consistent radial electric field and address the effects of magnetic-shear stabilization in the X-point region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Engineering specification and system design for CAD/CAM of custom shoes. Phase 5: UMC involvement (January 1, 1989 - June 30, 1989)

The CAD/CAM of custom shoes is discussed. The solid object for machining is represented by a wireframe model with its nodes or vertices specified systematically in a grid pattern covering its entire length (point-to-point configuration). Two sets of data from CENCIT and CYBERWARE were used for machining purposes. It was found that the indexing technique (turning the stock by a small angle then moving the tool on a longitudinal path along the foot) yields the best result in terms of ease of programming, savings in wear and tear of the machine and cutting tools, and resolution of fine surface details. The work done using the LASTMOD last design system results in a shoe last specified by a number of congruent surface patches of different sizes. This data format was converted into a form amenable to the machine tool. It involves a series of sorting algorithms and interpolation algorithms to provide the grid pattern that the machine tool needs as was the case in the point to point configuration discussed above. This report also contains an in-depth treatment of the design and production technique of an integrated sole to complement the task of design and manufacture of the shoe last. Clinical data and essential production parameters are discussed. Examples of soles made through this process are given.

Bao, Han P.↗

The Spatial Distribution of Forest Biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: A Comparison of Estimates

The amount of carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of deforestation is determined, in part, by the amount of carbon held in the biomass of the forests converted to other uses. Uncertainty in forest biomass is responsible for much of the uncertainty in current estimates of the flux of carbon from land-use change. We compared several estimates of forest biomass for the Brazilian Amazon, based on spatial interpolations of direct measurements, relationships to climatic variables, and remote sensing data. We asked three questions. First, do the methods yield similar estimates? Second, do they yield similar spatial patterns of distribution of biomass? And, third, what factors need most attention if we are to predict more accurately the distribution of forest biomass over large areas? Amazonian forests (including dead and below-ground biomass) vary by more than a factor of two, from a low of 39 PgC to a high of 93 PgC. Furthermore, the estimates disagree as to the regions of high and low biomass. The lack of agreement among estimates confirms the need for reliable determination of aboveground biomass over large areas. Potential methods include direct measurement of biomass through forest inventories with improved allometric regression equations, dynamic modeling of forest recovery following observed stand-replacing disturbances (the approach used in this research), and estimation of aboveground biomass from airborne or satellite-based instruments sensitive to the vertical structure plant canopies.

Houghton, R. A.↗